23/05/2016

FORMALSAFETYASSESSMENT
(FSA)

Contents
FSA Overview
Whatitisandhowitcanbeused

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HistoricBackgroundforFSA
NuclearIndustryin60s:ProbabilisticSafetyAssessments
ChemicalIndustryin70s:QRA,SevesoDirectiveIandII
OffshoreIndustryin80s:QRA,IndustrialSelfRegulationRegimeinNorway,
SafetyCaseRegimeinUK
ShippingIndustryin90s:FSA
1992:UKHouseofLords,LordCarverReport
1993,MSC62:UKproposesFSAconcept
1997,MSC68:FSAInterimGuidelines
,
2001,MSC74:FSAGuidelines

PurposeofFSA
SupportivetoolforrulemakingatIMOwiththeintention
tomakethedecisionprocessatIMOmorerational,
reduce adhoc
reducead
hocproposalsandimplementations
proposals and implementations
toprovideaproactiveandholisticapproach,
comprisingtechnicalaswellashuman&operational
aspects
Generateandachieveinformationinawaywhichis:
systematic,objective,comprehensive,auditable,
documented
Demonstratethat
suitableuptodatetechniqueshavebeenapplied
sufficienteffortshavebeenmadetoidentifyhazards
andmanagetheassociatedrisk

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FSA - a risk based approach

Preparatory Step

Definition of Goals, Systems, Operations

Hazard Identification

Step 1
Hazard Identification

Scenario definition
Consequence
Analysis

Cause and
Frequency Analysis

Step 2

Risk Summation

Risk Analysis
Options to decrease
F
Frequencies
i

No

Risk
Controlled?
C
t ll d?

No

Options to mitigate
C
Consequences

Yes

Cost Benefit Assessment

Reporting

Step 3
Risk Control Options

Step 4 Cost Benefit Assessment

Step 5

Recommendations
for Decision Making

DifferencebetweenFSAandcurrentregulatory
safetyassessmentapproach
Formal Safety Assessment
Step
p 1 What might
g g
go wrong?
g
Step 2
How often, how likely?
How bad?

Step 3
Step 4
Step 5

How can matters be

p
improved?
How much?
How much better?
What actions are
worthwile to take?

Hazard identification
Risk analysis
Frequencies, probabilities
Consequences
Risk = probability x
consequence
Risk control options
identification
Cost benefit evaluation
Recommendation

Current Approach
What did g
go wrong?
g

How can matters be

improved?
p

What actions are

worthwhile to take?

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FSA Approach
PreparatoryStep

DefinitionofGoals,Systems,Operations
HazardIdentification
Scenariodefinition
Consequence
Analysis

Causeand
FrequencyAnalysis
RiskSummation

Optionstodecrease
F
Frequencies
i

No

Risk
C
Controlled?
ll d?

No

Optionstomitigate
C
Consequences

Yes

CostBenefitAssessment
Reporting

FSA PreparatoryStep
Definition of purpose and objective of FSA study
Study scope:
ship type, ship size,
accident categories,
operational conditions
System and operations specification
Type of risk: to persons
persons, environment,
environment property
Risk acceptance criteria
Data collection

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FSA Approach
DefinitionofGoals,Systems,Operations
HazardIdentification

FSA Step 1

Scenariodefinition
Consequence
Analysis

Causeand
FrequencyAnalysis
RiskSummation

Optionstodecrease
F
Frequencies
i

No

Risk
C
Controlled?
ll d?

No

Optionstomitigate
C
Consequences

Yes

CostBenefitAssessment
Reporting

Step1 HazardIdentification
Identificationofallconceivableandrelevanthazards
Multidisciplinaryteam:
selectedexpertsprovidingtherequiredexpertise
selected experts providing the required expertise
StructuredapproachforHazardIdentification
Analysingalsocoarsely
possiblescenariosdevelopingfromidentifiedhazards
causesofthehazard
preventiveormitigatingsafeguards
probabilityandseverityofhazard/scenario
Ranking,prioritisinghazards/scenariosbyassociatedrisk

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FSA Approach
DefinitionofGoals,Systems,Operations
HazardIdentification
Scenariodefinition
Consequence
Analysis

Causeand
FrequencyAnalysis

FSA Step 2

RiskSummation

Optionstodecrease
O
i
d
Frequencies

No

No

Risk
Ri
k
Controlled?

Optionstomitigate
O
i
ii
Consequences

Yes

CostBenefitAssessment
Reporting

Step2 RiskAssessment
Cause and
Frequency
Analysis

Water Ingress in Forepeak

or Cargo Hold No.1

or

Side shell
failure

Deck fittings
failure

Hatch cover
failure
or

or

Excessive
load

Shortage
of
strength

Wastage
due to
lack of
maintenance

Severe
loads
due to
inappr.
speed

Hatch
cover
opens
due to
rolling

Design
failure

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Step2 RiskAssessment
Consequence Analysis
Water
I
Ingress
in
i
Forepeak

Detection/
C
Corrective
ti
Action

WaterDetection/
I
Ingress
i
in
Consequence
C
C
Corrective
i
Hatch No.1 Action
None
Forward trim
F
Forward
d ttrim
i
Ship Loss

Step2 RiskAssessment
Risk Summation and Risk Acceptance

Frequency
pervesselyear

102
103

2x104

104

20

105

Risk = 0.004
fatalities per
vessel year

106
1

10

100

Consequence
NumberofFatalities

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FSA Approach
DefinitionofGoals,Systems,Operations
HazardIdentification
Scenariodefinition
Consequence
Analysis

Causeand
FrequencyAnalysis
RiskSummation

Optionstodecrease
O
i
d
Frequencies

FSA

No

Risk
Ri
k
Controlled?

No

Optionstomitigate
O
i
ii
Consequences

Step 3

Yes

CostBenefitAssessment
Reporting

Step3 RiskControlOptions
How can risk be controlled? Where in the risk model?
Causal Chain:
Human
error,
navigation

Collision

Risk ?

Risk ?

Flooding

Evacuatio
n Failure

Fire

Risk ?

Risk ?

Re-evaluation of the risk:

Implementation of Risk Control Options in the risk model

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FSA Approach
DefinitionofGoals,Systems,Operations
HazardIdentification
Scenariodefinition
Consequence
Analysis

Causeand
FrequencyAnalysis
RiskSummation

Optionstodecrease
O
i
d
Frequencies

No

Risk
Ri
k
Controlled?

No

Optionstomitigate
O
i
ii
Consequences

Yes

FSACostBenefitAssessment
Step 4
Reporting

Step4 CostBenefitAssessment
Types of costs, e.g.:
investment costs costs related to operation
costs related to training, inspection, maintenance

Types of benefits
benefits, e.g.:
eg:
reduced fatalities/injuries
reduced loss of properties, damage to the environment
Ranking of risk control options according to their
cost effectiveness:
Human
error,
navigation

Collision

Cost
Risk

Cost
Risk

Flooding

Evacuation
Failure

Fire

Cost
Risk

Cost
Risk

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FSA Approach
DefinitionofGoals,Systems,Operations
HazardIdentification
Scenariodefinition
Consequence
Analysis

Causeand
FrequencyAnalysis
RiskSummation

Optionstodecrease
O
i
d
Frequencies

No

Risk
Ri
k
Controlled?

No

Optionstomitigate
O
i
ii
Consequences

Yes

CostBenefitAssessment

FSA Step Reporting

5

Step5 Recommendations
fordecisionmaking
Providingaselectionofriskcontroloptions,whichare cost
DefinitionofGoals,Systems,Operations
effectiveand
reduceriskaslowasisreasonablypracticable
y p HazardIdentification
Hazard Identification
Preparationofareport,
Scenariodefinition
presentingthescopeoftheanalysis,
anylimitationsandassumptionsmade,
Consequence
Causeand
theresultsachieved,
Analysis
FrequencyAnalysis
providingaclearexplanationofthereasoning
RiskSummation
behindtheconclusionsmade.
No decision maker
No
Recommendationofriskcontroloptionstothedecisionmaker
Recommendation
of risk control
options to the
Risk
k
Optionstodecrease
Controlled?
forfurtherconsideration.Frequencies

Optionstomitigate
Consequences

Yes

CostBenefitAssessment
Reporting

10