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Economics of fuel cell electric vehicles and needed transport

sector policy in India


N. Sasidhar

Synopsis: This study outlines the policy frame work to be implemented in India
to achieve self sufficiency in oil sector in next five years. It is possible by
retrofitting the existing diesel and petrol driven heavy and medium duty vehicles
in to cheaper fuel cell electricity vehicles (FCEV) in order to replace totally the
crude oil imports forever. Cheaper electricity generated from renewable power
sources (solar, wind, hydro, etc) and the existing surplus electricity generation
capacity will be fully utilized for substituting the costly diesel and petrol fuels.
Utilization of proven technologies are considered to transform entire transport
sector free from contributing pollution (NOx, SOx, CO, particulate matter, smog,
volatile hydro carbons, noise, etc) and achieve drastic reduction in green house
gas emissions. The estimated financial burden on Indian government is less than
one billion US$ in the form of viability gap funding to encourage establishment of
commercial scale hydrogen fuel cell manufacturing units, hydrogen generation
cum retail filling stations, Hydrogen gas storage tanks in FCEVs, etc. In addition
transport sector policy has to be reoriented totally to target phasing out of all
diesel and petrol driven heavy and medium duty vehicles (goods and passenger).
Light duty petrol driven two and three wheeler are to be phased out with battery,
CNG, LPG run vehicles. Successful implementation of the proposed policy would
turn all the cities and towns free from pollution and noise, achieve faster overall
economic growth improving drastically real living standards of people, put to use
the non performing electricity generation & transmission assets productively and
impart permanent energy security by harnessing indigenous renewable energy
resources.
Introduction:
India is importing nearly 80% of the crude oil requirements and investing huge
capital in processing crude oil in to petrochemical products [1]. The bulk of the
crude oil is converted in to diesel (gas oil) and petrol (gasoline) for use in road
transport sector. The net crude oil imports cost is nearly 27 billion US$ in first
five months of 2016-17 which is nearly equal to 80% of total trade deficit (34
billion US$) in India [2]. Dependence on crude oil imports is making Indian
currency vulnerable to rise in international crude oil prices which are
administered by the major oil producing countries by forming OPEC cartel with
an aim to derive abnormally high profits from oil exports at the cost of oil
importing countries. The economic clout amassed by oil exporters is also being
utilized to spread their religious dogma by any means without caring its
consequences in other countries political and social aspects. India is the third
largest net importer of crude oil and its products after China and Japan [3]. USA
has achieved trade surplus in crude oil and petro products trade. When future
Indian crude oil imports are drastically reduced instead of increase in imports,
international crude oil prices would settle at realistic price based on production
cost with normal returns on the investment similar to other commodities. The
maximum investment incurred on recoverable crude oil is below US$ 22 per
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barrel but crude oil is sold internationally above two times this price even during
the depressed markets [4]. When alternative proven technologies such as
hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV) are
extensively put to use replacing petrol and diesel driven vehicles, Indian
currency would become stable currency without being effected by external global
factors and India would be able to import more sophisticated and useful
technologies to abridge its technology gaps in all spheres at faster pace.

Proposal:

The proposal is retrofit the diesel and petrol driven heavy duty high break horse
power (BHP) transport vehicles such as lorries, road tankers, buses, SUV cars,
MUV cars, tractors, diesel locomotives, fishing trawlers/boats, off the road
construction vehicles, etc in to Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV). As FCEVs are
already economical compared to old internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, it
is proposed to convert ICE vehicles (8 years or more) with less residual life in to
FCEVs to create bulk demand for introducing mass scale production units with
economies of scale for fuel cell conversion kits. The conventional Indian ICE
vehicle manufacturers would also transform gradually in five years duration in to
manufacturers of FCEVs. Thus it is aimed to phase out most of the heavy duty
ICE vehicles within five years to make cities/towns free from pollution and carbon
emissions in the transport sector. The needed policy frame work should be to
encourage original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and entrepreneurs to install
large scale production units of fuel cell kits, FCEV hydrogen storage tanks, total
FCEVs and hydrogen generation cum retail fueling stations by offering various
incentives in the form of viability gap funding (VGF)) or accelerated depreciation
benefits, long term soft loans, etc to overcome the initial sales problems if any.
The needed direct incentives required for the FCEV sector would be nearly 1
billion US$ only to make them self sustaining and profitable industry.
The required hydrogen gas would be supplied to FCEVs by generating Hydrogen
gas using electricity from the electricity grid at hydrogen retail fueling stations
spread all over the country similar to petrol and diesel bunks. The excess power
generation capacity available in India is nearly 550 billion units/year presently [5]
and another 75,000 MW conventional power generating capacity is in pipeline
excluding the targeted 175,000 MW renewable power by 2022 [6]. The hydrogen
fuel generated by 550 billion units of electricity can replace most of diesel and
petrol consumed by heavy and medium duty road vehicles in India completely
obviating the need of crude oil imports for internal consumption. Converting
petrol/diesel driven road vehicles in to FCEVs on priority would save the huge
import cost of crude oil and transform the stranded electricity infrastructure in to
productive assets with major boost to the overall economic growth [6].

Fuel Cell Technology:

Unlike a battery that stores electricity generated elsewhere, a fuel cell creates
electricity from two reactants, hydrogen and oxygen. Similar to battery, a fuel
cell contains two electrodes, an anode and a cathode with electrolyte in between
the electrodes. Hydrogen enters from the anode side while oxygen or air,
containing needed oxygen, enters from the cathode side. While the hydrogen
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moves through the electrolyte towards the oxygen, they are separated into
electrons and protons. The protons pass through the electrolyte while the
electrons move to the anode, generating electricity [7]. When the electrons
reach the anode through external circuit, they recombine with the protons to
react with the oxygen, and form water which is the direct emission from a fuel
cell. Unlike a battery for which the amount of electricity is limited by battery size
and state of charge, fuel cells can continue to provide electricity as long as
hydrogen and oxygen are supplied. The electricity generated from the fuel cells
can be used advantageously particularly in mobile applications such as transport
vehicles without any limitation similar to a petrol/diesel driven ICE.
There are many types of fuel cells. However Alkaline Fuel Cell (AFC) and Polymer
Electrolyte Membrane Fuel cell (PEMFC) are gaining attention in transport
applications.
Alkaline Fuel Cell: The two electrodes are separated by a porous matrix
saturated with an aqueous alkaline solution, such as potassium hydroxide (KOH).
When air is used in place of oxygen, these cells slowly become poisoned by the
carbon dioxide present in the air. AFC typically operates on pure oxygen or air
when a chemical scrubber is used to absorb much of the carbon dioxide present
in air before feeding in to the AFC. AFC are most efficient fuel cells (maximum
70%) and manufactured from cheaper materials [8]. AFCs are the cheapest of
fuel cells to manufacture as the expensive catalyst materials are not needed.
When oxygen is used in place of air, AFC are most suitable fuel cells in terms of
reliability, availability, efficiency, cost, durability, system specific power
(watts/kg), system power density (watts/liter), etc [9]. However AFC are not yet
commercially used in FCEVs due to additional cost of needed oxygen or
unsatisfactory durability with atmospheric air use. However AFC are strong
contender for slot one among FCEVs in transport sector with the availability of
adequate oxygen gas as byproduct when hydrogen is cheaply produced from
water using solar electricity [10][11].
Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel cell: PEMFC is also called Proton
Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells. These are solid state fuel cells with polymer
material as electrolyte and costly platinum as catalyst (9 gm/kw). Presently,
PEMFC are extensively used in FCEVs as they operate safely with air in place of
oxygen though inferior in other parameters with AFCs.

Hydrogen as fuel:

FCEV vehicles are not new in India. They are put in service on experimental and
non commercial basis by using the excess hydrogen available from chemical
industries such as chlor-alkali [12]. Hydrogen is also produced from
methane/natural gas reformation process on commercial scale [13]. But this
process generates more carbon emissions and the costly hydrogen produced is
not economical in FCEV use when compared to diesel/petrol use in ICEs.
Hydrogen can also be generated by electrolysis of water using electricity. In
addition to hydrogen, oxygen is also produced as byproduct. In fifties, the
hydrogen needed for producing ammonia to further convert in to urea fertilizer,
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used to be from the electrolysis of water on major scale with cheaper


hydroelectricity till cheaper methane reformation process is invented using the
natural gas as feed stock. Earlier, hydrogen generation from water was more
expensive than methane reformation process due to higher cost of electricity.
Again with the advent of cheaper electricity (Rs 5/Kwh or below) from solar
energy in India, the production cost of hydrogen from water has decreased
substantially making FCEVs economical to replace diesel/petrol ICE vehicles. Also
solar electricity production is free from carbon emissions. Hydrogen from
electrolysis of water also generates oxygen as byproduct which can be used in
cheaper AFC type FCEVs with advantages. The advantage of producing hydrogen
with electricity is that hydrogen production plant can be made integral with retail
filling station by drawing the electricity from the grid. It does not involve
transportation of compressed hydrogen or liquid hydrogen by tankers. In case of
off the road heavy duty mobile construction and mining equipment, detachable
hydrogen tanks can be envisaged to transport FCEV fuel tanks to retail filling
stations for hydrogen refilling.

Comparison between FCEV and BEV:

Battery electric vehicles (BEV) are also available in competition with the FCEVs.
BEVs directly operate from the electrical energy stored in electric batteries with
high electricity conversion efficiency and suitable only for intra city use for light
duty applications with range less than 100 km. FCEV also operate with electricity
as primary energy and hydrogen produced from solar electricity as intermediate
fuel [14]. BEVs are not suitable and economical as heavy duty vehicles such as
buses, trucks, taxies, tankers, locomotives, etc due to very low pay load to tare
weight ratio which decides the mileage of a vehicle for long range use [15]. FCEV
does not have these limitations and out performs even ICE vehicle for heavy and
medium duty applications in terms of overall cost/mile, mileage and range.
Requireme
nt
Useful
specific
energy
(kwh/kg)
Overall
weight

Energy
density
(watts/liter)

Fuel
cell
electric
vehicle
The energy available in
hydrogen fuel decides
the BHP and range
which is around 500 km
similar to ICE
The incremental weight
is in the form of bigger
hydrogen
tank
for
additional range which
is not substantial.

High and
with ICE

comparable

Battery
electric
vehicle
The energy stored in
battery decides the
BHP
and
range
which is far less
than that of FCEV.
The
incremental
weight is in the form
of bigger battery
bank
which
increases
with
range
extra
proportionately.
Low and bulky

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Remarks
BEVs
are
suitable
for
lesser range.

BEVs occupy 3
times
more
volume
compared
to
FCEV for 500

Cost

Comparable with cost


of ICE when mass
produced

Twice costlier than


ICE for 500 Km
range when mass
produced

Mileage

At least 2 times more


than a heavy duty ICE
for the same energy
input.

Energy
conversion
efficiency

At least 2 times more


than a heavy duty ICE

Mileage inferior to
equivalent FCEV for
same pay load due
to
heavier
tare
weight [16].
At least 3 times
more than a heavy
duty ICE

Retrofitting
old
ICE
vehicles

Possible as they occupy


comparable space and
weight

Not possible as they


occupy more space
and weight

Fueling time

Similar to ICE vehicle


within 20 minutes

Fueling
stations

Hydrogen
filling
stations are to be
established
covering
wider area similar to
ICE vehicles [17]

Takes at least 3
hours on average
using
fast/slow
charging
Can be charged with
electricity available
in parking place or
at home

Availability
or reliability
or
down
time

Available most of the


duration as the fueling
time
is
marginal.
Equally good as ICE in
terms of reliability and
down time
Has excellent part load

Part

load

km range.
However, BEVs
are
cheaper
with lower BHP
and less than
80 km range
However, BEVs
gives
more
mileage
with
range below 80
km.
In
transport
sector,
ultimately,
mileage
is
more pertinent
than
energy
conversion
efficiency.
Conversion in
to BEV leads to
substantial
reduction
in
BHP or range.

However, three
charging points
per
BEV
on
average
are
needed whose
overall
installation cost
exceeds
the
centralized
hydrogen
fueling
stations
cost
/FCEV [18].

Nearly
50%
availability
since
three hours drive
needs three hours
charging time
Best

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part

load

Part

load

efficiency

efficiency compared to
ICE vehicles

efficiency

Fuel source

Fuel used is Hydrogen


which
is
generated
using electricity.

Electricity is stored
in
batteries
and
used directly

Fuel cost/km

Cheaper
than
Gasoline/diesel fuel in
India

Costlier than FCEV


but cheaper with
lesser range

Durability

Nearly 5000 running


hours equal to ICE

Safety

Producing, transporting
and using hydrogen is
safer than petrol, LPG,
naphtha, etc [19].

Far less and battery


needs
to
be
replaced
Highly safe

Utility

Suitable for heavy duty


vehicles
with
long
range such as goods
carriers,
tractors,
taxies,
tankers,
trawlers, small ships,
rail engines, dredgers,
off-road
mobile
construction equipment
[20].
Negligible
emissions
complying
Euro-6
stipulations. Negligible
noise pollution also.

Emissions

Suitable for light


duty vehicles with
lower range and
intra city use [21].

Zero
emissions.
Negligible
noise
pollution also.

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efficiency gives
very
good
mileage on city
roads.
Hydrogen
cannot
be
adulterated like
diesel/petrol.
Electricity
is
cheaper
and
gasoline/diesel
is costlier in
India.
BEV life time
maintenance
cost is high
Hydrogen being
far lighter than
air, any leaks
would
not
stagnate on the
ground to give
rise
to
explosion /fire
unlike
gasoline/LPG
whose
fumes
are denser than
air.
On congested
roads of cities,
BEV would face
competition
from
metro
rail
/mass
public transport
systems.

When
renewable solar
electricity
is
used
for
hydrogen
production
or
battery power,
the
overall
emissions are

Byproducts

Sterile drinkable quality


water is produced as
valuable byproduct

Nil

also drastically
reduced.
FCEV
heavy
vehicle
generates one
liter water for
each
7
km
travel

FCEV economics:

FCEV is economical in India at prevailing Indian market prices of solar electricity


(below 5 INR /kwh) and diesel (59 INR / liter) or petrol (72 INR /liter) as explained
below.
Diesel fuel:
Lower heat value (LHV) of hydrogen: 51,500 Btu/lb or 12,978 Kcal/lb @ 0.252

Kcal = 1 Btu or 28,840 Kcal/kg (Page 1-15 of [22])


LHV of diesel is @ 8572 Kcal/liter and its retail market price is 59 INR/liter

FCEV is two times more efficient over diesel ICE. (Page 4-3 of [22])

Equivalent affordable retail price of hydrogen compared to diesel is 397


INR/kg (=59 x 28840 x 2 / 8572)

180 kwh are needed to produce 1400 sft 3/hr (Page 2-5 of [22])

Hydrogen gas density at STP: 0.005229 lb/ft3 (Page 1-7 of [22)

55 kwh (=180 / {1400 x 0.005229 x 0 .45}) of solar electricity is needed to


generate one kg of hydrogen fuel.

Solar electricity purchase cost is 275 INR/kg of Hydrogen @ 5 INR/Kwh


excluding GST.

The available margin is INR 122 INR/kg (=397-275) which is 31% margin on
total turnover and adequate to meet all the fixed & operating costs
(excluding electricity cost) of the hydrogen generation cum retail fuel filling
station. The byproduct oxygen can also fetch additional income which can be
used in alkaline fuel cell (AFC) electric vehicles to improve their performance
in terms of durability, mileage, break horse power (BHP) and cost/BHP.

The breakup of INR 122 INR/kg available margin can be INR 43 INR/kg towards
12% goods and services tax (GST), 29 INR/kg towards other expenses (O&M
cost, consumables, insurance, etc) and INR 50 INR/kg @ 20% of deployed
capital towards gross profit before depreciation and interest.

For a 2 tons/day hydrogen generation cum retail fueling station, the


affordable total investment is nearly INR 17.5 crores for 350 days full capacity
use @ INR 50 INR/kg gross profit.

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The substantial indirect savings to the government are in terms of pollution


abatement expenditure and reduction in public health expenditure.

8.174 kwh (=55x59/397) is to equal to one liter diesel for generating


equivalent hydrogen fuel. 639 billion kwh of electricity is equivalent to 78.13
million KL or 65 million tons @0.832 kg/L of diesel consumed in 2014-15.
(page 72 of [1])

Petrol fuel:
LHV of petrol is @ 7494 Kcal/liter and its retail market price is 72 INR/liter

FCEV is 2.5 times more efficient over petrol ICE. (Page 4-3 of [22])

Equivalent affordable retail price of hydrogen compared to petrol is 692.71


INR/kg (=72 x 28840 x 2.5 / 7494)

Solar electricity cost @ 5 INR/Kwh is 275 INR/kg of Hydrogen.

The available margin is INR 417.71 INR/kg (=692.71-275) which is adequate


to meet all the fixed & operating costs (excluding electricity cost) of the
hydrogen generation cum retail fuel filling station including all taxes.

5.72 kwh (=55x72/692.71) is to equal to one liter of petrol for generating


equivalent hydrogen fuel. 147 billion kwh of electricity is equivalent to 25.68
million KL or 19 million tons @0.74 kg/L of petrol/motor spirit (page 70 of [1])

Government Policy frame work:

Government of India should devise a transport sector policy with following


measures aiming to commercialize the FCEVs by replacing most of the medium
and heavy duty ICE vehicles in next five years.

Viability gap funding (VGF) or accelerated depreciation incentive shall be


given to the industrialists/OEMs that are ready to install scale of economy size
fuel cell production units in India to overcome initial sales problem till the
local sales are in commensurate with their production capacity. Indigenization
of FCEV technology shall also be included as part of Make in India Policy.
State governments shall allot adequate land at subsidy to market price for
fuel cell manufacturing units and also for the hydrogen generation cum retail
fueling stations.
Encouraging FCEV industry perfectly fits in the India initiated International
Solar Alliance (ISA) to replace petrol/diesel fuels by solar electricity in the
solar energy rich countries and many of these countries are incidentally
lacking adequate crude oil reserves.
State owned road transport corporations and railways shall be mandated to
convert old buses and diesel locomotives in to FCEV buses and FCEV
locomotives. They should also be encouraged by giving soft loans to establish
retail Hydrogen generation cum fueling stations not only for their captive use
but also for other FCEV owners till at least one hydrogen generation and
fueling station is established within 100 km distance in all states.
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Simultaneously, private entrepreneurs can also be encouraged to establish


hydrogen generation cum fueling stations by offering VGF incentives.
The hydrogen production cum retail filling stations shall be allowed
purchasing directly cheaper power from IPPs using open access facility with
no wheeling charges. They should also be allowed to purchase electricity from
day ahead trading in Indian electricity exchanges (IEX).
Once a threshold utility of FCEVs is achieved, fresh permits for the
diesel/petrol filling stations shall be stopped and encourage existing filling
stations to switch over to the hydrogen production cum retail filling stations
The eligible carbon credits shall be passed on to the FCEV owners by giving
tax exemptions on fuel cell engines of FCEVs.
No additional registration charges / road tax on the ICE vehicles retrofitted
into FCEVs.
All Indian heavy and medium duty vehicle manufacturers shall introduce
equivalent FCEV models for their existing ICE models. Necessary statutory
safety and performance certification shall be obtained for the FCEV model.
Also training course shall be made available by the ICE vehicle manufacturers
to the prospective technicians to impart skills in retrofitting an ICE model in to
a FCEV.
Used diesel/ petrol car imports shall be permitted with stipulation that these
vehicles must be converted in to FCEV after 7 years from its manufacturing
year. This would encourage the multinational companies with ICE vehicles/
car assembly units in India to concentrate on FCEV production units.
The retail price of diesel should be enhanced by at least 10% to make FCEV
more attractive over ICE by cutting subsidies if any. Petrol and diesel should
be sold at same retail price to nullify the extra burden on people due to diesel
price hike. The projected viability of FCEV is based on below long term
average crude oil import prices (below 45 US$/barrel) and FCEVs would
become more economical when crude oil prices rise.
A dedicated central public sector undertaking shall be established under the
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy to kick start & implement the
government policy, to conduct research and development in Hydrogen
production, hydrogen storage and FC technology, to coordinate & involve
various state government agencies, to popularize FCEVs among all potential
users, to stipulate & implement required safety norms for FCEVs, to provide
world class test facilities for manufacturers of FCEVs, Hydrogen gas storage
tanks, hydrogen production cum retail filling stations, etc and to monitor the
implementation of the FCEV policy from cradle to grave.

Conclusion:

With the extensive use of FCEV and BEV, India would transform in to net exporter
of crude oil products by using its excess crude oil refining capacity. When India is
able reduce the crude oil imports with indigenous energy resources, international
crude oil price would settle to realistic price based on normal production cost
[23]. India would also achieve permanent energy security by using solar
electricity and the existing power generation capacity without the need to import
natural gas and coal for stationary applications. The carbon emissions and
various pollutants would reduce drastically in cities and industrial areas with
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reduction in consumption of crude oil, natural gas and Coal. FCEV and BEVs also
reduce noise levels drastically in cities and on high ways.
.
References:
1. http://petroleum.nic.in/docs/pngstat.pdf Indian petroleum and Natural Gas
Statistics, 2014-15
2. http://commerce.nic.in/eidb/default.asp Total trade data by India (HI no 27
for crude oil and its products)
3. http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statisticalreview-2016/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2016-india-insights.pdf
BP Statistical Review of world energy 2016
4. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-Market-Collapse-Is-On-TheHorizon.html A Market Collapse Is On The Horizon
5. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/india-canachieve-1-65-billion-units-of-electricity-next-year-piyushgoyal/articleshow/53103685.cms India can achieve 1,650 billion units of
electricity next year, Piyush Goyal
6. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/india-wontneed-extra-power-plants-for-next-three-years-says-governmentreport/articleshow/52545715.cms India wont need extra power plants for
next three years - says government report
7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_cell Fuel cell
8. http://www.cder.dz/A2H2/Medias/Download/Proc%20PDF/posters/%5BGVI
%5D%20Fuel%20cells,%20Internal%20combustion%20engines,%20heat
%20&%20power/194.pdf Technological development and prospect of
alkaline fuel cells
9. http://www.astris.ca/home/HO-pdf/FuelCellReview-AFC.pdf A renaissance
for alkaline fuel cells
10.http://www.afcenergy.com/technology/advantages/
AFC Energy Alkaline
Fuel Cells
11.http://www.renewableenergyfocus.com/view/41618/afc-energybreakthrough-in-operation-of-101-cell-stack-trial-at-german-gas-facility/
AFC Energy breakthrough in operation of 101 cell stack trial at German
gas facility
12.http://mnre.gov.in/file-manager/UserFiles/Draft-Report-on-HydrogenEnergy-and-Fuel-Cells-A-Way-Forward.pdf Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cells
in India
13.http://aprekh.org/files/HYDROGEN%20&%20FUEL%20CELL
%20TECHNOLOGIES.pdf Hydrogen and fuel cell technologies TERI, New
Delhi.
14.http://cenex-lcv.co.uk/2016/assets/downloads/lcv2016presentations/presentation-zone/day1/ralph-clague.pdf
Automotive fuel
cell metrics
15.http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/hydrogen-fuel-future-1.3640316
Hydrogen continues to be a fuel of the future
16.http://cleancaroptions.com/html/ev_weight.html
Weight comparison
between fuel cell car and electric battery car
17.https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/tech/techreport/fc_tech_report.pdf
Technology assessment: Medium- and heavy-duty fuel cell electric vehicles
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18.http://cleancaroptions.com/html/ev_fuel_infrastructure_cost.html Electrical
infrastructure costs of BEV
19.http://www.edmunds.com/fuel-economy/8-things-you-need-to-know-abouthydrogen-fuel-cell-cars.html 8 Things You Need To Know About Hydrogen
Fuel-Cell Cars
20.http://www.caranddriver.com/toyota/mirai
2016 Toyota Mirai Fuel-Cell
Sedan
21.http://www.mahindrae2oplus.com/pages/buyers-guide/specifications
Mahindra electric car specifications
22.http://infohouse.p2ric.org/ref/45/44490.pdf Hydrogen Fuel Cell Engines and
Related Technologies
23.http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/2015/01/20/everything-has-changedoil-and-the-end-of-opec/ Everything has changed: Oil and the end of
OPEC.
This paper is written in November, 2016

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