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TakingSeatsonaPlane
ThisisaneatlittleproblemthatIwasdiscussingtodaywithmylabgroupoutatlunch.Notparticularlydifficultbutinterestingimplications
nonetheless
Imaginetherearea100peopleinlinetoboardaplanethatseats100.Thefirstpersoninlinerealizeshelosthisboardingpasssowhenhe
boardshedecidestotakearandomseatinstead.Everypersonthatboardstheplaneafterhimwilleithertaketheir"proper"seat,orifthatseat
istaken,arandomseatinstead.
Question:Whatistheprobabilitythatthelastpersonthatboardswillendupinhis/herproperseat.
Moreover,andthisisthepartI'mstillponderingabout.Canyouthinkofaphysicalsystemthatwouldfollowthiscombinatorialstatistics?
Maybeaspinwavefunctioninacrystaletc...
(probability ) (combinatorics ) (puzzle)
editedOct1'15at8:19

askedSep27'10at20:15

Community

crasic

1,678

15

26

Tomakeananalogybetweenthispuzzleandaphysicalsystem,youwouldneedtothinkofsomesystem

whereparticlesorobjectshave"assignedlocations"(separatefromtheiractuallocation).Thisisnot
typicallythecaseinphysics,whichusuallyconcentratesonlyonhowthingsactuallyare,andthedynamics
ofhowthingschange.MattFeb28'15at11:45
Thankyouforusing"his/her"atleastonceintheproblemstatement.Theproseonthispageisprettymale

biasedotherwise.GregMartinMay26'16at18:02

10Answers

Thisisaclassicpuzzle!
Theansweristhattheprobabilitythatthelastpersonendsinupinhisproperseatisexactly

1
2

Thereasoninggoesasfollows:
Firstobservethatthefateofthelastpersonisdeterminedthemomenteitherthefirstorthe
lastseatisselected!Thisisbecausethelastpersonwilleithergetthefirstseatorthelastseat.
Anyotherseatwillnecessarilybetakenbythetimethelastguygetsto'choose'.
Sinceateachchoicestep,thefirstorlastisequallyprobabletobetaken,thelastpersonwillget
eitherthefirstorlastwithequalprobability: .
1
2

Sorry,noclueaboutaphysicalsystem.
answeredSep27'10at20:30

Aryabhata
63k

139

228

2 Thisisagoodintuitivewaytothinkaboutit.Aformalproofistooheavyforaoveracupofcoffee
discussion,thisisjustright.I'llgiveyouthecreditsincenobodyseemstowanttotakeashotatthe
physicalapplication crasic Sep29'10at8:23

Hereisarephrasingwhichsimplifiestheintuitionofthisnicepuzzle.
Supposewheneversomeonefindstheirseattaken,theypolitelyevictthesquatterandtaketheir
seat.Inthiscase,thefirstpassengerkeepsgettingevicted(andchoosinganewrandomseat)
until,bythetimeeveryoneelsehasboarded,hehasbeenforcedbyaprocessofeliminationinto
hiscorrectseat.
Thisprocessisthesameastheoriginalprocessexceptfortheidentitiesofthepeopleinthe
seats,sotheprobabilityofthelastboarderfindingtheirseatoccupiedisthesame.
Whenthelastboarderboards,thefirstboarderiseitherinhisownseatorinthelastboarder's
seat,whichhavebothlookedexactlythesame(i.e.empty)tothefirstboarderuptonow,so
thereisnowaythepoorfirstboardercouldbemorelikelytochooseonethantheother.
answeredApr17'11at19:09

Matt

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1 ThisansweralsogivesanintuitiveexplanationfortheniceresultinByronSchmuland'sanswer:Whenthek
thpassengerreachestheplane,therearen (k 1) emptyseats.Ifthefirstpassengerstandsup,he
willseethatheisinanarbitraryoneofn k + 2 seats,allofwhichhavelookedthesametohimsofar.
Sothereisa
'14at2:22

1
nk+2

chancethat,whenseated,heisoccupyingthekthpassenger'sseat.MattAug19

Let'sfindthechancethatanycustomerendsupinthewrongseat.
For2 k n,customerkwillgetbumpedwhenhefindshisseatoccupiedbysomeonewith
asmallernumber,whowasalsobumpedbysomeonewithasmallernumber,andsoonbackto
customer1.
Thisprocesscanbesummarizedbythediagram
1

j1

j2

jm

k.

Herej < j < < j isany(possiblyempty)increasingsequenceofintegersstrictly

between1andk.Theprobabilityofthissequenceofeventsis
1

(n + 1) j1

(n + 1) j2

(n + 1) jm

Thus,theprobabilitythatcustomerkgetsbumpedis
m

1
p(k) =
n

=1

wherethesumisoverallsetsofjvalues1
p(k) =

(n + 1) j

.Thatis,

< j1 < j2 < < jm < k

jJ

(n + 1) j

2,,k1

1
n

1
=

k1

)
(n + 1) j

j=2

(n + 2) j

k1

(1 +

j=2

(n + 1) j

1
.
n + 2 k

Inthecasek = n ,wegetp(n) = 1/2asintheothersolutions.Maybethereisanintuitive

explanationofthegeneralformulaIcouldn'tthinkofone.

Addedreference: FindingyourseatversustossingacoinbyYaredNigussie,American
MathematicalMonthly121,JuneJuly2014,545546.
editedJun10'14at16:09

answeredAug7'11at12:30

ByronSchmuland
30.2k

mayiask2questions,1:howcouldIgetJ {2,,k1}

1
jJ

(n+1)j

k1
j=2

(1 +

1
(n+1)j

61

136

?2.the

bumpingmaynotstartfromcustomer1,itcouldstartfromanyone.e.g.thediagramcouldbe
5 j1 j2 jm kifthefirstpersonintheline(losthisticket)seatsatseat#5.
right?athos Oct1'13at1:18
1 1.iI (1 + xi )

J I

jJ

xj

ByronSchmulandOct1'13at12:13

1 2.No,anybumpingcanbetracedbacktopassenger1.ByronSchmulandOct1'13at12:14

thankyouforyourexplanation.forpoint1,afterdrawingitoutifinallyunderstandit.butforpoint2,could
youpleaseelaborateabitmore?scenarioA:thefirstpersoninthelinebumpedintoseat#1,customer#1
thenbumpedintoseat#5,thisis1 j1 = 5 j2 jm kScenarioB:thefirst
personinthelinebumpedintoseat#5,customer#5thenbumpedon,thisis
j1 = 5 j2 jm k theseare2differentscenariosright? athos Oct1'13at15:05

1 +1forthereference!here'salinktoitMattAug19'14at2:09

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Thisanalysisiscorrect,butnotcompleteenoughtoconvinceme.Forexample,whyisthefate
ofthelastpersonsettledassoonasthefirstperson'sseatchosen?Whywillanyotherseatbut
thefirstperson'sorthelastperson'sbetakenbythetimethelastpersonboards?
Ihadtofillintheholesformyselfthisway...
Thelastperson'sfateisdecidedassoonasanybodychoosesthefirstperson'sseat(nobodyis
nowinawrongseat,soeverybodyelsegetstheirassignedseat,includingthelastperson)orthe
lastperson'sseat(thelastpersonnowwon'tgettheircorrectseat).Anyotherchoiceatany
stagedoesn'tchangetheprobabilitiesatall.
Rephrasing...ateachstage,eitherthemattergetssettledandthereisa50/50chanceitgets
settledeachwayforthelastperson'sseat,ortheagonyisjustpostponed.Themattercanthus
besettledatanystage,andtheprobabilitiesatthatstagearetheonlyonesthatmatterand
theyare50/50nomatterwhatstage.Thus,theoverallprobabilityis50/50.
answeredOct1'10at17:03

DavidLewis
1,427

19

Idon'treallyhavetheintuitionforthis,butIknowtheformalproof.Thisisequivalentto
showingthattheprobabilitythatinapermutationof[n]chosenuniformlyatrandom,two
elementschosenuniformlyatrandomareinthesamecycleis1/2.Bysymmetry,it'senoughto
showthattheprobabilitythat1and2areinthesamecycleis1/2.
Therearemanywaystoshowthisfact.Forexample:theprobabilitythat1isinacycleof
lengthkis1/n,for1 k n.Thisistruebecausethenumberofpossiblekcyclescontaining
1is (
)(k 1)! = (n 1)!/(n k)!,andthenumberofwaystocompleteapermutation
n1
k1

onceakcycleischosenis(n k)! .Sothereare(n 1)! permutationsof[n]inwhich1isin

akcycle.Nowtheprobabilitythat2isinthesamecycleas1,giventhat1isinakcycle,is
(k 1)/(n 1).Sotheprobabilitythat 2isinthesamecycleas 1is
n

k 1 1

k=1

1
=

n 1 n

n(n 1)

n(n 1)

(k 1) =
n(n 1)

k=1

= 1/2.

Alternatively,theChineserestaurantprocesswith = 0, = 1 generatesauniformrandom
permutationof[n]atthenthstep2ispairedwith1atthesecondstepwithprobability1/2.
ThisisabitmoreelegantbutrequiressomeunderstandingoftheCRP.
answeredNov19'10at19:40

MichaelLugo
13k

27

59

ItriedtosynthesizetheproofformyselffromstuffI'vereadtogetridofallcalculations
(somehowIfoundtheargumentthat"eachperson'schoiceis5050betweengoodandbad
oncewethrowawaytheirrelevantstuff"convincingbuthardtoformalize).
Claim1:whenthelastpassengerboards,theremainingemptyseatwilleitherbehisownorthe
firstpassenger's.
Proof:Iftheremainingemptyseatbelongstopassengern
havesatthere.

1, 100

,thenpassengernshould

Claim2:ifatanytimeapassengerotherthanthefinalpassengerfindsherseatoccupied,then
boththeseatassignedtothefirstandtothefinalpassengerwillbefree.
Proof:Ifnot,thenthereisanonzeroprobabilitythatafterthispassengermakesadecision,
boththefirstandlastseatswillbeoccupied.ThiscontradictsClaim1.
Claim3:Thereisabijectionbetweenthesetofadmissibleseatingsinwhichthefinalpassenger
getshisseatandthesetwherehedoesn't.
Proof:SupposeforanadmissibleseatingS thatpassengernisthefirsttochooseoneof{first
passenger'sseat,lastpassenger'sseat}.Byclaim2,thereisauniqueadmissibleseatingT
whichagreeswithS exceptthatpassengernandthefinalpassengermaketheopposite
decision(T matchesS untilpassengernsits,thenbyClaim2,T mustcontinuetomatchS
untilthefinalpassenger).
answeredDec4'13at9:42

hunter
10.8k

16

32

Thisisthebestproofsofar!tukoOct31'16at13:06

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LetP(n)denotetheprobabilityofthelastpassengergettinghisseatifwebeginwithn
passengers.
Considerthesimplecaseforjust2seats:
P(2)=1/2{firstboarderpickshisownseatwith1/2probability}
Fornseats:(i)With1/nprobability,thepassengerpickstheseatofthefirstpassenger,then'th
seatfromtheend(inwhichcasethelastpassengerwoulddefinitelygethisseat).(ii)With1/n
probability,thecurrentpassengerpickstheseatofthelastpassenger,firstseatfromtheend
(andnow,thelastpassengercandefinitelynotgethisownseat).(iii)Otherwise,thepassenger
pickssomeotherseat(say#ifromtheend)amongthen2remainingseats(withprobability
1/n),continuingthedilemma.Theproblemnowreducestotheinitialproblemwithiseats.
Therefore,P(n)=(1/n*(1))+(1/n*(0))+Sum{(1/n)*P(i),2<i<n}
=1/n+1/n{SumP(i),2<i<n}(1)

Similarly,((n1)/n)P(n1)=1/n+1/nSum{P(i),2<i<n1}
=[1/n+1/nSum{P(i),2<i<n}]1/nP(n1)
=>(n1)/nP(n1)=P(n)1/nP(n1)
=>P(n)=P(n1)
=>P(m)=P(n1),forallintegersm>n1

SinceP(2)=1/2,ThereforeP(m)=1/2forallintegersm>2
answeredAug4'11at17:17

Shashank
51

Myanswerowesmuchtowhatwentbefore,butitworksforme.Thefirstpersoninthequeue(
assumehedoesnotsitinhisownseatbyrandomchance)displacesonepersonstillinthe
queuebysittingintheirseat.Passengerscontinuetoboardintheirownseatsuntilthe
displacedpersoncomestositdown.Hisownseatistakensoheinturndisplacessomeoneelse
whoisinthequeue.Thereisalwaysonedisplacedpersoninthequeueasthiscyclecontinues
Fromherethereareonly2possibleoutcomes,a)adisplacedpersonrandomlychosesthefirst
mansseatatwhichpointthecycleofdisplacementendsandtheboardingcanthencontinue
totheendpersonwitheveryoneelseincludingthelastmangettingtheirownseatorb)The
lastmansseatisselectedbyadisplacedpersonthenthereisnomoredisplacementuntilthe
lastmantriestositdownandwillfindhisseatfull
Whicheverofa)orb)happensfirstwilldeterminewhetherthelastmansseatisavailable
whenhecomestoboard.a)orb)are2eventsdeterminedbyrandomchancethereforeeach
has50%chanceofhappeningHenceanswer=1/2or50%
answeredJan27'16at13:30

Bruce
1

It'snotcleartomethat (a)and (b) areequallylikely,butitseemslikeagoodheuristic. MichaelAlbanese

Jan27'16at13:51

Itispossibletocountthedifferentconfigurationsofinteresttocalculatetheprobability
directly,byformalizingsomeoftheideasalreadypresented.
Inanallowedconfiguration,denoteadisplacementofoneormorepassengerswiththe
diagrami j wheneverpassengeri displacespassengerjfromtheirassignedseat(i < j ).
SupposeCisanallowedconfigurationwithadisplacementDofpassengers,say,. . . i j. . .
Clearlyihasapredecessor(whichcanbeaddedtothediagram)oriispassenger1,sincethe
problemstatesthatonlypassenger1isfreetodisplacepassengerswithoutbeingdisplaced
themselves.Sinceeachpredecessormustrepresentapassengerwhoboardedearlier,ofwhich
thereareafinitenumber,usingthisargumentatmostitimes,showsthatDmustbeginwith
passenger1.Byasimilarargument,Dmusthavealastpassengerwhichchoosespassenger1s
seattoendthedisplacement.
IfEisadisplacementinC,bythesameargumentitmuststartwithpassenger1,followedby
thechoicesalreadyindicatedinD,sothatEisthesameasD.Clearly,twoallowed
configurationsarethesameifandonlyiftheirdisplacementsarethesame.Additionally,note

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thatadisplacementoftheform,1 i jwhere{i,,j}isasubsetof{2,,100}in
increasingorder,alwaysspecifiesavalidconfiguration.Hence,
Thereisabijectionbetweenthesetofallowableconfigurationsanddiagramsoftheform
1 i jwhere{i,,j}isasubsetof{2,,100}inincreasingorder.
Nowcountconfigurationsbycountingthediagrams.Write1asthediagramforthenull
displacementintheconfigurationwhereallpassengerssitintheirassignedseats.Notethat
thisissameascountingallsubsetsofatwoparticularsets,sotheprobabilitythatthefinal
passengerissittingintheirassignedseatis:
Number of all diagrams of the form1ijwhere {i,,j} is a subset of {2,,99} in increasing order
Number of all diagrams of the form1klwhere {k,,l} is a subset of {2,,100} in increasing order

editedMay27'16at22:41

2
2

98

99

1
2

answeredMay26'16at6:42

rsp
1

It'ssimpleonlytwocasesarepossibleeitherthe100thpersonsitsonhisseatoron1stpersons
seatnomatterwhatothersdo100thpersonhasonlytwooptionssoprobabilityis1/2
answeredMar28'15at16:43

Ishaansingh
1

protectedbyZevChonolesMay27'16at2:46
Thankyouforyourinterestinthisquestion.Becauseithasattractedlowqualityorspamanswersthathadtoberemoved,postingananswernowrequires10reputationon
thissite(theassociationbonusdoesnotcount).
Wouldyouliketoansweroneoftheseunansweredquestionsinstead?

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