DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS-DCA

Decline-curve analysis is the most

commonly used method of determining
reservoir performance and reserves.
Data needed to correlate production
rate, time, and cumulative recovery are
readily available and are generally
accurately recorded.

DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS-DCA

Background
Oil and gas wells usually reach their maximum output
shortly after completion. From that time, other than wells
completed in water-drive reservoirs, they decline in
production, the rapidity of decline depending on the
output of the wells and on other factors governing their
productivity. The production decline curve shows the
amount of oil and gas produced per unit of time for
several consecutive periods; if the conditions affecting the
rate of production are not changed, the curve may be
fairly regular, and, if projected, will furnish useful
knowledge as to the future production of the well. By the
aid of this knowledge the value of a property may be
judged, and proper depletion and depreciation charges
may be made on the books of the operating company..
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DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS-DCA

Production decline curve analysis is important in
determining the value in oil and gas wells in oil and gas
economics. Decline curves are the most common means
of forecasting oil and gas production. Decline curves
have many advantages: they use data which is easy to
obtain, they are easy to plot, they yield results on a time
basis, and they are easy to analyze. Decline curves are
also one of the oldest methods of predicting oil
reserves.
History matching
A more accurate solution for future oil production can
be obtained through history matching, where a
computational model of the reservoir is constructed and
tuned to match production history. Decline curve
analysis, however, is still popular due to its simplicity
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Decline curve analysis is a graphical procedure

used for analyzing declining production rates and
forecasting future performance of oil and gas wells.
A curve fit of past production performance is done
using certain standard curves.
This curve fit is then extrapolated to predict
potential future performance. Decline curve
analysis is a basic tool for estimating recoverable
reserves.
Conventional or basic decline curve analysis can be
used only when the production history is long
enough that a trend can be identified.
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It is implicitly assumed, when using decline curve

analysis, the factors causing the historical decline
continue unchanged during the forecast period.
These factors include both reservoir conditions
and operating conditions.
Some of the reservoir factors that affect the
decline rate include:
Pressure depletion,
Number of producing wells,
Drive mechanism,
Reservoir characteristics,
Saturation changes, and
Relative permeability.
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Operating conditions that influence the

decline rate are:

Separator pressure,
Tubing size,
Choke setting,
Workovers,
Compression,
Operating hours,
Artificial lift.
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As long as these conditions do not change, the

trend in decline can be analyzed and extrapolated
to forecast future well performance.
If these conditions are altered, for example
through a well workover, then the decline rate
determined pre-workover will not be applicable
to the post-workover period.

When analyzing rate decline, two sets of

curves are normally used.
The flow rate is plotted against either time or
cumulative production.
Time is the most convenient independent
variable because extrapolation of rate-time
graphs can be directly used for production
forecasting and economic evaluations.

However, plots of rate vs. cumulative production

have their own advantages:
Not only do they provide a direct estimate of the
ultimate recovery at a specified economic limit.
But will also yield a more rigorous interpretation
in situations where the production is influenced
by intermittent operations.

Good engineering practice demands that,

whenever possible, decline curve analysis should
be reconciled with other indicators of reserves,
such as:
Volumetric calculations,
Material balance, and
Recovery factors.
It should be noted that decline curve analysis
results in an estimate of Recoverable
Hydrocarbons, and
NOT in Hydrocarbons-in-Place.
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Whereas the Hydrocarbons-in-Place are fixed by

nature, the Recoverable hydrocarbons are affected
by the operating conditions.
For example a well producing from a reservoir
containing 1BCF of gas-in-place may recover either
0.7 BCF or 0.9 BCF, depending on whether or not
there is a compressor connected at the wellhead.

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But some assumptions must be made:

1. Reservoir is produced at capacity.

2. Future performance of a reservoir will be
similar to its past performance.
Although the word reservoir has been used,
the technique can be applied to a well or
lease.

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The first assumption implies that the method

cannot be used where the rate of oil production
is constant or nearly constant with time.

This would be true under proration or where

the reservoir had a large gas cap or an active
water drive.
A change in production rate with time is implied
and the method should be used on depletiontype reservoirs producing at capacity.

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The second assumption implies that past

performance is used to predict future
performance.

In other words, the production rate will decline

in the future in a manner similar to that of the
past.
Any workover or cleanup operations may likely
result in higher production rates than predicted
by the analysis.

Thus it must also be assumed that the conditions

of the hole and sand face will remain unchanged.
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The following steps are taken for

exponential decline analysis, and for
predicting
future
flow
rates
and
recoverable reserves:

1. Plot flow rate vs. time on a semi-log plot

(y-axis is logarithmic) and
2. Flow rate vs. Cumulative production on
a Cartesian (arithmetic coordinate)
scale.
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3. Allowing for the fact that the early time

data may not be linear, fit a straight line
through the linear portion of the data, and
determine the decline rate "D" from the slope
(-D/2.303) of the semi-log plot, or directly from
the slope (D) of the rate cumulative production
plot.
4. Extrapolate to q = qE to obtain the
recoverable hydrocarbons.
5. Extrapolate to any specified time or
abandonment rate to obtain a rate forecast
and the cumulative recoverable hydrocarbons
to that point in time.

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Production Decline Equations

Analysis Methods
Decline curve analysis is derived from empirical
observations of the production performance of
oil and gas wells.
Three types of decline have been observed
historically:
1. Exponential,
2. Hyperbolic, and
3. Harmonic.
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Empirical
mprk()l,m-/
adjective
1.1.
based on, concerned with, or verifiable by observation or experience rather
than theory or pure logic.
"they provided considerable empirical evidence to support their argument"

synonyms: observed, seen, factual, actual, real, verifiable, firs

t-hand;experimental, experiential;
practical, pragmatic, hands-on, applied;
Technical l heuristic;
"many of these predictions have received
empirical confirmation"
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Decline curve analysis is based on empirical observations

of production rate decline, and not on theoretical
derivations.
Attempts to explain the observed behaviour, using the
theory of flow in porous media, lead to the fact that these
empirically observed declines are related to "boundary
dominated flow".
When a well is placed on production, there will be
transient flow initially. Eventually, all the reservoir
boundaries will be felt, and it is only after this time, that
decline curve analysis becomes applicable, and the value of
"b" lies in the range of 0 to 1, depending on the reservoir
boundary conditions and the recovery mechanism.
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THE ARPS EQUATIONS

The following discussion applies the

previously developed general equations to
the Arps definitions for exponential,
hyperbolic and the special case harmonic
production decline curves.
Arps defined the following three cases:

(b = 0)
(0<b<1)
(b = 1)

for the exponential case,

for the hyperbolic case, and
for the harmonic case.
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The following table summarizes these rate, time,

cummulative production and decline rate
equations.
The Arps Equations:

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hyperbola
hpbl/
noun
noun: hyperbola; plural noun: hyperbolae; plural noun: hyperbolas
1.
a symmetrical open curve formed by the intersection of a circular cone with a
plane at a smaller angle with its axis than the side of the cone.
MATHEMATICS
the pair of hyperbolas formed by the intersection of a plane with two equal
cones on opposite sides of the same vertex.

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Hyperbola
A special curve. It is shaped like an arch.

The distances of any point on a hyperbola from:

* a fixed point (the focus), and
* a fixed straight line (the directrix)
are always in the same ratio.
It is one of the "Conic Sections"
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