notes

Assessing Vulnerability to
Climate Change in India
Architesh Panda

The impact of climate change on

the lives and livelihoods of people
in India is now widely recognised.
Yet, there is neither a consensus
on the definition of vulnerability
to climate change nor a full,
regionally-nuanced mapping of
the variable impact of such a
change. It is only when a better
understanding of what constitutes
vulnerability to climate change
and what its region-specific
impact would be is available that
proper adaptation strategies can
be worked out.

My sincere thanks to S S Arvind for his

valuable comments and suggestions.
Architesh Panda (architesh@gmail.com) is
pursuing his doctoral studies at the Institute
for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.

he Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) in its fourth
assessment report observed that
the earths climate system, when compared with the pre-industrial era, has
demonstrably changed at both global and
regional scale. Further the report notes
that the global mean temperature may
increase anywhere between 1.4 and 5.8
degree celsius by 2100. This unprecedented
increase is expected to have severe impacts on various aspects of the climate
system including changes in the global
hydrological system, sea level increase
and changes in crop production.
A countrys vulnerability to climate change
is decided by the presence of appropriate
mitigation and adaptation options. It is
now widely recognised that developing
countries are particularly vulnerable to the
impact of climate variability and change
specially when compared to developed
countries. This is because in developing
countries ecological environments are fragile, the susceptibility of economic systems
to risks is high and the low income levels of
most citizens constrain their ability to cope.
The initial circumstances of each country in
terms of its climatic conditions, socio-economic setting and growth prospects will
also partly determine the scale of the social,
economic and environmental impacts of
climate change (Stern 2007).
Climate change is likely to impact all
the natural ecosystems as well as socioeconomic systems in India as shown by the
National Communication Report of India
to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). Different
sectors like water resources, forests, agriculture, and coastal zones are projected to
have several potential impacts. It will
bring changes in hydrological cycles, rainfall as well as the magnitude and timing of
its run-off. However, the distribution of
the incidences of climate change will also

Economic & Political Weekly EPW april 18, 2009 vol xliv no 16

vary within the geography encompassed

by India. Some sectors and regions in India are considered highly susceptible to
current climate variability and the projected impacts of climate change.
To minimise the potential harm associated with global changes, people and places
need an assessment of vulnerability of
the human-environment systems in which
they live, associated adaptation opportunities and constraints. However, the field of
vulnerability assessment to climate change
is fragmented. Much debate remains inconclusive around how to characterise vulnerability. This article attempts to assess
the work on vulnerability to climate
change, with particular reference to India.

Vulnerability: Different Meanings

Within the field of climate change, the
reports of the IPCC have become the most
authoritative source which act as a legitimising device for research. IPCCs fourth
assessment report defines vulnerability as
the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse
effects of climate change, including
climate variability and extremes.
However, this concept of vulnerability
has been criticised for not taking into account the richness and diversity of findings
on the causes and consequences of vulnerability to climate change and climate risks
(Adger 2006). For example, IPCC argues
that developing countries are most vulnerable to climate change because of their lack
of institutional capacity to cope. At the
same time there is evidence from regions
like the Sahel suggesting that communities
and countries have, within their local
knowledges and experiences, a latent capacity to adapt to variability. Despite criticisms, the IPCCs conceptualisation of vulnerability has been widely accepted and
followed in climate change research.
Vulnerability is a multidimensional
concept associated with different conceptualisations and there remains a high degree
of uncertainty in its measurement and
classification. This concept has been used by
various research communities in different
ways based on the objectives to be achieved
and the methodologies employed. These
differences limit the possibility of having

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notes

a universally accepted definition of vulnerability. The ordinary use of the word

vulnerability refers to the capacity to be
wounded, i e, the degree to which a system is likely to experience harm due to
exposure to a hazard. Historically, the
concept was introduced as a response to a
purely hazard-oriented perception of disaster risk in the 1970s. These risk-hazard
approaches to understanding vulnerability
have evolved from the extensive natural
hazards literature in geography. This approach incorporates mainly physical elements of exposure of a unit and the probability and impacts of hazards.
However, the main criticism against this
approach has been the failure to engage
with the political and structural causes of
vulnerability within society. This latter is
the building block of vulnerability analysis in the political-economic tradition well
represented in the works of Adger, including his work on the vulnerability of coastal
Vietnam to climate change (Adger 1999).
The political-economy perspectives on vul
nerability emphasise the socio-political,
cultural and economic factors that together
explain the differential exposure to hazards, differential impacts and differential
capacities to cope with hazards.
Another important conceptualisation
of vulnerability can be found in the wellknown pressure and release model (Blaikie
et al 1994) where physical hazards represent one pressure and characteristic of
vulnerability, but there are other pressures like local geography and social differentiation which together create the
disaster. This approach successfully captures the essence of both the physical hazards as well as the political-economy perspectives on vulnerability. However, this
model fails to explain the mechanisms
and processes of vulnerability.
Building from its origin in disasters and
hazards, there is an emerging synthesis of
systems-oriented research attempting to
understand vulnerability in a holistic manner
situated within natural and social systems.
An important advance in this is by Turner
et al (2003) in their coupled vulnerability
framework. This definition, more an analytical framework, seeks to analyse the elements of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity
and resilience) of a bounded system at
a particular spatial scale. Despite these

106

advances in understanding and defining

the concept of vulnerability, there is yet no
universally acceptable definition. One of
the better known definitions was formulated by the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR 2004), which defined vulnerability as the conditions determined by physical, social, economic and
environmental factors or processes, which
increase the susceptibility of a community
to the impacts of hazard.
In a recent paper Ionescu et al (2005) has
developed a formal framework of defining
and studying vulnerability to climate
change. He has argued that for meaningful statements about the notion of vulnerability the analyst must clearly specify
three primitives (i) the entity that is vulner
able, (ii) the stimulus to which it is vulnerable, and (iii) the preference criteria to evaluate the outcome of concern for the entity.
Looking at the diversity of studies on
vulnerability to climate change and the
contending definitions, a challenging task
lies ahead to develop a common conceptual framework to assess vulnerability to
climate change.

Vulnerabilities in India
Among the most significant potential impacts of climate change on India are
changes in the monsoon pattern. Several
studies have shown that in general, the
mean monsoon intensity and variability is
expected to increase (Ashrit et al 2001;
Chung et al 2006; Kumar et al 2006).
However, each study arrives at this conclusion through different modellings and
is not necessarily specific about how much
the monsoon will increase. A 20% rise in
all-India summer monsoon rainfall and
further rise in total rainfall is projected
over all the states, except Punjab, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu which shows a slight
decrease (Kumar et al 2006). Thus, climate
change is likely to increase the variability
and uncertainty in monsoon patterns.
Agriculture and allied activities provide
employment to two-thirds of Indias total
workforce and contribute nearly 20% of the
countrys gross domestic product. However,
Indian agriculture continues to be fundamentally dependent on weather which
makes it sensitive to climate-induced effects.
Any changes in the climatic factors like
temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide

concentration, changes in the soil moisture

will affect Indian agriculture. The productivity of different crops will be affected.
Rice and wheat yields could decline considerably due to climatic changes (IPCC
1996; 2001). Kumar and Parikh (1998) show
that economic impacts would be significant
even after accounting for farm-level adaptation. The loss in net revenue at the farm
level is estimated to range between 9% and
25% for a temperature rise of 2C to 3.5C.
Sanghi, Mendelssohn and Dinar (1998)
attempt to also incorporate adaptation
options while estimating agricultural
impacts. They calculate that a 2C rise in
mean temperature and a 7% increase in
mean precipitation would reduce net revenues by 12.3% for the country as a whole.
Agriculture in the coastal regions of
Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka is
found to be the most negatively affected.
Small losses are also indicated for the
major foodgrain producing regions of
Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar
Pradesh. This means agricultural production will be affected and food security can
be adversely impacted, particularly among
small farmers and rural populations. On
the other hand, West Bengal, Orissa and
Andhra Pradesh are predicted to benefit
to a small extent from warming.
Besides agriculture, the available evi
dences on climate change shows that it will
also affect the occurrences of climate extremes like cyclones, droughts and floods in
India. There has been no change in either the
increase of strength or frequency of cyclones
since 1980s (Kumar et al 2003). Various global circulation models (GCMs) have given
contradictory predictions about the impacts
of climate change on cyclones and it is not
certain what can be expected. Yet it is possible that warmer sea surface temperatures
may increase the frequency and/or intensity
of cyclones in the Indian Ocean region.
Significant portions of Indias landmass
near the coastline is at sea-level or only a few
metres higher. These areas also have some
of the highest population densities. The IPCC
(2007) has projected a mean sea-level rise
of 0.18 to 0.59m by 2090, relative to the
1980-1999 level. If these predictions are
proved correct, it can impact Indias coastal
population through increased flooding of
low-lying areas and loss of crop yields from
inundation and salinisation of fresh water

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notes

sources. Under a range of climate change

scenarios, the frequency and intensity of
extreme precipitation events are expected
to increase. This will put many more millions of people at risk due to flooding associated with extreme precipitation impacting both their lives and livelihoods. Klein
et al (2006) have noted an increase in the
number of extreme precipitation events
throughout southern India and its northwest coast for the period of 1960-2001.
Seasonal monsoon rainfall has increased
up to 10% along the west coast, north
Andhra Pradesh and north-west India (Kumar et al 1992). On the other hand, a decrease in monsoon rainfall of around 8%
and an increase in drought events have
been observed for east-Madhya Pradesh
and the adjoining areas, north-east India,
parts of Gujarat and Kerala (Klein et al
2006; Kumar et al 1992). Gosain et al
(2006) project water shortages throughout
Kutch, Saurastra, Mahi, Pennar, Sabarmati
and Tapi river basins.
Climate change will also put millions
more at the risk of vector borne diseases.
Projections show that the incidence of
malaria will increase. Bhattacharya et al
(2006) have projected that the duration of
the malaria transmission window is likely
to widen in northern and western states
and shorten in the southern states of India
under climate change conditions in the
2050s. Given weak public heath infrastructure, this implies increased healthcare spending and decreased standard of
living, specially for the poor.

Vulnerability Studies in India

Studies on vulnerability to climate change
in India are still limited. Indias initial
national communication to the UNFCC has
already highlighted the fact that agricultural yields, fresh water availability, natural
ecosystems and coastal areas are vulnerable
to the impacts of climate change. The study
by O Brien et al (2004) developed vulnerability profiles to climate change and globalisation by assessing each regions adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure to
stressors. The authors found that the IndoGangetic plain, except Bihar, has the highest
degree of adaptive capacity. The states of
Bihar, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana,
Madhya Pradesh, Maharatra, Andhra
Pradesh and Karnataka have the lowest

adaptive capacity. The areas of greatest

climate sensitiv ity are Rajasthan, Madhya
Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh using current
climatological data. Under the HadRM2
model, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and
Maharastra are seen to be even more sensitive to climate change situations. In another
study Brenkert and Malone (2005) show
that in contrast to inland states, all coastal
states in India are highly vulnerable, especially Goa. For the latter, it is reported that
over 7% of the population would be affected
by one metre sea level rise.
Even though, these studies have laid the
ground for understanding vulnerability to
climate change in India, they have perhaps paid less attention to the ground
realities of the vulnerable people. Looking
at this may help develop adaptive capacities of the people to deal with the risks of
climate change in India.

The Road Ahead

Despite considerable advances in the
methodologies for assessing vulnerability to
climate change, ambiguities and uncertainties still remain. Vulnerability research is facing challenges in three areas. First, climate
change is not the only stress that society
faces, multiple stressors operate in all the
human-environment systems. It is, therefore, a challenging task for researchers to
identify and evaluate those stressors most
relevant for assessing climate change vulnerability. Second, vulnerability assessment
requires characterisation of the future in
terms of socio-economic and bio-physical
variables. However, uncertainties about the
future make vulnerability assessment that
much more difficult and challenging. Third,
the apparent lack of consistency in the use
and meaning of the variety of concepts employed in vulnerability research contributes
to increasing confusion in this area.
Research in India on vulnerability to
climate change is still underdeveloped.
Further research is urgently required in
several areas. This research has to base
itself on an understanding of the regional
and micro level aspects of climate change
to properly address the vulnerability of
people with more accuracy.
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