Slope Stability 2013 P.M.

Dight (ed)
2013 Australian Centre for Geomechanics, Perth, ISBN 978-0-9870937-5-2

B-M. Stckel Luossavaara-Kirunavaara AB, Sweden

K. Mkitaavola Luossavaara-Kirunavaara AB, Sweden
J. Sjberg Itasca Consultants AB, Sweden

Mining using large scale underground sublevel caving results in caving of the surrounding host rock and
mining-induced ground surface deformations. These effects are most prominent on the hangingwall side,
but also develop to some extent on the footwall side of an orebody mined with caving methods. This
situation is, in many respects, similar to that of large scale slopes, albeit with the addition of the caved rock.
The problem issues are particularly similar for the case when underground mining commences below an
existing open pit. The Luossavaara-Kirunavaara AB (LKAB) Kiruna Mine is a case in point, in which
underground sublevel caving commenced in the 1960s, following open pit mining that had been on-going
since the late 19th century. The mine is in close proximity to the city of Kiruna, which has resulted in a
continuous urban transformation of the Kiruna municipality for almost a century. The LKAB industrial area is
also strongly affected. With deepened mining, the effects on the ground surface are becoming larger and
the demands on monitoring and prediction are larger than ever today. This paper presents a status report
concerning large scale slope stability in cave mining and the effects on the surroundings, including currently
on-going rock mechanical activities within this subject area. Ground deformations are currently being
monitored using Global Positioning System (GPS) techniques on fixed measurement hubs, with
measurements taken quarterly of strategically important hubs and annually on all installed hubs (today
around 450). LKAB has an on-going research and development project on the use of radar remote sensing
(InSAR techniques) for ground deformation monitoring. The advantages of the InSAR techniques are that:
(i) measurements have high spatial density, (ii) monitoring occurs more frequently with reduced manpower
(currently every 24th day with the Radarsat-2 satellite), and (iii) the need of fixed measurement hubs is
eliminated. The theoretical precision is very high but there are issues regarding measurements at high
latitudes (snow-covered ground, etc.), which are currently being investigated. The paper also describes the
methodology used for predicting ground surface deformations due to mining. Prognoses are produced for
planning purposes both for internal (within LKAB) and external (the municipality of Kiruna, etc.) use. The
prognosis methodology employed is based on a combination of analysis of measurement data, numerical
modelling, and empirical relations. The resulting prognoses are reviewed annually and updated as required.
With the anticipated increase in affected surface area, the precision in prediction needs improvement and
LKAB is sponsoring a number of research projects concerning both hangingwall and footwall stability, which
are briefly described in the paper.

LKAB is a government-owned Swedish mining company, with operations in northern Sweden. Currently,
LKAB operates two iron ore underground mines in Kiruna and Malmberget, and one open pit in
Svappavaara (Figure 1). Two open pit mines are also being planned in the area of Svappavaara. In the
underground mines in Kiruna and Malmberget, iron ore is extracted using large scale sublevel caving
allowing good extraction, high degree of safety, cost-efficient mining, and a high degree of mechanisation

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B.M. Stckel

and automation. The caving-related issues are similar in both underground mines, but the focus in this
paper will be on the Kiruna Mine where the Kiirunavaara orebody is being mined.

Kiruna

Svappavaara

Malmberget

Finland
Norway
Sweden

The tabular Kiirunavaara orebody is about 4 km long, 80150 m thick and striking almost northsouth. The
mineralisation is known to a depth of at least 2 km. The orebody dips approximately 60 towards east and
plunges to the north-northeast. The orebody is primarily fine-grained magnetite, with a varying content of
fine-grained apatite (decreasing with depth). The dominant rock type on the hangingwall is quartz porphyry
with varying subtypes and the footwall comprises trachyte, internally designated as syenite porphyry with
varying subtypes.
Mining in Kiruna started more than 100 years ago in an open pit. In the 1960s, a switch to underground
mining using sublevel caving was conducted. The annual production amounts to 28.3 Mtons (million metric
tons) of crude iron ore. The Kiirunavaara Mine is divided into 10 production blocks, named after the
Ycoordinate in the mine coordinate system (Figure 2). Each production block has its own system of ore
passes and ventilation shafts, and shares a ramp with its neighbouring block. The current main haulage
level is at the 1,045 m level. A new main haulage level is developed at the 1,365 m level. Currently, mining
is conducted at the 1,022 m levels, except in the Lake Orebody area (production blocks 9 and 12), where
mining is at the level of 820 m. The Lake orebody belongs to the main orebody but has not been mined as
long as the rest of the orebody because of a currently drained lake directly above the orebody. In this
northern-most part of the mine, the orebody does not daylighting; hence, a cap rock subjected to caving
exists above the orebody.

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Mining using sublevel caving relies on caving of the hangingwall rock, which has the unfortunate side-effect
that the ground surface on the hangingwall side continuously deforms as a result of mining. With increasing
mining depths, larger portions of the hangingwall are affected making it impossible to maintain any
infrastructure or residential areas in these areas. The same problem occurs on the footwall side but to a
lesser extent. Even though the footwall stability is important, all infrastructure is located on the footwall
side both on the ground surface as well as underground. Both hangingwall and footwall stability are
therefore important to follow up. The location of the town of Kiruna in relation to the mine and the cave
crater is shown in Figure 3.

Kiruna City

Railroad

Hangingwall side
Footwall
side

North

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Mining-induced deformations are of two types continuous and discontinuous. The discontinuous
deformations are characterised by large vertical and/or horizontal movements accompanied by visible
cracks on the ground surface. The continuous deformations are characterised by a smooth deformation
pattern, without sudden jumps and with no visible cracks. Within the discontinuous zone, one can
distinguish between the caved zone (caving of rock, large open cracks) and fracture zone (visible cracks),
see also Figure 4. The extension of these zones depend on, e.g. the distance from active mining to the
ground surface, the geometry and dip of the orebody, pre-existing joints and structures in the rock mass,
the mechanical properties of the rock mass properties, and the bulking of the caved rock.
Continuous
deformations

Deformation
Zone

Discontinuous
deformations

Fracture
Zone

Caving
Zone

Continuous
deformations

Deformation
Zone
Fracture
Zone

Caved
rock
Footwall

Hangingwall

Orebody

For the cases when the orebody is not daylighting, i.e. when there is a cap rock between the orebody and
the ground surface, (as Lake Orebody) the process is somewhat different. As the sublevel cave mining
progresses toward depth, the cap rock will cave and eventually, a cave crater will form on the ground
surface (Figure 5). Once a cave crater has formed, the deformation pattern is similar to that for a
daylighting orebody. The time delay between mining of a certain mining level and ground deformations is
larger in the case of a non-daylighting orebody.

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Deformation Fracture Caving

Zone
Zone Zone

Deformation
Fracture Zone
Zone

Caved rock
Cap rock
Plunge
footwall
Plunge
hangingwall
Mining level
Orebody

The municipality of Kiruna is thus unavoidably affected by the mining activities. To be able to plan for an
urban transformation it is necessary to have a prognosis of the mining-induced ground deformations (with
time coupled to mining progress). One of the focus areas of this plan is the mining-induced ground
deformations and associated effects. In the shorter perspective, extensive monitoring of the development
of deformations on the ground surface is required, including development of the measurement techniques.
Currently on-going and planned rock mechanical activities within this subject area are further described in
this paper. The mechanisms for caving, in particular on the footwall side, show some similarities to those of
large scale rock slopes. This is particularly so for the case when sublevel cave mining continues below a
previously mined open pit, such as the Kiruna case. Large scale rock mass failure develops and the issue of
estimating the large scale strength, identifying failure mechanisms, and monitoring the behaviour, both
underground and on surface, are in many respects similar to that of large scale rock slopes, and are further
described in this paper.

The development of the fracture and caving zones on the surface is followed up through annual surface
crack mapping (since 2005 on the hangingwall and since 2007 on the footwall). The mapping is conducted
in early summer each year and includes documenting all visible cracks on the ground surface. On the
hangingwall the first visible cracks are small, typically with mm-aperture, although the measured ground
deformations at the occurrence of the first crack can be fairly large typically 0.20.3 m accumulated
horizontal deformation at the location of the first visible cracks. An example is shown in Figure 6.

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For this case, the measured ground deformation was 0.33 m horizontally and 0.29 m vertically. The cracks
are mainly parallel to the orebody strike, which also means that the surface cracks follow the ore
boundaries at the end portions of the orebody in the north and south (Figure 7). On the footwall side, a
slightly different behaviour can be noted. Cracks on the ground surface are primarily only seen in the
northern part of the orebody (Lake Orebody). The first visible cracks could be up to 0.1 m wide and one
cannot find any cracks farther into the footwall. Cracks are seen in the old open pit but due to safety
reasons, mapping of them is not possible.

Cracks
Footwall

Cave craters

Cracks

Hangingwall

North

The development of the mining-induced ground deformations is currently being monitored by using GPS on
fixed measurement hubs. The GPS measurements started in 2003 and were preceded by geodetic

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measurements using total station (19942002) and Mekometer (electronic distance measurements) and
precision levelling (19761994).
As of March, there are about 450 measurement hubs installed along lines oriented roughly perpendicular
to the orebody strike, see also Figure 8. The GPS measurement technique is the currently most suitable
method with respect to both good precision and large areal coverage, as well as ease of application. LKAB
uses so-called relative measurements and network RTK for GPS, which provides more reference points
during measurement and an improved precision. A control of the practical repeatability in measurements in
Kiruna showed a horizontal precision of 0.7 cm and a vertical precision of 1.3 cm. These values do not
include effects of e.g. groundwater changes, climatic conditions (temperature, frost heave), etc. All
measurements hubs are nowadays installed by placing a steel casing in a 140 mm borehole down to solid
rock or at least to a depth of 5 m (frost free ground). A measurement pin is placed at the centre of the
casing and the casing is grouted with concrete. As mining progresses toward depth and larger areas are
affected on the surface, the monitoring network is continuously enlarged and new measurement hubs
installed at an early stage to capture initial mining-induced ground deformations.
Measurements are taken quarterly, but all measurement hubs are measured once per year (during June).
For the other three quarters (normally in September, December and March), strategically important
measurement hubs are measured. This includes all hubs located near (on both sides) of the deformation
limit defined on the hangingwall and hubs near important infrastructure on the footwall side. Normally, the
development of displacements is slow and these quarterly measurements should be viewed as
complementary to the annual measurement of all hubs. The general deformation behaviour involves first
very small displacements (continuous deformations). Once surface cracking develops, the gradient
increases and larger deformations are recorded until caving reaches the ground surface.

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B.M. Stckel

North

On the hangingwall the deformation limit used for presenting the results is termed environmental
criterion. The limit environmental criterion has been used since 2009, following a ruling by the
Environmental Court in Sweden. This criteria specifies that the ground surface (outside the industrial area)
is only allowed to deform corresponding to a maximum of 0.3% horizontal strain and 0.2% vertical strain
(tilt), verified at two subsequent measurements between measurement hubs along a specified line, see
Figure 9.
This criterion is thus formulated in terms of relative movement and location of this limit is an important
planning consideration for LKAB, as the company is not allowed to exceed this limit for areas outside the
industrial area, meaning that LKAB has to plan ahead to continuously expand the industrial area as ground
displacements become more widespread. The results from the GPS measurements on the hangingwall are
reported quarterly (following each measurement) both internally and externally. The latter include the
regulators (Lnsstyrelsen), the municipality of Kiruna (Kiruna kommun) and other parties that may be
affected by the mining-induced deformations. The latest measurement results from the hangingwall are
shown in Figure 8 (Stckel, 2013).

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Example: distance 50 m

max
15 cm

- more secure measurement values

- shows whether mining is the cause
- coupled to impact

M1

M2

max
10 cm

Extensometer measurements have been used in a few cases to monitor critical installations. Eight
extensometers were installed in 20082009 with three on the footwall side and five on the hangingwall
side. Measurements were initially taken once per week, but later reduced to every second month. The
results have proven to be difficult to interpret, with most of the extensometers not showing any movement
at all. It also appears that two extensometers are probably malfunctioning (possible due to poor grouting,
but not certain). The practical use of these measurements is thus limited.

The Kiirunavaara Mine has a state-of-the-art seismic monitoring system installed. The first array was
installed in 2004 around the Lake Orebody (the northern non-daylighting portion) to monitor caving of the
cap rock. During 2008, a larger array was installed to cover all of the Kiirunavaara orebody, primarily aimed
at monitoring seismicity in production areas as this had become a major concern. A further expansion is
underway, and the system will comprise around 220 geophones by the fall of 2013. The location accuracy is
targeted to be better than 20 m, and the sensitivity is -1.5 (local magnitude).
The first array installed around Lake Orebody successfully showed the progression of the caving front
toward the surface for this orebody. The current system also allows some monitoring of the cave
development in the hangingwall. On the footwall side, there are, comparatively, more geophones than on
the hangingwall side, but these are primarily located at the active mining levels. There are a few geophones
installed in the more shallow levels on the footwall. Thus, the seismic monitoring system has not been used
to monitor footwall cracking and deformations, and/or for prognosis purposes.

Caving and ground deformations induced by sublevel caving is a well-known phenomenon. There are
several cases in Sweden (where sublevel caving has been frequently used for underground iron ore mining)
where nearby municipalities have been affected by mining-induced ground deformations. A well-known
example is Grngesberg, where the so-called Brewery Fault (named so because it was daylighting near the
local brewery) was activated by mining. Internationally, there exist a vast amount of data and experience of
ground subsidence from coal mining, but the rock conditions and the mining methods employed are very
different from hard rock sublevel caving and the governing mechanisms are thus also quite different. These
experiences are thus of limited applicability to the Kiruna case.

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Previous prognoses for the Kiruna case have primarily been based on limit equilibrium analysis assuming
rigid body movement, sometimes used in conjunction with empirical criteria, mostly so-called break angles.
The break angle is defined as the angle from the horizontal to a line from the active mining level to the
outermost observed surface crack. This definition can be made more general by using the term limit angle,
defined as the angle to a defined limit on the ground surface, e.g. cracks or a certain measured deformation
value (Figure 10). The precision in these previous predictions varies, but can generally be said to be poor
in some cases being too conservative and in other cases not being conservative.
Limit for deformation effects

Caved
rock

Hangingwall

Footwall

Limit angle
Mining level

Limit angle

Orebody

Different methods are more or less suited for prognosis of the different limit states, but there is currently
no single method that can be used to predict all aspects of the caving and failure process. A combination of
numerical and empirical methods, used in conjunction with engineering judgment proved to be necessary.
This combined assessment also included a valuation of the reliability and representatively of each dataset
and analysis method. A slightly revised methodology for hangingwall prognoses was developed during the
last few years. The methodology is based on a combination of analysis of measurement data, numerical
modelling, and empirical relations. Two-dimensional numerical modelling using a concept developed by
Villegas and Nordlund (2008) was used to determine a defined failure limit. The failure limit was assumed
to represent a fully developed failure surface in the hangingwall and a so-called Critical Vertical
Deformation (CVD) on the ground surface, which was obtained through calibration against measurements
and crack observations. Some attempts at three-dimensional modelling have been made, which is further
described in Section 4.2. Moreover, curve-fitting of measured deformations according to Villegas (2010)
and Villegas and Nordlund (2010) were used to estimate the limits for the progression of the deformation
area (environmental criterion).
However, the prognosis methodology rests primarily on the use of empirical limit angles to predict the
location of the environmental criterion for ground deformations. Limit angles (compare Figure 10) for the
limit state environmental criterion as well as the location of the first visible crack on the ground surface
have been determined from historical data (measurements, surface crack mapping and previous mining
production). It has been found that these limit angles were fairly similar for different portions of the mine
with the exception of near the ends of the orebody where higher limit angles, were found due to confining
effects. Based on this calibration exercise, a set of design values for the limit angles were defined as
follows: (i) 50 in areas where a cave crater has been developed, (ii) 60 in areas where caving to the
surface has not yet developed, and (iii) 75 for the end portions of the orebody (Stckel et al., 2011).

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For prognoses of footwall deformations, a methodology based exclusively on the concept of limit angles
was used. Given the existing data and the results of the comparison of previous prognoses versus observed
footwall behaviour, the limit angle approach was judged sufficient for this case. Two limit angles were used:
(i) 75 limit angle for the end portions of the orebody, and (ii) 60 limit angle for the rest of orebody. The
limit angles more-or-less represent the dip of the orebody on the footwall side, and experience so far
indicate that this approach is fairly conservative (Mkitaavola and Sjberg, 2012).

The prognoses presented were based on the known ore reserves at the time of analysis, and the current
mining plan (future schedule) at the time of the analysis. Moreover, the prognosis lines on the ground
surface are assumed to correspond to an instantaneous deformation effect from mining of a certain mining
level for a specific year (i.e. any possible time delays in the caving behaviour are ignored).
A prognosis was made for the hangingwall for the years 2013, 2018, and 2023 (the year 2013 had been
used in previous prognoses and was thus a good starting point, and the others were chosen with five year
intervals). In developing the final prognosis, the results from each of the four approaches above were used.
The predicted limit (for environmental criterion) was compared and the most conservative of these was
chosen. For most cases, this proved to be the predictions using empirical limit angles, in particular for the
years 2018 and 2023. Furthermore, some smoothing of the prognosis lines have been applied (rather than
following the projected orebody outline in detail). The prognosis lines for each year correspond to the
mining-induced effects on ground deformation for the mid-year of each year. The resulting prognoses are
shown in Figure 11.

Prognoses of ground deformations 2018 (level 935 m and 1137 m)

Prognoses of ground deformations 2023 (level 1051 m and 1252 m)

North

The prognosis for the footwall has been developed for three different time periods 2018, 2023, and 2028.
The uncertainties in the footwall prognoses are considered fairly high. The large uncertainties pertain
primarily to the poor knowledge of the failure mechanisms governing the large scale footwall behaviour.

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The reliability in the presented prognosis must therefore be considered low. The uncertainty in predicted
location of the prognosis line is considered to be of the order of +100 m (towards west). This uncertainty is
about the same as what is currently used for the hangingwall prognoses. For the footwall, the amount of
monitoring and crack observation data is less than for the hangingwall, but the consequences on the
ground surface, in terms of observed cracks are also less than for the hangingwall. It should be noted that
prognosis presented here is based on the currently available data, and the possible influence of large scale
geological structures has been ignored.
Prognoses are updated when new information is obtained or if observations show a different caving
behaviour or deformation pattern than predicted. A procedure for review and (if required) revision of
prognoses has been adopted within LKAB. All prognoses work is documented in a report, which describes
the basis for prognosis, results, and major changes from previous prognoses. An annual review of all
prognoses is undertaken, which should include a comparison with measurements and observations. An
updated/revised prognosis may be developed, should large discrepancies be found, or new knowledge has
arisen. It should also be mentioned that prognosis methodology has been audited by international
expertise and been found to represent the state-of-the-art with respect to its purpose and application,
and that the underlying data was found to be of good quality and extent.

With the anticipated increase in affected surface area, the precision in prediction needs improvement and
LKAB is sponsoring a number of research projects concerning both hangingwall and footwall stability. The
large area affected also puts high demands on the measurement system used to monitor ground
deformations. Some possible developments in this area are also described in the following sections.

LKAB is conducting a research and development project (PhD study) on deformation measurements using
radar satellite techniques, so-called InSAR Technology. Data from the Radarsat 2 satellite is used in this
project. The project work is carried out together with the Canadian company MDA GSI, which delivers
satellite data, and Cranfield University and Lule University of Technology as research partners. The project
has currently been running for three years and is planned to finish in the end of 2014.
Development of radar satellite-based measurements can provide improved knowledge of ground
deformations. InSAR technique comprises analysis of radar satellite images to develop deformation maps,
which can be used to assess the magnitude of ground deformations occurring between different dates of
acquired images. The technique measures the distance between the satellite and the ground surface, this
will change due to ground deformations and will be shown as a phase difference between two satellite
passes. The technique covers a wide area with fewer fixed hubs than the GPS technique. The satellite is
returning every 24th day with each track, yielding approximately 1215 measurements per year, using
three different tracks, one ascending and two descending.
There are several techniques that can be used to measure the ground deformations. The differential InSAR
(DinSAR) is the simplest technique where the accuracy is approximately 10 mm. This technique works very
well in the area of interest in Kiruna; it allows large numbers of good backscatters in a barren landscape.
Coherent target monitoring (CTM) or persistent InSAR technique (PSInSAR) are also being used. CTM covers
the area of natural or artificial backscatters with better measurement accuracy (around 5 mm). In the areas
where there are no natural backscatters or artificial backscatters it is possible to install radar reflectors,
known as corner reflectors. The accuracy of this technique is approximately 3 mm. A total of 60 corner
reflectors (two at each installation point) have been installed in the Kiruna area (Figure 12). An example of
a deformation map using CTM data is shown in Figure 13.

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North

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One important issue with these techniques is to achieve good results during the snow-covered season,
approximately seven months per year. During the snow season the backscatter will add some errors due to
the high content of water that refracts the backscatter. This results in an insufficient coherence and due to
that one cannot achieve reliable results. Another important issue is the difference in accuracy for different
directions, due to the orbit direction of the satellites. The incidence angles of the satellites are more or less
in the eastwest direction, meaning that the accuracy in the northsouth direction is very poor and
generally not acceptable. The research work on the application of InSAR Technology is continuing with final
project results expected late 2014.

Although the prognosis methodology presented above has worked satisfactorily, there is an inherent
uncertainty associated with this (and all other) empirical approaches. They are only valid within the data
range upon which they were developed; any extrapolation outside of this range is precarious and must be
handled with great caution. Thus, the need for improved prognosis tools remains.
A first attempt at three-dimensional cave-scale numerical modelling was made for the Lake Orebody area,
with the aim of predicting caving and associated ground deformations. The first such study was reported by
Hakami et al. (2010). Modelling was conducted using the caving algorithm developed as part of the MMT
research project, see Sainsbury (2012). Only continuum modelling was used, and the rock mass was
simulated as a plastic strain-softening material.
The model was calibrated against observed crater enlargement (above the Lake Orebody) and measured
ground deformations. Future mining was simulated until year 2020, corresponding to mining at the 993 m
level in the Lake Orebody. The focus on the prediction was on the hangingwall deformations. These results
are judged to be preliminary, as the model did not include the main orebody, which may introduce
unwanted boundary effects. Moreover, the caving algorithm has since been improved to be better adapted
to a sublevel caving production scheme (Sainsbury, 2012).
A revised model, using the updated caving algorithm and conducted with purpose of validating the
algorithm and the approach used was presented by Sainsbury and Stckel (2012) and Sainsbury (2012). The
model only simulated past mining for the period of 2002 to 2010, and the results were compared with
observations and measurements on the ground surface. The model predicted fairly well the occurrence of
sinkholes in the Lake Orebody cap rock area, and a comparison with observed surface fracturing (outside
the crater area) on the hangingwall side also showed good agreement. The model includes the footwall but
has not been evaluated with respect to possible footwall deformations and fracturing, nor has it been run
for forward (future) predictions. This is something that will be explored further.
LKAB is also sponsoring a PhD project at the Lule University of Technology, concerning hangingwall
stability in Kiruna. This project is aimed at providing an improved three-dimensional numerical model for
prognosis purposes. The model will incorporate a novel method of simulating caving to better simulate
conditions in the caving hangingwall and thus provide an improved prediction of ground deformations.
Intermediate results have been presented Villegas et al. (2011) and Villegas and Nordlund (2012). Currently,
the three-dimensional modelling is on-going, which also involves parametric studies to determine the
influence of large scale geological structures and variation of rock mass strength and deformability on the
caving process. Final project results are expected by the end of 2013.

The overall footwall stability has been studied by, Lupo (1996), as well as in several internal (LKAB)
investigations. These studies have shown that the observed cracking and mining-induced deformations in
the footwall at Kiirunavaara exhibit a slow-moving behaviour. At the same time, the knowledge of the
footwall failure mechanisms is limited, primarily due to limited knowledge of the rock mass characteristics
of the large scale rock volume making up the footwall. This includes lithology, presence of large scale
structures, rock strength data, etc. Also, it was found that additional analysis and/or numerical modelling is

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likely required to support the choice of prognosis method, and to increase the reliability in forward
predictions.
During 2012, a feasibility study for a research project on footwall stability was conducted. A compilation of
all available material of the footwall was conducted, and the knowledge gaps in terms of both footwall
behaviour and research state-of-the-art was defined. Based on this, a research and development project
was defined with the following objectives:
Determine the predominant failure mechanisms in the footwall.
Develop a new prognosis method based on true failure mechanisms and rock mass properties.
Describe, in detail, how the underground infrastructure will be affected by the footwall instability.
Describe in detail how the surface infrastructure will be affected by the footwall instability.

The project is conducted as a PhD project at the Lule University of Technology, and is scheduled to be
completed by the end of 2017. In addition to the research activities, future work will include: (i) systematic
follow-up of failure and fracture observations on surface and underground, (ii) continued and extended
monitoring of footwall deformations, both on surface and underground, and (iii) systematic use of
monitoring data to (possibly) elucidate potential failure mechanisms. The existing database of seismic
events is now rather large and should be interrogated to increase the general knowledge of the footwall
behaviour.

The municipality of Kiruna is inescapably affected by mining-induced ground deformations. Prediction of

these deformations is essential to be able to plan for the urban transformation that will result. The work
presented in this paper has described the current status of monitoring, follow-up, and prognosis of
largescale stability and induced deformations. The prognosis methodology comprised a combination of
empirical and numerical analysis. The engineering judgment used to combine the results was important,
but also introduced an element of subjectivity. The annual review procedure described above is thus very
important to continuously assess (and if necessary, revise) the assumptions and decisions made.
The caving and subsidence mechanisms still need to be better elucidated. The general caving behaviour is
fairly well understood, see Duplancic (2001) and Duplancic and Brady (1999), but the specifics of footwall
instability in sublevel caving mines, are not well understood. The described research and development
work is believed to fill an important gap in this respect. It is also believed that some concepts from slope
stability work can be applied here.
In the short time perspective, extensive monitoring of the deformation development is required along with
further development of the measurement technique. Continued GPS monitoring of surface measurement
hubs on the hangingwall side should be carried out, including extending the monitoring network to areas
that will be affected in the future. For the Lake Orebody area, supplementary monitoring of the
hangingwall is recommended, which could include Time Domain Reflectometery (TDR) cables and an
extended seismic array (toward the Kiruna township) to improve the knowledge of the caving behaviour.
An increased use of seismic data to assist in improving the knowledge of caving and stability behaviour is
also envisioned. The latter may include installation of geophones with a different frequency range and at
other locations closer to the ground surface, to better detect large scale movements (as opposed to strain
burst events at active mining levels).
In a longer time perspective, monitoring using other techniques, InSAR, is of interest. The experiences from
the application of InSAR measurements in Kiruna so far are promising and may present a viable
complement to GPS measurements in the future. However, in its present form, it is not likely that InSAR can
replace GPS measurements, primarily due to the issue of poor accuracy in the northsouth direction.
However, using InSAR, the number of GPS measurement hubs may be decreased and measurement
frequency could potentially be reduced as well. Experiences from deformation monitoring in open pits can

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B.M. Stckel

possibly also be of value here. The requirements and problems are, in many ways, similar and a further
cooperation between these disciplines is worth considering.

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Slope Stability 2013, Brisbane, Australia