Geomorphology 52 (2003) 299 315

www.elsevier.com/locate/geomorph

Linking hydrological, infinite slope stability and land-use change

models through GIS for assessing the impact of deforestation
on slope stability in high Andean watersheds
Veerle Vanacker a,b,*, Michiel Vanderschaeghe a,b, Gerard Govers b, Edith Willems c,
Jean Poesen b, Jozef Deckers c, Bert De Bievre d
a
Fund for Scientific ResearchFlanders (F.W.O.), Egmontstraats, 1000 Brussel, Belgium
Laboratory for Experimental Geomorphology, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Redingenstraat 16B, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
c
Institute for Land and Water Management, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Vital Decosterstraat 102, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
d
Programa para el Manejo de Agua y Suelo (PROMAS), Universidad de Cuenca, Av. 12 de Avril s/n, Cuenca, Ecuador
b

Received 14 January 2002; received in revised form 6 September 2002; accepted 10 September 2002

Abstract
In the Ecuadorian Andes, episodic slope movements comprising shallow rotational and translational slides and rapid flows
of debris and soil material are common. Consequently, not only considerable financial costs are experienced, but also major
ecological and environmental problems arise in a larger geographical area. Sediment production by slope movement on
hillslopes directly affects sediment transport and deposition in downstream rivers and dams and morphological changes in the
stream channels. In developing countries world-wide, slope movement hazards are growing: increasing population pressure and
economic development force more people to move to potentially hazardous areas, which are less suitable for agriculture and
rangelands.
This paper describes the methods used to determine the controlling factors of slope failure and to build upon the results of
the statistical analysis a process-based slope stability model, which includes a dynamic soil wetness index using a simple
subsurface flow model. The model provides a time-varying estimate of slope movement susceptibility, by linking land-use data
with spatially varying hydrologic (soil conductivity, evapotranspiration, soil wetness) and soil strength properties. The slope
stability model was applied to a high Andean watershed (Gordeleg Catchment, 250 ha, southern Ecuadorian Andes) and was
validated by calculating the association coefficients between the slope movement susceptibility map of 2000 and the spatial
pattern of active slope movements, as measured in the field with GPS. The proposed methodology allows assessment of the
effects of past and future land-use change on slope stability. A realistic deforestation scenario was presented: past land-use
change includes a gradual fragmentation and clear cut of the secondary forests, as observed over the last four decades (1963
2000), future land-use change is simulated based on a binary logistic deforestation model, whereby it was assumed that future
land-use change would continue at the same rate and style as over the last 37 years (1963 2000).
D 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Land-use change; Infinite slope analysis; Hydrology; Slope movement; Andean watershed

* Corresponding author. Laboratory for Experimental Geomorphology, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Redingenstraat 16B, 3000 Leuven,
Belgium. Tel.: +32-16-32-64-28; fax: +32-16-32-64-00.
E-mail address: veerle.vanacker@geo.kuleuven.ac.be (V. Vanacker).
0169-555X/02/$ - see front matter D 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/S0169-555X(02)00263-5

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V. Vanacker et al. / Geomorphology 52 (2003) 299315

1. Introduction
Slope movement is a widespread hazard in mountainous regions around the world (Rowbotham and
Dudycha, 1998; Dhakal et al., 1999; Guzzetti et al.,
1999). Consequently, not only considerable financial
costs are suffered, but also major ecological and
environmental problems arise in a larger geographical area (Li, 1994; Larsen and Torres-Sanchez,
1998). Due to a strong coupling between hillslopes
and stream channels in mountain environments, the
sediment mobilised by slope failure invokes
increased downstream sediment load (Froehlich and
Starkel, 1995; Hovius et al., 2000). When the supply
of failed material is larger than stream transport
capacity, a dam may be created, causing upstream
flooding and downstream flash floods after dam
failure. In developing countries world-wide, slope
movement risks are likely to grow as increasing
population pressure, together with economic development, are forcing more people to move to unstable
hillside areas (Smyth and Royle, 2000; Barnard et
al., 2001).
The prediction of the areas that are particularly
sensitive to slope movement through the development of stochastic or process-based susceptibility
models has been the goal of extensive research
(e.g. Carrara et al., 1991; Montgomery and Dietrich,
1994; Guzzetti et al., 1999). In stochastic susceptibility models, the spatial distribution of slope movements is evaluated with reference to physical
parameters, such as topographic terrain attributes,
lithology, vegetation cover, climatic data and distance
to stream channels. A susceptibility model is then
constructed using a site-specific combination of these
physical parameters. Several stochastic models have
highlighted the importance of vegetation cover in
controlling slope failure (Dhakal et al., 1999; Luckman et al., 1999; Baeza and Corominas, 2001).
Process-based spatially distributed models specifically include the physical processes involved in slope
failure and can therefore be applied to larger geographical areas. In contrast to the stochastic susceptibility models, the prediction of slope failure is
usually based solely upon topographical attributes,
sometimes used in combination with a spatial varying soil wetness index (e.g. Montgomery and Dietrich, 1994; Gritzner et al., 2001). Compared to the

topographical terrain attributes, vegetation cover is

considered to be of minor importance. As a detailed
vegetation-monitoring programme with measurements of specific hydrologic parameters for different
kinds of vegetation cover is often lacking, vegetation
cover is generally assumed to be homogeneous over
the study area. Miller and Sas (1998) used a processbased model to estimate the effect of land use on the
stability of a large landslide (Hazel landslide) in
Washington State. They examined the effects of
timber harvesting on slope movement only for two
hypothetical land-use scenarios (100% forest vs.
100% grassland). However, they did not investigate
how actual land-use changes, which are not homogeneous but spatially variable and correlated with specific terrain attributes, affect slope movement susceptibility.
In the Ecuadorian Andes, slope movement is an
important regional problem, as sediment production
by slope movement on hillslopes directly influences
transport and deposition of material in downstream
rivers and dams and morphological changes in stream
channels. Since the 1960s, the increased population
pressure together with economic development have
forced the agrarian population to use potentially
hazardous areas, which are less suitable for agriculture
and rangelands, for cultivation (Vanacker et al., in
press(a,b)). Nowadays, episodic slope movements,
often associated with intense rainstorms or accelerated
soil saturation due to seepage from irrigation channels
or reservoirs, are common. Typically, they comprise
shallow failures in soil or regolith material involving
rotational and translational slides and rapid flows of
debris and soil material.
In this paper, we propose a methodology to
investigate the effect of land-use/-cover change on
slope movement susceptibility by incorporating specific hydrologic parameter estimates, which vary
according to a specific land-use pattern, in a simple
process-based slope stability model. Specifically, the
study aims (i) to identify the controlling factors of
different types of slope movement, (ii) to investigate
to what extent the inclusion of spatially distributed
land-use data in a physically based slope stability
model improves the prediction of slope movement
patterns, and (iii) to investigate the effect of past and
future land-use change on slope movement susceptibility.

V. Vanacker et al. / Geomorphology 52 (2003) 299315

2. Study site
The Ecuadorian Andes is the narrowest part of the
Andes Mountains, and is only 150 180 km wide. It is
subdivided in two distinct ridges, the Cordillera Occidental and the Cordillera Oriental, separated by an
intramontane depression (Baldock, 1982; Coltorti and
Ollier, 2000). The strong altitudinal gradients (altitude
ranges from 2000 to 6310 m a.s.l. over a distance of

301

f80 km) result in a large variation in meteorological,

hydrological and ecological conditions over relatively
short distances. A characteristic elevational sequence
of six natural ecosystems can be found: glacial ice
(>4900 m), desert paramos (4900 4500 m), shrub
and cushion paramos (4500 4000 m), grass paramos
(4000 3400 m), upper montane rain forest (3400
2500 m) and montane shrub vegetation (3000 2000
m, Keating, 1999). Human occupation has tradition-

Fig. 1. Location of the Gordeleg Catchment within the southern Ecuadorian Andes. A 3D representation of the catchment is given in the inset on
the lower rightside of the map.

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V. Vanacker et al. / Geomorphology 52 (2003) 299315

ally concentrated in the central parts of the intramontane valleys, for their temperate climate. Due to
a long precolonial cultivation history, with successive
periods of land clearing and abandonment, almost
90% of the native forests has been converted to
agricultural land (cropland and grassland) or has been
replaced by secondary woody vegetation or, more
recently, by exotic species (Hansen and Rodbell,
1995; Hofstede et al., 1998). During the last four
decades, radical socio-economic and demographic
changes induced high land pressure in the central
Inter-Andean basins (CESA, 1992). This manifests
itself in an upward movement of the agricultural
frontier, whereby the natural vegetation is increasingly
converted to agricultural lands (Hess, 1990; Wunder,
1996; Vanacker et al., in press(a,b)).
To understand the impact of land clearing, and
more specifically forest conversion, on slope stability,
a small upland catchment was selected based on (i) the
homogeneity of its geomorphologic and lithologic
settings, (ii) a recent start of the deforestation history
and (iii) the availability of good aerial photographs,

regularly spread over time from the 1960s onwards.

The Gordeleg study site consists of a 2.5-km2 drainage basin in the southern Ecuadorian Andes, 20 km
southwest of Cuenca (Figs. 1 and 2). Slope morphology is characterised by convex hilltops, steep linear
slopes ( V 133%) and large concave valleys (Fig. 3).
Altitude ranges between 3332 and 2980 m. The basin
is underlain by horizontally layered Lower Pliocene to
Upper Pleistocene volcanic tuffs (Coltorti and Ollier,
2000). Soil properties are strongly related to the parent
material and geomorphologic setting: in the valleys,
isothermic vertic Luvisols are found, whereas on the
hillslopes and ridges, soil development is slow and
isomesic Cambisols dominate (FAO, 1998; Dercon,
2001). The area has a cool tropical climate and
receives f 800 mm of precipitation annually: precipitation is f 30 mm/month in the relatively dry
season, i.e. from June to October, and f 90 100
mm/month in the rainy season. Slopes are covered
with broadleaf trees and woody shrubs, but disturbance has increased during the last four decades. Forest
cover in the catchment has declined from 86.4% in

Fig. 2. Land use in the Gordeleg Catchment in 2000. The location of the two transects is indicated on the map with a black line.

V. Vanacker et al. / Geomorphology 52 (2003) 299315

303

Fig. 3. View on the western side of the Gordeleg Catchment, with secondary forest in the upstream part and grass- and croplands in the downstream
part of the catchment.

1963 to 52.9% in 2000 (Fig. 4, Willems, 1999).

Deforestation is preferentially taking place in the river
valleys: the presence of nearby rivers guarantees a
permanent water supply for cattle-raising and, in
addition, these areas act as access roads to the dense
forest, due to their relatively easy accessibility.

3. Input data
3.1. Slope movement inventory
Spatial distribution and classification of slope
movements was determined by systematic field surveys carried out from July to October 2000. A
simplified classification system based on the one
proposed by Cruden and Varnes (1996) was applied.
Four basic movement types were distinguished: falls,
rotational slides, translational slides and flows. A
simple form was designed and completed for each
slope movement in the field. The form contains the
following entries: (i) slope movement characteristics:
slope movement type, state of activity (i.e. active,
inactive-young and inactive-mature slope movements,
McCalpin, 1974), estimated depth of the shear plane,

(ii) presence of interfering human infrastructure, such

as a road or irrigation network and (iii) a sketch of the
surrounding area comprising the location of interfering infrastructure. A total of 257 slope movements
were recognised and mapped by GPS. GPS accuracy
was evaluated by calculating the horizontal error on
prolonged GPS measurements of two second-order
geodetic points. The mean horizontal accuracy is f 2
to 3 m. The slope movement distribution map,
together with a schematic representation of the prevailing types, is given in Fig. 4. A photograph of a
rotational slide, i.e. one of the most characteristic
slope movements in the Gordeleg area, is given in
Fig. 5.
3.2. Land-use change information (1963 2000)
Land-use evolution during the last four decades
was documented using archived aerial photographs
for the time period 1963 1995, complemented with a
field survey in 2000. A detailed description of the
selected airphoto series is presented by Vanacker et al.
(2000). Because of significant differences in quality
and scale between and within the aerial photographs,
the land-use classification was performed manually

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V. Vanacker et al. / Geomorphology 52 (2003) 299315

Fig. 4. Spatial pattern of land-use changes and slope movement features in the catchment. The distribution of the slope movements by typology
is shown in the pie diagram.

using a WILD stereoscope and transparent overlays.

Only three land-use categories were identified: (i)
secondary forest, (ii) grassland and (iii) cropland.
Afterwards, this information was transferred into
digital form, whereby the aerial photographs and
transparent overlays were georeferenced and orthorectified in ILWIS (International Institute for Aerospace Survey and Earth Sciences, 1999). The land-use
map of 1995 was updated during the 2000 field
campaign using a hand-held GPS (Fig. 2). Simultaneously, a detailed topographic map of the area was
elaborated, which incorporates actualised information
about the location of roads, paths, irrigation channels
and individual farm locations.

3.3. Additional geophysical data

Digital elevation data for the Gordeleg study site
were generated from the 1:10.000-scale topographical
map (INECEL, 1992). The vectorized contours with a
20-m interval were gridded and then interpolated at a
resolution of 5
5 m. Sink pits (grid cell that are
surrounded by higher terrain) were removed by raising the elevation of each pit grid cell within the DEM
to the elevation of the lowest point on pit perimeter.
Topographical attributes and stream channels were
derived from digital topography. The algorithm of
Zevenbergen and Thorne (1987) was used to map
slope gradient (%), slope aspect (j) and planimetric

V. Vanacker et al. / Geomorphology 52 (2003) 299315

305

Fig. 5. View on a typical slump movement located in grasslands close to the thalweg.

curvature (%/m). Slope aspect values were measured

with reference to the east southeast, which corresponds with the azimuth angle of the slopes that are
turned away from the basin outlet. The least prevailing aspect class was taken as the zero direction in
order to obtain a unimodal distribution of cell values,
which is centred in the range 0 360j. The stream
channel network was simulated based on flow accumulation data, which were calculated as the hypothetical accumulation of rainfall units per pixel,
assuming that one unit of rainfall is dropped homogeneously on an impermeable surface. Flow accumulation was calculated using the multiple-flow algorithm
of Quinn et al. (1991), as such an algorithm is less
sensitive to small errors in the DEM than a singleflow algorithm (Desmet and Govers, 1996a). Each
pixel with a flow accumulation value exceeding 3000
rainfall units was classified as a stream. The use of
this threshold value resulted in a stream network that
corresponded very well with field observations.
Measurements of soil bulk density and thickness
for each of the prevailing land-use categories were
made by Kopecky core sampling (depth 15 cm) and
soil augering on two transects across secondary forest,
grassland and cropland (Fig. 2). Every 50 to 100 m an

observation was made and located using GPS. Soil

bulk density of areas covered by secondary forest
(12.9 F 0.11 kN/m3) was significantly lower than bulk
density of areas covered by grassland (15.2 F 0.05
kN/m3) and/or cropland (15.7 F 0.08 kN/m3). Soil
thickness is highly variable throughout the catchment
and ranges from 0.5 to 2 m, but no relationship with
land use could be observed. Saturated hydraulic conductivity on forested, grass- and cropland was measured using a double ring infiltrometer with an inner
ring of 0.3 m and an outer ring of 0.5 m.

4. Stochastic and deterministic modelling of slope

stability
4.1. Statistical analysis of the factors controlling
slope stability
In order to carry out the statistical analyses, a
dataset was created and for each pixel of 5
5 m on
the map the topographic attributes (slope, aspect,
curvature) were calculated, as well as proximity to
river and irrigation channels, current land use and, if
applicable, the time of deforestation. Geology, pedol-

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V. Vanacker et al. / Geomorphology 52 (2003) 299315

ogy and climate are relatively uniform throughout the

study area and are therefore not included for statistical
analysis. The dataset was split into a calibration (20%
of all pixels) and validation (80% of all pixels) dataset, using a stratified random sampling procedure.
This procedure automatically eliminates spatial autocorrelation in the dataset (Hosmer and Lemeshow,
1989).
Chi-square statistics were used to test the null
hypothesis (there is no significant association between
the predictor variable and the slope movement pattern), while Cramers V statistics were used to test the
strength and type of association (SAS, 1990, Table 1).
The v2 tests confirmed a highly significant difference
between the distribution of cell values for the pixels
affected by slope movement and the distribution of
cell values for the remaining pixels for each of the
selected predictor variables. Land use (Cramers
V = 0.141) and time of deforestation (Cramers
V = 0.140) have the highest predictive power: slope
movements are most prevalent on grasslands, which
have been deforested some decades ago. Relatively
more movements are found in the river valleys and in
planimetric concavities, which points to the importance of seepage forces to slope movement. Areas
downslope of irrigation channels have also a higher
susceptibility, probably due to an increased pore
pressure caused by seepage from the open irrigation
channels. This particularly concerns failures with high

Table 1
Statistical summary of the analysis of variance
Significant predictor variables
(confidence level: 0.99)

Cramers V

Land use (secondary forest,

grassland, cropland)
Time of deforestation (before 1963,
between 1963 and 1979, between 1979
and 1989, between 1989 and 2000)
Elevation (m)
Distance to nearest thalweg (m)
Upslope distance to nearest irrigation
channel (m)
Planimetric curvature (%/m)
Slope gradient (%)
Slope aspect (j)

0.141
0.140

0.108
0.088
0.068
0.055
0.051
0.049

The significant controlling factors of slope failure are given

(significance level: 0.99), each with their corresponding Cramers V
value.

moisture content and deformation of the failed material, such as debris and soil flows. Topographic terrain
attributes, such as slope gradient and slope aspect, are
generally of somewhat minor importance. It is important to point out that slope gradients and the elevation
of the cells affected by slope movement are significantly lower than the slope gradients and the elevation
of the remaining cells. In other words, slope movements occur mainly in low-lying areas on relatively
gentle slopes.
Moderate levels of correlation exist between elevation and a set of predictor variables, such as
horizontal distance to the thalweg (r2 = 0.28), upslope
distance to the nearest irrigation channel (r2 = 0.22),
actual land use (Cramers V = 0.35) and time of
deforestation (Cramers V = 0.30). This explains why
elevation has such a high predictive power and why
slope movements primarily occur on low-lying areas.
Actual land use is also strongly correlated with time of
deforestation (Cramers V = 0.65).
In the foregoing analysis each variable is considered separately, so that the intercorrelation that might
exist between some of the variables cannot be taken
into account: this problem can be solved by using
logistic regression analysis. Logistic regression fits
the logarithm of the odds (i.e. the probability of slope
instability divided by the probability of slope stability)
as a linear regression function of the predictor variables, through the method of maximum likelihood
(Hosmer and Lemeshow, 1989).
A logistic model was initially constructed for all
slope movements and afterwards refined for each of
the three prevailing movement types (translational and
rotational slides and flows). Considering their strong
correlation with other predictor variables, elevation
and actual land use were not included in the analysis.
The ability of all fitted models to predict slope
instability is evaluated from Table 2, which contains
the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) and estimated standard error of the parameters, the Wald v2
value, the associated probability ( P>Wald v2) and the
proportional odds ratio. The goodness-of-fit is measured as the association between the predicted probabilities and observed responses using the percentages
of concordant, discordant and tied pairs. The measure
of association that will be considered in this paper is
the Goodman Kruskal Gamma, which varies between 0 and 1, with larger values corresponding to

V. Vanacker et al. / Geomorphology 52 (2003) 299315

307

Table 2
Table of maximum likelihood estimates for the prediction of slope stability
Binary logistic models

Table of maximum likelihood estimates

Parameter estimate F S.E.

Wald v2

Pr>v2

(a) All landslides (gamma = 0.72)

Intercept
Distance to valley (m)
Deforested between 1989 and 2000
Deforested between 1979 and 1989
Deforested before 1963
Deforested between 1963 and 1979
Planimetric curvature (%/m)a
Slope gradient (%)
Slope aspect (j)

 7.516 F 0.516
 0.011 F 0.001
4.247 F 0.465
4.151 F 0.461
3.8012 F 0.474
3.743 F 0.468
0.302 F 0.076
0.017 F 0.005
0.002 F 0.001

211.4
95.6
83.5
81.1
64.5
63.9
15.7
14.7
7.9

< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.005

0.99
69.87
63.50
44.75
42.23
1.35
1.02
1.00

(b) Flows (gamma = 0.87)

Intercept
Distance to valley (m)
Upslope distance to nearest irrigation canal (m)
Deforested between 1989 and 2000

 7.597 F 1.468
 0.034 F 0.009
1.670 F 0.473
2.460 F 1.118

26.8
13.1
12.8
4.8

< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.028

0.97
5.42
11.70

(c) Translational slides (gamma = 0.73)

Intercept
Deforested between 1989 and 2000
Deforested between 1979 and 1989
Deforested before 1963
Distance to valley (m)
Slope gradient (%)
Deforested between 1963 and 1979
Slope aspect (j)
Planimetric curvature (%/m)
Upslope distance to nearest irrigation canal (m)

 9.820 F 0.809
4.883 F 0.729
4.481 F 0.725
4.380 F 0.743
 0.008 F 0.001
0.032 F 0.006
3.887 F 0.740
0.004 F 0.001
0.326 F 0.107
0.508 F 0.219

147.3
44.9
38.2
34.74
31.48
27.87
27.59
12.79
9.24
5.39

< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.003
0.020

131.96
88.34
79.83
0.99
1.03
48.74
1.00
1.39
1.66

(d) Rotational slides (gamma = 0.74)

Intercept
Distance to valley (m)
Deforested between 1979 and 1989
Deforested between 1989 and 2000
Deforested between 1963 and 1979
Deforested before 1963
Planimetric curvature (%/m)

 7.062 F 0.793
 0.014 F 0.002
4.154 F 0.724
3.810 F 0.733
3.728 F 0.733
3.433 F 0.743
0.335 F 0.112

< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.003

0.99
63.70
45.17
41.59
30.98
1.40

79.41
53.50
32.93
27.05
25.84
21.37
8.912

Odds ratio

Positive values of the parameter estimates indicate that an increase in the parameter value will increase the probability of deforestation, a
negative value indicates the opposite. The significance of each parameter is given by the P>v2 value. The Wald v2 value gives the relative
weight of each parameter in the model and allows assessment of the role of each explanatory variable in the prediction of slope stability.
a
Positive values of planimetric curvature (%/m) indicate planimetric concavity, negative values indicate planimetric convexity.

stronger associations between the predicted probabilities and observed values (Allison, 1999).
Comparing to previous statistics, the logistic regression gives a more refined view of the predictive
power of each explanatory variable, as it takes into
account the relationship amongst all variables. The
overall slope movement susceptibility is highly
dependent on (i) the spatial distribution of soil wet-

ness in the catchment, which is reflected by the strong

connection between the occurrence of slope movements and areas of topographic convergence (i.e.
close to the thalweg in planimetric concavities, Table
2) and (ii) the recent deforestation history. This
already shows the importance of using land-use
change data in combination with a topography-based
hydrological model, to construct a feasible physically

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V. Vanacker et al. / Geomorphology 52 (2003) 299315

based slope stability model for the area. Some distinction could be made in the controlling factors for
different movement types. Debris and earth flows (7%
of slope movements) are significantly associated with
irrigation channels, which points to a continuous
contribution of seepage water from the open irrigation
channels towards soil water content. As the irrigation
channels are rather shallow ( < 0.3 m), this seepage
water is likely to saturate the upper soil layer and to
create conditions favourable for shallow flows. Rotational and translational slides (49% and 44%, respectively, of slope movements) are more related to
increased soil moisture and soil pore water pressure
after clear-cutting of secondary forests.
4.2. Physical modelling of slope stability
The multivariate analysis clearly indicated that the
spatial and temporal distribution of rotational and
translational shallow landsliding is strongly controlled
by recent land-use changes upslope of the affected
sites and by surface topography through shallow
subsurface flow convergence, increased soil saturation
and shear strength reduction (Fig. 5). Here we built
upon the results of the statistical analysis to explore
the utility of a spatially distributed process-based
slope stability model, which combines a steady-state
hydrologic model, TOPOG, with a deterministic infinite slope stability model, to predict the location of
slope movement (OLoughlin, 1986). The spatial
organisation of different land units was taken into
account by linking land-use data with hydrologic (soil

conductivity, evapotranspiration, soil wetness) and

soil strength properties.
Conventional limit equilibrium methods use a
factor of safety (FS) to compute slope stability. The
factor of safety is usually defined as the ratio of the
available shear strength (sf) to the shear stress (s),
which is necessary to maintain limit equilibrium on a
potential sliding surface. Using the Mohr Coulomb
failure criterium, the shear strength (kPa) of a slope
can be expressed as:
sf cV Dc r  ltanuV
where cVis effective soil cohesion (kPa), Dc is the
cohesion provided by root strength (kPa), r is the total
normal stress (kPa), l is the pore water pressure (kPa)
and uVis the effective angle of soil internal friction (j,
Selby, 1993). The shear stress, i.e. downslope component of gravity, can be represented as:
s ct zsinacosa
where ct is the total unit weight of the sliding material
(kN/m3), z is the depth of the failure plane (m) and a is
the slope angle (j). After substituting the formula for
shear strength and stress, the factor of safety equals:

FS

cV Dc ct  cw mzcos2 a
tanuV
czsinacosa

where cVis effective soil cohesion (kPa), Dc the

cohesion provided by root strength (kPa), ct the total

Table 3
Model input parameters for three distinctive land-use classes
Parameter

Abbreviation

Units

Depth of the shear plane

Saturated hydraulic conductivity
Soil transmissivitya
Unit weight of the soil
Internal soil cohesion
Root cohesion
Angle of internal friction
Total rainfall
Evaporation
Rainfall interception
Net rainfall

z
K
T
c
c
Dc
uV
Q
E
RI
q

m
m/s
m2/s
kN/m3
kPa
kPa
j
m/s
m/s
%
m/s

Secondary
forest
1.4
10 4
2.8
10 4
12.9 F 0.11
12

30
1.1
10 7

Soil transmissivity=(Saturated hydraulic conductivity
Average thickness of soil profile).

Grassland
1.5 2.5
2.9
10 5
5.8
10 5
15.2 F 0.05
0
0
16 28
1.7 2.3
10 7
3.5
10 8
11
1.5
10 7

Cropland

3.1
10 5
6.2
10 5
15.7 F 0.08
0

11
1.5
10 7

V. Vanacker et al. / Geomorphology 52 (2003) 299315

unit weight of the sliding material (kN/m3), cw the unit

weight of water, i.e. 9.81 (kN/m3), m the equilibrium
soil saturation, z the vertical sliding thickness (m), a
the slope angle (j) and uV the effective angle of soil
internal friction (j).
A steady state hydrologic model, TOPOG, was
used to map the spatial pattern of equilibrium soil
saturation based on analysis of upslope contributing
areas, soil transmissivity and local slope (OLoughlin,
1986; Montgomery and Dietrich, 1994). The TOPOG
model, which was developed for a vector-based GIS
environment, was adapted to be used in a grid-cell
based environment. For shallow subsurface runoff

309

parallel to the ground surface, the soil saturation, m,

is computed as:
qa
m
bT sinb
where q is the net rainfall, i.e. the precipitation less
evapotranspiration and deeper drainage to the groundwater table (m/s), a the contributing drainage area
(m2), b the pixel resolution (m), T the soil transmissivity when saturated (m2/s) and a the local slope
angle (j). The upslope contributing area for each grid
cell was determined using the algorithm developed by
Desmet and Govers (1996b).

Table 4
Contingency table between the mapped pattern of susceptibility to slope movement (columns) and the inventory of active flow, translational and
rotational slope movements in 2000 (rows)
Factor of safety (FS)
< 0.50

0.50 0.75

0.75 1.00

1.00 1.25

1.25 1.50

>1.50

Total

4.92
1.96
2.00
92.37

15.57
6.22
6.32
95.41

26.59
10.62
10.80
95.97

23.55
9.40
9.57
96.52

22.97
9.17
9.33
98.05

152.52
60.91
61.97
99.53

246.10
98.28

0.03
0.01
9.53
0.54

0.05
0.02
15.70
0.29

0.04
0.02
12.77
0.14

0.05
0.02
18.07
0.22

0.04
0.02
14.53
0.19

0.09
0.04
30.77
0.06

0.30
0.12

0.24
0.09
12.39
4.42

0.37
0.15
19.50
2.27

0.53
0.21
27.71
1.90

0.40
0.16
20.84
1.62

0.20
0.08
10.42
0.85

0.17
0.07
8.89
0.11

1.90
0.76

Rotational slide
Area (ha)
Total (%)
Row
Column

0.14
0.06
6.77
2.68

0.33
0.13
15.76
2.03

0.55
0.22
26.24
1.99

0.40
0.16
18.98
1.64

0.22
0.09
10.23
0.92

0.46
0.18
21.76
0.30

2.10
0.84

Total
Area (ha)
Total (%)

5.33
2.13

16.31
6.52

27.70
11.06

24.39
9.74

23.43
9.36

153.23
61.20

250.40

No landslides
Area (ha)
Total (%)
Row
Column
Earth and debris flow
Area (ha)
Total (%)
Row
Column
Translational slide
Area (ha)
Total (%)
Row
Column

Landslide vs. No Landslide

Flow vs. No Flow
Slide vs. No Slide
Slump vs. No Slump

P(v2)
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001

Cramers V
0.149
0.032
0.118
0.091

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V. Vanacker et al. / Geomorphology 52 (2003) 299315

Table 5
Grid cell equivalents (GCE) for calculation of the travel cost
distance
Type of terrain

Maximum
velocity (km/h)

Grid cell
equivalent

Paved road
Unpaved road
Path
Hilly areas (0 30%)
Low mountainous areas (30 50%)
Mid mountainous areas (50 75%)
High mountainous areas (>75%)

60
20
6
5
4
3
2

1
3
10
12
15
20
30

The cost distance is expressed in terms of grid cell equivalents

(GCE), which increase linearly with decreasing terrain accessibility.
A GCE of 1 indicates the cost of moving through a paved road cell
with a possible velocity of 60 km/h. A GCE of 20 might arise from
different travelling roads, such as e.g. 20 paved road cells, two path
cells with a velocity of 6 km/h or one mid mountainous cell with a
velocity of 3 km/h.

In order to apply the adopted approach, the spatial

distribution of each of the abovementioned parameters
had to be mapped. The spatial organisation of the
vegetation cover was taken into account by linking the
land-use data with specific hydrological and soil
strength properties (Table 3). Fieldwork in the Gordeleg Catchment provided the basis for estimating
values of the depth of the shear plane, saturated
hydraulic conductivity and bulk density. The soil
cohesion was set to 0 kPa, as simple experiments
showed that the soil material becomes extremely
plastic when wet. A root cohesion term was added
to the internal soil cohesion: following Basabe (1998)
a value of 12 kPa was assumed to be appropriate
under secondary forest cover. Basabe (1998) reported
values of the angle of internal friction for weathered

volcanic tuff deposits varying from f 16j to 28j. In

this study, we used an intermediate value of 22j.
Rainfall, which was observed to cause shallow slope
movements in this catchment, had typical 24-h rainfall
intensities of 15 20 mm. This precipitation rate has a
recurrence interval of f 2 months for the Quingeo
meteorological station, located near the catchment at
2760 m a.s.l. (PROMAS, 2001). Evaporation shows
little variation during the year: a mean annual measured value of 3.0 mm/24 h was used. Differences in
evapotranspiration between various land-use types
were assumed to be negligible, as transpiration is
limited due to the cold and humid climate. No data
are available on rainfall interception loss in this area,
but based on interception measurements in similar
environmental settings by Ataroff and Rada (2000)
and Veneklaas and Vanek (1990), we estimate an
interception loss of about 30% for Andean forest
and 11% for grassland and cropland.
In order to assess the applicability of the processbased slope stability model, association coefficients
were calculated between the predicted pattern of slope
stability in 2000 (i.e. spatial pattern of susceptibility to
slope movement calculated using land-use data of
2000) and the spatial pattern of active slope movements in 2000. The significance of association
between the predicted and observed pattern of slope
movements was assessed using Pearson v2 tests and
the strength and type of association using Cramers V
statistics. Initially, general association was tested
between the spatial pattern of all slope movements
and the susceptibility map; afterwards the association
tests were refined for each of the three prevailing
movement types separately. Table 4 gives the surface

Table 6
Table of maximum likelihood estimates for deforestation prediction
Binary logistic deforestation model (gamma: 0.56)

Parameter estimate F S.E.

Wald v2

Pr>v2

Odds ratio

Intercept
Cost distance to river (GCE)a
Cost distance to forest border in 1963
Height (m)
Slope (%)
Cost distance to road (GCE)
Curvature (%/m)
Cost distance to village (GCE)
Aspect (j)

28.2279 F 1.4372
 0.0014 F 0.0003
 0.0021 F 0.0001
 0.0099 F 0.0005
 0.0390 F 0.0012
0.0006 F 0.0001
 0.1122 F 0.0698
0.0021 F 0.0001
0.0062 F 0.0003

385.8
3023.4
2026.4
1994.5
1606.9
75.5
69.9
10.2
7.3

< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
< 0.001
0.007

0.999
0.998
0.990
0.962
1.001
0.894
1.002
1.006

GCE: grid cell equivalents (see Table 5).

V. Vanacker et al. / Geomorphology 52 (2003) 299315

Fig. 6. Simulation of the effect of a realistic land-use change scenario on soil wetness and slope stability (FS = factor of safety).

311

312

V. Vanacker et al. / Geomorphology 52 (2003) 299315

area distribution of the slope failures observed at

different susceptibility levels and a summary of the
statistical tests. Significant agreement ( P(v2) <0.001)
between the mapped and predicted patterns of slope
movement occurrences is found for each of the movement types: 83% of all mapped slope movements
(69% of the flows, 91.1% of the translational slides
and 79.2% of the rotational slides) are located in
potentially unstable areas with a FS < 1.5. The percentage of slope movement pixels, which are wrongly
classified as being stable (i.e. FS>1.5), is the highest
for flows and rotational slides. Field reconnaissance in
the area indicated that most misclassified flow and
slump pixels (86% and 64%, respectively) are triggered by either seepage from open irrigation channels
or riverbank erosion, factors which are not included in
the model.
4.3. Effect of past and future land-use change on
slope stability
The deterministic slope stability model can be used
to provide a time-varying estimate of susceptibility to
slope failure as a function of vegetation cover and
land use. Here, we simulated the effect of a realistic
deforestation scenario on slope stability in the catchment.
Slope stability was first calculated for a totally
forested catchment to reconstruct the natural susceptibility to slope movement in the area. Afterwards, the catchment was gradually deforested, such
as observed from the aerial photographs from 1963,
1979, 1989 and 1995 and from the field mapping in
2000. Future deforestation patterns were simulated
using a binary logistic deforestation model, which
predicts the probability that specific forested pixels
in the landscape will be deforested as a function of
biophysical and socio-economic explanatory variables. The slope stability model was then run repeatedly for successive time periods, whereby the
spatial distribution of the model input parameters was
adapted to the land-use pattern at a specific point in
time.
For the logistic deforestation model, topographical
and travelling cost data (i.e. travelling cost to a
specific target calculated based on the maximum
speed with which one can move on different terrain
types, Table 5) were selected as explanatory variables

and the deforestation pattern between 1963 and 2001

was used as the response variable (Table 6, Veldkamp
and Lambin, 2001; Geoghegan et al., 2001; Vanacker
et al., in press(a,b)). Again, 20% of the pixels were
used for calibration and the remaining 80% for
validation. The overall fit of the model (Goodman
Kruskal Gamma: 0.56) is reasonably good for this
type of analysis (Table 6, cf. Geoghegan et al., 2001;
Serneels and Lambin, 2001). The most significant
explanatory variables for modelling deforestation in
the area are in decreasing order: (i) travelling cost to
permanent rivers (Wald v2: 3023.4), (ii) travelling cost
to the agricultural frontier (Wald v2: 2026.4), (iii)
parcel altitude (Wald v2: 1994.5) and (iv) parcel
steepness (Wald v2: 1606.9). Here, a stationary case
is presented, which implies that future land-use
change is assumed to continue at the same rate and
in the same style as over the last 37 years (1963
2000). In this case, the catchment is predicted to be
totally deforested by 2018.
The time-series of simulations for the Gordeleg
Catchment illustrates the effect of deforestation on soil
wetness and predicted slope stability (Fig. 6). When
the catchment is totally covered by forest vegetation,
slope stability is mainly controlled by slope steepness:
only some steep slope units (slope>75%) are susceptible to slope movement. Soil profile saturation is
limited to the concave valley floors, which are drained
by small streams. With increasing deforestation, seepage forces become more important than slope steepness to the development of slope movements. The
wetness index of deforested slope units rises as the net
rainfall ( q) increases and the saturated soil transmissivity (T) drops. Besides, the additional strength provided to soil by roots (Dc) declines rapidly after
clearfelling. Progressively, the shear strength of a
deforested slope unit is reduced and a larger part of
the catchment becomes highly susceptible to slope
movement.

5. Conclusion
Statistical analyses confirmed the hypothesis that
the overall susceptibility to slope movement is highly
dependent on recent land-use change. In particular, the
conversion from secondary forest to grassland and/or
cropland induces increased risk of shallow slope

V. Vanacker et al. / Geomorphology 52 (2003) 299315

movement. The effect of land-use change on slope

stability is not uniform. The Gordeleg case-study
shows that surface topography controls the susceptibility of slope units to failure after deforestation
through shallow subsurface flow convergence, increased soil saturation and reduced shear strength.
Due to the importance of subsurface flow convergence and the preferential deforestation of valley
bottoms, there is an inverse relationship between slope
gradient and susceptibility to slope movement. The
results of the Gordeleg Catchment are not representative for all movement types in high Andean watersheds, as translational and rotational slides are
strongly dominant in the Gordeleg database (93% of
all slope movement occurrences). Debris and earth
flows could be distinguished from translational and
rotational slides as they are not only associated with
land-use change and surface topography, but also with
the location of irrigation channels. This indicates that
seepage water from inadequately constructed and/or
managed channels can contribute to an accelerated
soil saturation downslope. This factor is often overlooked in studies of the effect of land-use change on
slope stability.
We built upon the results of the statistical analyses
to explore the utility of a physically based slope
stability model, which includes a dynamic soil wetness index using a simple subsurface flow model. The
model provides a time-varying estimate of susceptibility to slope movement by linking land-use data
with spatially varying hydrological and soil strength
properties. The close match between the predicted and
observed pattern of slope movement demonstrates that
the process-based slope stability model predicts well
the relative potential for shallow slope movements, as
driven by convergence of shallow subsurface flow.
The adopted approach can be applied to a larger
geographical area, provided calibration of model input
parameters.
The adopted approach allows assessment of the
effect of past and future land-use change on slope
stability. Here, a realistic deforestation scenario was
presented: past land-use change includes a gradual
fragmentation and clear-cut of secondary forests,
such as observed over the last four decades. Future
land use is simulated based on a land-use model
whereby it was assumed that future change would
continue at the same rate and style as over the last 37

313

years. However, the methodology also allows simulation of the effect of other land-use change scenarios, e.g. a slow-down of deforestation or reforestation
with native trees or exotic species, on the spatial
pattern of slope stability. The model simulation
clearly shows that present, past and (possible) future
slope movement patterns can only be understood and
simulated if the land-use dynamics and slope movement mechanics are jointly considered. Deforestation
does not occur randomly within the landscape but is
largely controlled by topography. As land use
strongly affects slope stability, the spatial pattern of
slope movements can only be understood and simulated if the deforestation pattern is taken into account.

Acknowledgements
The research in Ecuador was supported by the
Fund for Scientific ResearchFlanders and the
multi-disciplinary project Diagnosis and solutions
for soil degradation in the Austro Ecuatoriano,
which is funded by the Flemish Interuniversitary
Council. The authors wish to thank A. Molina, M.
Ramirez, E. Tacuri and R. Vanegas for assistance in
the field. Special appreciation is also extended to all
members of the technical staff of Programa para el
Manejo de Agua y Suelo (PROMAS), Cuenca, Ecuador.

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