page
contents
3 Foreword
4 Summary
6 Q1: What is climate change?
8 Q2: How has climate changed?
12 Q3: Are human activities causing climate change?
16 Q4: How do we expect climate to evolve in the future?
20 Q5: How are extreme events changing?
22 Q6: How are sea levels changing?
24 Q7: What are the impacts of climate change?
28 Q8: What are the uncertainties and their implications?
30 Q9: What does science say about options to address climate change?
Foreword
The purpose of this booklet is to provide an understanding, based on our
present scientific knowledge, of some key questions about climate change.
It is an extensively revised update of a similarly titled Academy publication
in 2010 that summarised the state of knowledge at that time. It has been
prepared by a broadly-based Working Group of Australian climate scientists
with review and guidance provided by an Oversight Committee composed of
Academy Fellows and the former Chair of the Academys National Committee
for Earth System Science.
Along with its sister Academies, the Australian Academy of Science has played
an active role in assessing the science of climate change since the 1970s.
The Academy recognises the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) as the mechanism for the international scientific assessment of
climate change science, impacts and response strategies. However, it believes
that it is important that Australian climate scientists explain the science,
including its uncertainties and implications, to the Australian community in
simpler terms than can be found in most of the IPCCreports.
The Working Group who prepared this update was led by Professor Michael
Raupach FAA FTSE and Dr Ian Allison AO with special support, in the later
stages, from Professor Steven Sherwood. The views presented in the answers
to the nine key questions were carefully reviewed by an Oversight Committee
and 12 independent climate scientists* who agreed to help with the
preparation of this document. The role of the Oversight Committee was to
make sure that all reasonable review comments were properly considered by
the Working Group in preparing their final text. While the reviewers provided
more than 600 individual comments on the penultimate draft, neither they
nor the Oversight Committee are responsible for the final wording of the
detailed answers that represent the views of the expert members of the
WorkingGroup.
left: An image from space of the cloud
patterns associated with a mid-latitude
cyclone off southwest Australia.
Photo:NASA
*In addition to multi-stage review carried out by the Oversight Committee, the penultimate
draft of this document was reviewed by Dr G Ayers FTSE, Dr I G Enting, Professor D Griggs
FTSE, Professor D Karoly, Mr WR Kininmonth, Professor M J Manton FTSE, Dr K G McCracken
AO FAA FTSE, Professor N Nicholls, Dr N Smith FTSE and three anonymous reviewers.
Summary
Q1
Climate is determined by
manyfactors that influence
flows of energy through the
climate system, including
greenhouse gases
Energy from the Sun is the ultimate
driver of climate on Earth. The solar
energy received by Earth depends
on how much the Sun emits and
the distance between Earth and
the Sun. Part of this sunlight is
reflected directly back to space by
the atmosphere, clouds, and land, ice
and water surfaces. Aerosols (tiny
particles in the atmosphere, some
coming from human activities) can
increase the reflection of sunlight7, 8.
solar incoming
solar reflected
340
infrared outgoing
100
239
(Units: W m-2)
atmospheric
window
79
solar absorbed
(atmosphere)
solar down
(surface)
latent heat
185
greenhouse
gases
24
161
solar absorbed
(surface)
solar
reflected
(surface)
84 20
evaporation sensible
heat
398
342
infrared up
(surface)
infrared down
(surface)
Figure 1.1: The rates at which energy enters the Earth system from the Sun, and leaves the system, approximately balance on
averageglobally. Energy absorbed at the surface is transferred to the atmosphere via infrared radiation, conduction of sensible heat,
andevaporation of water whose latent heat is released later when the water condenses again. Energy leaves the system mostly via
infrared radiation from the atmosphere. The arrows show global average energy transfer rates in units of Watts per square metre.
Withmore greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but no other changes, the system must reach a higher temperature to maintain balance.
Adapted from IPCC (2013)11, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Figure 2.11.
Box 1.1: If weather can only be forecast about a week in advance, how can
we determine future climate?
Water vapour accounts for about half the natural greenhouse effect8. Its
concentrations in the atmosphere are controlled mainlyby atmospheric
temperatures and winds, in contrast with the concentrations of other
greenhouse gases which are directly influenced by human-induced inputs
of these gases to the atmosphere. When global average atmospheric
temperatures rise, global water vapour concentrations increase, amplifying
the initial warming through an enhanced greenhouse effect. In this way,
human activityleads indirectly to increases in water vapour concentrations.
above: Surface meteorological observing
station at Cranbourne, Victoria, typical
of stations used for observing climate
around the world. Photo: Bureau of
Meteorology
Q2
(a)
5
0
-5
-10
400
CO2 (ppm)
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Years BC
(b)
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
CO2 (ppm)
400
360
320
280
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Years AD
(c)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
CO2 (ppm)
400
360
320
280
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
Years AD
MLOST 1901-2012
GISS 1901-2012
-0.6 -0.4
-0.4 -0.2
-0.2 0.0
0 0.2
0.2 0.4
0.4 0.6
0.6 0.8
1. 1.25
-0.6
0.8 1.0
1.25 1.5
1.5 1.75
1.75 2.5
2.0
1.00
0.50
0.0
-0.50
-1.00
-0.6 1960
-0.4 1970
-0.2 1980
0
0.2
0.8
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
1990 0.4
20000.62010
Sea-surface temperature
Sea-surface temperature
10-year average
1.
Trendair(C
over period)
Surface
temperature
Q3
2004-2013
Atmospheric
growth
8.9 0.4
4.3 0.1
Land-use
change
Land sink
2.9 0.8
0.9 0.5
Ocean sink
2.6 0.5
6
4
2
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
1970
1990
2010
Atmospheric CO sinks
6
4
oceans
land
1850
Geological
reservoirs
re-B
iosp
here
Prog
ra
mme
1890
1910
1930
1950
14
for th
e Glo
bal C
arbo
n Pro
ject.
Figure 3.1: The natural carbon cycle, in which CO2 circulates between the atmosphere, land
and oceans, has been changed by emissions of CO2 from human activities. In this diagram
of the global carbon cycle, numbers on arrows represent carbon flows averaged over
20042013, in gigatonnes (billion tonnes) of carbon per year106. Source: Global Carbon
Project, with updated numbers107.
Prod
Glouced by
bal C the In
arbo
te
n Pro rnation
ject
a
2010 l Geosp
he
1870
12
Intermediate 1
Intermediate 2
Observed
10
6
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
-2
-1
CO2
Methane + other long-lived gases
Ozone + other short-lived gases
Land use change
Aerosol
Solar
Figure 3.4: Human-induced drivers of climate change have been much larger than natural
drivers over the last century138. The strength of these drivers, which are changing the
long-term energy balance of the planet, is measured in Watts per square metre (see also
Figure 1.1). Orange and green bars respectively indicate human and natural drivers; error
bars indicate 5-95% uncertainties. The solar effect (shown in green) is very small. Volcanic
effects are highly variable in time (see text) and are not shown here. Source: Working
Group for this document, with data from IPCC (2013)79, Fifth Assessment Report, Working
Group 1, Chapter 8 Supplementary Material.
Land + Ocean
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
Temp change (C)
Land
1.0
0.5
0.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
1850
1910
1960
2010
1850
1910
1960
2010
Q4
7
40
6
5
4
30
20
10
0
10
2
1
0
1
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Year
High emissions pathway
Figure 4.1: Future projected climate change depends on net emissions of greenhouse
gases. Retrospective and future projected global surface air temperature changes
(C; relative to 18611880) under both high and low emissions pathways. Individual model
simulations are shown as faint lines, with bold lines indicating the multi-model average.
The corresponding two emissions pathways, including all industrial sources, are included
in the inset. Emission units are gigatonnes (billion tonnes) of carbon per year (GtC/y).
Source: Data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5166.
Projections of surface air temperature and precipitation change for years 20812100
A model with high climate sensitivity
7
5
3
1
1
50
40
20
10
0
10
20
30
Projected %
precipitation change
30
40
50
7
AR5
AR4
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Q5
Human-induced climate
change is superimposed on
natural variability
In a warming climate, extremely cold
days occur less often and veryhot
days occur more often (Figure 5.1).
These changes have already been
Time
1960
Year
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
20
10
-10
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
10
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
1960
1980
Year
2000
2020
5
2040
9 11
2060
2080
(C)
-10
2100
Year
2020 2040
Year
Year
2060
2080
2100
70
60
historical
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
18
(d)
70
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
60
10 12 14 16 18 20
Years
10
40
60
1960
29
Relative change, %
Exceedance rate, %
Warm days
2000
(e)
1980
40
20
20
0
10
Figure 5.3: Over most continents, a heavy rainfall event that occurs only once in 20 years
today is expected to occur at least twice as often by end of the 21st century. The map
shows projections, under a high emission pathway, of the return period during 20812100
1960 1980
2000
2020 return
2040period
2060
2080 2100
for daily precipitation
values that
have a 20-year
during 19862005.
Adapted
79
Working Group 1, Technical Summary, TFE.9,
from IPCC (2013) Fifth Assessment Report,Year
Figure 1f.
(e)
9 11
Figure 5.4: The maximum temperature in any 20-year time period is expected to increase
with time, being substantially higher at the end of the 21st century than today. The map
shows projections under a high emissions pathway of the change from 19862005 to
20812100 in 20-year return values of daily maximum temperatures. Adapted from IPCC
(2013)79, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Technical Summary, TFE.9, Figure 1e.
(f)
Fut
Q6
1.2
High greenhouse gas emission pathway
Low greenhouse gas emission pathway
0.8
1.0
0.6
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.2
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
Year
Figure 6.1: Global average sea level has increased from estimated pre-industrial levels
and is projected to rise at a faster rate during the 21st century245. The blue235, orange234
and green237 curves up to 2010 are different estimates of global average sea-level change,
relative to thepre-industrial level, based on historical tide-gauge observations. The
light blue curve is the satellite altimeter observations from 1993 to 2012. Projections,
shown from 2006 to2100, are relative to the average over 19862005245 for high and low
greenhouse gas emission pathways. Adapted from IPCC (2013)79, Fifth Assessment Report,
Working Group1, Figure 13.27.
Q7
current climate
+1C
+3.5C
+5C
Cairns
species richness
Wet Tropics bioregion
species
15
610
1115
1620
2125
2630
3135
3640
4145
4650
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
1970
1975
(pts/decade)
< 100
100
200
400
600
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
250
50
45
45.1
44.9
43.4
200
40
35
36.4
33.8
150
30.5
25.5
30
25
100
20
15
50
*Deaths data from BDM and reports to SCO
26/01
27/01
28/01
29/01
10
2009 deaths
30/01
31/01
1/02
Deaths
Date
Figure 7.3: The number of deaths in Victoria during the heatwave of 26 January to
1February 2009 was much higher than the average for the comparable period in 2004-08.
Source: Victorian Department of Health report on the January 2009 heatwave314, Figure 10.
Q8
above: Cooling towers at Loy Yang, a brown coal power station near Traralgon in Victoria.
It is one of Australias biggest power stations by capacity. Photo: istockphoto/gumboot
Q9
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