Advantage structure:

- Iraq Instability
o Withdraw now only to retain training forces – but we wont stick to this
o Al Qaeda and Iran will encourage breaking the deadline
o US presence amplifies sectarian violence
o The reason for cooperation and coalition is assisted by US withdrawal
o Now is an important time because government consolidation will create stability
but failure risks all efforts toward coalition government
o  Iraqi civil war
o  Regional wars
o Escalates to nuclear war
o Negative responses:
 Iraq has been unstable for so long that it wont be solved
 They already had 1 election, did that solve it?
 If it didn’t spill over from the beginning part of the wars or the bad
parts of the war why would it spillover now?
 No solvency/instability inevitable – no evidence for withdrawal improving
governance
 Israel invading Lebanon empirically denies Middle East conflict escalates
globally
 Alt cause for governmental breakup, oil review?
 Plenty of violence not directed at US troops
 Power sharing fail
 There is no way that all three groups into a position of presidency
- Iraqi Relations
o Sticking to the deadline is key to Iraqi relations
o Relations are key to solve the root of terrorism
o Terrorism  Extinction
o Negative responses:
 Long timeframe for terrorism cooperation
 Advantage depends on stability – apply the negative from the other
advantage
 Self-interest guarantees cooperation
 Resiliency – cite other sources of cooperation
 Iraq isn’t the root cause of terrorism
 Historical resentment
 Our presence in Afghanistan, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia 
Terrorists
 The impact isn’t saying extinction it says civilization will end
 Also terrorists can’t get the weapons
 History disproves the threat- terrorists have not used any of the
weapons, ie. 9-11. Motives v. Means.
o No reason to move to nuclear means
 No evidence that terrorists plan to use the forms of weaponry
- Democracy
o Iraq democratizing now
o US presence undermines credibility of the Iraqi government
o  Collapse of Iraqi democracy
o Iraq K2 regional democracy
o Negative Arguments
 Major authoritarian states will cause conflict
 Those states are unlikely to be changed by iraq
 Middle east examples that democracy is not key to prevent conflict
 Other countries don’t model, the US entering and forming a democracy
doesn’t seem preferable
 Influence of Iraq wouldn’t be modeled on other states
 Different demographics
 Different history
 Different political structure
 Democratic peace theory empirically denied
 Israel Lebanon
 India-Pakistan
o Kargil Conflict
 Both the other advantages are perquisites to democracy