Washington (CNN)In speaking on the telephone with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-we

n and lashing out at China on Twitter over the weekend, President-elect Donald T
rump did more than bewilder leaders in Beijing and the White House.
He made clear that he's serious about his vows to wring a new deal from China on
trade and appears to be ready to challenge at least the atmospherics of the US
relationship with Taiwan -- an issue of deep sensitivity in Beijing.
His tactics also show that President Trump promises to be just as much of a disr
uptor in international relations as he has been in domestic politics, no matter
what conventions get broken in the process.
But so far, analysts say, it is not clear that Trump -- for all his bombast -- i
s preparing to tear up the strategic framework that has underpinned Sino-US rela
tions since President Richard Nixon went to China to open relations between the
two countries four decades ago.
Trump's inexperience in foreign affairs and the fact that he is yet to name a se
cretary of state or senior Asia policy team means there is uncertainty in Washin
gton and across the Pacific about his intentions.
China watchers are trying to work out if the call with Tsai is a sign that Trump
is ready to challenge the strategic ambiguity of the "One China" policy itself
that has been the cornerstone of bilateral relations since the establishment of
diplomatic relations.
The formula, enshrined in the documents that eventually led to the establishment
of US relations with China, permits Beijing to regard Taiwan as a part of China
and the United States to sell the nationalist island arms to defend itself agai
nst the mainland, and has headed off a major US-China clash over the issue.
Trump's call with Tsai was initially described by the presidential transition as
a courtesy call. But now his supporters suggest that the first reported direct
contact between a president or a president-elect with a Taiwanese leader in 40 y
ears was more significant.
Trump's Taiwan call
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Trump, China on collision course
Trump takes fresh swipe
Opinion: Trump's move brilliant
White House weighs in
Opinion: Major break in protocol
China lodges complaint
Reigniting flashpoint?
"Taiwan is our ally," former Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore said in a radi
o interview Monday on the Big John and Ray Show on WLS AM890. "That is a country
that we have backed because they believe in freedom. We ought to back our ally,
and if China doesn't like it, screw 'em."
Reince Priebus, Trump's pick to be his chief of staff, said Monday that Moore is
not an adviser for Trump's transition.
But the diplomatic balance over Taiwan is so delicate that some analysts fear Tr
ump could be starting a confrontation that could easily spin out of control, end
anger other crucial areas of the US-China relationship and even so hike tensions
that a military clash is possible in the Pacific.
"I think that until the inauguration, China is unlikely to let this escalate wit
h the President-elect," said Jessica Chen Weiss, a China expert at Cornell Unive
rsity."After January 20, I think all bets are off."
"China would be willing to sacrifice cooperation across the board to stand firm
against any move to give Taiwan diplomatic recognition and undermine the "One Ch
ina policy," according to Weiss.
Trump takes fresh swipe at China
What is Trump's strategy?
When news broke of Trump's conversation Friday with Tsai, many foreign policy ex
perts simply chalked it up to a rookie error.

But after Trump hit back on Twitter by pointing out the seemingly illogical conv
ention that will give him power as president to sell arms to Taiwan but not talk
to its leader, the consensus began to shift.
When Trump returned to Twitter over the weekend to accuse China of devaluing its
currency and building a "massive military complex" in the South China Sea, it b
ecame clear that he was making a tough initial gambit in his unfolding relations
hip with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
"He wants to negotiate a new deal with China. Obviously this call does what he s
aid he is going to do. He wants to shake up China," said Michael Pillsbury, an a
uthor and China expert who has advised Trump and called him a "strategic genius.
"
What Trump's Taiwan call means for US-China ties
What Trump's Taiwan call means for US-China ties 05:58
"He is going to be firm and he is reminding them we need to have a talk now (bet
ween) Beijing and Washington," Pillsbury said on CNN Monday.
Trump's attitude mirrors a recent Foreign Policy article written by two other ad
visers -- Peter Navarro and Alexander Gray -- that was seen widely as a blueprin
t for his upcoming China strategy.
The authors warned that President Barack Obama's Asia pivot, partly conceived to
cope with the rise of China, was a case of talking loudly but "carrying a small
stick."
Trump, they suggested, would adopt a policy of "peace through strength," vastly
expanding the US Navy to respond more robustly to Chinese territorial claims in
the East and South China Seas and make clear that American interests in the regi
on would be paramount.
Patrick Cronin, a senior director at the Center for A New American Security, sai
d that Trump was intent on demonstrating to China that its rising power would no
t be met by an atrophying United States.