Jun 2016
Slow growth
China boom
2,200
1990-2000
2001-2007
Idle capacity:
ca. 650m (28%)
2,000
1,800
1,600
GDP%
1,400
(90-13 / 14-15)
1,200
Latam: 3% / 3%
1,000
800
NA:
2% / 2%
CIS:
1% / 1%
600
Europe: 2% / 0%
400
Asia:
200
3% / 3%
China: 10% / 8%
Other
Source: worldsteel
Latin America
North America
CIS
WE
Asia
China
110
90
+52%
66
59
58
53
49
47
19
10
Source: worldsteel
24
Other
Latam
MENA
Asia
41
26
SEA
761 778
2000
01
825
02
885
03
975
04
Overseas trade1
1,045
05
1,145
06
1,224 1,228
07
08
1,307
1,411 1,437
1,148
09
Intraregional supply
10
11
12
132
14 2015
Domestic supply
1 Approximated by interregional and intraregional trade flows (export statistics as reported by individual countries)
2 Discontinuity in official reporting, leading to an apparent jump in total finished steel demand
Source: worldsteel
Consensus (Mean)
Hot rolled coil price outlook by analysts1, USD/metric ton, nominal terms
Europe
USA
650
600
550
500
450
Forecast
Ineffective global
regulation
resulting in the
implementation
of unilateral
protectionism
barriers that
generate
islands where
prices are higher
than world
average
0
700
650
600
550
500
0
600
500
Asia2
400
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
2015
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2016
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2017
Q2
Q3
2018
Q4
Global effects
Substantial overcapacity
Supported by governmental
subsidies
Villaceros Profile
Overview
Commercial
Industrial
Logistics
Financial
Group
International presence
Draft + Confidential