2 tayangan

Diunggah oleh Hugo Hernández

The main purpose of this paper is to illustrate the use of the properties and algebra of variance as a useful tool for modelling the effect of normal random fluctuations in nonlinear systems. Any arbitrary differentiable nonlinear function of normal random variables (X_i) can be expressed as a power series expansion of standard normal random variables (Z_i). Given that the properties and algebra of the expected value, variance and covariance of Z_i are known, it is possible to obtain a simplified mathematical model for the expected value and variance of the dependent variable as a function of the normal random fluctuation of the independent variables. The proposed method is used for describing the effect of fluctuations in temperature and pressure on the density of an ideal gas, and on the intensity of light scattered by the ideal gas. The results of the model obtained are compared to Monte Carlo simulations of the system.

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2016-1

Modelling the effect of fluctuation in nonlinear systems using variance

algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research, Medellin 050030, Colombia

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

ORCID : 0000-0002-7634-7161

doi: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36501.52969

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to illustrate the use of the properties and algebra of variance

as a useful tool for modelling the effect of normal random fluctuations in nonlinear systems.

Any arbitrary differentiable nonlinear function of normal random variables ( ) can be

expressed as a power series expansion of standard normal random variables ( ). Given that

the properties and algebra of the expected value, variance and covariance of are known, it is

possible to obtain a simplified mathematical model for the expected value and variance of the

dependent variable as a function of the normal random fluctuation of the independent

variables. The proposed method is used for describing the effect of fluctuations in temperature

and pressure on the density of an ideal gas, and on the intensity of light scattered by the ideal

gas. The results of the model obtained are compared to Monte Carlo simulations of the system.

Keywords

Fluctuation; Ideal Gas; Light Scattering; Monte Carlo Simulation; Variance Algebra

1. Introduction

Random fluctuations occur everywhere in Nature [1]. The law of large numbers indicates that

by increasing the frequency of occurrences of events, the number of measurements or the size

of a system, the effect of fluctuations is reduced [2]. However, fluctuations remain as an

important part of our World. Conventional modelling techniques are based on the average

behavior of the systems. This type of modelling is also known as deterministic modelling. But

fluctuation plays a key role in certain phenomena, such as for example, the scattering of light,

turbulence, the onset of phase changes, polymer growth, enzymatic reactions, gene

expression, nuclear and exothermic reactors, the weather, and many others [3-13]. Most

importantly, these systems where fluctuation is relevant are complex highly nonlinear systems,

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

so the effect of the fluctuation in most cases cannot be easily determined by conventional

deterministic modelling methods.

The purpose of this paper is to present a basic mathematical tool proposed for modelling the

effect of random fluctuation in nonlinear systems. It is therefore required to understand how

random variables behave, and this is not only regarding the expected value but mainly the

variance. The mathematical basics of variance algebra are presented in Section 2. An example

of application to the scattering of light in ideal gases is described and analyzed in Section 3.

2. Variance Algebra

Definition 1. The variance

of a random variable is defined as the second moment with

respect to the mean value , and it is expressed as: [14]

( )

[(

) ]

(2.1)

where the symbol E() represents the expected value operator.

Definition 2. For a discrete random variable, the expected value is defined as:

( )

where

(2.2)

, and

Definition 3. For a continuous random variable, the expected value is defined as:

( )

( )

(2.3)

where ( ) is the probability density function of , and represents all possible realizations of

. Equivalently, the probability density function has the following property:

( )

(2.4)

Definition 4. Expected value of a function of . The following definition is valid for a function

of a single continuous random variable :

[ ( )]

( ) ( )

(2.5)

In the present work, the effect of continuous random variables on the fluctuation of nonlinear

systems is analyzed, although some of the results obtained may also be valid for discrete

random variables.

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

For understanding variance algebra, it is important first to understand the basic algebra of the

expected value operator. These results are obtained by applying Definition 4.

(

) ( )

( )

( )

( )

(2.6)

(

)

( )

(2.7)

Multiplication of a constant value to a random variable .

( ) ( ) ( )

( )

( )

(2.8)

Assuming

( )

( )

(2.9)

:

(

)

( )

( )

Or, in the more general case:

(

)

( )

( )

(2.10)

(2.11)

On the other hand, we have variance algebra. Using Definitions 1 and 3, as well as the basic

algebra of the expected value operator, we obtain that:

( )

[(

) ]

( )

[

[ ( )]

( )

(2.12)

And similarly to the expected value, the variance of a general function of a random variable can

be determined.

Definition 5. The variance of a function

[ ( )]

([ ( )] )

is:

[ ( ( ))]

(2.13)

(

)

((

)]

) ) [ (

(

( )

( ( ))

[( ( ))

( )

( )

(2.14)

Similarly,

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

(

)

( )

Multiplication of a constant value to a random variable :

(

( (

))

(2.15)

( ( ))

[ (

( ( )) ]

( )

(2.16)

Correspondingly,

( )

( )

(2.17)

value and variance are:

(

)

(

, the expected

( )

)

(2.18)

( )

(2.19)

Equations (2.18) and (2.19) are valid for any arbitrary probability distribution.

:

(

)

((

) ) [ (

[

(

)]

]

[( ( ))

( ( ))

( )

( )

( ) ( )

) ( ( ))

(

)

( ( )) ]

)

( ) ( )

(2.20)

where

(

Definition 6.

(

) is the covariance of

[(

( ))(

( ))]

(

( ) ( )

(2.21)

Notice that:

(

( ( ))

( )

(2.22)

(

( )

( )

(2.23)

In natural processes, the normal distribution is the most common distribution, as a direct result

of the Central Limit Theorem [15], which establishes that the sum of different independent

random variables tends toward a distribution with the following probability density function:

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

(

( )

(2.24)

where is the mean or the expected value of the distribution, and is the standard deviation

of the distribution, equivalent to the square root of the variance. For any arbitrary random

variable , the mean and standard deviation are:

( )

(2.25)

( )

(2.26)

The distribution described by Eq. (2.24), known as Gaussian distribution or bell curve, is a

normal distribution of mean , and standard deviation . The standard version of the normal

) and a standard

distribution (denoted as ) is characterized by a mean value of zero (

deviation of one (

). And from Eq. (2.25) and (2.26):

( )

(2.27)

( )

(2.28)

related to a standard normal random variable , by:

(2.29)

From Eq. (2.18)-(2.19) and (2.27)-(2.29), it can be shown that:

( )

( )

( )

(2.30)

( )

(2.31)

This is a very interesting result, as the behavior of any normal random variable can be described

in terms of the standard normal distribution .

In order to obtain the variance of any arbitrary function of a normal random variable , it is

useful to describe the function as a series expansion around the mean ( ) as follows:

( )

where

( )

( )

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( )(

( )(

(2.32)

with respect to . Replacing Eq. (2.29) in Eq. (2.32):

(2.33)

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

with mean and standard deviation can be expressed as the infinite series expansion (2.33)

Thus, the expected value of ( ) is:

[ ( )]

( )(

( )(

(2.34)

[ ( )]

( )

( )

(2.35)

( )

[ ( )]

( )

( )

( )

( )

( )

)

(2.36)

where

(

[ (

)]

(2.37)

and

(

) (

(2.38)

random variable with mean and standard deviation , can be expressed as a function (2.36) of

the expected values of the powers of a standard normal random variable .

Let us now understand the behavior of (

expected value of

is:

(

(2.39)

If is an odd number (

(

), then by symmetry:

(2.40)

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

If is an even number (

(

), then by symmetry:

(2.41)

The integral in Eq. (2.41) can be solved by multiple partial substitutions considering the

following useful equations [16]:

(2.42)

(2.43)

(

For

(2.44)

(2.45)

(

(2.46)

(2.47)

In summary,

(

(

and from Eqs. (2.38), (2.47) and (2.48), the covariance between

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(2.48)

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and

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

(

(

(

)

(

) (

{

(2.49)

By using Definition 7, it is possible to transform any arbitrary differentiable nonlinear function

of a normal random variable , into a function of the standard normal variable :

( )

( )

(2.50)

and therefore:

[ ( )]

[ ( )]

( )]

[

( )]

( )

( )

( )(

(2.51)

(

( )(

( )(

(2.52)

We have now all the elements required to determining the expected value and the variance of

any given arbitrary differentiable nonlinear function of a normal random variable.

Let us first consider an ideal gas at constant temperature ( ) and pressure ( ). Under these

conditions, the density of the gas ( ) can be determined by [17]:

(3.1)

where

Assuming that pressure is a normal random variable whereas the temperature is constant, from

Definition 7 it is possible to describe the fluctuating pressure as:

(3.2)

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

where

represents the mean pressure and

denotes the standard deviation of the

fluctuations in pressure. Thus, the density of the gas considering normal fluctuations in

pressure will be:

(

(3.3)

The gas density is now a function of the standard normal random variable

( )

and therefore:

(3.4)

Since Eq. (3.4) is already a linear function of there is no need to make the series expansion,

and the basic algebra of expected values and variance can be used.

The expected value of the gas density would be:

( )

( )

(3.5)

( )

( )

(3.6)

Gas density fluctuations are important because they cause fluctuations in the relative

permittivity of the gas, which are responsible for the scattering of light by the atmosphere

(Rayleigh scattering) [18].

Let us now assume that temperature fluctuates around its mean value following a normal

random distribution while the pressure is constant.

Again from Definition 7, the temperature can be expressed as:

(3.7)

represents the mean temperature, whereas

denotes the standard deviation of the

fluctuations in temperature. Thus the density of the gas considering fluctuations in

temperature will be:

( )

(3.8)

The basic algebra of the expected value and the variance is not straightforward now, and the

series expansion is required (Proposition 1):

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( )(

)

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(3.9)

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

( )

( )

)

( )

[

( )

( )

after the second term as:

[

( )

)]

( )

(3.10)

(3.11)

( ) ]

(3.12)

It is observed that the mean gas density is not affected by fluctuations in pressure, but

increases as the fluctuations in temperature increase. This is the result of the nonlinearity of

the effect of temperature. Negative fluctuations in temperature increase gas density more

than positive fluctuations reduce it, and the net effect is an increase of the mean gas density as

a function of the relative magnitude of the fluctuations. Furthermore, this effect is more

significant at lower temperatures.

The variance of the gas density under a fluctuating temperature will be:

( )

[

(

(

) [ (

)

)

]

(

)]

(3.13)

term:

(

) ( ) (

( ) )

(3.14)

A validation of these results can be done by Monte Carlo (MC) simulation [19]. Normal random

numbers are generated for describing the fluctuation in temperature, whereas density is

calculated according to Eq. (3.8). The following values were considered in the simulation:

,

,

,

. Different values of

were assumed. Simulated mean density and standard deviation are obtained from 2000

realizations. The comparison between the simulated values and the values predicted from Eq.

(3.12) and (3.14) are presented in Figures 1 and 2. In both cases, the predicted behavior of the

gas density is consistent with the simulation results, especially for small relative temperature

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

fluctuations (<12%). The relative fluctuation is also known as the coefficient of variation (CV)

[14]. Figure 1 also shows the 95% confidence limits for the mean gas density, calculated by

, where is the number of realizations. Deviations observed in Figure 2 for

larger fluctuations (CV > 12%) are mainly due to the truncation of the expansion, performed in

Eq. (3.14). For larger fluctuations, additional terms of the series should be considered.

1.210

MC Simulation

Calculated (3.12)

95% Confidence limits

1.205

1.200

1.195

1.190

1.185

1.180

1.175

1.170

1.165

1.160

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

Figure 1. Comparison of mean gas density ( ) results, considering a normal fluctuation in

temperature, between Monte Carlo simulation (2000 realizations) and Equation (3.12). 95%

confidence intervals for Eq. (3.12) are included.

An additional degree of complexity is found when both pressure and temperature are

considered to fluctuate simultaneously. In this case, from Definition 7 and Eq. (3.1):

( )

(3.15)

It is important noticing that each variable can be described as a function of a standard normal

random variable, but they are different and independent. For this reason two standard normal

random variables are introduced: and .

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

0.25

MC Simulation

Calculated (3.14)

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

Figure 2. Comparison of the fluctuation in gas density ( ), considering a normal fluctuation in

temperature, between Monte Carlo simulation (2000 realizations) and Equation (3.14).

It is also important to consider the following properties of two independent standard normal

random variables:

(

)

(

) (

(

)

)

) (

) (

)[ (

) (

)]

)

(3.16)

(

)[ (

) (

)]

)

(3.17)

(

) (

(3.18)

(

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(3.19)

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

( )

)]

(3.20)

Neglecting the terms for which

[

( ) ]

(3.21)

That is, the mean gas density depends on the temperature fluctuation but not on the pressure

fluctuation.

And the variance for this case is (Proposition 2):

( )

)

(

)(

[(

) [

[ (

[ (

(

)

)

]

)

(

(

(

)

)]

)]

)]

(3.22)

(

) [

( ) (

)(

( ) )]

(3.23)

Figure 3 and 4 present the results of MC simulation for the mean and standard deviation of the

gas density, considering the simultaneous fluctuation of temperature and pressure compared

to the values obtained from Eq. (3.21) and (3.23). The same conditions as in the previous

simulation were used, with a value of

, and changing the relative fluctuation in

pressure. Again, the proposed mathematical approximation is in good agreement with the MC

simulation.

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

1.200

MC Simulation

Mean gas density, (kg/m3)

1.195

Calculated (3.21)

95% Confidence limits

1.190

1.185

1.180

1.175

1.170

1.165

1.160

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

Figure 3. Comparison of mean gas density ( ) results, considering normal fluctuations in

temperature and pressure, between Monte Carlo simulation (2000 realizations) and Equation

(3.21). 95% confidence limits for Eq. (3.21) are included. Relative temperature fluctuation = 10%.

Notice that Eq. (3.21) is equivalent to Equations (3.5) and (3.12), when

and

respectively. Similarly, Eq. (3.23) is equivalent to Equations (3.6) and (3.14) when

, respectively.

,

and

It can also be concluded that considering up to the second term in the summations is a fairly

good approximation for small relative fluctuations (CV < 12%).

As it was previously mentioned, light scattering takes place as a result of fluctuations in the

relative permittivity ( ) of the atmosphere caused by density fluctuations. The intensity of the

light scattered at a distance and an angle , is proportional to the variance of the relative

permittivity:[18]

(

where

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( ))

(3.24)

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

0.24

MC Simulation

Calculated (3.23)

0.22

0.20

0.18

0.16

0.14

0.12

0.10

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

Figure 4. Comparison of the fluctuation in gas density ( ), considering normal fluctuations in

temperature and pressure, between Monte Carlo simulation (2000 realizations) and Equation

(3.23). Relative temperature fluctuation = 10%.

In addition, the relative permittivity can be related to the density by the Clausius-Mossotti

equation: [18]

(3.25)

where

(3.26)

Considering that the gas density is a normal random variable with mean

deviation , then

(

(

and standard

(3.27)

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

(3.28)

(

)(

(3.29)

(

(3.30)

(

) (

(3.31)

Or equivalently, in terms of

(

) (

( )

(3.32)

1.18E-03

MC simulation

Calculated (3.30)

1.17E-03

1.16E-03

1.15E-03

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

Figure 5. Comparison of the values for the mean relative permittivity minus one (

),

considering normal fluctuations in density, between Monte Carlo simulation (2000 realizations)

and Equation (3.30). 95% confidence limits for Eq. (3.30) are included.

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

That is, the expected value of relative permittivity is practically independent of the fluctuations

in density, but the variance of relative permittivity is proportional to the variance of gas

density. Therefore, the intensity of light scattering is also proportional to the variance of gas

density. Figures 5 and 6 show the expected value and variance of the relative permittivity

calculated with Eq. (3.30) and (3.31), respectively, compared to the values obtained by MC

simulation for 2000 realizations. Different values for the standard deviation of gas density were

considered. The characteristic constant of the gas was assumed to be

m3/kg.

The mean density of the gas was assumed to be 1.176 kg/m3. Again, the equations derived are in

good agreement with the simulation results.

1.6E-04

MC simulation

1.4E-04

Calculated (3.31)

1.2E-04

1.0E-04

8.0E-05

6.0E-05

4.0E-05

2.0E-05

0.0E+00

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

fluctuations in density, between Monte Carlo simulation (2000 realizations) and Equation

(3.31).

Now, combining Equations (3.21), (3.23) and (3.32), the fluctuation in the relative permittivity

can be expressed as a function of small fluctuations in temperature and pressure, assuming an

ideal gas:

(

)(

) (

) )]

(3.32)

[

05/12/2016

)(

(

) ]

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variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases

Hugo Hernandez

ForsChem Research

hugo.hernandez@forschem.org

Thus, from (3.24) and (3.32), the intensity of light scattered by an ideal gas can be expressed as:

(

( )) [

)(

) (

)(

) )]

(3.33)

[

) ]

So, the intensity of the light scattered by an ideal gas will be influenced in a complex way, by

the fluctuations in both temperature and pressure, which on the other hand, depend on the

scale considered (i.e. volume ). This is an effect that can be used, for example, for relating

thermal diffusivity with scattering intensity [20].

In conclusion, variance algebra and power series expansions can be used to model the effect of

random variables in nonlinear systems. This was exemplarily shown for studying the effect of

temperature and pressure perturbations on the density and on the scattering of light for an

ideal gas. Monte Carlo simulations confirmed the validity of the proposed approach.

Acknowledgments

The author gratefully acknowledges the helpful discussions with Prof. Dr. Silvia Ochoa

(Universidad de Antioquia) and Prof. Jaime Aguirre (Universidad Nacional de Colombia).

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public,

commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

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[3] M. Kerker, The scattering of light and other electromagnetic radiation, Academic press,

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[4] H. Tennekes, J. L. Lumley, A first course in turbulence, MIT press, Boston, 1972.

[5] L. E. Reichl, I. Prigogine, A modern course in statistical physics, University of Texas press,

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Hugo Hernandez

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[13] K. Hasselmann, Stochastic climate models part I. Theory, Tellus 28 (1976) 473-485.

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[15] R. Durrett, Probability: theory and examples, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2010.

[16] I. S. Gradshteyn, I. M. Ryzhik, Table of integrals, series, and products, Academic press, San

Diego, 1980.

[17] J. C. Kotz, P. M. Treichel, J. Townsend, Chemistry and chemical reactivity, 8th ed., Cengage

Learning, Belmont, 2012.

[18] D. A. McQuarrie, Statistical Mechanics, Harper Collins Publishers, New York, 1976.

[19] R. Y. Rubinstein, D. P. Kroese, Simulation and the Monte Carlo method, 2nd ed., John Wiley

& Sons, Hoboken, 2008.

[20] B. Kruppa, J. Straub, Dynamic light scattering: An efficient method to determine thermal

diffusivity of transparent fluids, Experim. Thermal Fluid Sci. 6 (1993) 28-38.

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