marzot6 ‘34 years return —FD, Geld, Svar & Sansex « Wise Wealth Advisors
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D.Muthukrishnan (Muthu), Certified Financial Planner-
Personal Financial Advisor
34 years return — FD, Gold, Silver & Sensex
Posted by Muthu on April 22, 2013
Please find attached 3 files
a) 34 years return- FD & Sensex
b) 3dyears return. Sense:
c) 34.years return- Silver & Sensex
Why 34 years? Only in 1979-80, Sensex came into existence with base as 100,
1) Assume you've invested Rs.1 lakh each in FD, gold, silver and Sensex 34 years ago. As of 31’st
March 2013 the value is as follows: FD- Rs.15.5 lakhs, Gold- Rs.37.17 lakhs,
and Sensex- Rs.1.88 crores
2) Unlike other assets mentioned above, Sensex has dividend yield in addition to capital growth.
Assuming a dividend yield of 2% on an average, the Sensex returns work out to Rs.3.35 crores
3) _ In terms of percentage, the 34 years return (as given above) is as follows: FD-8.39%, Gold-
11.21%, Silver- 11.05% and Sensex- 16.65% (18.65% if dividend yield is as assumed above)
4) When we talk about returns, we've to talk about inflation too. The average annualized
inflation for the above period is 7.63%.
5) _IfRs.1 lakh has been kept under the mattress instead of being invested, it’s value has come
down to mere Rupees seven thousand (ie.) purchasing power of rupee reduced by whopping
93% over 34 year period.
6) What we should look for is real returns (j.e.) returns after inflation and taxes. Since tax differs
from each asset class and income category, I've taken only inflation. Inflation is common for all:-)
7) After adjusting for inflation, the asset classes have grown by following annualized rate in real
terms. FD- 0.11%, Gold-2.72%, Silver-2.57% and Sensex- 7.74% (around 10% including dividend
yield). These numbers matter a lot. This is what our wealth would have grown after adjusting for
inflation, Since we know the tax details for each asset class and for our income, we can work out
hipe:iwisewealbadvisors.com/20"304/2094-years-relu
(gold. siver-sonsex! 1Mrar%6 ‘i years retin FD, Gal, Svar & Sensex «Wise Weallh Advisors
the return after taxes too. FD would automatically turn negative. Gold and Silver, despite run up in
the recent years, would have provided a negligible return. Only equity would have provided a real
rate of return of above 6%
8) Inthe long run, the best we can aim and get even in asset classes like equity and real estate is
real return of around 4%+. Growing money is that difficult. More important is not loosing the
money.
9) Gold's real rate of return of 2.72% is made possible due to rupee significantly depreciating,
between 1980s to early last decade. Otherwise we might have got even a negative return. Ill
explain this by example. Assume the rupee dollar conversion rate is 1 USD = Rs.50. For illustration
purposes, let us assume the price of 1 gram of gold is 1 USD. With the above conversion rate, the
value of 1 gm of gold is Rs.50. Imagine a scenario when rupee depreciates by 100% (i.e.) 1 USD =
Rs.100/- The gold price remains the same at 1 USD. The value of our gold would increase by 100%
to Rs.100/- though the price has not changed in the international markets and we being the net
importer of gold.
10) Any one who talks about increase in gold price for 50 years, 75 years or 100 years (I’m seeing
many ads), without accounting for currency changes is fooling others. I've taken the gold price
data from RBI. I don’t know about the authenticity of prices shown in many ads.
11) Please use FD for contingency or emergency funds. Let gold be part of social requirement and
not exceed 5% to 10% of investment portfolio. Silver is again part of only social or cultural needs.
Sensex / Equity is for building wealth. I believe real estate also can build wealth but has no reliable
long term past data.
12) The last 5 to 6 years increase in gold prices have mainly come from speculators who invested in
ETFs, gold futures etc. and not from jewelry demand. Speculators can move out as swiftly as they
moved in.
13) There are people who are saying gold would not go below $1300 as cost of production (break
even price) is the same amount. Gold is not a typical consumer product which is sold at cost plus
profit margins. Gold miners do not decide the gold price. They merely enjoy or suffer according to
gold prices. Gold prices are influenced by a number of complex factors whereas fresh supply from
miners is less than 2% of the annual demand
14) Please go through the workings and assumptions in the attached file. I've tried my best. It may
not be perfect but would be a useful pointer. Request your opinion and feedback.
This entry was posted on April 22, 2013 at 5:37 pm and is filed under Basics, Gold, Muthu's
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8 Responses to “34 years return — FD, Gold, Silver & Sensex”
1.lakshmipathy said
(gold. siver-sonsex! 2marzot6 ‘34 years reir FD, Geld, Svar & Sensex « Wise Wealth Advisors
Excellently written. Thanks
Reply
2.amol said
April 23, 2013 at 2:22 am
Mutu,
interesting data. thanks for the efforts you have taken to collect this data and presenting in
understandable manner
Reply
3. S.Ravikumar said
April 23, 2013 at 11:02 am
wonderful efforts, and thanks for sharing this Golden information.
ravikumar
Reply
4. varghese said
April 25, 2013 at 9:30 am
real facts. please write regularly. your blogs can be smaller but write regularly
Reply
. Jegadeeswaran said
ber 3, 2013 at 3:54 pm
good one, thanks for sharing this — Jegadeesh , Sundaram mutual , Madurai
Reply
6. C D'Souza said
June 20, 2014 at 12:38 pm
Wow. Excellent article based on real historical data. So rare to find articles like this in the Indian
context.
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(gold. siver-sonsex! amarzot6 ‘34 years reir FD, Geld, Svar & Sensex « Wise Wealth Advisors
7. MOHAN said
October 10, 2014 at 3:56 pm
IT WAS AN EYE OPENER.THANKS A MILLION FOR TAKING PAINS TO OPEN A
LAYMANS EYES.IT HAS BENEFITED ME IMMENSELY
Reply
8. Biswajit Mondal said
March 8, 2016 at 12:57 pm
Its a fantastic mind setting chart for understand & compare before investing
Reply
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