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System Dynamics

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06

System

Dynamics

Analisis Sistem

suatu sistem melalui (menggunakan) suatu model.

Sistem

Model

Permodelan

Komputer

Simulasi

Introduction

Knowing how to do simulation doesnt make someone a

good systems designer

Simulation is a tool that is useful only if one

understands the nature of the problem to be solved

Simulation is designed to help solve systemic problems

that are operational in nature.

Introduction

Simulation exercises fail to produce useful

result more often because of a lack of

understanding of system dynamics than a lack

of knowing how to use the simulation software

The challenge is in understanding how the

system operates, knowing what you want to

achieve with the system, and being able to

identify key leverage points for best achieving

desired objective.

Objectives

What is system?

What are the elements of a system?

What makes systems so complex?

What are useful system metrics?

What is a system approach to systems planning?

with simulation?

System Definition

A system is defined as a collection of elements

that function together to achieve a desired goal

(Blanchard, 1991)

Key points include:

These elements are interrelated and work in

cooperation.

A system exists for the purpose of achieving specific

objectives.

System Identity

ELEMENTS

INTERRELATIONSHIP

GOAL

PERFORMANCE

ENVIRONMENT

System Definition

Examples of systems:

Traffic systems

Political systems

Economic systems

Manufacturing systems

Service systems

Main focus

materials, information, and people.

System Definition

Manufacturing systems:

Machining cells

Large production

facilities

Assembly lines

Warehousing

Distribution

Service systems:

Call centers

Amusement parks

Public transportation

systems

Restaurant

Bank

etc

System Definition

Both manufacturing and service systems may be

termed processing systems.

Processing systems:

Artificial (human-made)

Usually stochastic (they exhibit random behavior)

System Elements

From a simulation perspective, a system consists of

entities, activities, resources, controls.

The elements define the who, what, where, when, and

how of entity processing.

Incoming entities

Outgoing entities

Activities

Resources

Controls

System

System Elements

Entities:

products, customers, and documents.

such as cost, shape, priority, quality, or condition.

We called them Attributes.

divided into:

inanimate (parts, documents, bins, etc.)

intangible (calls, electronic mail, etc.)

System Elements

systems] discrete items.

systems] non discrete substance

Example: oil refineries, paper mills

System Elements

Activities

indirectly) in the processing of entities.

example:

Servicing a customer

cutting a part on machine

System Elements

Activities .

resources

Classified as:

entity processing (check-in, treatment, inspection,

fabrication, etc.)

entity and resource movement (forklift travel, riding in an

elevator, etc.)

resource adjustments, maintenance, and repairs (machine

setups, copy machine repair, etc.)

System Elements

Resources

the

provide

and personnel for carrying out activities.

can

at which processing can take place

have

cycle time, and reliability.

System Elements

etc.)

dedicated or shared

permanent or consumable

mobile or stationary

System Elements

Controls

performed.

[at the highest level] consists of schedules, plan,

and policies.

[at the lowest level] take the forms of written

procedures and machine control logic.

[at all levels] provide the information and decision

logic for how the system should operate.

logic for how the system should operate.

Routing sequences

Production plans

Work schedules

Task prioritization

Control software

Instruction sheets

System Complexity

Elements of a system operate with one another in ways

that often result in complex interactions.

Unaided human intuition is not very good at analyzing

and understanding complex systems.

Inability of the human mind to grasp real-world

complexity is called as the principle of bounded

rationality (Herbert Simon).

System Complexity

This principle states that the capacity of human mind

for formulating and solving complex problem is very

small compared with the size of problem whose

solution is required for objectively rational behavior in

the real world, or even for a reasonable approximation

to such objective rationality (Simon, 1957).

System Complexity

System complexity is a primary function of two

factors:

element affects other elements.

uncertainty.

System Complexity

The degree of analytical difficulty increases

exponentially as the number of interdependencies and

random variables increase.

Metrics are measures used to assess the performance of

a system.

At the highest level of an organization or business,

metrics measure overall performance in terms of

profits, revenues, cost relative to budget, return on

assets, and so on.

performance, and are reported only periodically

From an operational standpoint, it is more beneficial to

track such factors as time, quality, quantity, efficiency,

and utilization.

directly controllable

Key operational metrics that describe the

effectiveness and efficiency of manufacturing

and service systems:

Flow time

Utilization

Value-added time

Waiting time

Flow rate

Inventory or queue levels

Yield

Customer responsiveness

Variance

System Variables

Designing a new system or improving an existing system

requires more than simply identifying the elements and

performance goals of the system.

It requires an understanding of how system elements

affect each other and overall performance objectives.

System Variables

Three types of system variable must be

identified:

Decision variables

Response variables

State variables

System Variables

Decision variables

variables affects the behavior of the system

System Variables

Response variables

particular decision variable settings.

dependent variable.

values or settings of decision variables that give the

desired response value.

System Variables

State variables

specific point in time.

variable changes over time.

System Optimization

variables that best meets performance objectives.

Optimization seeks the best combination of decision

variable values that either minimizes or maximizes

some objective functions such as costs or profits.

An objective function is a response variable of the

system.

System Optimization

A typical objective in an optimization problem for a

manufacturing or system systems:

minimizing costs

limits the values of decision variables.

System Optimization

In some instances, there are problems of conflicting

objectives.

System Approach

The defining characteristic of a system is that it cannot be

understood as a function of its isolated components. First, the

behavior of the system doesnt depend on what each part is

doing but on how each part is interacting with the rest Second,

to understand a system we need to understand how it fits into

the larger system of which it is a part Third, and most

important, what we call the parts need not be taken as primary.

In fact, how we define the parts is fundamentally a matter of

perspective and purpose, not intrinsic in the nature of the real

thing we are looking at.

System Approach

Due to departmentalization and specialization,

decisions in the real world often made without regard

to overall system performance.

Approaching system design with overall objectives in

mind and considering how each element relates to each

other and to the whole is called a systems or holistic

approach to system design.

System Approach

Four-step iterative approach to systems improvement

System Approach

Identifying problems and opportunities

problem, identifying key variables, and describing

important relationships.

leverage points for applying a solution.

Techniques such as cause-and-effect analysis and

Pareto analysis are useful.

System Approach

look for the greatest improvement opportunities.

creatively and often results in breakthrough

improvement

System Approach

Developing alternative solutions

and key decision variables isolated, alternative

solution can be explored.

expertise comes into play.

as well as organizational and engineering skills.

encourages thinking in radical new ways.

System Approach

Evaluating the solutions

their ability to meet the criteria established for the

evaluation.

implementation, impact on the socio-technical

infrastructure, and consistency with organizational

strategies.

absolute terms.

System Approach

promising solutions using common sense and roughcut analysis, more precise evaluation techniques

may need to be used.

tools come into play.

System Approach

Selecting and implementing the best solution

is not left to the analyst, but rather a management

decision.

clearest way possible so that an informed decision can

be made.

and analysis are often needed for fine-tuning the

solution.

the system is implemented as designed, documenting

reasons for any modifications.

SYSTEM

Experiment

with the actual

system

Experiment

with a model

of the system

Physical

Model

Mathematical

Model

Analytical

solution

Simulation

While simulation is perhaps the most versatile and

powerful system analysis tool, other available

techniques also can be useful in planning.

These alternative techniques are usually computational

methods that work well for simple systems with little

interdependency and variability.

For more complex systems, these techniques still can

provide rough estimates but fall short in producing the

insights and accurate answers that simulation provides.

Simulation improves performance predictability

System predictability

100%

With

simulation

50%

0%

Without

simulation

Call centers

Doctors offices

Machining cells

Low

Banks

Emergency rooms

Production Lines

Medium

System Complexity

Airports

Hospitals

Factories

High

In addition to simulation, system analysis tools

include:

Hand calculations

Spreadsheet

Hand calculations

calculations can be remarkably helpful in

understanding basic requirements for a system

calculation yields the needed results.

perform complex calculations or to take into

account tens or potentially even hundreds of

complex relationship simultaneously.

Spreadsheets

based on expected values and simple interactions.

getting rough performance estimates.

Some potential problems are not readily apparent

All behavior is assumed to be period-driven rather than

event-driven

models to solve problems involving simple to

moderately complex relationships.

These mathematical models include both

deterministic models (e.g. mathematical

programming, routing, or network flows) and

probabilistic models (e.g. queuing and decision

trees).

answers without going through the guesswork

process of trial and error.

descriptive

Prescriptive techniques (Analytical techniques)

linear programming, dynamic programming

do not allow random variables

conditions are constant over the period of study

Descriptive techniques

that provide good estimates for basic problems

than a complete picture of performance over time

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