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TheDictatorshipofData

Business Report

The Dictatorship of Data

Robert McNamara epitomizes the hyper-rational executive led astray by
numbers.
by Kenneth Cukier and Viktor Mayer-Schnberger

May 31, 2013

Data can mislead as well as inform.

ig data is poised to transform society, from how we diagnose

illnesstohowweeducatechildren,evenmakingitpossibleforacar

todriveitself.Informationisemergingasaneweconomicinput,avital
resource.Companies,governments,andevenindividualswillbemeasuring
andoptimizingeverythingpossible.

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Body count: U.S. Defense Secretary Robert McNamara brieng the press on Vietnam at the Pentagon in 1965.

Butthereisadarkside.Bigdataerodesprivacy.Andwhenitisusedto
makepredictionsaboutwhatwearelikelytodobuthaventyetdone,it
threatensfreedomaswell.Yetbigdataalsoexacerbatesaveryoldproblem:
relyingonthenumberswhentheyarefarmorefalliblethanwethink.
Nothingunderscorestheconsequencesofdataanalysisgoneawrymore
thanthestoryofRobertMcNamara.
McNamarawasanumbersguy.AppointedtheU.S.secretaryofdefense
whentensionsinVietnamroseintheearly1960s,heinsistedongetting
dataoneverythinghecould.Onlybyapplyingstatisticalrigor,hebelieved,
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This story is part of our July/August 2013 Issue

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coulddecisionmakersunderstandacomplexsituationandmaketheright
choices.Theworldinhisviewwasamassofunrulyinformationthatif
delineated,denoted,demarcated,andquantiedcouldbetamedby
humanhandandfallunderhumanwill.McNamarasoughtTruth,andthat
Truthcouldbefoundindata.Amongthenumbersthatcamebacktohim
wasthebodycount.
McNamaradevelopedhisloveofnumbersasastudentatHarvardBusiness
Schoolandthenasitsyoungestassistantprofessoratage24.Heappliedthis
rigorduringtheSecondWorldWaraspartofanelitePentagonteamcalled
StatisticalControl,whichbroughtdatadrivendecisionmakingtooneofthe
worldslargestbureaucracies.Beforethis,themilitarywasblind.Itdidnt
know,forinstance,thetype,quantity,orlocationofspareairplaneparts.
Datacametotherescue.Justmakingarmamentprocurementmoreecient
saved$3.6billionin1943.Modernwardemandedtheecientallocationof
resources;theteamsworkwasastunningsuccess.
Atwarsend,themembersofthisgroupoeredtheirskillstocorporate
America.TheFordMotorCompanywasoundering,andadesperateHenry
FordIIhandedthemthereins.Justastheyknewnothingaboutthemilitary
whentheyhelpedwinthewar,sotooweretheycluelessaboutmakingcars.
Still,thesocalledWhizKidsturnedthecompanyaround.
McNamararoseswiftlyuptheranks,trottingoutadatapointforevery
situation.Harriedfactorymanagersproducedthegureshedemanded
whethertheywerecorrectornot.Whenanedictcamedownthatall
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inventoryfromonecarmodelmustbeusedbeforeanewmodelcouldbegin
production,exasperatedlinemanagerssimplydumpedexcesspartsintoa
nearbyriver.Thejokeatthefactorywasthatafellowcouldwalkonwater
atoprustedpiecesof1950and1951cars.
McNamaraepitomizedthehyperrationalexecutivewhoreliedonnumbers
ratherthansentiments,andwhocouldapplyhisquantitativeskillstoany
industryheturnedthemto.In1960hewasnamedpresidentofFord,a
positionheheldforonlyafewweeksbeforebeingtappedtojoinPresident
Kennedyscabinetassecretaryofdefense.
AstheVietnamconictescalatedandtheUnitedStatessentmoretroops,it
becameclearthatthiswasawarofwills,notofterritory.Americasstrategy
wastopoundtheVietCongtothenegotiationtable.Thewaytomeasure
progress,therefore,wasbythenumberofenemykilled.Thebodycountwas
publisheddailyinthenewspapers.Tothewarssupportersitwasproofof
progress;tocritics,evidenceofitsimmorality.Thebodycountwasthedata
pointthatdenedanera.
McNamarareliedonthegures,fetishizedthem.Withhisperfectly
combedbackhairandhisawlesslyknottedtie,McNamarafelthecould
comprehendwhatwashappeningonthegroundonlybystaringata
spreadsheetatallthoseorderlyrowsandcolumns,calculationsandcharts,
whosemasteryseemedtobringhimonestandarddeviationclosertoGod.
In1977,twoyearsafterthelasthelicopterliftedotherooftopoftheU.S.
embassyinSaigon,aretiredArmygeneral,DouglasKinnard,publisheda
landmarksurveycalledTheWarManagersthatrevealedthequagmireof
quantication.Amere2percentofAmericasgeneralsconsideredthebody
countavalidwaytomeasureprogress.Afaketotallyworthless,wroteone
generalinhiscomments.Oftenblatantlies,wroteanother.Theywere
grosslyexaggeratedbymanyunitsprimarilybecauseoftheincredible
interestshownbypeoplelikeMcNamara,saidathird.
Theuse,abuse,andmisuseofdatabytheU.S.militaryduringtheVietnam
Warisatroublinglessonaboutthelimitationsofinformationastheworld
hurlstowardthebigdataera.Theunderlyingdatacanbeofpoorquality.It
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canbebiased.Itcanbemisanalyzedorusedmisleadingly.Andevenmore
damning,datacanfailtocapturewhatitpurportstoquantify.
Wearemoresusceptiblethanwemaythinktothedictatorshipofdata
thatis,tolettingthedatagovernusinwaysthatmaydoasmuchharmas
good.Thethreatisthatwewillletourselvesbemindlesslyboundbythe
outputofouranalysesevenwhenwehavereasonablegroundsfor
suspectingthatsomethingisamiss.Educationseemsontheskids?Push
standardizedteststomeasureperformanceandpenalizeteachersorschools.
Wanttopreventterrorism?Createlayersofwatchlistsandnoylistsin
ordertopolicetheskies.Wanttoloseweight?Buyanapptocountevery
caloriebuteschewactualexercise.
Thedictatorshipofdataensnareseventhebestofthem.Googleruns
everythingaccordingtodata.Thatstrategyhasledtomuchofitssuccess.
Butitalsotripsupthecompanyfromtimetotime.Itscofounders,Larry
PageandSergeyBrin,longinsistedonknowingalljobcandidatesSAT
scoresandtheirgradepointaverageswhentheygraduatedfromcollege.In
theirthinking,therstnumbermeasuredpotentialandthesecond
measuredachievement.Accomplishedmanagersintheir40swerehounded
forthescores,totheiroutrightbaement.Thecompanyevencontinuedto
demandthenumberslongafteritsinternalstudiesshowednocorrelation
betweenthescoresandjobperformance.
Googleoughttoknowbetter,toresistbeingseducedbydatasfalsecharms.
Themeasureleaveslittleroomforchangeinapersonslife.Itcountsbook
smartsattheexpenseofknowledge.Anditmaynotreectthequalications
ofpeoplefromthehumanities,whereknowhowmaybelessquantiable
thaninscienceandengineering.GooglesobsessionwithsuchdataforHR
purposesisespeciallyqueerconsideringthatthecompanysfoundersare
productsofMontessorischools,whichemphasizelearning,notgrades.By
Googlesstandards,neitherBillGatesnorMarkZuckerbergnorSteveJobs
wouldhavebeenhired,sincetheylackcollegedegrees.
Googlesdeferencetodatahasbeentakentoextremes.Todeterminethe
bestcolorofatoolbaronthewebsite,MarissaMayer,whenshewasoneof
GooglestopexecutivesbeforegoingtoYahoo,onceorderedstatotest41
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gradationsofbluetoseewhichonespeopleusedmore.In2009,Googles
topdesigner,DouglasBowman,quitinahubecausehecouldntstandthe
constantquanticationofeverything.Ihadarecentdebateoverwhethera
bordershouldbe3,4or5pixelswide,andwasaskedtoprovemycase.I
cantoperateinanenvironmentlikethat,hewroteonablogannouncing
hisresignation.Whenacompanyislledwithengineers,itturnsto
engineeringtosolveproblems.Reduceeachdecisiontoasimplelogic
problem.Thatdataeventuallybecomesacrutchforeverydecision,
paralyzingthecompany.
Thisisthedictatorshipofdata.Anditrecallsthethinkingthatledthe
UnitedStatestoescalatetheVietnamWarpartlyonthebasisofbody
counts,ratherthanbasingdecisionsonmoremeaningfulmetrics.Itistrue
enoughthatnoteveryconceivablecomplexhumansituationcanbefully
reducedtothelinesonagraph,ortopercentagepointsonachart,orto
guresonabalancesheet,saidMcNamarainaspeechin1967,asdomestic
protestsweregrowing.Butallrealitycanbereasonedabout.Andnotto
quantifywhatcanbequantiedisonlytobecontentwithsomethingless
thanthefullrangeofreason.Ifonlytherightdatawereusedintheright
way,notrespectedfordatassake.
RobertStrangeMcNamarawentontoruntheWorldBankthroughoutthe
1970s,thenpaintedhimselfasadoveinthe1980s.Hebecameanoutspoken
criticofnuclearweaponsandaproponentofenvironmentalprotection.
Laterinlifeheproducedamemoir,InRetrospect,thatcriticizedthe
thinkingbehindthewarandhisowndecisionsassecretaryofdefense.We
werewrong,terriblywrong,hefamouslywrote.ButMcNamara,whodied
in2009atage93,wasreferringtothewarsbroadstrategy.Onthequestion
ofdata,andofbodycountsinparticular,heremainedunrepentant.He
admittedthatmanyofthestatisticsweremisleadingorerroneous.But
thingsyoucancount,yououghttocount.Lossoflifeisone.
Bigdatawillbeafoundationforimprovingthedrugswetake,thewaywe
learn,andtheactionsofindividuals.However,theriskisthatits
extraordinarypowersmaylureustocommitthesinofMcNamara:to
becomesoxatedonthedata,andsoobsessedwiththepowerandpromise
itoers,thatwefailtoappreciateitsinherentabilitytomislead.
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KennethCukieristhedataeditorofTheEconomist.ViktorMayer
SchnbergerisaprofessorofInternetgovernanceandregulationatthe
OxfordInternetInstituteintheU.K.TheyaretheauthorsofBigData:A
RevolutionThatWillTransformHowWeLive,Work,andThink(Houghton
MiinHarcourt,2013),fromwhichthisarticlewasadapted.

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