Appendix 1: Multiple Linear Regression For Unemployment, BOP and Policy Rate in Relation With Inflation

Appendix 1:
Multiple linear regression for Unemployment, BOP and policy rate in

relation with inflation
KEY FIGURES FROM THE REGRESSION ANALYSIS
(Output are indicated with an accuracy of 6 decimals- values below decimal limit indicated by
~ 0)
Response variable: Y
R-squared
0,752088
Adjusted R-squared
0,645839
Standard deviation
0,514258
Observations
(Coefficient of determination)
Variance = 0,264461
11
SUMS OF SQUARES AND F-TEST
Degrees of freedom
Sum of squares
F-value
p-value
Regression
5,616043
7,078593
0,015863
Residual
1,85123
10
7,467273
Total (SST)
COEFFICIENTS AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

95%-confidence intervals
Coefficients
Standard deviation
Lower limit
Upper limit
Constant
-4,638074
6,607688
-20,262773
10,986624
X1
0,328569
0,62317
-1,144995
1,802133
X2
-1,117737
0,370754
-1,994432
-0,241043
X3
0,635098
0,386194
-0,278105
1,548302
p-value
p-value
COEFFICIENT TESTS
Coefficients
t-stat
two-sided
one-sided
Constant
-4,638074
-0,701921
0,50539
0,252695
X1- unemployment
0,328569
0,527253
0,614309
0,307155
X2- BOP
-1,117737
-3,014766
0,01953
0,009765
X3 - Policy rate
0,635098
1,644506
0,14407
0,072035
H1
H1
two-sided
one-sided
b 0
b <0
b 0
b >0
b 0
b <0
b 0
b >0
Squared correlation coefficients

Y
Y
X
1
X
2
X
3
X1
X2
X3
0,4209 0,1240 0,4219
1
1
2
3
0,4209
0,0365 0,9201
1
1
7
2
0,1240 0,0365
0,0848
2
7
1
8
0,4219 0,9201 0,0848
3
2
8
1
Correlation
coefficients
Y
Y
X
1
X
2
X
3
X1
X2
X3
0,6495
1
0,6488 0,3522
6
0,6488
1
0,1912 0,9592
0,2913
0,3522 0,1912
1
5
0,6495
0,2913
6
0,9592
5
1
Appendix 2:
Multiple linear regression for BOP and policy rate in relation with
inflation
~ 0)
R-squared
0,742242
Adjusted R-squared
0,677803
Standard deviation
0,490503
Observations
Variance = 0,240594
11
Degrees of freedom
Sum of squares
F-value
p-value
Regression
5,542524
11,518436
0,004414
Residual
1,924749
Total (SST)
10
7,467273

Coefficients
Standard
deviation
Lower limit
Upper limit
Constant
-1,172076
0,638541
-2,644553
0,300402
X1
-1,053935
0,334262
-1,824746
-0,283124
X2
0,439163
0,100257
0,207971
0,670356
p-value
p-value
COEFFICIENT TESTS
Coefficients
t-stat
two-sided
one-sided
Constant
-1,172076
-1,835553
0,10375
0,051875
X2 - BOP
-1,053935
-3,153016
0,013537
0,006768
X3 - Policy rate
0,439163
4,38038
0,002348
0,001174
H1
H1
two-sided
one-sided
b 0
b <0
b 0
b <0
b 0
b >0
Squared correlation
coefficients
Y
Y
X
1
X
2
1
0,1240
2
0,4219
3
X1
0,1240
2
1
0,0848
8
X2
0,4219
3
0,0848
8
1
Correlation
coefficients
Y
Y
X
1
X
2
X1
X2
0,6495
1
-0,3522
6
0,2913
0,3522
1
5
0,6495 0,2913
6
5
1
Appendix 3:
Multiple linear regression for unemployment policy rate in relation with
inflation
~ 0)
R-squared
0,430198
Adjusted R-squared
0,287747
Standard deviation
0,729286
Observations
Variance = 0,531859
11
Degrees of freedom
Sum of squares
F-value
p-value
Regression
3,212403
3,019978
0,105414
Residual
4,25487
10
7,467273
Total (SST)

Coefficients
Standard deviation
Lower limit
Upper limit
3,63553
8,524151
-16,021198
23,292258
X1
-0,284616
0,835342
-2,210919
1,641686
X2
0,18217
0,504534
-0,981288
1,345628
p-value
p-value
Constant
COEFFICIENT TESTS
Constant
X1- unemployment
X3- policy rate
Coefficients
t-stat
two-sided
one-sided
3,63553
0,426498
0,68099
0,340495
-0,284616
-0,340718
0,742091
0,371045
0,18217
0,361066
0,727399
0,3637
H1
H1
two-sided
one-sided
b 0
b >0
b 0
b <0
b 0
b >0
Squared correlation
coefficients
Y
Y
X
1
X
2
1
0,4209
1
0,4219
3
X1
0,4209
1
1
0,9201
2
X2
0,4219
3
0,9201
2
1
Correlation
coefficients
Y
Y
X
1
X
2
1
0,6488
0,6495
6
X1
0,6488
1
0,9592
X2
0,6495
6
0,9592
1
Appendix 4:
Multiple linear regression for unemployment and BOP in relation

with inflation
~ 0)
R-squared
0,656308
Adjusted R-squared
0,570386
Standard deviation
0,566396
Observations
Variance = 0,320805
11
Degrees of freedom
Sum of squares
F-value
p-value
Regression
4,900834
7,638343
0,013953
Residual
2,566439
10
7,467273
Total (SST)

Coefficients
Standard
deviation
Lower limit
Upper limit
Constant
5,911571
1,744299
1,88921
9,933932
X1-unemployment
-0,65755
0,186807
-1,088328
-0,226771
X2-BOP
-0,88055
0,376178
-1,748018
-0,013082
p-value
p-value
COEFFICIENT TESTS
Coefficients
t-stat
two-sided
one-sided
Constant
5,911571
3,389081
0,009513
0,004756
X1-unemployment
-0,65755
-3,519936
0,007847
0,003923
X2-BOP
-0,88055
-2,340779
0,047358
0,023679
H1
H1
two-sided
one-sided
b 0
b >0
b 0
b <0
b 0
b <0
Squared correlation
coefficients
Y
Y
X
1
X
2
1
0,4209
1
0,1240
2
X1
0,4209
1
1
0,0365
7
X2
0,1240
2
0,0365
7
1
Correlation
coefficients
Y
Y
X
1
X
2
X1
X2
1
-0,6488 0,3522
0,6488
1
0,1912
0,3522 -0,1912
1
Appendix 5: Linear regression for unemployment (Phillips curve original

model) in relation with inflation
original Phillips curve

3
2.5
inflation
2
1.5
Srie1
1
0.5
0
7
10
11
unemployment
observed x
observed y
estimated y
residual
2006
8,8
1,6
1,557165
0,042835
2007
1,5
2,016311
-0,516311
2008
7,4
2,8
2,360671
0,439329
2009
9,1
0,1
1,384985
-1,284985
2010
9,3
1,5
1,270198
0,229802
2011
9,2
2,1
1,327591
0,772409
2012
9,8
0,983232
1,016768
2013
10,3
0,9
0,696265
0,203735
2014
10,3
0,5
0,696265
-0,196265
2015
10,4
0,6
0,638872
-0,038872
2016
10
0,2
0,868445
-0,668445
Figures for linear regression

~ 0)
R-squared
0,420912
Adjusted R-squared
0,356569
Standard deviation
0,693158
Observations
11
Variance = 0,480467
Degrees of freedom
Sum of squares
F-value
p-value
Regression
3,143065
6,541682
0,030805
Residual
4,324207
10
7,467273
Total (SST)

Coefficients
Standard deviation Lower limit
Upper limit
Constant
6,607774
2,103418
1,849513
11,366036
X1
-0,573933
0,224397
-1,081553
-0,066312
p-value
p-value
COEFFICIENT TESTS
Coefficients
t-stat
two-sided
one-sided
Constant
6,607774
3,141447
0,0119
0,00595
X1
-0,573933
-2,557671
0,030805
0,015402
H1
H1
two-sided
one-sided
b 0
b >0
b 0
b <0
Squared correlation
coefficients
Y
X1
X1
0,42091
0,42091
Correlation coefficients
Y
X1
X1
-0,6488
-0,6488
Appendix 5: Linear regression for unemployment (Phillips curve new

model) in relation with inflation
New model Phillips curve

2
1.5
change in inflation
1
0.5
0
-0.5
observed y
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
7
7.5
8.5
9.5 10 10.5 11
unemployment
Unemployment
inflation
estimated y
residual
2006
8,8
0,068445
-0,068445
2007
-0,1
0,365396
-0,465396
2008
7,4
1,3
0,58811
0,71189
2009
9,1
-2,7
-0,042912
-2,657088
2010
9,3
1,4
-0,117149
1,517149
2011
9,2
0,6
-0,08003
0,68003
2012
9,8
-0,1
-0,302744
0,202744
2013
10,3
-1,1
-0,488338
-0,611662
2014
10,3
-0,4
-0,488338
0,088338
2015
10,4
0,1
-0,525457
0,625457
2016
10
-0,4
-0,376982
-0,023018

~ 0)
R-squared
0,103667
Adjusted R-squared
0,004074
Standard deviation
1,123839
Observations
Variance = 1,263015
11
Degrees of freedom
Sum of squares
F-value
p-value
Regression
1,314684
1,040909
0,334251
Residual
11,367134
10
12,681818
Total (SST)

Coefficients
Upper limit
Constant
3,334909
3,410341
-4,379818
11,049635
X1
-0,371189
0,363822
-1,194211
0,451833
p-value
p-value
COEFFICIENT TESTS
Coefficients
t-stat
two-sided
one-sided
Constant
3,334909
0,977881
0,353685
0,176842
unemployment
-0,371189
-1,02025
0,334251
0,167125
H1
H1
two-sided
one-sided
b 0
b >0
b 0
b <0
Squared correlation
coefficients
Y
X1
X1
0,10367
0,10367
Y
X1
X1
-0,322
-0,322
Appendix 6: Linear regression for policy rate with inflation
Plot of x- and y-values with regression line

4
3.5
3
inflation
2.5
2
1.5
Srie1
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
0
interest rate
observed x
observed y
estimated y
residual
2,51
1,8
1,603582
0,196418
2,81
1,9
1,719352
0,180648
3,11
1,7
1,835122
-0,135122
3,48
1,3
1,977905
-0,677905
3,74
1,2
2,078239
-0,878239
3,98
1,2
2,170855
-0,970855
4,33
1,3
2,30592
-1,00592
4,63
2,3
2,42169
-0,12169
4,4
2,9
2,332933
0,567067
4,67
3,3
2,437126
0,862874
4,81
3,2
2,491152
0,708848
3,86
1,8
2,124547
-0,324547
1,98
0,6
1,399055
-0,799055
1,11
-0,2
1,063322
-1,263322
-0,4
1,020873
-1,420873
0,4
1,020873
-0,620873
1,3
1,020873
0,279127
1,02
1,6
1,028591
0,571409
1,5
1,020873
0,479127
1,6
1,020873
0,579127
1,8
1,020873
0,779127
1,22
2,1
1,105771
0,994229
1,47
2,1
1,202246
0,897754
1,31
2,4
1,140502
1,259498
2,3
1,020873
1,279127
0,78
0,935975
1,064025
0,75
0,924398
1,075602
0,75
1,5
0,924398
0,575602
0,6
1,1
0,866513
0,233487
0,5
0,8
0,827923
-0,027923
0,37
0,9
0,777756
0,122244
0,25
0,7
0,731448
-0,031448
0,23
0,7
0,72373
-0,02373
0,14
0,6
0,688999
-0,088999
0,05
0,4
0,654268
-0,254268
0,05
0,3
0,654268
-0,354268
0,05
-0,2
0,654268
-0,854268
0,05
0,2
0,654268
-0,454268
0,05
0,1
0,654268
-0,554268
0,05
0,1
0,654268
-0,554268
0,05
0,654268
-0,654268
0,634973
-0,634973
Figures for linear regressions

~ 0)
R-squared
0,414774
Adjusted R-squared
0,400143
Standard deviation
0,732594
Observations
Variance = 0,536694
42
Degrees of freedom
Sum of squares
F-value
p-value
15,215098
28,349672
0,000004
Residual
40
21,467759
Total (SST)
41
36,682857
Regression

Coefficients
Constant
Upper limit
0,634973
0,160664
0,310259
0,959687
0,3859
0,072477
0,239418
0,532382
p-value
p-value
X3
COEFFICIENT TESTS
Coefficients
t-stat
two-sided
one-sided
0,634973
3,952179
0,000307
0,000154
0,3859
5,324441
0,000004
0,000002
Constant
X3-Policy rate
H1
H1
two-sided
one-sided
b0 0
b0 > 0
b1 0
b1 > 0
Squared correlation
coefficients
Y
X1
X1
0,41477
0,41477
Y
X1
X1
0,64403
0,64403
Appendix 7: Linear regression for BOP with inflation
Plot of x- and y-values with regression line

3
2.5
2
1.5
observed y
1
0.5
0
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
observed x
observed y
estimated y
residual
-0,84
1,6
0,729855
0,870145
-1,29
1,5
1,012161
0,487839
-1,75
2,8
1,300741
1,499259
-1,42
0,1
1,093716
-0,993716
-1,88
1,5
1,382296
0,117704
-2,56
2,1
1,808892
0,291108
-2,16
1,557953
0,442047
-1,88
0,9
1,382296
-0,482296
-1,99
0,5
1,451304
-0,951304
-1,38
0,6
1,068623
-0,468623
-1,29
0,2
1,012161
-0,812161

~ 0)
R-squared
0,124018
Adjusted R-squared
0,026687
Standard deviation
0,852525
Variance = 0,726799
Observations
11
Degrees of freedom
Sum of squares
F-value
p-value
Regression
0,926078
1,274187
0,288172
Residual
6,541194
10
7,467273
Total (SST)

Coefficients
Upper limit
Constant
0,202884
0,966474
-1,983432
2,389199
X2
-0,627347
0,555765
-1,884575
0,629881
p-value
p-value
COEFFICIENT TESTS
Coefficients
t-stat
two-sided
one-sided
Constant
0,202884
0,209922
0,838404
0,419202
X2-BOP
-0,627347
-1,128799
0,288172
0,144086
H1
H1
two-sided
one-sided
b0 0
b0 > 0
b1 0
b1 < 0
Squared correlation
coefficients
Y
X1
X1
0,12402
0,12402
Y
X1
X1
-0,3522
-0,3522
Appendix 8
Currency rate
EUR/USD
Source: http://www.xe.com/en/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=10Y
EUR/GBP
Source : http://www.xe.com/en/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=GBP&view=10Y
EUR/CNY(China)
Source : http://www.xe.com/en/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=CNY&view=10Y

Appendix 1: Multiple Linear Regression For Unemployment, BOP and Policy Rate in Relation With Inflation

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Appendix 1: Multiple Linear Regression For Unemployment, BOP and Policy Rate in Relation With Inflation

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Appendix 1:

Multiple linear regression for Unemployment, BOP and policy rate in

SUMS OF SQUARES AND F-TEST

COEFFICIENTS AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

Squared correlation coefficients

SUMS OF SQUARES AND F-TEST

COEFFICIENTS AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

SUMS OF SQUARES AND F-TEST

COEFFICIENTS AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

Multiple linear regression for unemployment and BOP in relation

SUMS OF SQUARES AND F-TEST

COEFFICIENTS AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

Appendix 5: Linear regression for unemployment (Phillips curve original

original Phillips curve

Figures for linear regression

SUMS OF SQUARES AND F-TEST

COEFFICIENTS AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

Standard deviation Lower limit

Appendix 5: Linear regression for unemployment (Phillips curve new

New model Phillips curve

Figures for linear regression

SUMS OF SQUARES AND F-TEST

COEFFICIENTS AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

Standard deviation Lower limit

Appendix 6: Linear regression for policy rate with inflation

Plot of x- and y-values with regression line

Figures for linear regressions

SUMS OF SQUARES AND F-TEST

COEFFICIENTS AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

Standard deviation Lower limit

Appendix 7: Linear regression for BOP with inflation

Plot of x- and y-values with regression line

Figures for linear regression

SUMS OF SQUARES AND F-TEST

COEFFICIENTS AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

Standard deviation Lower limit

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