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Week

06

System
Dynamics
Analisis Sistem

System, Model, and Simulation

Simulasi suatu upaya untuk menirukan beroperasinya


suatu sistem melalui (menggunakan) suatu model.

Sistem

Model

Permodelan

Komputer

Simulasi

Introduction
Knowing how to do simulation doesnt make someone a
good systems designer
Simulation is a tool that is useful only if one
understands the nature of the problem to be solved
Simulation is designed to help solve systemic problems
that are operational in nature.

Introduction
Simulation exercises fail to produce useful
result more often because of a lack of
understanding of system dynamics than a lack
of knowing how to use the simulation software
The challenge is in understanding how the
system operates, knowing what you want to
achieve with the system, and being able to
identify key leverage points for best achieving
desired objective.

Objectives
What is system?
What are the elements of a system?
What makes systems so complex?
What are useful system metrics?
What is a system approach to systems planning?

How do systems analysis techniques compare


with simulation?

System Definition
A system is defined as a collection of elements
that function together to achieve a desired goal
(Blanchard, 1991)
Key points include:

A system consists of multiple elements.


These elements are interrelated and work in
cooperation.
A system exists for the purpose of achieving specific
objectives.

System Identity

ELEMENTS

INTERRELATIONSHIP

GOAL

PERFORMANCE

ENVIRONMENT

System Definition
Examples of systems:

Traffic systems
Political systems
Economic systems
Manufacturing systems
Service systems

Main focus

manufacturing and service systems that process


materials, information, and people.

System Definition

Manufacturing systems:

Small job shops

Machining cells

Large production
facilities

Assembly lines

Warehousing

Distribution

Supply chain systems

Service systems:

Health care facilities

Call centers

Amusement parks

Public transportation
systems

Restaurant

Bank

etc

System Definition
Both manufacturing and service systems may be
termed processing systems.

They process items through a series of activities.

Processing systems:

Artificial (human-made)

Dynamic (elements interact overtime)


Usually stochastic (they exhibit random behavior)

System Elements
From a simulation perspective, a system consists of
entities, activities, resources, controls.
The elements define the who, what, where, when, and
how of entity processing.

Incoming entities

Outgoing entities

Activities
Resources

Controls

System

System Elements
Entities:

items processed through the system such as


products, customers, and documents.

different entity may have unique characteristics


such as cost, shape, priority, quality, or condition.
We called them Attributes.
divided into:

human or animate (customers, patients, etc.)


inanimate (parts, documents, bins, etc.)
intangible (calls, electronic mail, etc.)

System Elements

[For most manufacturing and service


systems] discrete items.

[For some production systems: continuous


systems] non discrete substance
Example: oil refineries, paper mills

System Elements
Activities

the tasks performed in the system (directly or


indirectly) in the processing of entities.

example:
Servicing a customer
cutting a part on machine

repairing a piece of equipment

System Elements
Activities .

Consume time and often involve the use of


resources

Classified as:
entity processing (check-in, treatment, inspection,
fabrication, etc.)
entity and resource movement (forklift travel, riding in an
elevator, etc.)
resource adjustments, maintenance, and repairs (machine
setups, copy machine repair, etc.)

System Elements
Resources
the

means by which activities are performed

provide

the supporting facilities, equipment,


and personnel for carrying out activities.

can

constrain processing by limiting the rate


at which processing can take place

have

characteristics, e.g. capacity, speed,


cycle time, and reliability.

System Elements

can be categorized as:

Human or animate (operators, doctors, maintenance personnel,


etc.)

Inanimate (equipment, tooling, floor space, etc.)

Intangible (information, electrical power, etc.)

also can be classified as

dedicated or shared

permanent or consumable

mobile or stationary

System Elements
Controls

dictate how, when, and where activities are


performed.

impose order on the system.


[at the highest level] consists of schedules, plan,
and policies.
[at the lowest level] take the forms of written
procedures and machine control logic.
[at all levels] provide the information and decision
logic for how the system should operate.

- [at all levels] provide the information and decision


logic for how the system should operate.
Routing sequences

Production plans
Work schedules
Task prioritization

Control software
Instruction sheets

System Complexity
Elements of a system operate with one another in ways
that often result in complex interactions.
Unaided human intuition is not very good at analyzing
and understanding complex systems.
Inability of the human mind to grasp real-world
complexity is called as the principle of bounded
rationality (Herbert Simon).

System Complexity
This principle states that the capacity of human mind
for formulating and solving complex problem is very
small compared with the size of problem whose
solution is required for objectively rational behavior in
the real world, or even for a reasonable approximation
to such objective rationality (Simon, 1957).

System Complexity
System complexity is a primary function of two
factors:

Interdependencies between elements so that each


element affects other elements.

Variability in element behavior that produces


uncertainty.

System Complexity
The degree of analytical difficulty increases
exponentially as the number of interdependencies and
random variables increase.

System Performance Metrics


Metrics are measures used to assess the performance of
a system.
At the highest level of an organization or business,
metrics measure overall performance in terms of
profits, revenues, cost relative to budget, return on
assets, and so on.

Such metrics are inherently lagging, disguise low-level


performance, and are reported only periodically

System Performance Metrics


From an operational standpoint, it is more beneficial to
track such factors as time, quality, quantity, efficiency,
and utilization.

These operational metrics reflect immediate activity and are


directly controllable

They drive the higher financially related metrics

System Performance Metrics


Key operational metrics that describe the
effectiveness and efficiency of manufacturing
and service systems:

Flow time
Utilization
Value-added time
Waiting time
Flow rate
Inventory or queue levels
Yield
Customer responsiveness
Variance

System Variables
Designing a new system or improving an existing system
requires more than simply identifying the elements and
performance goals of the system.
It requires an understanding of how system elements
affect each other and overall performance objectives.

System Variables
Three types of system variable must be
identified:

Decision variables

Response variables

State variables

System Variables
Decision variables

called as input factors or independent variables

changing the values of a systems independent


variables affects the behavior of the system

Variables controllable or uncontrollable

controllable variable decision variables

System Variables
Response variables

called as performance or output variables

measure performance of the system in response to


particular decision variable settings.

In an experiment, the response variable is the


dependent variable.

The goal in system planning is to find the right


values or settings of decision variables that give the
desired response value.

System Variables
State variables

State variables are the status of the system at any


specific point in time.

Response variables are often summaries of state


variable changes over time.

State variables are dependent variables.

System Optimization

Optimization is finding the right setting for decision


variables that best meets performance objectives.
Optimization seeks the best combination of decision
variable values that either minimizes or maximizes
some objective functions such as costs or profits.
An objective function is a response variable of the
system.

System Optimization
A typical objective in an optimization problem for a
manufacturing or system systems:

minimizing costs

maximizing flow rate

Optimization problems may include constraints that


limits the values of decision variables.

System Optimization
In some instances, there are problems of conflicting
objectives.

System Approach

Kofman and Senge (1995) observe:


The defining characteristic of a system is that it cannot be
understood as a function of its isolated components. First, the
behavior of the system doesnt depend on what each part is
doing but on how each part is interacting with the rest Second,
to understand a system we need to understand how it fits into
the larger system of which it is a part Third, and most
important, what we call the parts need not be taken as primary.
In fact, how we define the parts is fundamentally a matter of
perspective and purpose, not intrinsic in the nature of the real
thing we are looking at.

System Approach
Due to departmentalization and specialization,
decisions in the real world often made without regard
to overall system performance.
Approaching system design with overall objectives in
mind and considering how each element relates to each
other and to the whole is called a systems or holistic
approach to system design.

System Approach
Four-step iterative approach to systems improvement

System Approach
Identifying problems and opportunities

Developing a solution started by understanding the


problem, identifying key variables, and describing
important relationships.

This helps identify possible areas of focus and


leverage points for applying a solution.
Techniques such as cause-and-effect analysis and
Pareto analysis are useful.

System Approach

Performance standards must be set high in order to


look for the greatest improvement opportunities.

Setting high standards pushes people to think


creatively and often results in breakthrough
improvement

System Approach
Developing alternative solutions

Once a problem or opportunity has been identified


and key decision variables isolated, alternative
solution can be explored.

This is where most of the design and engineering


expertise comes into play.

Generating alternative solutions requires creatively


as well as organizational and engineering skills.

Simulation is particularly helpful in that it


encourages thinking in radical new ways.

System Approach
Evaluating the solutions

Alternative solutions should be evaluated based on


their ability to meet the criteria established for the
evaluation.

These criteria include performance goals, cost of


implementation, impact on the socio-technical
infrastructure, and consistency with organizational
strategies.

Many of these criteria are difficult to measure in


absolute terms.

System Approach

After narrowing the list to two or three of the most


promising solutions using common sense and roughcut analysis, more precise evaluation techniques
may need to be used.

This is where simulation and other formal analysis


tools come into play.

System Approach
Selecting and implementing the best solution

Often the final selection of what solution to implement


is not left to the analyst, but rather a management
decision.

The analysts role is to present his/her evaluation in the


clearest way possible so that an informed decision can
be made.

Even after a solution is selected, additional modeling


and analysis are often needed for fine-tuning the
solution.

Implementers should then be careful to make sure that


the system is implemented as designed, documenting
reasons for any modifications.

Ways to Study a System


SYSTEM

Experiment
with the actual
system

Experiment
with a model
of the system

Physical
Model

Mathematical
Model

Analytical
solution

Simulation

System Analysis Techniques


While simulation is perhaps the most versatile and
powerful system analysis tool, other available
techniques also can be useful in planning.
These alternative techniques are usually computational
methods that work well for simple systems with little
interdependency and variability.
For more complex systems, these techniques still can
provide rough estimates but fall short in producing the
insights and accurate answers that simulation provides.

System Analysis Techniques


Simulation improves performance predictability

System predictability

100%

With
simulation

50%

0%

Without
simulation
Call centers
Doctors offices
Machining cells

Low

Banks
Emergency rooms
Production Lines

Medium

System Complexity

Airports
Hospitals
Factories

High

System Analysis Techniques


In addition to simulation, system analysis tools
include:

Hand calculations

Spreadsheet

Operations Research techniques

System Analysis Techniques


Hand calculations

Quick-and-dirty, pencil-and-paper sketches and


calculations can be remarkably helpful in
understanding basic requirements for a system

Some decisions may be so basic that a quick mental


calculation yields the needed results.

Most of these calculations involve simple algebra.

The obvious drawback is the inability to manually


perform complex calculations or to take into
account tens or potentially even hundreds of
complex relationship simultaneously.

System Analysis Techniques


Spreadsheets

What-if experiments can be run on spreadsheet


based on expected values and simple interactions.

Spreadsheet simulation can be very useful for


getting rough performance estimates.

Weaknesses of spreadsheet modeling:


Some potential problems are not readily apparent
All behavior is assumed to be period-driven rather than
event-driven

Operations Research Techniques

Traditional OR techniques utilize mathematical


models to solve problems involving simple to
moderately complex relationships.
These mathematical models include both
deterministic models (e.g. mathematical
programming, routing, or network flows) and
probabilistic models (e.g. queuing and decision
trees).

Operations Research Techniques

These OR techniques provide quick, quantitative


answers without going through the guesswork
process of trial and error.

OR techniques can be divided into: prescriptive and


descriptive

System Analysis Techniques


Prescriptive techniques (Analytical techniques)

an optimum solution to a problem


linear programming, dynamic programming
do not allow random variables
conditions are constant over the period of study

System Analysis Techniques


Descriptive techniques

static analysis techniques such as queuing theory


that provide good estimates for basic problems

limited to only one or two metrics

give only average performance measures rather


than a complete picture of performance over time