Forecasting
Forecasting
BAB V
Peramalan (Forecasting)
Memprediksi kejadian masa depan
Pada umumnya menggambarkan
perilaku di masa lalu
Metode Kualitatif
Peramalan
Metode Kuantitatif
(Forecasting)
Tujuan strategis
peramalan
Fo
Fok
kus pada manajemen persediaan
Tujuan jangka pendek untuk
permintaan produksi
Tujuan jangka panjang untuk produk
baru, proses dan teknologi
Fo
Fok
kus pada Total Quality Management
Kepuasan pelanggan
Aliran produksi tanpa ada barang
yang cacat
Untuk perencanaan strategis
Komponen - Komponen
Peramalan
Time Frame
Demand
Demand
Random
movement
Time
(b) Cycle
Demand
Demand
Time
(a) Trend
Time
(c) Seasonal pattern
Time
(d) Trend with seasonal pattern
Kecenderungan (Trend
(Trend))
Suatu gerakan yang menunjukkan arah
gerakan secara umum (kecenderungan
naik atau turun)
Siklus (Cycle
(Cycle))
Gerakan/variasi jangka panjang
disekitar garis trend
Musiman (Seasonal
(Seasonal pattern)
pattern)
Fluktuasi permintaan secara periodik
akan berulang pada suatu waktu
tertentu
Fluktuasi bebas tidak tergantung pola
Fluktuasi Permintaan
Metode Peramalan
Runtun waktu (Time
(Time series)
series)
Regresi atau model kausal
Metode Kualitatif (Qualitative
(Qualitative methods)
methods)
Keputusan manajemen,
manajemen, pakar,
pakar,
pendapat manajemen, penjualan,
pemasaran,, teknik
pemasaran
Metode Delphi (Delphi
(Delphi method)
method)
Minta peramalan dari para pakar
Forecasting Process
1. Identify the purpose
of forecast
2. Collect
historical data
5. Develop/compute
forecast for period of
historical data
7.
Is accuracy
of forecast
acceptable
?
4. Select a forecast
model that seems
appropriate for data
10
Rata-rata Bergerak
Rata(Moving Average
Average))
Rata
Rata--rata beberapa
periode
period
e data
Menghaluskan
perubahan
Gunakan waktu
permintaan stabil
dengan tidak ada
kecenderungan
atau pola musim
n
Di
MAn =
i=1
n
dimana
n = jumlah periode waktu
rata--rata bergerak
rata
Di = permintaan waktu ke i
MAn = Moving Average keke-n
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Junii
Jun
Julii
Jul
Agust
Agust
Sept
Ok t
PASIEN OPERASI
PER BLN
120
90
100
75
110
50
75
130
110
90
11
Di
i=1
MA3 =
130 + 110 + 90
=
3
=1
110
10 pasien Nov
BLN
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Junii
Jun
Julii
Jul
Agust
Agust
Sept
Ok t
Nop
Nop
120
90
100
75
110
50
75
130
110
90
103.3
88.3
95.0
78.3
78.3
85.0
105.0
110.0
12
BLN
5
Di
i=1
MA5 =
90 + 110 + 130 + 75 + 50
=
5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Junii
Jun
Julii
Jul
Agust
Agust
Sept
Ok t
Nop
Nop
120
90
100
75
110
50
75
130
110
90
13
5-BULAN
MOVING AVERAGE
103.3
88.3
95.0
78.3
78.3
85.0
105.0
110.0
99.0
85.0
82.0
88.0
95.0
91.0
forecast
15
Efek Penghalusan
15
150
Jumlah pasien
sama dengan
moving average
hanya elemen
data dalam
bentuk bobot
5-bulan
125
100
75
3-bulan
50
Aktual
25
0
|
Jan
|
Feb
|
Mar
|
Apr
WMAn =
Wi Di
i=1
dimana
Wi = 1.00
|
Mei
|
|
Jun
Junii Juli
Juli
|
|
Agus
Agus Sept
|
Okt
|
Nop
Nop
Bulan
Weighted Moving
Average Example
BULAN
Agust
September
Oktober
BOBOT
DATA
17%
33%
50%
130
110
90
16
Metode ratarata-rata
Bobot yang lebih
besar pada data
terakhir
Memutakhirkan
ramalan atas dasar
periode per
periode
metod
metode
e akurat
Nop
Nopember forecast WMA3 =
Exponential Smoothing
Wi D i
i=1
Effect of Smoothing
Constant
0.0 1.0
jika = 0.20, maka Ft +1 = 0.20 Dt + 0.80 Ft
jika = 0, maka Ft +1 = 0 Dt + 1 Ft 0 = Ft
Forecast tidak menampilkan d
data
ata terbaru
jika = 1, maka Ft +1 = 1 Dt + 0 Ft = Dt
Forecast didasarkan pada data terbaru
17
Ft +1 = Dt + (1 - )Ft
dimana
Ft +1 = forecast untuk
periode yang akan
datang
Dt = permintaan nyata
untuk periode
sebelumnya
Ft = ramalan sebelumnya
= konstanta
penghalusan
18
19
Exponential Smoothing
PERIOD
BULAN
DEMAND
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Agust
Agust
Sep
Okt
Nop
Nop
Des
Des
37
40
41
37
45
50
43
47
56
52
55
54
F2 = D1 + (1 - )F1
= (0.30)(37) + (0.70)(37)
= 37
F3 = D2 + (1 - )F2
= (0.30)(40) + (0.70)(37)
= 37.9
F13 = D12 + (1 - )F12
= (0.30)(54) + (0.70)(50.84)
= 51.79
20
Exponential Smoothing
PERIOD
BULAN
DEMAND
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Agus
Agus
Sep
Okt
Nop
Nop
Des
Des
Jan
37
40
41
37
45
50
43
47
56
52
55
54
Exponential Smoothing
FORECAST, Ft + 1
( = 0.3)
37.00
37.90
38.83
38.28
40.29
43.20
43.14
44.30
47.81
49.06
50.84
51.79
BULAN
DEMAND
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Agust
Agust
Sep
Okt
Nop
Nop
Des
Des
Jan
37
40
41
37
45
50
43
47
56
52
55
54
37.00
37.90
38.83
38.28
40.29
43.20
43.14
44.30
47.81
49.06
50.84
51.79
37.00
38.50
39.75
38.37
41.68
45.84
44.42
45.71
50.85
51.42
53.21
53.61
23
AFt +1 = Ft +1 + Tt +1
= 0.50
Actual
FORECAST, Ft + 1
( = 0.3)
( = 0.5)
Adjusted Exponential
Smoothing
70
50
Orders
PERIOD
22
Exponential Smoothing
Forecasts
60
21
dimana
T = faktor trend penghalusan eksponensial
40
= 0.30
30
Tt +1 = (Ft +1 - Ft) + (1 - ) Tt
20
dimana
10
0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
12
|
13
bulan
24
Adjusted Exponential
Smoothing Example
PERIOD
MONTH
DEMAND
T3
= (F3 - F2) + (1 - ) T2
25
Adjusted Exponential
Smoothing Example
PERIOD
BULAN
DEMAND
FORECAST
Ft +1
TREND
Tt +1
ADJUSTED
FORECAST AFt +1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Agust
Agust
Sep
Okt
Nop
Nop
Des
Des
Jan
37
40
41
37
45
50
43
47
56
52
55
54
37.00
37.00
38.50
39.75
38.37
38.37
45.84
44.42
45.71
50.85
51.42
53.21
53.61
0.00
0.45
0.69
0.07
0.07
1.97
0.95
1.05
2.28
1.76
1.77
1.36
37.00
38.95
40.44
38.44
38.44
47.82
45.37
46.76
58.13
53.19
54.98
54.96
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Agust
Agust
Sep
Okt
Nop
Nop
Des
Des
37
40
41
37
45
50
43
47
56
52
55
54
= 0.45
AF3 = F3 + T3 = 38.5 + 0.45
= 38.95
T13 = (F13 - F12) + (1 - ) T12
= (0.30)(53.61 - 53.21) + (0.70)(1.77)
= 1.36
AF13 = F13 + T13 = 53.61 + 1.36 = 54.96
26
Adjusted Exponential
Smoothing Forecasts
70
27
y = a + bx
Adjusted forecast ((
= 0.30)
60
Actual
Demand
50
dimana
a = inters
intersep (pada periode
periode 0)
b = kemiringan/slope
kemiringan/slope
x = periode waktu
y = forecast untuk periode waktu x
40
Forecast (
( = 0.50)
30
20
10
0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
|
6
7
Period
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
12
|
13
28
x(PERIOD)
xy - nxy
b = x2 - nx2
a = y-bx
dimana
n = jumlah periode waktu
x
x = n = rata-rata nilai x
y
y = n = rata-rata nilai y
= 1.72
a = y - bx
= 46.42 - (1.72)(6.5)
= 35.2
xy
x2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
73
40
41
37
45
50
43
47
56
52
55
54
37
80
123
148
225
300
301
376
504
520
605
648
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144
78
557
3867
650
30
31
Trend Linier
70
60
y = 35.2 + 1.72x
50
Actual
Demand
78
x =
= 6.5
12
557
y =
= 46.42
12
xy - nxy
b = 2
x - nx2
3867 - (12)(6.5)(46.42)
= 650 - 12(6.5)2
y(DEMAND)
29
40
Linear trend line
30
20
10
0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
|
6
7
Period
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
12
|
13
Akurasi Peramalan
(Forecast Accuracy
Accuracy))
32
Error = Ak
Aktual - Forecast
Memperoleh metode yang
memperkecil kesalahan
Mean Absolute
Deviation (MAD)
Mean Absolute
Percent Deviation (MAPD)
Cumulative Error (E)
t = periode
periode
Dt = demand pada periode
periode t
Ft = forecast pada periode
periode t
n = jumlah periode
periode
= nilai absolut
DEMAND, Dt
Ft ( =0.3)
37
40
41
37
45
50
43
47
56
52
55
54
37.00
37.00
37.90
38.83
38.28
40.29
43.20
43.14
44.30
47.81
49.06
50.84
557
35
Contoh MAD
Contoh MAD
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
| Dt - Ft |
n
dimana
34
PERIOD
33
PERIOD
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
DEMAND, Dt
Ft ( =0.3)
(Dt - Ft)
|Dt - Ft|
37
40
41
37
45
50
43
47
56
52
55
54
37.00
37.00
37.90
38.83
38.28
40.29
43.20
43.14
44.30
47.81
49.06
50.84
3.00
3.10
-1.83
6.72
9.69
-0.20
3.86
11.70
4.19
5.94
3.15
3.00
3.10
1.83
6.72
9.69
0.20
3.86
11.70
4.19
5.94
3.15
49.31
53.39
557
36
Contoh MAD
PERIOD
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
DEMAND, Dt
37
40
41
37
MAD
45
50
43
47
56
52
55
54
=
=
=
Ft ( =0.3)
(Dt - Ft)
Ukuran Akurasi
|Dt - Ft|
37.00
37.00
3.00
37.90
3.10
|| D
t - Ft | -1.83
38.83
n
38.28
6.72
40.29
9.69
53.39
43.20
-0.20
11
43.14
3.86
44.30
11.70
47.81
4.19
4.85
49.06
5.94
50.84
3.15
3.00
3.10
1.83
6.72
9.69
0.20
3.86
11.70
4.19
5.94
3.15
49.31
53.39
557
37
|Dt - Ft|
D t
Cumulative error
E = e t
Average error
e t
E= n
38
Perbandingan
39
Kontrol Peramalan
FORECAST
MAD
MAPD
(E)
Exponential smoothing (
( = 0.30)
Exponential smoothing (
( = 0.50)
Adjusted exponential smoothing
( = 0.50, = 0.30)
Linear trend line
4.85
4.04
3.81
9.6%
8.5%
8.1%
49.31
33.21
21.14
4.48
3.02
1.92
2.29
4.9%
10
40
Tracking Signal
Hitung masingmasing-masing periode
Bandingkan dengan batasan
Forecast terkendali jika tidak melewati
batas
Tracking signal =
(Dt - Ft)
E
=
MAD
MAD
DEMAND
Dt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
37
40
41
37
45
50
43
47
56
52
55
54
FORECAST,
Ft
ERROR
D t - Ft
E =
(Dt - Ft)
MAD
37.00
37.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
37.90
3.10
6.10
3.05
38.83
-1.83
4.27
2.64
Tracking signal
3
38.28
6.72 untuk
10.99period
3.66
40.29
9.69
20.68
4.87
43.20
-0.20 6.1020.48
4.09
=
= 2.004.06
43.14 TS33.86
3.0524.34
44.30
11.70
36.04
5.01
47.81
4.19
40.23
4.92
49.06
5.94
46.17
5.02
50.84
3.15
49.32
4.85
42
DEMAND
Dt
FORECAST,
Ft
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
37
40
41
37
45
50
43
47
56
52
55
54
37.00
37.00
37.90
38.83
38.28
40.29
43.20
43.14
44.30
47.81
49.06
50.84
ERROR
D t - Ft
3.00
3.10
-1.83
6.72
9.69
-0.20
3.86
11.70
4.19
5.94
3.15
E =
(Dt - Ft)
3.00
6.10
4.27
10.99
20.68
20.48
24.34
36.04
40.23
46.17
49.32
MAD
3.00
3.05
2.64
3.66
4.87
4.09
4.06
5.01
4.92
5.02
4.85
43
DEMAND
Dt
FORECAST,
Ft
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
37
40
41
37
45
50
43
47
56
52
55
54
37.00
37.00
37.90
38.83
38.28
40.29
43.20
43.14
44.30
47.81
49.06
50.84
ERROR
D t - Ft
3.00
3.10
-1.83
6.72
9.69
-0.20
3.86
11.70
4.19
5.94
3.15
E =
(Dt - Ft)
3.00
6.10
4.27
10.99
20.68
20.48
24.34
36.04
40.23
46.17
49.32
41
MAD
3.00
3.05
2.64
3.66
4.87
4.09
4.06
5.01
4.92
5.02
4.85
TRACKING
SIGNAL
1.00
2.00
1.62
3.00
4.25
5.01
6.00
7.19
8.18
9.20
10.17
11
44
Tracking Signal
Plot
45
3
2
Exponential smoothing (
= 0.30)
1
0
-1
-2
-3
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
Period
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
12
46
Statistical Control
Charts
18.39
(Dt - Ft)2
n-1
47
UCL = +3
12.24
Errors
6.12
0
-6.12
-12.24
-18.39
|
0
LCL = -3
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
Period
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
12
12
FC entry form
Forecasting setup
48
49
Isi 1
klik
Isi 3
klik
Hasil peramalan
50
Grafik forecasting
51
13
52
53
dimana
a = inters
intersep ((pada
pada periode
periode 0)
b = kemiringan
x
= ratarata-rata x
n
y
y = n = ratarata-rata y
x =
y = a + bx
54
55
y
xy
x2
4
6
6
8
6
7
5
7
36.3
40.1
41.2
53.0
44.0
45.6
39.0
47.5
145.2
240.6
247.2
424.0
264.0
319.2
195.0
332.5
16
36
36
64
36
49
25
49
49
346.7
2167.7
311
49
= 6.125
8
346.9
y=
= 43.36
8
x=
b=
xy - nxy2
x2 - nx2
(2,167.7) - (8)(6.125)(43.36)
(311) - (8)(6.125)2
= 4.06
a = y - bx
= 43.36 - (4.06)(6.125)
= 18.46
14
56
57
Persamaan regresi
Attendance, y
y = 18.46 + 4.06x
Peramalan y untuk x = 7
y = 18.46 + 4.06(7)
= 46.88, or 46,880
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
Wins, x
58
59
Perhitungan Korelasi
Korelasi (Correlation
Correlation)), r
r=
Mengukur
Mengukur kekuatan hubungan
Nilai antara -1.00 dan +1.00
r=
n xy - x y
[n
x2
- ( x)2] [[n
n y2 - ( y)2]
(8)(2,167.7) - (49)(346.9)
[(8)(311) - (49)2] [[(8)(15,224.7)
(8)(15,224.7) - (346.9)2]
r = 0.947
Koefisien Determinasi
r2 = (0.947)2 = 0.897
15
60
61
62
63
Regresi Berganda
Mempelajari hubungan antara 2 atau
lebih variabel bebas
y = 0 + 1x1 + 2x2 + kxk
dimana
0 = intersep
intersep
1, , k = parameter variab
variabel
el bebas
x1, , xk = variabel bebas (independent
variables))
variables
FC entry form
klik
16
64
65
klik
66
17