Issue 292

Copyright 2011-2016 www.propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.

CONTENTS
p2

FROM THE

EDITOR

Mr. Propwises 2017 Singapore Property

Welcome to the 292th edition of the

Singapore Property Weekly.

Market Outlook
Hope you like it!

p12

Resale Property Transactions

Mr. Propwise

(December 12 December 23)

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 292

Mr. Propwises 2017 Singapore Property Market Outlook

By Mr. Propwise
Its that time of the year where I take a look
back at whats happened over the past twelve
months, then try and say something intelligent
about the future direction of the property
market over the next year. But this year Im
particularly apprehensive, as 2016 was the
year where the majority of forecasters failed
to accurately call the most major events such
as Brexit and the US Presidential Elections.
2016 was a continuation of death by a
thousand cuts. After a 3.7% decline in the
URAs Property Price Index (PPI) in 2015, as
of 2016Q3 weve seen another 2.6% decline
in 2016 so far. This averages out to a less
than 1% decline per quarter over 12
quarters since the peak in 2013Q3.
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 292

Contrast this to the 2008Q3 to 2009Q2 period
where we saw a 24.9% decline over four
quarters. The current period is more
reminiscent of the 2000Q3 to 2004Q1 period
where the market fell by an average of 1.5%
per quarter over 15 quarters. We could be in
for a long, slow and painful ride down, folks.

Honestly, if you read my Property Market

Outlook from last year itll be largely the
same, except with updated figures. This is
because the market has continued on its
gradual downward trend, and there have
been no significant changes in this trend.
Policy standstill
We know the straw that broke the camels
back was the MAS Total Debt Servicing Ratio
(TDSR) framework introduced at the end of
June 2013, which significantly limited the

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ability of buyers to lever up and buy property.

Another large deterrent to would-be property
investors is the punitive Additional Buyers
Stamp Duty (ABSD) imposed on second-time
and higher Singaporean buyers and first-time
PR and foreigner buyers.
Personally, I think the TDSR makes more
sense than the ABSD, which is unnecessarily
harsh and penalizes households who have
genuine upgrading and investing demand.
Lets not forget that Singapore is a nation of
homeowners (if I remember correctly around
90% of resident households own the home
they live in), and property is one of the
primary means by which Singaporeans
accumulate wealth.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 292

the current trifecta of stagnating stock prices
(the Straits Times Index has had a flat return
over the past seven years), property prices
and real incomes means that a whole
generation of middle income wage earners
will find it difficult to accumulate enough
wealth for a comfortable retirement.

How much further will the property market

fall?

Figure 1 Sadly, the STI has not gone

anywhere over the last seven years
(source: Yahoo Finance)

Despite the warning, threatening and finally

pleading of the property developers and
agents, the government is right the
correction of property prices so far has been
moderate, with only a 10.8% correction over
12 quarters.

There are inter-generational equity issues to

sort out if these rules are to be tweaked, but

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 292

indicated the property cooling measures are
here to stay until such a correction has
occurred.

Figure 2 Change in URA PPI since 2000

(Source:
URA,
PropertyMarketInsights.com)

So the million dollar question is what does

the government think a meaningful
correction is? Its important because theyve

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We can get some clues from the previous two

corrections that occurred from 2000 to 2004
and then more recently from 2008 to 2009
during the Global Financial Crisis. During
those downturns, the URA PPI corrected by
19.9% and 24.9% respectively. So if I had to
hazard a guess, Id say wed have another 10
to 15 percent more downside to go before the
government would deem the correction to be
meaningful and start easing some of those
measures.
3 reasons why the market will continue to
be weak in 2017
There are three reasons why the current
market weakness is likely to continue into
2016 and beyond.
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 292

First, the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI)
has continued to be weak in 2016, although
the price movements have been volatile over
the past few quarters. A doubling of HDB
prices since 2005 created a wealth effect
that supported mass market prices as HDB
flat owners could sell their unit at a high price
and upgrade to a private condominium.
Now that HDB prices have flattened out, this
effect may shift into reverse gear, where HDB
owners (except the lucky few at prime areas
such as Duxton) find it difficult to sell their flat
at a good price, thus sapping demand from
the mass segment of the market.

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Figure 3 URA PPI vs HDB RPI (Source:

URA, HDB, PropertyMarketInsights.com)
Second, large upcoming completions are
likely to put pressure on both property
prices and rentals, especially coupled with
slower expected population growth as the
government continues to be tight on the
inflow of foreigners into Singapore.
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 292

Based on URA data, there are close to
44,000 units of private residential properties
to be completed in the next few years.
Looking at the breakdown of supply, 2017 will
see completions of over 13,000 units per
year, followed by close to 10,000 units in
2018. This is still above the yearly average of
fewer than 10,000 units per year between
1996 and 2012.
Figure 4 Upcoming private residential
supply (Source: URA,
PropertyMarketInsights.com)

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 292

Finally, we should keep in mind that the root
cause of the buoyant property prices is the
protracted low interest rate environment after
multiple rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE)
by the US Federal Reserve post the Global
Financial Crisis. This has propped up the
prices of most yield-based assets, including
property.

Figure 5 US Fed
(Tradingeconomics.com)
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Funds

Rate

While the Fed raised its benchmark federal

funds rate in December by a measly
quarter of a percent, market expectations
are for continual hikes into 2017, albeit at
a gentle pace.
How good can property returns be in an
era of rising interest rates?

Figure 6 URA PPI vs 3-Month SIBOR

(Source: URA, MAS,
PropertyMarketInsights.com)
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 292

But even if interest rates do not shoot up right
away, borrowing costs can still rise as banks
charge a higher margin (SIBOR + X%) to give
themselves a buffer against rising interest
rates and greater mortgage defaults.
And when borrowing costs rise, the stress on
heavily leveraged buyers will go up, and the
attractiveness of property itself as an asset
class also decreases as the net cash flow it
provides falls. This will be exacerbated if
rentals are also under pressure at the same
time, which they are.

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Figure 7 Rental growth has been

negative for 12 straight quarters (Source:
URA, PropertyMarketInsights.com)

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 292

Why have rentals been falling? Its just simple
supply and demand supply has been
growing quickly as newly completed
developments flood the market, while
demand has been weak as economic and
wage growth is weak, unemployment creeps
up and the government keeps a tight lid on
immigration. Hence the vacancy rate of nonlanded residential units has now creeped up
to 10%, putting a lot of pressure on rentals.
Figure 8 Vacancy rates have crept up to
10%, since the lows of 5% in 2010, and are
at a level not seen since 2005 (Source:
URA, PropertyMarketInsights.com)

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 292

Ive talked about this before, but I think many
property buyers are still blas to the impact of
rising mortgage rates (whether from rising
interest rates or banks raising their lending
spread) on their ability to meet their monthly
payments.
So what should buyers and investors do?
I do not like making forecasts about when or
how much property prices will fall, because I
believe the exact timing and magnitude of
property price movements is dependent on
too many unknowable events. Instead, I
prefer to base my property investment
decisions (there are different considerations if
you are buying for own stay) on my analysis
of where we are in the cycle and what has
historically been the best action to take at
each point.

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Members of Property Market Insights will

know that we are currently in the twelfth
quarter of the Early Bear stage of the
Property Market Cycle Model. This means
that the best thing to do is to sit tight and wait
for further correction before entering the
market. Patience is a virtue in the current
stage of the market.
The time to buy will come when we enter the
Late Bear and Early Bull stages of the
market. You might have to wait for years, but
why rush to lose money?
Heres wishing everyone a Happy New Year
and a Healthy and Wealthy 2017!
By Mr. Propwise, the founder of Singapore
property blog www.propwise.sg, which aims
to help people make better real estate buying,
selling, renting and investing decisions.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 292

Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Dec 12 Dec 16
Postal
District
1
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
7
8
9
9
9

Project Name
THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY
ALTEZ
ICON
ICON
TIONG BAHRU ESTATE
TWIN REGENCY
RIVER PLACE
CENTRAL GREEN CONDOMINIUM
LANDMARK TOWER
MARINA COLLECTION
THE AZURE
PARC IMPERIAL
THE ROCHESTER
THE STELLAR
THE VISION
REGENT PARK
NORMANTON PARK
FABER CREST
WESTCOVE CONDOMINIUM
SOUTHBANK
KENTISH GREEN
OUE TWIN PEAKS
OUE TWIN PEAKS
THE METZ

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Area
(sqft)
883
861
581
1,249
1,421
1,776
1,033
1,292
1,399
1,873
1,765
398
1,948
1,023
1,302
807
1,270
1,744
1,216
958
1,098
570
1,055
581

Transacted
Price ($)
1,880,000
1,720,000
1,021,000
1,650,000
2,650,000
2,660,000
1,380,000
1,500,000
1,120,000
3,000,000
2,650,000
675,000
2,450,000
1,250,000
1,460,000
840,000
1,000,000
1,350,000
930,000
1,450,000
950,000
1,711,000
2,954,000
1,430,000

Price
Tenure
($ psf)
2,130
99
1,997
99
1,757
99
1,321
99
1,865 FH
1,498 FH
1,335
99
1,161
99
800
99
1,602
99
1,501
99
1,695 FH
1,258
99
1,222 FH
1,121
99
1,041
99
787
102
774
99
765
99
1,514
99
865
99
2,999 103
2,800
99
2,460 FH

Postal
District
9
9
9
9
9
9
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
11
11

Project Name
RICHMOND PARK
GRANGE INFINITE
PATERSON LINC
THE PIER AT ROBERTSON
THE EDGE ON CAIRNHILL
THE BOUTIQ
GRAMERCY PARK
ROBIN RESIDENCES
LEEDON RESIDENCE
THREE BALMORAL
THREE BALMORAL
THREE BALMORAL
D'LEEDON
ASTRID MEADOWS
SPRING GROVE
WOOLLERTON PARK
VALLEY PARK
DUCHESS CREST
RIDGEWOOD
THE SERENADE @ HOLLAND
DUCHESS CREST
HOLLAND MEWS
VIVA
RESIDENCES @ EVELYN

Area
(sqft)
1,259
2,702
818
657
2,131
2,293
2,594
667
1,044
614
614
614
1,012
2,045
1,012
2,971
861
1,367
2,002
1,507
4,295
2,519
1,959
2,250

Transacted
Price ($)
2,850,000
6,050,000
1,750,000
1,180,000
3,250,000
3,150,000
6,401,600
1,568,000
2,436,000
1,300,000
1,300,000
1,300,000
1,650,000
3,200,000
1,400,000
4,000,000
1,130,000
1,700,000
2,480,000
1,824,000
5,000,000
2,580,000
3,560,000
3,650,000

Price
Tenure
($ psf)
2,263 FH
2,239 FH
2,139 FH
1,797 FH
1,525 FH
1,374 FH
2,468 FH
2,350 FH
2,333 FH
2,119 FH
2,119 FH
2,119 FH
1,631
99
1,565 FH
1,384
99
1,346 FH
1,312 999
1,244
99
1,239 999
1,210
99
1,164
99
1,024 FH
1,817 FH
1,622 FH

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 292

Postal
District
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
17
17
18
18
18
19
19
19
19

Project Name
HAIG COURT
IMPERIAL HEIGHTS
THE ATRIA AT MEYER
PARKSHORE
ENVIO
THE MAKENA
VERSAILLES
NEPTUNE COURT
LAGOON VIEW
COSTA DEL SOL
THE DAFFODIL
CASA MERAH
WATERFRONT KEY
THE BAYSHORE
AQUARIUS BY THE PARK
AQUARIUS BY THE PARK
STRATFORD COURT
SUNHAVEN
FERRARIA PARK CONDOMINIUM
CARISSA PARK CONDOMINIUM
DOUBLE BAY RESIDENCES
OASIS @ ELIAS
WATERVIEW
THE SCALA
CASA CAMBIO
BLISS@KOVAN
THE LUXURIE

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Area
(sqft)
1,399
775
1,345
1,636
732
1,668
1,033
1,270
1,647
1,345
689
1,345
1,378
926
1,227
1,227
1,464
1,819
1,023
1,238
1,270
1,302
1,345
850
441
1,249
1,001

Transacted
Price ($)
1,740,000
950,000
1,600,000
1,850,000
810,000
1,700,000
960,000
950,000
1,070,000
1,660,000
765,000
1,460,000
1,430,000
898,000
1,068,000
975,000
1,100,000
1,180,000
866,584
980,000
1,288,000
1,030,000
1,050,000
1,270,000
624,000
1,730,000
1,108,000

Price
Tenure
($ psf)
1,243
FH
1,226
FH
1,189
FH
1,131
FH
1,107
FH
1,019
FH
929
FH
748
99
650
99
1,234
99
1,110
FH
1,085
99
1,038
99
970
99
870
99
795
99
751
99
649
FH
847
FH
792
FH
1,014
99
791
99
780
99
1,493
99
1,414
FH
1,386
FH
1,107
99

Postal
District
11
11
11
11
11
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
15
15
15
15
15

Project Name
1 MOULMEIN RISE
368 THOMSON
GLOUCESTER MANSIONS
SKY@ELEVEN
NOVENA COURT
THE VERVE
THE CENTRIO
RIVERBAY
RIVERSIDE MELODIES
VETRO
WOODSVILLE 28
SENNETT ESTATE
SILVERSCAPE
THE WATERINA
VACANZA @ EAST
ATRIUM RESIDENCES
SUNFLOWER GRANDEUR
CANNE LODGE
EUNOS GREEN
STARVILLE
LE CRESCENDO
SIMS MEADOWS
THE SHORE RESIDENCES
THE SEAFRONT ON MEYER
MEIER SUITES
THE SEAFRONT ON MEYER
SUITES @ GUILLEMARD

Area
(sqft)
1,238
872
1,141
2,713
829
441
1,421
947
1,507
1,033
883
990
409
721
732
1,055
1,033
1,421
1,345
1,216
3,391
2,153
2,906
2,120
1,798
1,066
388

Transacted
Price ($)
1,888,000
1,260,000
1,570,000
3,650,000
955,000
670,000
1,850,000
1,180,000
1,748,000
800,000
1,000,000
720,000
540,000
880,000
835,000
975,000
940,000
1,280,000
1,080,000
950,000
2,350,000
1,130,000
4,700,000
3,428,000
2,720,000
1,600,000
540,000

Price
Tenure
($ psf)
1,525
FH
1,445
FH
1,376
FH
1,346
FH
1,152
FH
1,518
FH
1,302
FH
1,246 999
1,160
FH
774
999
1,133
99
727
FH
1,320
FH
1,220
FH
1,141
FH
924
FH
910
FH
901
FH
803
FH
781
FH
693
FH
525
FH
1,617 103
1,617
FH
1,513
FH
1,501
FH
1,394
FH

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 292

Postal
District
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
21
21
21
21
21
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
23
23
23

Project Name
RIVERSAILS
OASIS GARDEN
SUNGLADE
THE SPRINGBLOOM
A TREASURE TROVE
THE MINTON
THE SUNSHINE
THE QUARTZ
KOVAN CREST
REGENTVILLE
FLORENCE REGENCY
SKY VUE
MAPLEWOODS
THE BEVERLY
SIGNATURE PARK
SHERWOOD CONDOMINIUM
ASTOR GREEN
THE CENTRIS
THE LAKESHORE
PARC OASIS
PARC VISTA
PARC VISTA
PARC OASIS
LAKEHOLMZ
HILLVISTA
HAZEL PARK CONDOMINIUM
FORESQUE RESIDENCES

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Area
(sqft)
1,367
1,238
1,238
1,119
1,206
1,087
1,227
1,313
1,087
1,152
1,647
678
1,787
1,916
1,421
883
1,528
1,119
926
1,378
1,055
1,076
1,227
1,884
915
1,378
1,184

Transacted
Price ($)
1,485,000
1,342,000
1,315,000
1,130,000
1,185,000
1,040,000
1,168,000
1,240,000
960,000
820,000
850,000
1,202,300
2,460,000
2,138,000
1,500,000
850,000
1,300,000
1,212,888
920,000
1,235,000
838,000
850,000
925,000
1,375,000
1,115,000
1,330,000
1,120,000

Price
Tenure
($ psf)
1,086
99
1,084 FH
1,062
99
1,009
99
983
99
957
99
952
FH
944
99
883
FH
712
99
516
103
1,773
99
1,377 FH
1,116 FH
1,056 FH
963
FH
851
99
1,083
99
994
99
896
99
794
99
790
99
754
99
730
99
1,219 FH
965
999
946
99

Postal
District
23
23
23
23
23
25
25
25
26
27
27
28
28

Area
(sqft)
MI CASA
1,292
MI CASA
1,356
YEWTEE RESIDENCES
1,453
PALM GARDENS
958
PALM GARDENS
1,432
CASABLANCA
1,184
WOODGROVE CONDOMINIUM
2,024
WOODGROVE CONDOMINIUM
1,518
THE CALROSE
2,024
SKIES MILTONIA
721
EIGHT COURTYARDS
1,087
NIM GARDENS
1,830
SELETAR SPRINGS CONDOMINIUM 1,335
Project Name

Transacted Price
Tenure
Price ($) ($ psf)
1,213,540 940
99
1,268,000 935
99
1,222,600 841
99
740,000
772
99
960,000
671
99
950,000
802
99
1,310,000 647
99
950,000
626
99
1,680,000 830
FH
785,000 1,088
99
995,000
915
99
1,520,000 831
FH
910,000
682
99

NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale property

transactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority.
Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a purchaser
signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 292

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