Flixborough
Deepwater
Horizon
Bhopal
Buncefield
Fukusima
Texas City
1947
Philips
Three Miles
Island
1974
1979
1984
1989
http://www.acusafe.com/Incidents/Flixborough1974/incident-flixborough1974.html
BP Texas City
2005
http://toxipedia.org/display/toxipedia/Bhopal+Disaster
2010
2011
We
are
here
2012
2
Industrial incidents
Cause costly consequences (human, environment and property)
Hinder development
Damage reputation
Erode public trust
The disappearance of
Union Carbide Corporation
after Bhopal accident.
http://bama.ua.edu/~rdrogers/sandiego/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/07/bhopal-disaster-india-sentences
The slow
development of
nuclear industry.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power
Refining
Production, Operation and Maintenance
Transportation and Storage of
substance/materials
Understanding behavior of
substance under process
conditions
Computer simulation for reliable
prediction of safe operation
5
Mary Kay OConnor Process Safety Center. (2011). Process safety research agenda for the 21 st century. Policy document developed by a representation of the global process safety academia, College
Station, TX
- Dispersion of cloud
- Radiant heat calculation of fires
- Effects of explosion
- Probability estimates of injury and
fatality
- Probability calculation of damage
to structures and environment
Analysis (FMEA)
Human Errors/Factors
Management Focus
Safety Management System
Safety Culture
Body of
process safety
knowledge has
grown
impressively
over the years
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1971
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
reliability
Define and monitor indicative process safety
performance indicators
Security of highly hazardous chemicals
Hazardous waste treatment
Facility location and siting near populated areas
8
New Frontiers
Artic
Deep ocean
Shale gas
New Sources
New Technologies
http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090805/full/460677e.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/16/business/global/16arctic.html?_r=1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_clathrate
http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-18560_162-20072986.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/05/sci_nat_nanotechnology___building_the_future_from_the_bottom_up/html/1.stm
Engineering
- Frequentists vs. Bayesians
- Bayesian data processing
- Bayesian belief network
- Learning from Reliability Engineering
10
Human Error/Factors
Safety Culture
Resilience Engineering
Construction Design and Engineering
Expectation of Society
Risk communication and acceptability
- Voluntary risk vs. Involuntary risk
- Concept of risk is not well understood by public
decreasing
risk
Safety
margin
Minimally
Sufficient?
Increasing
risk
3
RISK
Communication Timeline
12
Expectation of Society
Risk perception and affecting factors
- Expected number of perceived fatalities or losses
- Catastrophic potential of the hazard
http://www.optical-illusionist.com/
events
13
Expectation of Society
Before Incidents:
- 11 fatalities
- Largest oil spill
Before Explosion
-Annular preventer closed but didnt seal
- VBR closed and sealed annulus
After explosion
- The emergency methods of activating the BOP failed (All 5 of
them)
Hazardous phenomena,
properties of substances
Inherently safer design
Topic
No.
8
Organizational safety
topics
Process + occupational
safety
9,10
6,7
6,7
17
18