Cuadro N7: PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)

ESTACION HUAMACHUCO
Distribution Analysys: Pearson Type III
First Moment (mean) = 36.5700
Second Moment = 6.445e01
Skew = 3.979e-01

Point
Number

Weibull
Probability
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Exceedence
Probability
0.998

Actual
Value

Predicted
Value

Standard
Deviation

0.0323

24.2

23.7

2.15

0.0645

24.8

25.5

1.72

0.0968

25.4

26.8

1.55

0.1290

27.0

27.8

1.47

0.1613

28.0

28.7

1.45

0.1935

30.5

29.5

1.44

0.2258

30.6

30.3

1.45

0.2581

30.8

31.0

1.47

0.2903

31.2

31.7

1.49

0.3226

31.5

32.3

1.51

0.3548

32.1

33.0

1.53

0.3871

33.5

33.6

1.55

0.4194

34.0

34.2

1.57

0.4516

34.7

34.9

1.59

0.4839

35.1

35.5

1.61

0.5161

35.7

36.1

1.63

0.5484

36.2

36.8

1.65

0.5806

36.5

37.5

1.67

0.6129

37.5

38.1

1.69

0.6452

38.2

38.9

1.71

0.6774

38.9

39.6

1.74

0.7097

39.2

40.4

1.78

0.7419

43.1

41.3

1.83

0.7742

43.3

42.2

1.89

0.8065

46.0

43.2

1.98

0.8387

47.3

44.4

2.11

0.8710

49.1

45.7

2.29

0.9032

49.4

47.4

2.56

0.9355

51.1

49.6

3.01

0.9677

52.2

53.1

3.92

Predictions
Return
Calculated
Period
Value
500

65.3

Standard
Deviation
8.47

0.993

143

60.1

6.30

0.990

100

58.5

5.71

0.986

71

57.0

5.18

0.971

35

53.6

4.08

0.967

30

53.0

3.89

0.667

39.4

1.73

0.500

35.8

1.62

Fuente: Resultados obtenidos en base al Software SMADA ver. 6.3

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de
0.9951914482
Coeficiente d
0.9904060186
R^2 ajustado
0.9899140195
Error tpico
0.0220524345
Observacione
42
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertadSuma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
2 1.95790712 0.97895356 2013.02426 4.456E-040
Residuos
39 0.01896608 0.00048631
Total
41 1.97687321

Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2

Coeficientes
1.8335349556
0.1984721691
-0.5272275395

Error tpico
0.01529323
0.00570688
0.00993433

Estadstico t
119.891903
34.7777213
-53.0712599

Probabilidad
1.082E-051
5.707E-031
5.575E-038

Inferior 95% Superior 95%

1.80260147 1.86446844
0.18692892 0.21001542
-0.54732162 -0.50713346

Inferior 95.0%
Superior 95.0%
1.80260147 1.86446844
0.18692892 0.21001542
-0.54732162 -0.50713346

T
aos

CuadroN13: Lluvias mximas (mm).- Estacin Tingo Maria

P.Max
Duracin en minutos
24 horas
5
10
15
20
30

143
5.9
8.9
10.9
206.1
100
5.7
8.5
10.3
199.8
71
5.4
8.0
9.8
193.6
35
4.8
7.2
8.8
180.3
30
4.7
7.0
8.6
177.3
10
3.8
5.7
7.0
42.8
2
2.5
3.8
4.6
26.5
Fuente: Elaboracin del autor aplicando el Modelo de Bell

T
aos

12.4
11.8
11.2
10.0
9.8
8.0
5.3

60
14.7
14.0
13.4
12.0
11.6
9.5
6.3

Cuadro N14: Intensidades mximas (mm/hora).- Estacin Tingo Maria

P.Max
Duracin en minutos
24 horas
5
10
15
20
30

143
206.1
100
199.8
71
193.6
35
180.3
30
177.3
10
125.5
2
112.9
Fuente: Elaboracin del autor

Constante
Err. estndar de est.Y
R cuadrada

71.2
67.8
64.5
57.8
56.3
45.8
30.3

53.3
50.8
48.3
43.2
42.1
34.2
22.7

43.5
41.4
39.4
35.2
34.3
27.9
18.5

37.2
35.4
33.7
30.1
29.4
23.9
15.8

K= 68.16
m= 0.198
n= 0.527

0.0220524
0.989914

42

Grado de libertad
39
Donde:
Coeficiente(s) X
0.1984722 -0.5272275
Error estndar de coef.
0.0057069 0.0099343
Fuente: Elaboracin del autor

I= 91085 T0.198
t.0.527
T= aos
t= minutos

60

29.5
28.1
26.7
23.9
23.3
18.9
12.6

Cuadro N15: Resultado del Anlisis de Regresin:

Log K= 1.8335
1.833535

Nm. de observaciones

19.4
18.4
17.5
15.7
15.3
12.4
8.2

19.4
18.4
17.5
15.7
15.3
12.4
8.2

Y
X1
X2
log
I
LogT
1.8524799936
2.15533604 Logt0.69897
1.8524799936
1.726727209
1.638489257
1.5705429399
1.469822016
1.2878017299
1.8312296939
1.7058637123
1.6170003411
1.549003262
1.4487063199
1.264817823
1.8095597146

2.15533604
2.15533604
2.15533604
2.15533604
2.15533604
2.15533604
2
2
2
2
2
2
1.85125835

0.69897
1
1.17609126
1.30103
1.47712125
1.77815125
0.69897
1
1.17609126
1.30103
1.47712125
1.77815125
0.69897

1.6839471308 1.85125835

1.5954962218
1.5276299009
1.4265112614
1.2430380487
1.7619278384
1.635483747
1.546542663
1.478566496
1.378397901
1.195899652
1.7505083949
1.624282096
1.535294120
1.468347330

1.85125835
1.85125835
1.85125835
1.85125835
1.54406804
1.54406804
1.54406804
1.54406804
1.54406804
1.54406804
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125
1.47712125

1.17609126
1.30103
1.47712125
1.77815125
0.69897
1
1.17609126
1.30103
1.47712125
1.77815125
0.69897
1
1.17609126
1.30103

1.367355921 1.47712125 1.47712125

1.184691431 1.47712125 1.77815125
1.660865478
1
0.69897
1.534026106
1
1
1.445604203
1 1.17609126
1.378397901
1
1.30103
1.276461804
1 1.47712125
1.0934216852
1 1.77815125
1.4814426285
0.30103
0.69897
1.3560258572
0.30103
1
1.2671717284
0.30103 1.17609126
1.198657087
0.30103
1.30103
1.1003705451
0.30103 1.47712125
0.9138138524
0.30103 1.77815125

Cuadro N 16: Intensidades mximas.- Tingo Maria

I=
K Tm
tn
K=
175.06
m=
0.19808268
n=
0.52696431
Duracin (t) Perodo de Retorno (T) en aos
(minutos)
30
50
100
5
147.04
162.7
186.65
11
97.05
107.39
123.19
19
72.76
80.51
92.36
30
57.2
63.29
72.6
40
49.15
54.39
62.39
50
43.7
48.35
55.47
60
39.7
43.92
50.39
70
36.6
40.5
46.46
80
34.11
37.75
43.3
90
32.06
35.47
40.69
100
30.33
33.56
38.5
110
28.84
31.91
36.61
120
27.55
30.48
34.97