The U.S.

Economy
Pre-stimulus/Post-stimulus
Michael Norman
JTF Chief Economist

Gross Domestic Product

(Y-o-Y % change)

4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6

Stimulus enacted

Unemployment Rate
11

10

Stimulus enacted

Total Nonfarm Payrolls

(M-o-M change thousands)

600

400

200

-200

-400

-600

-800

-1000

Stimulus enacted

Total Private Payrolls

(M-o-M change thousands)

400

200

-200

-400

-600

-800

Stimulus enacted
-1000

Industrial Production
105

100

95

90

85

Stimulus enacted
80

Capacity Utilization
(percent)

85

80

75

70

65

60

Stimulus enacted

Total Vehicle Sales

(million units)

18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8

Stimulus enacted

Housing Starts
(thous units)

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

Stimulus enacted

Stock Market
(S&P 500 Index)

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

Stimulus enacted
600

Dollar Index
95

90

85

80

75

70

Stimulus enacted

10yr Treasury Yield

(percent)

6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1

Stimulus enacted

U. Of Mich Confidence Survey

100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50

Stimulus enacted

Retail Sales
(billions $)

420

400

380

360

340

320

300

Stimulus enacted

Personal Income
(Y-o-Y % change)

-2

-4

-6

Stimulus enacted
-8

Personal Saving
(billions $)

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

Stimulus enacted

Total Business Investment

(billions $)

2450

2250

2050

1850

1650

1450

1250

Stimulus enacted

Corporate Profits
(billions $)

2200

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

Stimulus enacted

CPI

(Y-o-Y % change)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2

Stimulus enacted
-3

ISM PMI Index

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

Stimulus enacted

Oil

(WTI $ per barrel)

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

Stimulus enacted

Household Net Worth

(billions $)

68000
66000
64000
62000
60000
58000
56000
54000
52000
50000

Stimulus enacted

Disclosure

This information provided in this publication is for informational purposes only. Investors should consider this
report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This information report is not an offer to
sell or a solicitation to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal.
This report has been prepared as a matter of general information. It is not intended to be a complete
description of any security or company mentioned, and is not an offer to buy or sell any security. All facts and
statistics are from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Additional
information of these securities and companies is available upon request. Securities, financial instruments or
strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. This material does not take into account
your particular investment objectives, financial situations or strategies. Before acting on the materials
herein, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary seek
professional advice. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses. Past
performance is no guarantee of future performance. Trading and investment decisions are the sole
responsibility of the reader.