Policy Analysis Guidelines For IEA

AFRICA
ENVIRONMENT
OUTLOOK
Policy Analysis Guidelines for
Integrated Environmental Assessment
and Reporting
AMCEN
United Nations Environment Programme
Copyright 2007, United Nations Environment Programme

ISBN: XXXX
UNEP Job No. XXXX
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AFRICA
ENVIRONMENT
OUTLOOK
Policy Analysis Guidelines for
and Reporting
AMCEN
United Nations Environment Programme i
CONTENTS
Acknowledgements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi
Acronyms and Abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
Foreword. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii
Introduction Why Policy Guidelines?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
POLICY ANALYSIS AND INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
STRENGTHENING CAPACITY FOR POLICY-RELEVANT IEA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
USING THE GUIDELINES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
CHAPTER 1: UNDERSTANDING THE AEO APPROACH. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
THE DPSIR FRAMEWORK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
A HUMAN-ENVIRONMENT FOCUS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Placing Opportunity at the Centre of Environmental Assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
POLICY ANALYSIS IN IEA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
CHAPTER 2: UNPACKING CONCEPTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
HUMAN WELL-BEING. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
POLICY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
GOVERNANCE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
INSTITUTIONS AND ORGANIZATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
POLICY CONTEXT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
POLICY ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Data, Information and Communication. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
POLICY FORMULATION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
POLICY ASSESSMENT: THE USE OF STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT. . . . . . . . . 21
POLICY TOOLS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Incentives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Direct controls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Empowering and enabling resource users. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Promoting education, information sharing and communication. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Improving governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
POLICY OUTCOMES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Behaviour changes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Resource reallocation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Resource and capital augmentation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
ii
POLICY FAILURE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
MARKET FAILURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
ADMINISTRATIVE FAILURE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
POLICY CAPTURE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
VULNERABILITY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
CHAPTER 3: IDENTIFYING AND REVIEWING POLICY ISSUES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
UNDERSTAND THE SUSTAINABILITYPOLICY MAKING LINKS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Assessing Sustainability in AEO. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
UNDERSTAND THE MDGNEPAD ENVIRONMENT ACTION PLAN LINKS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Source: The poverty-environment nexus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
UNDERSTAND THE HIERARCHICAL LINKAGES OF POLICIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
MAKE STRATEGIC CHOICES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Trade-environment-sustainable development links. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
UNDERSTAND THE INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITYPOLICY IMPLEMENTATION LINKS . . . . . . . . . 53
CHAPTER 4: DISCERNING ISSUES FOR RESPONSE AND ACTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
PEOPLE AND LIVELIHOODS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
POLICY IMPACTS ON LIVELIHOODS AND DEVELOPMENT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
EMERGING ISSUES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
THE OUTLOOK. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
CHAPTER 5: STRENGTHENING POLICY IMPLEMENTATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
DERIVING POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
THE ACCEPTABILITY OF THE RECOMMENDED POLICY RESPONSES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
FROM RECOMMENDED POLICY RESPONSES TO CONCRETE ACTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
CHAPTER 6: LOOKING TO THE FUTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READINGS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
FIGURES
TABLES
MATRICES
iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
UNEP wishes to acknowledge the many individuals and organizations that have contributed to
these Guidelines, authors, reviewers, especially the AEO practitioners from the 12 AEIN countries,
regional collaborating centres, and the production team.
UNEP Coordination Team
Charles Sebukeera
Munyaradzi Chenje
Sekou Toure
Chris O. Ambala
Janet Waiyaki
Priscilla Rosana
Lead Authors
Joseph Opio-Odongo
Gregory Woodsworth
Contributing Lead Authors
Jennifer Clare Mohamed-Katerere
Charles Sebukeera
Reviewers
Peter Croal
Edwin Mitchell
Lszl Pintr
Laurent Rudasingwa
Gemma Shepard
Ahmed Abdel-Rehim
Fatou Ndoye
Crepin Momo Kama
Clever Mafuta
Elizabeth Kironde Gowa
Rajendranath Mohabeer
Justin Goungounga
Moheeb Abdel-Sattar Ebrahim
Tesfaye Woldeyes
Roger Lewis Leh
Satyanand Buskalawa
Amadou Moctar Dieye
Joel Arumadri Alimudoa
Douglas Mulenga Nkolonganya
Berhe Debalkew
Kipkokei Sirma Arap Buiggutt
Joseph Masinde
Telly Eugene Muramira
Benson Owuor Ochieng
Frank Adeyemi Attere
Editor
Jennifer C. Mohamed-Katerere
Cover design, graphics and layout
Audrey Ringler, UNEP, DEWA
iv
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

AEO
Africa Environment Outlook
AEIN
Africa Environment Information Network
AMCEN
African Ministerial Conference on Environment
AU
African Union
CBD
Convention on Biological Diversity
CCP
Company-community partnerships
CSR
Corporate social responsibility
DPSIR
Drivers, Pressures, State, Impact, Response
EAC
East African Community
ECOWAS
Economic Community of West African States
EIA
Environmental Impact Assessment
ESI
Environmental Sustainability Index
GEO
Global Environment Outlook
GMO
Genetically Modified Organisms
HDR
Human Development Report
IEA
IISD
International Institute for Sustainable Development
IOC
Indian Ocean Commission
MDGs
Millennium Development Goals
MEAs
Multilateral Environmental Agreements
NEPAD
New Partnership for Africas Development
NEPAD-EAP
New Partnership for Africas Development Environment Action Plan
NEO
National Environment Outlook
NGOs
Non-governmental Organizations
PRSPs
Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers
PEN
Poverty Environment Network
PES
Payment for Environmental Services
RVF
Rift Valley Fever
SADC
Southern African Development Community
SEA
Strategic Environmental Assessment
UNDP
United Nations Development Programme
UNEP
WEHAB
Water, Energy, Health, Agriculture, Biodiversity
WSSD
World Summit on Sustainable Development
vi
FOREWORD
vii
viii
INTRODUCTION WHY POLICY GUIDELINES?
Todays children, tomorrows future. Children along the banks of the Nile, Egypt
Source: John Collinge
Integrated environmental assessment that provides comprehensive information on environmental

state-and-trends, assesses the implications for human well-being and development, and
includes an analysis of policy responses can be an invaluable tool in the policy development
process and in developing implementation strategies.
Africa Environment Outlook-2. Our Environment, Our Wealth (UNEP 2006a)
POLICY ANALYSIS AND INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

Africas rich natural resources offer many opportunities for building prosperity, but to turn this
potential into reality Africa faces many challenges. Social and economic inequality, globalisation,
inappropriate governance regimes, poverty and environmental changeespecially land degradation
and climate changeresults in numerous development challenges and threatens the sustainability
of environmental goods-and-services.
To respond effectively to these challenges, Africa must confront the underlying causes of environmental
change and continued low levels of development, and it must address the interlinkages between
them. One critical consideration is the poverty-environment nexus. If decision making is to deliver
development that is sustainable, it must increase the opportunities that countries and people have to
live lives they value while securing future options.
Such decision making requires sound, reliable and policy-relevant information. Integrated
environmental assessment (IEA)the process of assessing the complex and changing interrelationships
between the human and natural environment and of producing and communicating holistic, futureorientated, policy-relevant understanding thereofcan support such decision making. The Africa
Environment Outlook (AEO) assessment and reporting series, led by the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP), offers such an opportunity (Box 0.1). Effective policy analysis is an essential
part of the assessment (See Chapter 1).
Box 0.1: Integrated environmental assessment a recognized decision making

tool
The use of integrated environmental assessment (IEA) in decision making is gaining ground in
Africa.
In December 1985, in Cairo, the African Ministerial Conference on Environment (AMCEN)
was established as an Africa-wide forum to (UNEP 2002):
Articulate perspectives on Africas environment and ensure that these perspectives receive
incremental attention in intergovernmental organizations and the global arena.
Provide leadership in new and emerging issues at regional and global levels.
Promote the harmonization of sub-regional and regional environmental concerns and
approaches.
Advocate for adequate consideration of environmental issues at sub-regional and regional
levels.
Translate global environmental concerns into practical, feasible and achievable programmes
of action at national, sub-regional and regional levels.
Ensure that environmental concerns receive priority attention in national development
processes.
In July 2000 at its Eighth Session, AMCEN acknowledged the important role IEA can play
in supporting it in achieving these goals when it decided that an Africa Environment Outlook
(AEO) report should be prepared to provide a comprehensive scientific assessment of the
environment, environmental management, and policies in Africa.
The first AEO report was launched during the 9th session of AMCEN in July 2002. This session
is a milestone in linking policy development and rigorous, integrated environmental assessment:
at this session, AMCEN adopted the AEO reporting mechanism as a tool for:
Periodical assessment, taking stock of environmental change as well as policy performance
and effectiveness.
Looking into the future and identifying policy options for consideration at the national, subregional and regional levels.
Source: UNEP 2002
STRENGTHENING CAPACITY FOR POLICY-RELEVANT IEA

Ensuring sufficient capacity in policy-relevant IEA is critical to achieving Africas environment and
development goals. These Guidelines are part of a family of products and services designed to
contribute to developing the skills base to undertake such assessments.
The United Nations Environment Programmes (UNEP) Division for Early Warning and Assessment
(DEWA) supports these goals, its mission is:
To provide the world community with improved access to meaningful environmental data
and information, and to help increase the capacity of governments to use environmental
information for decision making and action planning for sustainable human development
(UNEP 2007a)
The Guidelines were developed (Box 0.2) in response to needs specifically articulated by those
involved in the AEO assessment process (hereafter AEO practitioners):
The primary purpose of the Guidelines is to assist AEO practitioners to adequately address
the policy issues that are pertinent to the effective and sustainable use of Africas natural
assets in a way that supports development and livelihoods.
The secondary purpose of the Guidelines is to assist environmental and development
agenciesat the national, sub-regional, and regional levelsmore effectively integrate
environment into policies and programmes across a range of sectors.
In addition, the Guidelines are intended to be used in assessment process at the local, national and
sub-regional levels. A strong regional capacity for integrated environmental assessment cannot be
anchored on weak national capacities.
Box 0.2: Developing the Guidelines
Six main steps were followed in developing the Guidelines:
First, substantive deliberations were held between the authors and the DEWA coordination
team to define their nature and ambit.
Second, a desk review was undertaken to identify the main issues and perspectives.
Third, four field missionsin Uganda, Mauritius, Zambia and Ghana were conducted in
2003 and 2004 to:
Consult with stakeholders and refine the issues to be considered in the Guidelines.
Review and assess policy-making processes in the selected countries to:
o Better understand the environmental policy processes in terms of their evolution
and orientation, policy construction, and the key actors involved.
o Gauge the extent to which the policy processes were evidence-based and how the
various policy actors accessed and used available environmental information.
o Identify the opportunities for ensuring that the AEO reporting process impacts on
policy making and policy implementation at the country level.
o Identify the capacity development needs for more effective utilization of
environment information in policy making and undertaking strategic environmental
assessment (SEA).
Fourth, the draft Guidelines were produced and peer reviewed by policy and programme
specialists in UNEP, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the African Institute
for Environment Assessment, and the International Institute for Sustainable Development
(IISD).
Fifth, the draft Guidelines was presented to AEO practitioners, from 12 Africa Environment
Information Network (AEIN) pilot countries, at a validation workshop in July 2004 in
Nairobi.
Sixth, the draft was revised taking into account the comments of both peers and
practitioners.
Source: UNEP 2002
USING THE GUIDELINES

The Guidelines are designed to be used by AEO practitioners with considerable experience in
environmental management issues, particularly within their own countries.
In six chapters, the Guidelines support the AEO assessment and reporting process by building
capacity for this policy analysis through:
1. Strengthening understanding of an opportunities- and people-focused approach to IEA in Africa
and of the role of policy analysis in the assessment process (Chapter 1).
2. Establishing a shared vocabulary of key concepts, with some examples of how these are applied
(Chapter 2).
3. Providing five rules of thumb for identifying and reviewing policy issues that underpin the
use of natural capital for sustainable development, and specifically for improving livelihoods
(Chapter 3). These rules focus on:
a) Improving understanding of how the sustainability ethos influences approaches to policy
making.
b) Understanding the links between the AEO themes, the NEPAD Environment Action Plan
(NEPAD-EAP), and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and their significance for
policy-relevant assessment.
c) Understanding the complex hierarchical links between policiesfrom local to global

levelsand the implications of this for implementation, performance, and achieving desired
outcomes.
d) Making strategic choices through the use of tools that help identify hidden impacts of policies
and assess the compatibility of different polices.
e) Enhancing understanding of the institutional and capacity development issues that affect the
implementation of the AEO policy recommendations.
4) Providing guidance on discerning policy responses and actions (Chapter 4). And, demonstrating
the link between policy analysis and identifying appropriate policy responses and actions. This
sets the basis for AEO practitioners to extract the main policy messages that underpin the policy
recommendations and actions.
5) Strengthening the implementation of the AEO policy recommendations through designing
assessment processes that enhance the acceptability and legitimacy of AEO outputs. In addition
the Chapter considers how supporting actors at the national level can contribute to these ends
(Chapter 5).
6) Looking to the future and considering how to further strengthen the guidelines and capacity for
undertaking assessments (Chapter 6).
Figure 0.1: Structure of the Guidelines
LOOKING
TO THE FUTURE
(Chapter 6)
STRENGTHENING POLICY
IMPLEMENTATION
(Chapter 5)
DISCERNING ISSUES FOR
RESPONSE & ACTION
(Chapter 4)
IDENTIFYING AND REVIEWING POLICY ISSUES
(Chapter 3)
UNPACKING CONCEPTS
(Chapter 2)
UNDERSTANDING THE AEO APPROACH
(Chapter 1)
The Guidelines are built on six interlinked chapters designed to develop capacity for policy analysis
in IEA. In turn better IEA supports more legitimate and forward-looking policy recommendations that
maximizes environmental opportunities for development and improved livelihoods.
Photo: Jennifer Mohamed-Katerere
Complementary texts support the Guidelines

The Guidelines are designed to be used in conjunction with the Handbook on Policy Analysis
for Integrated Environmental Assessment and Reporting (hereafter the Handbook). This handbook
provides practical guidance for the application of the Guidelines and a more comprehensive list of
suggested readings.
The background papers produced for these Guidelines; the AEO family of publications; and other
policy literature also provide useful information and analytical guidance. The two background
papers produced as part of the process of developing the Guidelines are a literature review on
integrated policy analysis (Opio-Odongo 2004) and case studies on water and forest sector policies
in Uganda and Kenya (Ochieng 2004; Muramira 2004). Lessons learnt from these case studies are
expected to support the review of environmental policies in the other African countries.
The two AEO reports produced thus far, Africa Environment Outlook: Past, present and future
perspectives and Africa Environment Outlook 2: Our Environment, Our Wealth, provide many
examples of the impact of specific policies. The AEO vulnerability case studies, Africa Environment
Outlook: Human Vulnerability to Environmental Change, also offers valuable insights.
Worktables and matrices are intended to facilitate deliberations in the AEO working groups, support
the analytical process, and help users structure retrospective and proactive reviews of environmental
and non-environmental policies that impact on sustainable development and livelihoods at the
national, sub-regional, and regional levels.
Summary sheets assist users discern policy-related issues and questions in the course of the
assessment. They are to be used throughout the assessment process, and specifically in the chapters
on people and livelihoods, environment state-and-trends and opportunities for development,
emerging challenges, and the outlook. The information recorded in these summary sheets ultimately
serves as a building block for the chapter on policy actions. This ensures that options-for-action
identified in this final chapter follow logically from the assessments and analyses undertaken for the
preceding chapters.
Text boxes are used to provide supportive information, provide illustrative examples of how policy
has been implemented and its impacts, and to demonstrate how certain concepts and tools are
applied.
Guidance is provided throughout the Guidelines to help users focus on pertinent policy questions
and policy issues. Practical steps, to give effect to the guidance are elaborated on in the Handbook
on Policy Analysis for Integrated Environmental Assessment and Reporting.
The AEO Policy Analysis Working Groupcomposed of policy analysis expertswill play a
supportive role in applying the Guidelines, undertaking policy analysis, and building policy analysis
capacity.
CHAPTER
UNDERSTANDING THE AEO APPROACH
A poster depicting the Environment for Development theme of AEO-2

Source: UNEP
In this Chapter:
UNEPs Global Environment Outlook (GEO) assessment framework is described.
The Opportunities Frameworkan opportunities and people-focused approach to integrated
environmental assessment (IEA) for Africais explained.
The role of policy analysis in IEA is considered.
A clearly defined, agreed and shared analytical framework ensures that the assessment is coherent
and sets the basis for multiple working groups to successfully contribute to the assessment process.
THE DPSIR FRAMEWORK

The Africa Environment Outlook (AEO) assessment and reporting processpart of GEO assessment
and reporting seriesprovides regional insight into the state, trends and challenges of environment
and development. It provides understanding of the major environment challenges facing Africa and
offers policy options for consideration by Africas decision-makers.
The AEO assessment methodology is based on the GEO DriversPressureStateImpactResponses
(DPSIR) framework (Figure 1.1). This analytical framework goes beyond a focus on ecosystems and
covers the entire environment and its interaction with society, considering the key components of the
complex and multidimensional, spatial, and temporal interactions between society and environment
(UNEP 2007c). This framework is generic and flexible, and recognizes that a specific thematic and
geographic focus may require a specific and customized framework. It is designed to be policyrelevant and easy to grasp and communicate, while at the same time being scientifically credible
and able to support and compile highly complex information (UNEP 2007c).
Figure 1. 1: The DPSIR Framework

Global
Regional
Local
HUMAN SOCIETY
DRIVERS (D):
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STATE-AND-TRENDS (S)
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atmosphere, land, water and
biosphere
Environmental impacts and change:
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The DPSIR framework presents the complex interaction between the human and environment systems
and provides understanding of how and why these are changing over time:
Drivers refer to the fundamental processes in society, which drive activities that have a
direct impact on the environment. The characteristics and importance of each driver differs
substantially from context to context.
Pressures can be distinguished from drivers in that they refer to specific factors or phenomenon
which impact on the environment. These include human interventions that intentionally or
unintentionally cause environmental change. Land use practice, often intentionally cause
environmental change; in contrast pollution is most often an unintended by-product of industrial
or agricultural activity. Pressures may act alone or in concert.
State-and-trends refer to the existing condition of environmental resource and how this is
changing over time. A trend is a pattern of change over time with a certain tendency, trajectory
or direction and does not include all environmental change. For example, an industrial
accident that leads to water pollution will not be part of a trend unless such accidents are the
norm or if there is a growing incidence of such accidents. The clearing of land for agriculture
that contributes to biodiversity loss will constitute a trend where there is evidence that there is
a general tendency to clear land for agriculture.
Impacts refer to resulting changes in human well-being, social and economic sectors, or
environmental goods-and-services.
Responses refer to the full range of human actions to address specific issues, needs, opportunities
and problems. Responses include policies, strategies, and interventions; these may be within
legal, technical, institutional, economic, and behavioral domains. The scale of operational
may vary spatially (individual, local, national, regional or global) and temporally.
The arrows within the framework are used to denote the broad relationships between these different
aspects.
Source: UNEP 2007c, UNEP 2006
A HUMAN-ENVIRONMENT FOCUS
The first cycle of the AEO assessment and reporting process (AEO-1) used the DPSIR framework
for analysis. It focused on the 30 year period from 1972 to 2002. In reporting on the state of the
environment, it analysed the historical trends and policies that have driven environmental change
in Africa. It addresses the issue of environmental change through the lens of human vulnerability:
identifying how human vulnerability has increased, projecting future trends in environment and
vulnerability, and recommending policy actions which could lead the region to more positive
outcomes (UNEP 2004). The report showed clearly that Africas environmentrural and urban
has deteriorated in the period under review.
Recognizing, the conclusions and recommendations of the AEO-1 report, the second cycle of the
AEO process (AEO-2) focused on the opportunities Africa has to improve livelihoods and human
well-being and set it on a path of sustainable development (Box 1.1). Achieving this future is not
inevitable, African nations face stark choices which require focused and creative policy responses.
By providing critical information about the state of the environment and forward-looking policy
analysis, the AEO-2 assessment makes an invaluable contribution to effective decision making.
Box 1.1: Africa Environment Outlook-2: Our Environment, Our Wealth
The Africa Environment Outlook-2: Our Environment, Our
Wealth, challenges the myth that Africa is poor.
The report illustrates how Africas vast environmental resources,
if sensitively, sustainably, and creatively managed, can be the
basis for an African renaissancea renaissance that meets and
goes beyond the internationally agreed Millennium Development
Goals (UNEP 2006b).
The report highlights the opportunities presented by the natural
resource base to support development and to realize the
objectives of the African Union (AU) and the New Partnership
for Africas Development (NEPAD). The report underscores
the need for sustainable livelihoods, and the importance of
environmental
initiatives in supporting them. Emphasis is put on what should and can be done with existing
(remaining) environmental assets, in the context of identified constraints (issues), rather than
focusing on what has been already lost.
Box 1.1: Africa Environment Outlook-2: Our Environment, Our Wealth
(continued)
Specifically, AEO-2 Our Environment, Our Wealth draws attention to the need to:
Adopt an interlinkages approach to environment and development to ensure more effective
delivery of environment and human well-being benefits. One option considered is fostering
partnerships between the health, trade and infrastructural development sectors.
Maximize environmental and social benefits through interlinked environmental management.
For example, improved land or water management may have positive spin-offs for
biodiversity.
Increase institutional, human, and financial investment in sustainable use and management
of the remaining natural capital including.
Add value to the available or existing natural assets.
Promote efficient utilization of available resources through better valuation, removing
perverse incentives, and increasing investment in technology and capacity.
At the same time, efforts to safeguard the remaining natural asset and secure future options
must be maintained and intensified.
The AEO-2 report is organized in 5 parts, examining:
Environment for Development (The Human Dimension)
Environmental state-and-trends (Atmosphere, Coastal and Marine Environments, Forests and
Woodlands, Biodiversity, The Environment and Policy Web)
Emerging Challenges (Genetically Modified Crops, Invasive Alien Species, Chemicals,
Conflict)
Outlook (The Future Today)
Policy Opportunities (Back to Our Common Future: A Renaissance for the Environment)
Source: UNEP 2006a, UNEP 2006b
Placing Opportunity at the Centre of Environmental Assessment

Building on the DPSIR framework, AEO-2 adopted an Opportunities Framework (Figure 1.1) for
analysis focusing the assessment on the available resource base and the opportunities this provides
for sustainable development, improving human well-being, alleviating extreme poverty, reducing
vulnerability, and enhancing environmental sustainability.
The Opportunities Framework emphasizes hope over despair, resolution over regret, and strategic
response over reaction. Echoing this approach, the report itself is aptly titled: Africa Environment
Outlook 2: Our Environment, Our Wealth.
The Opportunities Framework (Figure 1.2) addresses five related questions (UNEP 2006a):
1) What are the available resources at regional and sub-regional levels?
2) What is the valueopportunities and potentialof these resources ecologically, socially, and
economically?
3) What are the demands and pressures (both human and natural) placed on the sustainable
management of these resources?
4) What is the outlook if appropriate action is not taken now?
5) What policy actions have been adopted to enhance opportunities and what policy actions
are needed to reduce the pressures and sustainably maximize the potential of available
resources?
10
Figure 1.2 The Opportunities Framework

Global, regional,
national and
local conditions
STATE
Options
rade
Demands and
pressures on the
environment
Deg
OPPORTUNITIES
POLICY ACTIONS
d
rade
Deg
CURRENT
TRENDS
Impacts on and new

state of environment:
Ecosystems, human and
economic vulnerability
Tanzania
The Opportunities Framework shows that the available environmental opportunities for improving
well-being and ensuring sustainable development are a product of environmental state-and- trends
shaped by multiple drivers and pressures; the existing socio-economic conditions at global, regional,
national, and local scales; and current policy actions. In turn opportunities also affect these four
factors. The background map illustrates that the Opportunities Framework is applicable at regional,
sub-regional, and national levels.
Source: Munyaradzi Chenje
Integrating an analysis of sustainable livelihoods (Figure 1.2) made the assessment alert to the
multiple vulnerabilities and the impacts of institutions laws and policieson livelihood strategies
and especially on the ability of people to manage available assets to meet their needs. At the
same time it allowed for thorough consideration of the interplay between economic, social and
environmental dimensions of sustainable developmentdrawing upon local knowledge and
modern sciencewhile factoring in the influences of domestic and external policies. The assessment
strategically coupled evidence-based (science-driven) environmental information with environmental
policy recommendations, setting a firm foundation for effective policy responses. Importantly, the
Sustainable Livelihoods Framework directs attention to the most likely challenges to be faced in
developing sustainable environmental actions for national and human development and improving
livelihoods.

Figure 1.3 Sustainable Livelihoods Framework
VULNERABILITY
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The sustainable livelihoods framework presents the main factors that affect ability of people to
achieve desired livelihood outcomes and typical relationships between these. It includes the:
Vulnerability context in which (different groups of) people live, including the effects upon
them of external trends (such as economic, technological, population growth), shocks
(natural or manmade) and seasonality.
Access to assets (physical, human, financial, natural and social) that people have and their
ability to put these to productive and social use.
Institutions, policies and organizations which shape livelihoods, choices and opportunities.
Diverse strategies that people adopt in pursuit of their goals.
The arrows within the framework are used to denote a variety of different types of relationships, all
of which are highly dynamic. None of the arrows imply direct causality, though all imply a certain
level of influence.
Source: DfID 1999
POLICY ANALYSIS IN IEA

Policy making seeks to define a clear course of action selected from identified alternatives, as well
as achieve identified goals and overall development objectives.
Policy making is a complex, non-linear process although commonly 5 stages are identified.
Throughout the policy-making process a complex set of factors including public, stakeholder, and
state interests and values, funding, networks and alliances, and social and economic conditions
affect the process (Figure 1.4).
Credible and reliable informationincluding that produced through policy analysiscan help
improve decision-making by reducing uncertainty, increasing understanding and clarity, bringing new
perspectives on existing problems, and enhancing the quality of public debate and consultation.
Integrated Environmental Assessment can assist the policy-maker by providing credible scientific
information about environmental state-and-trends as well as evidence-based policy analysis. A
variety of tools can be used in policy analysis. The stages of policy analysis and the choice of tool
depends are discussed more fully in Chapter 2.
Figure 1.4: The policy process
SOCIALLY
CONSTRUCTED REALITY
Media
POLITICAL & ECONOMIC

Alliances, political and
economic elites,
globalization
KNOWLEDGE
Experts, stakeholders,
governments
NATIONAL &
INTERNATIONAL
OBLIGATIONS
MEAs, law and policy, debt
CAPACITY
Institutional Technical
Budgetary
AGENDA SETTING
POLICY FORMULATION
POLICY ADOPTION
POLICY IMPLEMENTATION
Identifying key problems
Identifying and analyzing

policy options
Making policy choice
Formal adoption meeting

legal and other obligations
Outputs
Impacts
Outcomes
POLICY IMPLEMENTATION
Outputs
Impacts
Outcomes
This figure shows that policy making is impacted on by the social, political, and economic context
with multiple factors and actors shaping the policy-making stages including policy outcomes. The
links between the different stages is neither direct nor crisp given the multiple interests at play.
12
Source: Jennifer Mohamed-Katerere based on Barkenbus 1998
CHAPTER
UNPACKING CONCEPTS
Shared understanding shapes future paths: farmers and researchers in Burkina Faso share experiences and discuss the
challenges of achieving sustainable livelihoods in dryland forests.
Source: Yemi Katerere
In this Chapter:
Key concepts are defined.
Illustrations of how some concepts can be used in identifying policy issues and addressing
policy questions at the various stages of the assessment process.
A common vocabulary supports effective information development and communication across the
different working groups during the Africa Environment Outlook (AEO) assessment and reporting
process.
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Sustainable development refers to development which meets the needs of the present generation
without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (WCED 1987).
It entails the integration of economic, social, and environmental objectives, while conferring on
society the obligation to uphold the intra-generational and inter-generational equity in pursuit of
development needs (UNEP 2007c).
Sustainable development is a guiding aspiration for the developing policy and designing strategies
to meet desired outcomes. First articulated in modern environmental policy at the United Nations
Conference on the Human Environment in 1972 it has evolved into a vision for many countries. And
consequently, it is of increasing importance in policy making. Key landmarks in its development
include:
The World Conservation Strategy (1980)
The World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) also known as the
Brundtland Commission
The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (1992)
The World Summit on Sustainable Development (2002)
13
Sustainable development focuses on improving human well-being and the overall quality of life for
all, while ensuring that the environmentthrough which life is supportedis used in a sustainable
way. In this sense, sustainable development is a forward-looking concept and its achievement
demands taking action and developing appropriate policies and practices. Agenda 21a globally
agreed action-orientated strategyidentifies key areas for action to be addressed by policy-makers,
if sustainable development is to become a reality.
Progress on the Millennium Development goals (MDGs)a globally agreed set of time-bound
development objectivesprovides a useful basis for monitoring and evaluating development
outcomes (Box 2.1). Similarly, the goals of the Environmental Initiative of the New Partnership
for Africas Development (NEPAD) and its Environment Action Plan (NEPAD-EAP) as well as the
sustainable development challenges of the Small Islands Developing States need to inform the
assessment of policy. These development targets need to be complement by the use of other globally
agreed targets particular those in the environmental sector. This includes the Biodiversity 2010
targets (Box 2.2) as well as those adopted under different multi-lateral environmental agreements.
Chapter 3 provides guidance on factoring sustainable development concerns in to the assessment.
Box 2.1: The Millennium Development Goals
Goal
Goal
Goal
Goal
Goal
Goal
Goal
Goal
1:
2:
3:
4:
5:
6:
7:
8:
Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Achieve universal primary education
Promote gender equality and empower women
Reduce child mortality
Improve maternal health
Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases
Ensure environmental sustainability
Develop a global partnership for development
Source: UN 2007
Box 2.2: The 2010 Biodiversity Goals

Goal 1: Promote the conservation of the biological diversity of ecosystems, habitats and
biomes
Goal 2: Promote the conservation of species diversity
Goal 3: Promote the conservation of genetic diversity
Goal 4: Promote sustainable use and consumption
Goal 5: Pressures from habitat loss, land-use change and degradation, and unsustainable
water use reduced
Goal 6: Control threats from invasive alien species
Goal 7: Address challenges to biodiversity from climate change and pollution
Goal 8: Maintain capacity of ecosystems to deliver goods and services and support
livelihoods.
Goal 9: Maintain socio-cultural diversity of indigenous and local communities
Goal 10: Ensure the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising out of the use of genetic
resources.
Goal 11: Parties have improved financial, human, scientific, technical and technological
capacity to implement the Convention.
Source: Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity 2006
HUMAN WELL-BEING
14
Human well-being refers to the extent to which individuals have the ability to live the kinds of lives
they have reason to value and the opportunities people have to achieve their aspirations (UNEP
2007c).
Quality of lifehow people actually liveis a good indicator of this ability. This includes, but
is not limited to, adequate nourishment, good health, security, self -respect, and participating in
community life. The MDGs aim to improve the quality of life of the poorest and most vulnerable
people. The United Nations Development Programmes (UNDP) Human Development Report (HDR)
uses several indicators to assess human development.
Many aspects of human well-being including health, security, good social relations, and access to
material goods are closely related to environmental states, trends, and opportunities (see Figure
2.1). The link between the environment and human well-being is complex, non-linear and influenced
by multiple factors including poverty, trade, technology, gender, social relations, governance,
and the different aspects of vulnerability. Global interconnectednessthrough a shared natural
environment and globalizationmeans that achieving human well-being in one place may be
affected by practices elsewhere (Jger and others 2007).
Figure 2.1: Linkages between ecosystem services and human well-being
CONSTITUENTS OF WELL-BEING
ECOSYSTEMS SERVICES
Provisioning
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This Figure depicts the strength of linkages between categories of ecosystem services and
components of human well-being that are commonly encountered, and includes indications of the
extent to which it is possible for socio-economic factors to mediate the linkage. (For example, if it is
possible to purchase a substitute for a degraded ecosystem service, then there is a high potential for
mediation.) The strength of the linkages and the potential for mediation differ in different ecosystems
and regions. In addition to the influence of ecosystem services on human well-being depicted here,
other factorsincluding other environmental factors as well as economic, social, technological,
and cultural factorsinfluence human well-being, and ecosystems are in turn affected by changes
in human well-being.
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
15
POLICY
Policyin its widest senseis used to denote any form of established societal intervention or
response to existing and emerging challenges.
Most commonly, policy is understood as decisions taken by those with the legal mandate to do so
and these decisions are expressed in formal or official documents and executed by the relevant
arms of government (Keeley and Scoones, 2003). Such public policies are often supported by
strategies or other implementation tools such as laws.
Policies, however, are not always formally enunciated and can also be inferred from established
or longstanding practices. This may include actions, inactions, or a web of inter-related decisions.
For example, public management of the environment and natural resources may indicate what
established policy in specific areas is: if public officials routinely apply a precautionary approach
this could be consider as policy.
Policy includes not only statements of intent such as a water policy or forest policy, but also other
forms of intervention such as economic instruments, subsidies, and institutional or legal reform
including for example, decentralization.
Policy can thus be seen as a tool for the exercise of governance.
GOVERNANCE
Governance refers to the manner in which society exercises control over resources, including natural
resources. It denotes the mechanisms through which control over resources is defined and access
is regulated.
Governance is exercised through institutions (laws and policies), property rights systems, and
other forms of social organization. Multiple and diverse groupsother than just the stateare
involved in governance, these include the market, civil society groups, and local organizations. In
many African countries, natural resource governance takes place through a complex institutional
and organizational web including the state, traditional or customary authorities, the market, and
sometimes also civil society organizations.
Governance should be distinguished from management, which refers to the day-to-day tasks
undertaken in maintaining or distributing resources, including natural resources.
INSTITUTIONS AND ORGANIZATIONS

The terms institutions and organizations should be distinguished (North 1990)
Institutions refer to regularized patterns of interaction through which society organizes itself. This
includes the rules, practices, and conventions that structure human interaction. The term is wide and
encompassing and can include law, social relationships, property rights and tenure systems, norms,
beliefs, customs, and codes of conduct, as well as multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs),
other international conventions, and financing mechanisms.
Institutions can be formal (explicit, written, and having the sanction of the state) or informal (unwritten,
implied, tacit, and mutually agreed or accepted). Formal institutions include law, MEAs, by-laws,
and memorandum of understanding. Informal institutions include unwritten rules, codes of conduct,
and value systems.
16
Organizations refer to bodiesmade up of individualswith a specified common objective.

Organizations could be political organizations (such as political parties, governments, and
ministries), economic organizations (such as federations of industry), or social organizations (such
as non-governmental organizations (NGOs), self-help groups, religious organizations, and trusts).
Box 2.3: NEPAD as an institutionNEPAD as an organization

When NEPAD is referred to as an organization, reference is made to it as a body with a certain
membership, structure, and a set of objectives. This includes for example the objectives set-out
in its Environment Action Plan.
When it is referred to as an institution, reference is made to the rules and regulations surrounding
its membershiphow they relate to each other and their rights and obligationsas well as its
practices of decision making. This would include, for example, the rules setout in the African
Peer Review Mechanism (APRM). The APRM is a mutually agreed instrument voluntarily acceded
to by the Member States of the African Union (AU) as an African self-monitoring mechanism.
POLICY CONTEXT
The policy context refers to the circumstances that prompt and mould policy formulation and
pronouncement.
The policy context varies across and within spatial (local, national, sub-regional, regions) dimensions,
with for example countries having different motivations for agreeing to common policies. The policy
context also varies over time.
The policy context includes a wide variety of social, political, and economic circumstances. For
example, it may include the extent of public participation or the nature of the science-policy interface.
The policy context is often fluid because of the dynamism of the domestic and global economic and
environmental situations.
The policy context is urgent or reactive when the policy-maker is prompted to take policy actions
outside the normal or routine policy-making process, as would be the case when an environmental
emergency occurs. In contrast, the policy context is routine when the policy is made as a matter
of course following established procedures. Such procedures may include, for example, stipulated
consultation processes with stakeholders. The policy context can also be considered to fall in the
grey-zone when the situation prompting policy making is neither urgent nor routine. Grey contexts
are usually associated with high-profile policies.
Guidance 1
Assess the national and regional policy context to discern:
(a) The impact of policy context on the nature of policy.
(b) Slippages that occur in the effort to ensure that policy-making is evidence based.
(c) Policy implementation challenges and undesirable policy outcomes.
POLICY ANALYSIS
Policy analysis has both a narrow and broad definition. Narrowly defined, it is the process
of applying a defined set of procedures and tools, largely drawn from economics and related
disciplines, to public policy problems (Woolf 1999). Broadly defined, it is a client-oriented
advice relevant to public decision and informed by values (Weimer and Vining 1999).
17
Policy analysis is intended to provide supportive and relevant information to stakeholders in the
policy-making process. It answers five basic questions:
What is the nature of the problem(s)? The answer to this helps define and characterize the
policy problem (s).
What present and past policies have been established to address the problem(s), and what
are their impacts? The answer to this reveals the policy outcomes.
How valuable are those outcomes in solving the problem(s) at hand? The answer to which
establishes policy performance.
What policy alternatives are available to address the problem(s), and what are their likely
future outcomes? The answers to which reflects on policy futures.
What are the preferred alternative courses of actions for solving the problem(s) at hand? The
answer to this pertains to policy response and policy actions.
Table 2.1 shows how policy analysis can support decision makers in the different policy-making
stages.
Table 2.1: Policy analysis procedure and its contribution to policy making
Procedure
Purpose and information developed
Policy-making
stage
Problem
structuring or
identification
(definition)
Problem analysis.
Agenda setting
Provides policy-relevant information and

knowledge on causes and hidden assumptions.
Maps possible objectives.
Synthesizes the range of views.
Designs new policy options.
Forecasting
(prediction)
Credible analysis of policy alternatives including

of doing nothing.
Provides policy-relevant comparative information
and knowledge on probable future states
resulting from adopting given policy alternatives.
This may include:
examining and evaluating plausible,
potential, and normatively valued
alternative futures;
predicting consequences of existing and
proposed policies;
specifying probable future constraints on
the achievement of objectives; and
assessing the political feasibility of
different options.
18
Policy
formulation
(development)
Recommendation
(prescription)
Provides policy-relevant information and

knowledge on the benefits and costs of
alternative policy options.
Policy adoption
Estimates levels of risk and uncertainty.

Identifies externalities.
Specifies criteria for making choices.
Assigns administrative responsibility for
implementing policies.
Monitoring
(description)
Provides policy-relevant knowledge about the

consequences of previously adopted policies to
help guide implementation including:
assessing the extent of compliance;
identifying unintended consequences of
existing policies and programmes;
identifying implementation obstacles and
constraints; and
establishing where responsibility for
previous departures from polices lies.
Policy
implementation
Evaluation
(evaluation)
Provides policy-relevant knowledge about the

relationship between expected and actual policy
performance (outputs, impacts, outcomes).
Policy
assessment
Draws conclusions about the extent to which

problems have been alleviated.
Clarifiesand critiquesthe values driving
policy. Provides information for the adjustment or
reformulation of policies.
Establishes a basis for restructuring problems.
Source: Adapted from R. Stephen Daniels (undated), Introduction to the Public Policy process. Seminar in Public Policy
Analysis. Department of Public Policy and Administration, California State University, Bakersfield.
For policy analysis to make a contribution to the decision-making process it must be relevant and
timely. The opportunity to influence policy depends heavily on timing in the flow of events. To encourage uptake by policy-makers, technical analysis should be organized and communicated in a
simple, clear, honest, fair and transparently manner that illustrates policy relevance.
Data, Information and Communication
Good data and information is essential for effective policy analysis. For the AEO assessment, policy
analysts should pay particular attention to the quality and quantity of data, available analytical
capacity within the sub-region, and the need to carefully balance considerations of hard-science
with those of soft-science and the stakeholder interests.
Figure 2.2 depicts the various ways in which the policy analyst could strategically engage in policy
communication. How assessment findings are communicated influences the extent to which they are
taken up by stakeholders. The channels and style of communication should be appropriate for a
given audience. The assessment should have a high impact communication strategy that conveys
the essential messages simply, clearly, and powerfully.
19
Figure 2.2: The process of policy communication

KNOWLEDGE
Policy
analysis
Policy problems
Policy futures
Policy actions
Policy outcomes
Policy performance
Materials
development
POLICY
ANALYST
Policy memorandum
Policy issue papers
Executive summaries
Appendices
News releases
STAKEHOLDER
Agenda setting
Policy formulation
Policy adoption
Policy implementation
Policy assessment
DOCUMENTS
PRESENTATIONS
Knowledge
utilization
Conversations
Conferences
Meetings
Briefings
Hearings
Interactive
communication
This figure shows the central role policy analysts play in developing relevant and strategic
information for effective policy communication through policy analysis, materials development,
interactive communication, and knowledge utilization. The outputs of these activities or actions are
represented in the rectangles.
Source: Daniels (undated)
Relevant and appropriate analytical tools should be used to analyse policy issues and questions,
drawing on relevant expertise within the sub-region. Successful and policy-relevant assessment
requires analytical processes that:
appreciate and understand the context;
address the needs of potential users;
treat assessment as a communication process; and
connect global, regional, and local level issues.
Guidance 2
(a) Understand the policy context. Connect global, regional, and local level issues.
(b) Assess the needs of potential users.
(c) Treat the assessment as a communication process.
20
POLICY FORMULATION
Policy formulationalso called policy developmentis the pre-decision phase in which alternatives
are identified and analysed.
Policy formulation includes analytical and political dimensions:
The analytical dimension is about conceiving and clearly articulating effective policy
alternatives that are based on credible analysis.
The political dimension is about endorsing and authorizing one or more of recommended
policy actions in accordance with laid-down procedures as well as defined goals and
objectives.
Effective policy formulation is achieved when the policy proposal is valid, efficient, and generally
acceptable for addressing the identified problem(s). The acceptability of a policy proposal rests on
endorsement and sanctioning of the proposed course of action by the decision-makers in particular
and the stakeholders in general.
Achieving political endorsement across a sub-region or the region as a whole can be challenging,
especially when resources are shared by countries with different ideological inclinations, priorities,
or development strategies. This is particularly the case with strategic resources such as water, forests
and petroleum.
Comparing successful and less successful policy formulation processes can provide useful information
that can guide the development of future policy processes. In the report some of these experiences
can be highlighted in text boxes.
Guidance 3
Establish the extent to which perceptions of the relevance (salience), scientific plausibility
(credibility), and fairness (legitimacy) of the information used in the previous assessments
impacted on the extent to which recommendations were implemented.
Document cases where the AEO process has begun to influence the quality of environmental
policy-making and of the production of national and sub-regional environmental assessments.
POLICY ASSESSMENT: THE USE OF STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is an assessment tool for analysing policies and
programmes and providing strategic direction.
As a strategic assessment tool it is qualitatively different from other forms of impact assessment,
such as Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) (Nobel 2000, Table 2.2, Figure 2.3). In an SEA
basic long-term objectives are determined, a course of action is developed, and the allocation
of resources necessary to achieve defined goals is agreed (Koontz, ODonnell, and Weihrich
1976, and R. Therivel, E. Wilson, S. Thompson, D. Heaney and D. Oritchard (1992). Further, a
clear set of principles and objectives are used to shape the visions and development intentions,
which in turn are presented in a set of alternatives, policies, plans, or programmes. In contrast, an
EIA is an analytical process or procedure that systematically examines the possible environmental
consequences of the implementation of a given activity (project, programme or policies) (UNEP
2007c). The aim of an EIA is to ensure that the environmental implications of potential decisions
related to a given activity are taken into account before the decisions are made (UNEP 2007c).
21
Table 2.2: Defining characteristics of EIA and SEA

Environmental Impact Assessment
Strategic Environmental Assessment
Represents an end and therefore brings closure

to an issue or undertaking
Leads to a strategy for action and therefore is a

means to an end
Goals and objectives are predetermined it

therefore predicts the potential outcomes of an
already pre-determined option
Set in context of broader vision, goals and

objectives it therefore examines strategies to
accomplish particular goals and objectives
Asks what are the impacts of our option?
Asks what is the preferred option?
Forecasts in the sense that it predicts and

assesses the likely outcomes of a specific
undertaking
Back-casts, then forecasts in the sense that it

determines a range of options based on a
vision, and then forecasts the likely outcomes
of each option
Reactive
Proactive
Project specific
Not project-specific
Narrow focus and highly detailed
Broad focus and low level of detail
Source: Noble 2000
Using a SEA can contribute to improved decision-making for environmental protection and
sustainable development by:
Providing broad environmental vision.
Incorporating sustainability principles into policy-making process thus ensuring the integration
of environmental concerns in development.
Enabling the tiering (taking in ascending levels) of environmental sustainability and ensuring
an integrated approach to policy, planning and programming.
Considering the effects of proposed strategic actions (policy, programme and plan);
Supporting the anticipation of impacts that may occur at project level, thereby helping to
strengthen the attendant EIA.
Identifying the best practicable environmental option.
Providing a better context than environmental impact assessment (EIA) for assessing cumulative
effects and providing early warning of cumulative effects and large-scale changes.
Providing the context for screening lower level environmental decisions, for example those
made through EIA.
In addition to improving decision making, SEA has several other important benefits. It also provides
a mechanism and supports for systematic review of decisions. The clearer and more rigorous
definition of the environmental issues and targets supports effective monitoring and evaluation.
This can result in the refinement of the strategic concepts in policy, planning and programming. By
ensuring transparency and participation, SEA potentially garners greater public support, than other
assessment methodologies, for the preferred options or strategies.
A number of techniques can be used in SEA; these include scenarios and simulations, forecasting,
input-output models, land suitability analysis, geographical information systems, systems modelling,
multi-criteria analysis, goal achievement matrices, planning balance sheets, cost-minimization
techniques, and sensitivity analysis.
22
Figure 2.3: Application of SEA and EIA Assessment Tools

Perceived Need: demand for increase in electricity supply in developing region
Vision of Regional Development Plan: Sound environmental and economic growth
Goals/Objectives
Provide energy sources to meet
anticipated increase in electricity
demand in an economically feasible and
environmentally acceptable manner
Targets
- Development must start in 6 months
- Development complete in 2 years
within budgetary limits as outlined
in the regional plan
- X megawatts required from the project
2. Least negative options
Options are evaluated in terms of stated

goals, objectives and targets, and
assessed against certain criteria that
must be met
Phase II: Acceptable alternatives

identified and evaluated
A. Hydro: Mini developments or one
large development
D. Increased efficiency (existing
thermal)
- sustainability criteria
- acceptable levels of environmental
change
3. Desirable options
Indicators are selected to

determine whether each option
satisfies the specified criteria.
Phase III: Acceptable alternatives

A. Hydro: mini development
D. Increased efficiency (existing
thermal)
X. Combination of A and D
Phase IV: most desirable

alternative
A. Hydro mini development
EIA of strategic decision: alternative locations and technical design; likely impacts (detailed); mitigation measures
for unavoidable negative outcomes; proceed with project or not; monitoring scheme
NON-STRATEGIC
Phase I: Basic alternative means

A. Hydro
B. Wind Power
C. Nuclear
D. Increased efficiency of existing source
(thermal)
E. Try to reduce demand
STRATEGIC
1. Proposed options
The Figure shows that SEA and EIA play complementary roles in the assessment process. Given the
strategic nature of SEA it is an appropriate tool for establishing the most desirable development
option to meet desired goals or objectives. However once this choice is made, the strategic decision
should be subject to an EIA to help design appropriate projects.
Source: Noble 2000
23
If SEA is to yield good results, then it requires rigorous policy analysis and inclusive policy processes.
In addition it needs to be an integral part of the policy-making process. Successful SEA includes:
Examining and assessingrather than simply justifyingthe policy in question.
Identifying and rigorously evaluating the different options.
Applying simplebut strategicassessment methods such as sustainability assessment.
Involving the public and ensuring that the views of the stakeholders are considered.
Effectively communicating with the stakeholders to maximize support for the SEA process and
outcomes.
Guidance 4
Identify countries within the sub-region that have applied SEA to the development of polices,
plans and programmes.
Draw upon the documented experiences of these applications to distil emerging lessons and
good practices, particularly where SEA has been applied to environmental mainstreaming.
Consider developing a policy analysis case study on SEA.
POLICY TOOLS
Policy tools are instruments used to ensure the successful implementation of policy. They are designed
to evoke desired changesincluding in the behaviour of natural resource-users, consumers,
industrialists, and tradersto ensure successful policy implementation.
The choice of tool will vary from context to context. Often, the use of one tool will be insufficient
to induce behaviour change and a combination of tools may be necessary to achieve the desired
outcome. Policy tools can reflect policy-makers world views on development. For example, marketdriven societies may emphasize market-based tools.
The choice of tool depends on the question being asked. Table 2.3 identifies some categories of
tools used in policy analysis and the purposes that they serve. Some well-known categories of
policy tools are discussed below. Within each of these broad categories specific tools are used.
For example process analysis may include, among others, stakeholder analysis and problem tree
analysis.
The choice of tools may be the result of social and political negotiation. Some factors in determining
appropriate governance tools are discussed in Box 2.2.
Table 2.3: Some policy analysis tool categories
24
Tool category
Purpose
Process Analysis
Understanding the dynamics of policy making
Evaluation or impact analysis
Determining the consequences of policy application
Outcome analysis
Assessing the extent to which the expected outcomes have

been achieved and determining the types of unanticipated
outcomes.
Monitoring or implementation
analysis
Determining how the policy is performing in staying the

course towards the expected outcomes
Box 2.2: Selecting effective governance tools

Identifying and selecting appropriate tools for effective and responsive governance systems
can be challenging. The following should inform the selection:
It is important to avoiding the one-size-fits-all approach:

- New laws and policies only contribute to improved governance when appropriate
management systems for implementing them are developed. This may involve creatively
coupling modern resource management regimes with traditional management systems.

- Understanding experience in Africa, and elsewhere, is critical for determining appropriate
governance systems. Lessons from water governance programmes in Asia and SouthEast Asia, for example, indicate that while in some situations centralized management
regimes work best, in others success is best achieved through decentralized management
regimes (Hirsch and others undated). Such lessons deserve careful consideration given
the urgent need for adequate water governance in Africa.
The specifics of the African context need to be taken into account. For example, region-wide
governance needs to taken into account the fact that Africa has over 50 international river
basins, shared by two or more countries (UNEP 2006a)
Understanding the complex interlinkages between governance and environmental change
is essential if governance systems are to contribute to achieving desired outcomes. For
example, many existing land-tenure regimes compel more and more poor people to base
their livelihoods on already fragile ecosystems, consequently exacerbating degradation
and human vulnerability. When the government opts not to address such structural causes
of land degradation and instead blames the victim (in this case the land dependent poor)
then a moral failure can be said to have occurred.
Source: UNEP 2006a; Hirsch and others undated
Incentives
Incentives are behaviour-moulding policy tools, which serve as either carrots, such as subsidies, or
sticks, such as taxes. Incentives are applied to evoke compliance with policies.
Although different types of incentives can produce the same desired outcomes, the distributional
effects of those outcomes can be different. For example, a tax on pollution and a subsidy to reduce
pollution may result in the same final pollution level, but in the first instance (tax) the cost is borne
by the polluter and in the second case (subsidy) by the public sector. This is illustrated using the
hypothetical example in Box 2.3.
Box 2.3: Using incentives to achieve desired outcomes
In the table below the pollution damage from burning coal and the value of energy associated
with it are measured in US dollars. Using a monetary measure helps quantify the impact of
domestic heating with coal on human and environmental health.
If the policy intent is to promote the most socially and environmentally efficient use of coal as
well as achieve the highest social surplus, then policies which encourage the use of the 6kg
package are most beneficial. The benefit achieved is the value of the energy produced less the
pollution damage divided by the number of kilogrammes /package.
When consumers are not environmentally conscious they are likely to opt for the 10 kilogramme
(kg) packages of coal, as it has the lowest financial cost/kilogramme to them. The use of
incentives can help adjust consumer behaviour.
25
Use of coal and Illustrating application of incentives as a policy tool

Quantity
of coal
(kg)
Value of
energy
(US$)
Cost of coal
(US$ per
kg)
Tax to
compensate
for
pollution
damage
(US$/kg of
coal)
Pollution
Damage
(US$)
Social
surplus
(US$)
15
15
10
10
05
30
15
20
10
05
66
11
30
05
06
10
100
10
50
05
05
Source: Adapted from UNDP (2002). Draft Virtual Development Academy (VDA) Training Module on Environment. Energy
and Environment Group, UNDP, New York.
If the government desires to encourage the consumption of the 6 kg package of coal it must set a
kilogramme tax that matches the average damage from pollution. That tax is US$5/kg for 10kg of
coal, US$5/kg for 6 kg, US$10/kg for 2 kg, and US$10 for 1 kg (see column 5). The rationale
is to force consumers to pay for the cost of pollution that their consumption produces. If the
consumers do comply with the use of the 6 kg package, the tax revenue to government is US$30
per consumer.
The same outcome can also be achieved through a subsidy. In this case the government has to
subsidize producers by paying them enough to make it worth their while not to provide the 10 kg
package of coal. This, of course, is only possible if no other costs are incurred by producers in
providing the preferred package. What the producer receives is, therefore, the value of the product.
Inevitably, government has to transfer US$34 to subsidize each producerthat is the difference in
the value of energy between the 10 kg package and the 6 kg oneto motivate the supply of the 6
kg package of coal instead of the 10 kg one.
The distributional effects of the tax and subsidy options are, of course, different:
In the producer subsidy, coal miners gain and the government loses tax revenue.
In the tax case, the government gains revenue but consumers are hurt.
Source: Adapted from UNDP 2002
Direct controls
Direct controls are legally enforceable measures that impose an obligation on individuals and
organizations to undertake certain activities in order to achieve defined policy objectives. Typically,
such measures are provided for in laws, regulations, and standards and include a penalty for
failing to comply. Examples include:
Obligatory target levels, such as those provided for in pollution legislation.
Specified activities, such as the obligation to purify industrial effluent prior to its discharge
into public waters.
26
Empowering and enabling resource users

Policy tools that empower resource users may encourage behaviour that contributes to meeting
environmental and development goals. For example:
When natural resource use options are increased there may be a corresponding increase in
the value attributed to conservation. In these circumstances users may invest more in securing
and protecting natural resources.
More secure property rights may enable the emergence of a market and help promote trade.
This potentially contributes to increased local earnings from natural assets. For example, the
emerging payment for environmental services (PES) market could diversify local opportunities
and increase conservation efforts.
Promoting education, information sharing and communication
This cluster of tools is intended to evoke behaviour change by increasing understanding that
contributes to a change in values.
The underlying assumption is that undesirable behaviour is the result of a lack of information and
understanding. If this assumption is correct then providing information about the consequences
of specific actions may contribute to behaviour change. Education programmes can increase
appreciation forand thus the value attributed tothe environment and natural resources. In
turn this may encourage more environmentally-friendly behaviour. Farmers, for example, may be
encouraged to modify their waste management practices if they know that these practices are likely
to result in contamination of the lake, especially where this contamination is likely to impact on
their own activities such as recreation, fishing and water extraction. Similarly, they may change soil
conservation or pest management practices if extension programmes promote more efficient and
inexpensive alternatives.
Naming-and-shamingthe disclosure of information about activities of groups, companies, or
individuals that create environment riskscan be an effective strategy for inducing behavioural
change. Negative publicity comes with costs, for example damaging public image and reducing
demand for their products or services their products and thus most actors will opt to change their
behaviour rather than face ongoing costs. Naming-and-shaming can include publishing a list or
establishing a website with the names of firms that generate the most pollution.
Improving governance
There is a growing body of evidencefrom local to international levelsthat suggests that poor
governance is often at the root of environmental problems.
The inability of a government to enforce existing laws and policies, for example, may effectively
allow the more powerful to degrade the environment with impunity. In the worse case scenario,
powerful groups with vested interests may deliberately pervert democratic and legislative processes.
For example, they might prevent the institutionalization of the widely accepted principles of
participatory democracy, efficiency, transparency, accountability, and the rule of law into resource
governance and management. This can reduce the ability of governments to respond efficiently
and effectively to problems that affect the poor and the environment. Unless countervailing power
emerges and is applied to counteract such negative vested interests, desired policy outcomes may
be sabotagedfor example through policy capture. In this context, empowerment tools may be
useful in ensuring greater inclusiveness and equity in policy making.
Tools for improving governance include empowerment measures, such as measures for increasing
civil society participation. This can result in better outcomes for local people (Jger and others
2007) as well as more responsive public policy (Box 2.4).
27
Box 2.4: Empowered civil society organizations are good advocates for positive
environmental action
Active civil society groups can help encourage greater government responsiveness to
environmental issues.
Increasingly in Africa, through well-conducted lobbying and advocacy, civil society actors
are compelling governments to become more responsive to environmental concerns. A wellknown example is the advocacy role played by the Green Belt Movement in Kenya in making
the Kenyan Government more responsive to the problems of deforestation. The Green Belt
Movementfounded by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Professor Wangari Maathaihas planned
an important role in advocacy and action, for example creating over 600 community networks
which care for over 6000 tree nurseries (Green Belt Movement 2006).
Creditable environmental informationincluding that provided through integrated environmental
assessmentsupports successful advocacy. For example in the United States of America, Rachel
Carsons seminal publication, the Silent Spring, helped trigger the remarkably sudden rise of the
environmental movement, which resulted in the formation of the USA Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) and the rapid enactment of laws that became the foundation for national efforts
to clean our air and water(Michael 2003).
Source: Green Belt Movement 2006, Michael 2003
Guidance 5
(a) Assess the extent to which civil society engagement in policy-making processes is contributing
to improved environmental governance and hence better management of the natural
assets.
(b) Identify the challenges that face civil society organizations (CSO) in the sub-region in playing
this role.
(c) Use best practice examples to identify opportunities.
(d) Suggest ways of dealing with the challenges.
Guidance 6
(a) Identify the variety of policy tools used in the sub-regions and the attendant consequences
positive and negativefor livelihoods and the management of the natural resources.
(b) Analyse experiences in specific natural resource management areas, such as forests and
freshwater, to discern the extent to which Africas desires for collective self-reliance, good
governance, and sustainable development are being translated into environmental policy
and legal frameworks.
POLICY OUTCOMES
In general a policy outcome refers to the anticipated, long-term, and sustained change that a given
policy is expected to have. However policies may also have unintendedpositive or negative
outcomes.
28
An outcome refers to a change in individual or institutional behaviour or practice, and includes

changes in social, environmental and environmental sectors. It can be distinguished from an impact.
An impact refers to an effect that is experienced as a result of a given practice.
Some examples of intended or desired outcomes are discussed below.
Behaviour changes
Policy may help modify a rangeinstitutional and individualof behaviours including, for example,
changes in production and consumption patterns. Other desired behaviour changes could relate
to reducing risky behaviour such as the use of protective wear by farmers or farm workers when
applying insecticides.
Behaviour changes may be the result of single or multiple policies and actions. For example,
although the adoption of environmentally-friendly technologies, such as soil conservation methods,
may be an outcome that can be ascribed to a specific policy, often it is related to the emergence of
a generally favourable macro-economic policy environment.
Resource reallocation
Resource reallocation entails changes in how natural, financial, and other resources are distributed.
This may include, for example, changes in income distribution patterns as a result of increasing
social equity or the legal reform in the allocation of land or other resources.
Diverting water from low-value to high-value crops with similar demands for water in situations,
especially where communities or countries are experiencing scarcity of irrigation water, is a good
example of a reallocation outcome. Changing the proportion of water allocated to competing end
uses such as agriculture, industry, and ecological services may be required to more effectively
meet social and environmental needs where there is water scarcity. Another example of resource
reallocation is economically motivated land-use change. In some African countries, land has been
reallocated from coffee to banana production or from cotton to sesame production given changing
profitability related to new macro-economic situations (see for example Blake, McKay, and Morrissey
2002).
Resource and capital augmentation
Resource and capital augmentation refers to the expansion of economic opportunities arising
from policy measures. For example when environmental policies intended to reduce pollution also
contribute to improved environmental quality and hence enhance natural capital. Similarly, a policy
supporting increased expenditure in the public-sector extension service may enable public health
workers promote educational measures to improve water-use efficiency and water quality, both of
which also enhance human wellbeing and capacity to be productive in the economy.
Figure 2.1 provides some illustrative examples of potential environmental impacts associated with
certain economic policies.
29
Figure 2.4: Economic policy and potential environmental impacts
-

GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE
Publicly-funded agencies can protect biologically unique areas.
Public infrastructure (roads, dams) may encourage land uses that
degrade fragile areas.
TAXES & SUBSIDIES
Instruments in one sector may impact on practice in another:
U Vi>Li>>i>ìV>>`>`
conversion of natural resources.
U *i>>i>ìviiV>i`Vi>i>`
pollution.
MACRO
MONETARY
Ties credit analogues to subsidies.
i`>}>ìi>ii>i`Viì>`LV>
also discourage conservation investment.
EXCHANGE RATE
Devaluation increases prices of imported inputs (such as pesticides,
}}}ii]iVi>}v>LviV>
V>`Li/i>iviiVi>``Vi`
effect environmental impactsa..
/ , /"
TRADE
/>ii`>ì>`>i>>\
U >i>ivviVì>>LiiVi`Vì
only; and
U >ii>iiii>ìVii
benign products
CAPITAL CONTROLS
When used to prop-up over-valued currency, it has similar effects to
ii>>viV>}i>i
*,

" /,"-
May stimulate or retard environmentally damaging production. This

depends on the nature of resource and products affected.
/8-1 - -
Usually indirect impact via changes in demand, but may alter choices
of inputs and outputs:
U ViiLìviV`V>i
deforestation.
U iiLì>i>ì>>iVii
or may increase negative health effects of agro-chemical run-off
MACRO
Source: Bishop and others 1991
30
Guidance 7
Identify the main policy outcomes pursued in a sub-region for selected natural resources and
the extent to which they have been realized. Where the outcomes have not been realized,
use available policy benchmarks and monitoring indicators, if any, to determine the types of
outcomes and the reasons for these.
POLICY FAILURE
Policy failure occurs when desired policy outcomes are not achieved or when a policy has unintended
negative consequences.
Policy failures occur under a range of circumstances, including when:
A policyincluding economic (regulatory instruments, fiscal measures, exchange rates,
monetary, pricing policies, income policies) and environmental policies distorts the private
cost of environmental resource use, effectively making it rational to misuse or damage this
social heritage (Opschoor, de Savornin Lohman, and Vos 1994). Examples include:

- Policies in non-environmental sectors which take insufficient account of ecological or
environmental considerations.

- Environmental and natural resource policies that inadequately address the social and
ecological repercussions of economic activity within, for example, a forest or a wetland.
Public policies required to correct for market failure either over- or under-correct (Barbier,
Bishop, Aylward, and Burgess 1992).
A moral failure occurs when the obligation holdersuch as the governmentfails to protect those
who become vulnerable to the negative consequences of its policy actions or inactions (See Box
2.2).
Guidance 8
Select specific sub-regional policiessuch as those adopted by the Southern African Development
Community (SADC),the Economic Community of West African states (ECOWAS), or the
Economic Community of Central African states (ECCAS) and examine their performance
to identify and analyse cases of policy failure. Specify the types of resources and population
groups most adversely affected and the nature of lost opportunities, if any.
MARKET FAILURE
Market failure occurs when the marketas an institutionfails to allocate resources in the best
interest of society. From a sustainable development perspective the impact on this generation and
on future generations needs to be considered.
Markets failure may be said to occur when market outcomes do not fully reflect environmental
values. Two forms of market failure are evident:
First, the failure of emerging markets to address the environmental effects of economic
activities.
Second, the failure of the existing markets to operate efficiently. This may have internal and
external dimensions. When the failure is linked to the nature of the goods exchanged, the
structure of supply, the dynamics of the market and lack of information, it is described as
internal market failure. When failure is linked to externalities, it is described as external
market failure.
31
Several factors may contribute to market failure; these include open-access resource exploitation,
public environment goods, externalities, incomplete information, poorly developed markets, and
imperfect competition. (Barbier and others 1992).
The concept of market failure can be used either as a normative or as a diagnostic tool. As a
normative tool it provides explanation of why the need for government intervention arises. When
applied as a diagnostic tool, it is used to determine the precise scope and nature of the proposed
intervention. A cautious approach to using it should be adopted as market failure diagnostics can
lead to generalizations that are not necessarily supported by facts (Zerbe and McCurdy 1999). In
applying it as diagnostic tool, there must be clear identification of the type of the problem giving
rise to the market failure and of potential non-market failures, such as bureaucratic malfunctions that
are likely to occur if public corrective measures are adopted (Zerbe and McCurdy 2000).
Guidance 9
Assess how market liberalization policies and implementation systems are performing, focusing
on their impacts on environmental goods-and-services as well as on human well-being.
Consider comparing the success of different approaches through case studies as this can:
Yield valuable lessons on the merits and challenges of market liberalization for natural resources
management (see for example Abaza. and Jha 2002).
Help determine when and where policy intervention to achieve environmental and development
objectives are necessary.
ADMINISTRATIVE FAILURE
Administrative failure occurs when the organizational and institutional structure of government
contribute or lead to the inadequate or poor implementation of policy.
The ability of public officials to implement policy may be affected by diverse factors at multiple
levels of government. These factors include the availability of funds, human resources, skills in
particular areas, and appropriate knowledge and information. Institutional factorsincluding how
government officials relate to each other and with the publicalso impact on delivery. Other
institutional factors resulting in administrative failure include:
Interlinked and dynamic approaches are difficult to implement due to an overly rigid
organization structure. Examples include entrenched sectorial division of responsibility and
poor integration between agencies and departments.
Policy objectives can not be realized due to insufficient instruments or mandates.
Policy implementation is hampered by a lack of instruments or powers.
Diverse environmental strategies and plans are poorly harmonized.
Guidance 10
Assess the performance of sub-regional organizations such as the East African Community
(EAC), SADC, ECCAS and ECOWAS in promoting sustainable development:
(a) Establish the extent to which administrative failures have impaired the implementation of subregional environmental policies, especially the prospects for seizing emerging opportunities
to use natural assets to promote trade and development.
(b) Discern the extent to which structural and managerial arrangements have helped or impaired
the accomplishment of the sustainable development vision.
32
(c) Identify lessons to support these organizations provide more effective support to AMCEN in
promoting development that is sustainable.
POLICY CAPTURE
Policy capture occurs when intended policy outcomes are compromised by dominant interests
groups. Power, governance and institutional systems, and rights are all important factors shaping
the ability of groups to undermine delivery of desired policy outcomes. Poverty, gender, education,
access to financial and other resources, and location shape the power that individuals and groups
have.
Policy capture can take at least three forms:
First, the resources intended for particular groups or regions may be intercepted and appropriated
by powerful or other well-placed actors (Johnson and Start 2001).
Second, policies and rights may be structured in ways that contradict the interests of the environment,
the poor, and the most vulnerable in society (Johnson and Start 2001).
Third, powerful external interests that are likely to lose from the implementation of the policy can
endeavour to make the policy ineffectual.
Policy capture often results in an entrenchment of existing relations and rights. Box 2.5 provides an
example of policy capture. The risk of a policy capture should be considered at policy design phase
as well as in designing the policy implementation strategy and action plan.
Successful policy requires successful implementation, but this can be undermined by policy capture.
Understanding the potential for policy capture and proposing strategic actions to avert capture can
make an effect whether or not a policy delivers.
Box 2.5: Policy Capture subverting forest tenure reforms
Guidance 11
Focus on specific national or sub-regional policies that make policy capture possible.
Identify circumstances where deliberate policy capture has occurred.
Analyse the processes, capture tactics and consequences for livelihoods and environmental
sustainability
33
VULNERABILITY
Vulnerability may be defined as the degree to which a system, subsystem, or system component
such as the human-environment system, a community, or familyis likely to experience harm due to
exposure to hazards, either a perturbation or stress (Turner and others 2003).
Vulnerability is an intrinsic characteristic of a system that is always present, including during times
between hazardous events.
Determining vulnerability means asking what would happen if certain event(s) impacted particular
systems or subsystems at risk (e.g. a community) (Thywissen 2006). The extent of vulnerability is
revealed during exposure to a hazard. The extent of vulnerability is combination of three factors
((Jger and others 2007; Taylor and others 2003; Figure 2.5):
1. Exposure to hazards by a system at risk.
2. Sensitivity of the system to impacts from exposure.
3. Resilience including coping and adaptive capacity of the affected system.
Figure 2.5: Vulnerability is a product of exposure, sensitivity and resilience
Exposure
Sensitivity
Components
Human Conditions
e.g. individuals, households

classes, firms, states,
flora/fauna ecosystems
social/human capital & endowments

(e.g. population, entitlements, institutions,
economic structures)
Characteristics
e.g. frequency, magnitude,
duration
Resilience
Coping response
Impact/response
(e.g. extent
programmes, policy,
autonomous options)
(e.g. loss of life, economic

production, soil, ecosystem
services)
Environmental Conditions
natural capital/biophysical endowments
(e.g. soils, water, climate, minerals, ecosystem
structure & function)
Adjustment &
adaptation/response
(e.g. new programmes, policy, &
autonomous options)
The figure shows the details of the exposure, sensitivity, and resilience components of the vulnerability
framework.
Source: Taylor and others 2003
The extent of exposure is affected by the nature of the hazard, its magnitude, and population
patterns (Figure 2.5). Hazards include events such as drought, floods, hurricanes as well as changes
in the severity and magnitude of such events. Socio-economic factors such as conflict, extreme price
fluctuations, and economic collapse may also place stress on a given system (Jger and others
2007). The nature and extent of exposure is affected not only by the magnitude of the event but
also by the population patterns.
34
The sensitivity of the system to impacts from exposure is influenced by many factors including
proximity, poverty, and environmental conditions. Entitlements, diversity in coping capacity, and
resilience are important factors to determine the systems degree of sensitivity to perturbations or
stressors (Taylor and others 2003, Figure 2.5). Entitlements refer to legal and customary rights to
exercise command resources such as food and other necessities of life.
Resilience refers to the ability of a system or subsystem to bounce back to a reference state after
disturbance and its capacity to maintain certain structures and functions despite disturbance. This
depends on factors such as education, insurance, access to resources and the ability or inability to
cope or adapt (Jger and others 2007).
Copying capacity is the degree to which adjustments in practices, processes or structures can
moderate or offset the potential for damage or take advantage of opportunities (UNEP 2007c).
Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of a system, region, or community to adapt to the effects or
impacts of a particular set of changes (UNEP 2007c).
If policy is to be forward-lookingand not only reactivethen it is important to identify who is at
risk and why. Vulnerability analysis is a valuable tool to show the unequal distribution of risks for
specific groups; among the most vulnerable are poor people, women, children, refugees and other
displaced peoples (Jger and others 2007).
Vulnerability analysis must be grounded in understanding of the stress or hazard, and therefore
necessarily relies on scientific analysis of environmental states-and-trends as well as on analysis
of the social context including economic, technology, health, conflict, and other circumstances.
Vulnerability analysis also needs to take account of the complex, dynamic, and multi-dimensional
nature of the overall context in which vulnerability is experienced. At any given point in time
a given system (such as a community) is subject to more than one stress. Additionally, factors
shaping vulnerability differ across spatial and temporal frames and include local realities, social
and economic trends, shocks, and seasonal changes.
In researching and analysing human vulnerability to economic and social change an eight-step
methodology can be used (Polsky and others 2003). Figure 2.6 illustrates this methodology.
Figure 2.6: Eight-step methodology for vulnerability analysis
Select people
and places
carefully
Hypothesize
who is
vulnerable to
what
Find indicaators
for the
components of
vulnerability
Project future
vulnerability
U ViV>i
U iiV>iì
U ìvii
U ìvì
U
U
U
U
U ii`V>
U i`V>
U >`>iV>>V
`V>
U ViVi>
U ì
Get to know
places over
time
Develop a
causal model of
vulnerability
Weight and
combine the
indicators
Communicate
vulnerability
creatively
ìVLiv>V
ìVLi>>
i>i>`>>
v>iì
U VLi}
U iiii
U >`>ii
iii>i
V>Vii>Vi
iìvi`
iiii>L>i>
steps prior to modeling
U
U
U
U
U Li}>L
Vi>
U >iì
U iii`>
steps tha involve modeling
This figure shows details of the exposure, sensitivity, and resilience components of the vulnerbility
framework.These eight analytical steps should be performed sequentially. However in practice,
research and assessment will often be characterized by overlaps and iterations. The spiral above
the steps depicts fluidity in and unpredictable nature of the research and assessment process.
Source: Polsky and others 2003
35
Because the aspects of vulnerability are affected by policies, vulnerability can also be considered as
an unintended policy outcome. The enhancement of adaptive capacity represents a practical means
of coping with changes and uncertainties, and therefore in reducing vulnerabilities and promoting
sustainable development (UNEP 2007c). For example, a well-implemented disaster prevention and
management policy can contribute to increasing coping capacity and overall resilience. At the subregional level, the impact of institutional innovations such as the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC)
on vulnerability and enhanced adaptive capacity can be evaluated.
Given the vulnerability of local populations to environmental hazards such as floods, cyclones
and drought vulnerability analysis can play an important role in understanding the impacts of
environmental change, as well as developing meaningful responses (See, for example, UNEP
2004). Hazards may be the result of natural phenomenon as a result of natural or human factors,
for example climate change and the style of development management adopted (See Box 2.6).
Box 2.6
Climate change and Vulnerability in Africa:
Effective response; Adaptation and mitigation
Guidance 12
Assess the impact of the policy environment on vulnerability, in particular the extent to which
policies minimize or exacerbate vulnerability.
Use specific cases to highlight circumstance where:
(a) The policy void contributed to increased vulnerability and/or foreclosed capacity development
for effective response.
(b) Good policies enabled the strengthening of coping and adaptive capacity, and resilience.
36
CHAPTER
IDENTIFYING AND REVIEWING POLICY ISSUES
People, opportunities, or the environment? Lake Malawishared by Malawi, Mozambique, and

Tanzaniais home to over 600 fish species and supports many livelihoods, from fisheries to tourism.
A fisher prepares his nets.
Source: Vidar Kristiansen
In this Chapter, five broad guides to assess policy are provided:

The concept of sustainability is explored and methods for assessing the sustainability of
policy and programmes are discussed.
The links between achieving the MDG targets, the objectives of NEPAD-EAP, and
environmental sustainability are demonstrated.
The interaction between policies at different spatial levels and their impact on opportunities
is identified.
Tools for making strategic choices are discussed.
The centrality of human capacity in policy implementation is considered.
UNDERSTAND THE SUSTAINABILITYPOLICY MAKING LINKS

The concept of sustainability is closely related to that of sustainable development (Chapter 2).
Sustainablity refers to a characteristic or state, in which the needs of the present and local population
can be met without compromising the ability of future generations or populations in other locations
to meet their needs (UNEP 2007c). Sustainability is not a fixed endpoint that can be defined, but
a characteristic of dynamic systems that maintain themselves over time (Esty, Levy, Srebotjnjak, and
de Sherbinin 2005).
Determining whether existing paths of development are sustainable is important for evaluating policies
and for making choices for the future, including setting priorities and undertaking policy revision.
Approaches to sustainability vary across regions and across countries, but are critically important
as they inform and shape decision making and thus environmental and human opportunities.
37
Two models of sustainabilityweak sustainability and strong sustainabilityare widely used

to illustrate when policy and practice are sustainable (Figure 3.1a and b). Both these models
recognize that relationships between society, environment, and economy are important in assessing
sustainability, but perspectives on what the balance between these aspects should be differs.
The most common graphic depiction of the sustainable development concept depicts weak
sustainability (Figure 3a). Its point of intersectionalso known as triple bottom line represents the
rare situation of harmonious relationships among the three dimensions of sustainable development.
This model treats economics, society, and environment as three distinct, separate, and often
competing areas. In contrast, strong sustainability approaches treat these elements as nested in
each other: economy is just one activity of human society and the sustainability of society is based
on a well-functioning environment (Figure 3.1a).
These different approaches to sustainability have important implications for decision making and
in particular whether an integrated approach to development is pursued or if decision making is
based on a hierarchy of priorities (Parliamentary Commission for the Environment 2002)
Figure 3.1: Sustainability
Economy
Environment
Society
a) Weak sustainability: The economy, society, and the environment are competing sectors and
activities in one sector require tradeoffs with the overlapping sectors. The point of intersection
represents harmonious interaction between the three dimensions of sustainable development.
Economy
Environment
Society
b) Strong sustainability. This model recognizes that the economy only exists in the context of a
society, and that there are other important aspects of society that do not involve economic activity.
And, both society and the economy are totally constrained by the Earths natural systems. The
economy may expand or contract, and societys expectations and values may change over time,
but to function in a sustainable human activities must not exceed the capacity of the biosphere.
38
Source: Parliamentary Commission for the Environment 2002
In the weak sustainability model, where two dimensions interface, some trade-offs occur (Parliamentary
Commission for the Environment 2002):
The environment-economy interface is indicative of the environments provision of natural
resources, ecosystem services, and other benefits to the economy. It also represents the
pressure that economic activities exert on habitats and natural resources, which may result
in adverse effects on environmental quality and ecosystem services, or on access to and
availability of those resources.
The environment-society interface is indicative of the environments provision of life-supporting
resources and ecosystem and other amenities that are valued by people. It also represents
societys consumption of the products and services provided by environmental resources, and
the generation of wastes that are disposed in the environment.
The economy-society interface is indicative of how economic conditions determine employment
opportunities, living standards, and income distribution. It, among other things, reflects
how social conditions influence the quantity and quality of the labour force including skills,
knowledge and creativity, and the choices and opportunities available to individuals and
groups.
Weak sustainability is underpinned by the assumption that environmental and social problems can
be solved if the economy is sound. Outcomes of this approach are shaped by a focus on aggregate
capital rather than the maintenance of capital in each sector. Maintaining natural capital may not
be seen as a priority:
.although natural capital is being depleted, it is being replaced with even more valuable
human-made capital and the remaining natural capital is increasing over time in terms of its
ability to maintain or enhance human welfare (Barbier, Burgess and Folke 1994).
Development policies and strategies inspired by this understanding of sustainability follow the
economic logic of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, which, simply put, proposes that the initial
environmental costs of economic growth is reversed later by environmental investments that are
enabled by the vibrancy of the economy and greater environmental concern. The validity of this
perspective is increasingly contested (see, for example, Schubert and Dietz 2001, Salem and
Umana 2003). Figure 3.2 provides one interpretation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve.
Figure 3.2 Environmental Kuznet Curves
Turning Point Income
Environmental
Improvement
Deterioration
Environmental
Decay
Per Capita Income

At low levels of per capita incomesuch as found in non-industrialized and agrarian economies
environmental impacts are low (at least for those pollutants associated with industrial activity).
As development and industrialization progress, environmental damage increases due to greater
use of natural resources, more emission of pollutants, the operation of less efficient and relatively
dirty technologies. Priority is given to increasing material output, and there is disregard for the
environmental consequences of growth. As economic growth advances life human expectancies
increase and environmental quality (cleaner water, improved air quality, and sustained habitats)
become more valuable as people make choices about how to spend their incomes. In the postindustrial stage, cleaner technologies and a shift to information and service-based activities combine
with a growing ability and willingness to enhance environmental quality.
Source: Yandle, Bhattarai, and Vijayaraghavan
39
A consequence of this approach is that economy objectives usually override social objectives in
policy making. Environmental and gender considerations are often marginalized in development
policy and planning that is informed by such perspectives of sustainability. At best, proposed
growth-based poverty reduction strategies and programmes are subjected to Environmental Impact
Assessment (EIA) to appease environmental and gender interest groups or other minority groups.
In contrast, strong sustainability is characterised by the interdependence of the economy, society
and environment (Figure 3.1b). This model illustrates the point that economic activities are driven by
societal needs whose satisfaction is dependent on the biophysical system. This form of sustainability
treats the economy as one part of human society.
A development strategy inspired by a strong sustainability ethos recognizes that natural systems
impose constraints on human and economic activities intended to meet livelihood needs. Such an
imposition is necessary because (Barbier and others 1994):
Some minimum level of biodiversity is essential for ecosystem functioning, maintaining
resilience, and preserving the economic opportunities available to future generations.
Not all forms of natural capital can be substituted by economic assets.
There is uncertainty about threshold effects.
Not all damage may be reversible.
The potential scale of social costs associated with loss of certain environmental assets is not
known.
Additionally, a strong sustainability approach recognises that activities in one sector impact on
activities in other sectors (Salem, Chenje, and Mohamed-Katerere 2006). Consequently, achieving
sustainable development requires a strategic approach, which is long-term in perspective and
that integrates environment in to decision making, through among other measures adopting an
interlinkages approach (OECD and UNDP 2002, Salem and others 2006).
Assessing Sustainability in AEO
Assessing sustainability requires integrated or interlinked sets of indicators, or aggregations of
indicators into indices, that can represent the complexity of sustainability (OECD and UNDP
2002).
Simple sustainability tests can be conducted to determine where countriesjudged by the quality of
their policiesare located on the weak-strong sustainability continuum. Matrix 1 offers one method
for assessing sustainability.
Matrix 3.1: Sustainability test of policy, plan or programme
ECONOMIC CRITERIA
A
Policy
Policy
Policy
Policy
Policy
Policy
SOCIAL CRITERIA
D
ENVIRONMENTAL
CRITERIA
G
H
I
1
2
3
4
5
6
Source: Adapted from National Development Planning Authority/Environmental Protection Agency (2004) Handbook
Development Plan Sustainability Appraisal. Accra; NPDC/EPA
40
Within each sub-region, sets of criteria and indicators for the three dimensions of sustainability need
to be developed. Criteria define essential elements against which sustainability is assessed and
indicators provide a measure to monitor status and changes (Simula 2003). Possible criteria could
include: maintaining ecosystem integrity, reducing poverty, enhancing quality of life, and improving
social and cultural assets.
The rating for each criterion under the three dimensions can be on a scale from 05, where:
0 stands for irrelevant
1 stands for works strongly against the aim of sustainability
2 stands for works against the aim of sustainability
3 stands for being neutral
4 stands for supports the aim of sustainability
5 stands for strongly supports the aim of sustainability.
A method for the relative weighting of criteria should be agreed. Simple averages can be used to
provide an impression of how the country or sub-region is performing in terms of sustainability. See
for example the use of simple averages for assessing the extent to which Poverty Reduction Strategy
Papers (PRSPs) integrate environment (Boj and Reddy 2002).
If and when the data situation and the analytical capacity warrant, more rigorous assessment of
sustainability based on a sustainability index can be undertaken. An example of such an index is
the Environmental Sustainability Index (Box 3.1). Models for quantifying trade-offs exist and can
be usefully applied if the expertise and facilities exist in the country or the sub-region (See, for
example, Antle and others 1993).
Box 3.1: The Environmental Sustainability Index
The Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) emphasizes a broad, policy-oriented approach to
measuring sustainability. It benchmarks the ability of nations to protect the environment over
several decades.
The ESI measures sustainability by integrating 76 data setstracking natural resource
endowments, past and present pollution levels, environmental management efforts, and
a societys capacity to improve its environmental performanceinto 21 equally-weighted
indicators of environmental sustainability. These indicators permit comparison across the
following five fundamental components of sustainability:
Environmental Systems;
Environmental Stresses;
Human Vulnerability to Environmental Stresses;
Societal Capacity to Respond to Environmental Challenges; and
Global Stewardship.
The ESI finds that although economical success contributes to the potential for environmental
success it does not guarantee it. The ESI analysis suggests that developing and developed
countries face distinct environmental challenges. Developed countries face challenges related
to pollution, while developing countries face challenges related to poverty and low levels of
capacity. Good governanceincluding the rigour of regulation and the extent of international
policy cooperationcorrelates strongly with environmental success.
41
Higher ESI scores suggest better environmental stewardship

Source: Esty and others 2005
Guidance 13
Establish the forms of sustainability that underpin the pursuit of sustainable development in a
country or sub-region.
Determine the effectiveness of existing inter-sectorial collaboration especially mechanisms
designed to promote coherence between sector policies. Highlight, if possible, the manner in
which trade-offs between economic, social and environmental considerations have been dealt
with these.
UNDERSTAND THE MDGNEPAD ENVIRONMENT ACTION PLAN LINKS

For the AEO to effectively assess existing policy and to provide relevant information for developing
more effective policy, the assessment needs to be based on an understanding of Africas priorities
and goals. Foremost among these goals are the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and those
of the New Partnership for Africas Development (NEPAD) Environment Initiative, as capture in its
Environment Action Plan (NEPAD-EAP).
The World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) focused global attentionand commitment
on strengthening opportunities for achieving the MDGs. The Johannesburg Plan of Implementation
(JPOI) adopted at WSSD calls on governments to exercise social and environmental responsibility
in promoting productive activities aimed at economic growth and poverty reduction. Also at the
WSSD, the United Nations identified five priority areasWater, Energy, Health, Agricultural and
Biodiversity (WEHAB)in which progress is possible with the resources and technologies available
today (UN 2002). There is also a high degree of complementarity between these priority areas and
the programme areas of the NEPAD-EAP.
42
Recognizing the importance of the MDGs for Africa, NEPAD decided that its partnerships should be
linked to the MDGs and other development goals and targets (NEPAD 2001). Table 6 illustrates some
of the linkages between the NEPAD-EAP programme areas and the MDGs, focusing specifically on
the MDG 7 targets. It also shows how these are related to the AEO themes.
Figure 3.3: AEO Themes-NEPAD Environment Action Plan- MDG 7 link

H
LAND
U
M
Combating land
degradation, drought
and desertification
ATMOSPHERE
Combating climate
change in Africa
By 2020 to have
achieved a
significant
improvement in
the lives of at
least 100 million
slum dwellers
programmes and
reverse the loss
COASTAL & MARINE ENVIRONMENTS
M
E
BIODIVERSITY
T
S
policies and
Prevention, control and
management of invasive
alien species
into country
FRESHWATER
development
Conserving Africas
wetlands
FORESTS & WOODLANDS
principles of
sustainable
ENERGY
S
Integrate the
Conservation, sustainable
use and management of
freshwater, coastal and
marine resources
Cross-border
collaboration and natural
resource management
of environmental
Halve by 2025
the proportion of
people without
sustainable
access to safe
drinking water
resources
Source:
The poverty-environment nexus

The relationship between poverty and environment is complex, non-linear, and evident at multiple
scales. There is a now an extensive body of literature that addresses the povertyenvironment nexus
(see for example DfID and others 2002, publications from the multi-partner Poverty Environment
Network (PEN), and UNEP-UNDP Poverty Environment Initiative).
Adopting and implementing policies and programmes that acknowledge these complex interlinkages
between poverty and the environment is an effective way to enhance opportunities for using
available resources more effectively so that they contribute to improving human well-being and
achieving development that is sustainable (Salem and others 2006). Table 3.1 identifies some such
linkages between the environment and the MDGs.
43
Table 3.1: Some environment-MDG links

MDG
1. Eradicate extreme poverty
and hunger
2. Achieve universal primary
education
3. Promote gender equality
and empower women
4. Reduce child mortality
5. Improve maternal health
6. Combat major diseases
7. Ensure environmental
sustainability
Examples of Links to the Environment

Livelihood strategies and food security of the poor often
depend directly on healthy ecosystems and the diversity of
goods and ecological services they provide.
Time spent collecting water and fuelwood by children,
especially girls, can reduce time at school.
Poor women are especially exposed to indoor air pollution
and the burden of collecting water and fuelwood, and have
unequal access to land and other natural resources.
Water-related diseases such as diarrhoea and cholera kill an
estimated 3 million people a year in developing countries,
the majority of which are children under the age of five.
Indoor air pollution and carrying heavy loads of water and
fuelwood adversely affect maternal health.
Up to one-fifth of the total burden of diseases in developing
may be associated with environmental risk factorsand
preventive environmental health measures are as important,
and at times, more cost-effective that health treatments.
Current trends in environmental degradation must be
reversed to sustain the health and productivity of the worlds
ecosystem
Source: DfID and others 2002
Those linkages can be further elaborated on by identifying nation and sub-regional policy issues
and strategic actions to enhance both environmental and human health. For example, because
water is becoming increasingly scarce, water security is fundamental to achieving the MDGs and
attaining the water-related goals of the NEPAD Environment initiative. There are economic, social,
and ecological challenges associated with water management. A triad of challenges need to be
addressed:
Maximize the social and economic benefits from available water resources while ensuring
that basic human needs are met and the environment is protected.
Ensure equity in access to safe water while reducing the vulnerability of poor people to health
hazards associated with water pollution.
Ensure the sustainable use and the protection of the natural resource basein terms of
quantity and quality so that it can meet the needs of future generations.
Table considers the links between the MDGs and water on the one hand and between energy and
the MDGs, on the other. It identifies how improved energy and water resources can contribute to
the achievement of each of the MDGs.
44
Table 3.2: Links between the MDGs and water and energy
Access to water and

sanitation
Goal
Energy
Poor water resource management,

unsafe drinking water, and poor
sanitation are key factors in food
insecurity, poor growth, disease,
malnutrition and poverty.
Eradicate
extreme
poverty and
hunger
Energy inputs such as electricity

and fuels are essential to
generate jobs, industrial activities,
transportation, commerce, microenterprises and agriculture outputs.
Irrigated agriculture provides a large

proportion of the worlds food and
irrigation comprises over 70% of
overall water use.
Teachers are unwilling to live in areas
without adequate water and sanitation.
Diarrhoeal diseases and parasites
reduce attendance and attention at
school.
Most staple foods must be

processed, conserved, and cooked,
thus requiring heat from various
fuels.
Achieve
universal
primary
education
Increasing womens role in decision

making to match their responsibilities
and a more equitable division of
labour are known to help improve
water supply, sanitation and hygiene.
After dusk study requires lighting.

Many children, especially girls, do
not attend primary schools in order
to carry wood for domestic use.
Girls often stay away from school

unless there are females-only toilets.
Time spent collecting water takes
precedence over school attendance
and this burden falls largely on girls.
Women bear the brunt of poor health
and the security risks from lack of
private sanitation or washing facilities,
and the burden of carrying water.
To attract teachers to rural areas

electricity is needed for homes and
schools.
Promote
gender
equality and
empower
women
Diarrhoea causes 2 million deaths/

year mostly among children
Reduce child
mortality
A healthy pregnancy and hygienic

labour practices reduce the risk of
maternal illness. Hand washing is
simple, yet effective.
Improve
maternal
health
Lack of access to modern fuels

and electricity contributes to
gender inequality. Women are
responsible for most household
cooking and water-boiling
activities. This takes time away
from other productive activities as
well as from educational and social
participation.
Access to modern fuels eases
womens domestic burden and
allows them to pursue educational,
economic and other opportunities.
Diseases caused by unboiled water,
and respiratory illness caused by
the effects of indoor air pollution
from traditional fuels and stoves,
directly contribute to infant and
child disease and mortality.
Women are disproportionately
affected by indoor air pollution and
water- and food-borne illnesses.
Lack of electricity in health clinics,
illumination for night-time deliveries,
and the daily drudgery and
physical burden of fuel collection
and transport all contribute to
poor maternal health conditions,
especially in rural areas.
45
Of the global burden of disease,

23% is a result of poor environmental
health, 75% of which is attributable to
diarrhoea.
Combat HIV/
AIDS, malaria
and other
diseases
HIV treatment is more effective where

clean water and food are available.
HIV-infected mothers require clean
water to make formula milk.
Water management reduces
opportunities for malaria mosquito
breeding sites. Clean water and
hygiene are important in reducing a
range of parasites including trachoma
and guinea worm.
Good water resource management is
a key factor in ensuring environmental
sustainability. But, water resources are
under stress.
Public, private and civil society

partnerships can help deliver water
and sanitation to the poor.
Electricity for communication such

as radio and television can spread
important public health information
to combat deadly diseases.
Health care facilities, doctors
and nurses, all require electricity
and the services that it provides
(illumination, refrigeration,
sterilization, etc) to deliver effective
health services.
Ensure
environmental
sustainability
Develop
a global
partnership for
development
Energy production, distribution and

consumption has many adverse
effects on the local, regional and
global environment including
indoor, local and regional air
pollution, local particulates, land
degradation, acidification of land
and water, and climate change.
Cleaner energy systems are needed
to address all of these effects and
to contribute to environmental
sustainability.
The World Summit for Sustainable
Development called for partnerships
between public entities,
development agencies, civil society
and the private sector to support
sustainable development, including
the delivery of affordable, reliable
and environmentally sustainable
energy services.
Source: DfID 2004, UN-Energy 2005
Policy actions that benefit poor people and the environment can help meet the goals of the MDGs
and the NEPAD Environment Initiative. Table 3.3 identifies some strategic actions that can help meet
environment and development goals. This, and other similar analyses, can be used in the assessment process to identify policy issues to be considered at the national and sub-regional level.
46
Table 3.3: Strategic Actions to benefit the environment and the poor
Improve Governance
Build the assets

of poor people
Improve the
quality of
growth
Integrate povertyenvironment issues into

national development
frameworks
Strengthen decentralization
for environmental
management
Strengthen resource
rights
Integrate povertyenvironment issues

into economic
policy reforms
Increase the use
of environmental
valuation
Empower civil society,

in particular poor and
marginalized groups
Address gender
dimensions of povertyenvironment issues
Enhance capacity
to manage the
environment
Expand access to
environmentally
sound and locally
appropriate
technology
Reduce
environmental
vulnerability
Encourage
appropriate private
sector involvement
Implement pro-poor
environmental fiscal
reforms
Strengthen anti-corruption
efforts to protect the
environment and poor
people
Reform
international
and industrial
country policies
Improve
international and
industrial country
trade policies
Make foreign direct
investments more
pro-poor and proenvironment
Improve Multilateral
Environmental
Agreements-poverty
reduction links
Encourage
sustainable
consumption and
production
Improve
effectiveness of
development
cooperation and
debt relief
Reduce environmentrelated conflicts

Improve povertyenvironment monitoring
and assessment
Source: Based on DfID and others 2002
Guidance 14
Assess in the light of environment-MDG link the extent to which:
(a) Knowledge and understanding of the poverty-environment linkages has informed policies
and strategies on income and food security, sustainable energy, and other sustainable
development issues in a sub-region.
(b) Knowledge and understanding of the gender-environmental linkages has influenced policies
on sustainable energy and water development in a sub-region.
(c) Knowledge and understanding of environment-health linkages has influenced interventions
related to irrigated agriculture and the reclamation of wetlands.
47
Guidance 14a
Assess the extent to which the policies in the sub-region contribute to meeting the MDG
targets.
Options include:
(a) Assessing the contribution of energy policies to:
enhanced economic empowerment, especially of women, and helped to reduce the
dependence on fuelwood as the major sources of energy for the poor; and
influenced the accessibility of energy by the poor
(b) Assessing the performance of programmes on the use of shared water resources, especially
the conflict resolution practices. Provide highlights of emerging water governance innovations
in dealing with such conflicts.
(c) Establishing and assessing
The manner in which existing water policies have encouraged effective water
management, giving particular attention to how the application of user-fees, in the
wake of liberalization, has influenced the efficiency of water-use and accessibility of
clean water and sanitation to the poor both rural and urban.
How the decentralization policy has influenced the delivery of water services to the
poor and the expansion of piped water in rural areas.
The extent to which basing water governance on integrated river basin management
has impacted on both water management and the achievement of set development
outcomes
UNDERSTAND THE HIERARCHICAL LINKAGES OF POLICIES

Policies exist at multiple scalesfrom global to local levels. And, at all these levels, policies
shape environmental opportunities for improving livelihoods. While national policy and legislative
frameworks prescribe the ambit of livelihoods, regional and global policies influence national and
local opportunities.
Policies at one level may require activities, including the creation of new policy, at lower levels.
For example, the effective implementation of multi-lateral environmental agreements (MEAs) and
other agreements may require that they be translated into national policies and laws. Global trade
policies impact on the benefits that accrue to local producers from trade.
Policies are not always compatible. There can be conflicts between policies from different sectors
or within the same sector. Harmonizing legal approaches and developing policy coherenceat
different levels and across levelsis critical to achieving effective management (Mohamed-Katerere
2003). Conflicts between, as well as the incompatibility of, policies may serve as pressures on the
environment. Therefore it is important that the assessment addresses the complexities of the policy
web.
48
Guidance 15
Examinetaking into account the nested nature of national, regional and global policies
Africas prospects for seizing market opportunities and instituting policy actions that yield
beneficial outcomes for the environment and livelihoods.
Focus on the three United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED)
conventionson biodiversity, climate change, and desertificationand establish:
(a) the extent to which they have been translated into sub-regional and national polices and
laws; and
(b) some of the deficiencies or gaps that should be filled if African countries are to effectively
implement the UNCED conventions and seize emerging opportunities to use environmental
assets for trade and development.
MAKE STRATEGIC CHOICES

The AEO assessment seeks to identify policy actions that are needed to reduce the pressures on the
environment and sustainably maximize the potential of available resources. Making effective and
strategic choices depends on sound information.
Strategic Environment Assessment (SEA) is one tool that can be used to make strategic choices
(Chapter 2). One of the strengths of SEA is that it can assist in the identification of hidden impacts of
policies, plans and programmes. It can also be used to assess the compatibility of different policies
that impact on the environment and livelihoods. Ghana and Tanzania are among the lead countries
in Africa applying SEA to the greening of poverty reduction strategies (Box 3.3).
Box 3.3: Using SEA for development planning
In Ghana, the National Planning Development Commission has successfully used the SEA
framework to:
Assess the extent to which environment has been incorporated in the analysis of policies
contained in the Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy.
Examine the environmental opportunities and risks of different policies.
Identify and strengthen priority policy actions that benefit poor people and the
environment.
Increase understanding of the spatial dimensions of polices at international, national,
regional and district levels.
Analyse the effectiveness of policiesfocusing on the ease of implementation, time scale,
and costsand the extent to which they have benefited the environment and poor people.
Source: National Planning Development Commission /Environment Protection Agency 2004
Establishing whether policies are compatible is an essential step in making policy recommendations.
Matrices can be effectively used in the AEO assessment process to evaluate policy compatibility as
well as the environmental opportunities and risks presented by various policies. Additionally they
can be used to identify policy areas that require adjustment.
Matrix 3.2 can be used to gauge the extent of compatibility or conflict between policies that interact
with each other. It can be used to review the interactions between policies that have potential
impacts on livelihoods and the environment. It may identify and elaborate on instances where:
Two policies are mutually supportive of each other (+)
Two policies have the potential for conflict with each other (-)
No significant interaction, positive or negative exists (0)
49
Matrix 3.2: Assessing policy compatibility

Policy 1
Policy
Policy
Policy
Policy
Policy
Policy
Policy 2
Policy 3
Policy 4
Policy 5
Policy 6
1
2
3
4
5
6
Source: Adapted from National Development Planning Authority/Environmental Protection Agency (2004) Handbook
Development Plan Sustainability Appraisal. Accra: NPDC/EPA
Matrix 3 can be used to review environmental opportunities and risks associated with various
policies. In using this Matrix, environmental stakeholders in Ghanaacting in the interest of
precaution and pragmatismdecided to adopt the highest opportunity or risk score rather than the
average for each policy theme.
Matrix 3.3: Assessment of policies for risks and environmental opportunities
Criterion 3
Criterion 2
Criterion 1
Policy
area
Policy
theme
Criterion 3
Criterion 2
Criterion 1
Policy
area
Policy
theme
Criterion 3
Criterion 2
Criterion 1
Policy
area
Policy
theme
Criterion 3
Criterion 2
Criterion 1
Policy
area
Policy
theme
Criterion 3
Criterion 2
Policy
Area
Policy
theme
Criterion 1
POLICY
Opportunity
Risk
POLICY 1
Summary
score for
opportunity
Summary
score for
risks
New policy or
policy reform
Opportunity
Risk
POLICY 2
Summary
score for
opportunity
Summary
score for
risks
New policy or
policy reform
Source: Adapted from National Development Planning Commission (2004) SEA of the GPRS, Vol. 3: Accra; National
Development Planning Commission and the Environment Protection Agency
50
For each policy a set of criteria specifying the nature of the opportunities and risks should be
identified. A rating scale from 0-3 can be used to evaluate the level of risk and opportunity, with:
0 reflecting no opportunity or no risk
1 reflecting slight opportunity or slight risk
2 reflecting substantial opportunity or substantial risk
3 reflecting great opportunity or great risk
Trade-environment-sustainable development links
The AEO process should review the extent to which trade and investment have impacted on
sustainable development in the sub-region.
The principles developed by the United Nations Development Programmes (UNDP) Global
Roundtable on Trade and Investment for Sustainable Development, held in Abuja in 2002 can
provide a useful basis for assessing and evaluate trade and investment. The agreed eight principles
(UNDP 2002) are:
1. Trade and investment policy must be a means towards sustainable development.
2. Equity is at the core of the trade, investment and sustainable development relationship.
3. Developing countries must be provided market access and fair terms of trade.
4. Policy coherence is essential.
5. Space for innovative sustainable development policy must be safeguarded.
6. Innovation must be promoted.
7. An enabling environment must be fostered.
8. Empowerment and inclusiveness are essential.
Three integrated assessments, undertaken by UNEP, of trade liberalization and trade-related policies
in Nigeria (crop sector), Senegal (fisheries), and Tanzania (forestry) provide insights and useful
comparative experiences that can support the assessment (UNEP 2002b, UNEP 2002c, UNEP
2002d). The UNEP assessments examine the product, technology, scale, structural, and regulatory
impacts of trade policy reforms on the environment (Abaza and Jha 2002).
The relationship between WTO and environment needs to be taken into account in analyzing and
assessing policies. There is a wide-range of perspectives on how trade and environment relate to
each other and the implications of this for sustainability (see UNEP and IISD 2005). In general
perspectives focus on either trade, or environment, or development although there are increasing
numbers of holistic approaches (UNEP and IISD 2005).
Guidance 16
Assess in each sub-region the extent to which decentralization of environmental management
has empowered resource users and improved environmental management.
Assess in each sub-region progress in mainstreaming environment in national policies,
plans, and programmes. Options include:
(a) Ascertaining the difficulties encountered and the successes achieved in using the valuation of
the natural capital as a strategy for improving the integration of environment into planning
and budgeting.
(b) Assessing the impact of integrated conservation and development approaches on
conservation in protected areas and on the livelihood benefits derived.
(c) The effect of SEA on:
Greening poverty reduction strategies; and
How trade and investment liberalization are implemented and whether this minimizes
environmental risks.
Review and synthesize in appropriate sub-regions emerging lessons and good practices
from trade liberalization policies.
51
UNDERSTAND THE INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY POLICY IMPLEMENTATION LINKS

Africa faces serious challenges in implementing existing policy. For example, the ineffectiveness of
policies related to human vulnerability and environmental change is an ongoing challenge (UNEP
2002). Many of these constraints are related to insufficient institutional capacity.
Constraints to effective implementation identified in AEO-1 include (UNEP 2002):
The absence of adequate implementation plans.
Weak implementation capacity.
Conflicts between agencies with related environmental mandates.
Failure to build synergies between various sector policies and between such policies and the
MEAs.
Identifying and understanding implementation constraints can set the basis for more strategic policy
recommendations.
Guidance 17
Establish the extent to which:
(a) Appropriate implementation plans have been used in the application of policies.
(b) Relevant legal instruments have been enacted to facilitate policy implementation.
(c) Approaches to implementing national environmental policies are anchored on the UNCED
Conventions and if synergies have been identified to optimise the limited human resource
capacity.; and
(d) Upstream-downstream synergies are proactively supported to enhance policy design and
implementation.
52
CHAPTER
D ISCERNING ISSUES FOR RESPONSE AND ACTION
Sustainable livelihoods have many dimensions. Boys and their cattle in a dryland forest, southern
Ethiopia.
In this Chapter:
The link between environmental state-and-trends information and identifying opportunities
is explored.
The challenges of translating opportunities into policies that can be effectively implemented
are considered.
The impacts of policies on opportunities to enhance livelihoods and promote development
are discussed.
The identification of emerging issues and developing appropriate policy responses is
considered.
Outlook
The Opportunities Framework used in the AEO-2 assessment focuses on identifying the opportunities
available from existing resources for promoting development, improving human well-being, and
enhancing livelihoods (see Chapter 1). In applying the opportunities framework, the assessment
should answer the following questions:
What are the available resources at regional and sub-regional levels?
What is the valueopportunities and potentialof these resources ecologically, socially,
and economically?
What are the demands and pressures (both human and natural) placed on the sustainable
management of these resources?
What is the outlook if appropriate action is not taken now?
What policy actions have been adopted to enhance opportunities and what policy actions
are needed to reduce the pressures and sustainably maximize the potential of available
resources?
53
How will vulnerability be affected by the failure to seize the opportunities and effectively
curb ongoing environmental degradation?
If the opportunities are seized, how will the local population benefit from accrued
revenues?
PEOPLE AND LIVELIHOODS

There is an intricate link between livelihoods, the integrity of the ecosystems and general environmental
quality. Just as changes in environmental conditions and impact on peoples livelihoods, socioeconomic changes aimed at improving peoples livelihoods impact on the environment.
The policy implications of these changes deserve careful attention with the view of ensuring that
appropriate responses are instituted.
Guidance 18
Identify and assess how environmental and non-environmental policies at the national and subregional levels have impacted on livelihoods, including emerging lessons and best practices.
Identify whether local knowledge and technology, especially that of indigenous people,
has been safeguarded and strategically used to promote sound environmental management
programmes. And where this is the case, if local livelihoods have also been adequately
protected and secured.
Assess how increasing globalization and the links between national and supra-national
environmental policy making impacts on livelihoods in the various sub-regions. Identify areas
of complementarity as well as conflicts between national and multilateral norms and policies.
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT

One important task for the assessment is to clearly define and determine the scope of the available
environmental opportunities for trade and development.
In transforming these opportunities into tangible trade and development policies governments are
likely to experience both domestic and external challenges. The domestic challenges include the
absence of a conducive policy environment and insufficient institutional or technical capacity for
seizing the opportunity. Externally driven challenges can include trade polices and subsidy regimes
in developed countries which foreclose the penetration of their markets by developing countries. The
assessment needs to analyse these challenges so that it is able to specify the policy and institutional
reforms and capacity development needed to seize these opportunities.
In making policy recommendations, AEO needs to take account of the challenges and constraints
national governments will facedomestic and external. Recommendations should not only specify
the requisite policy but identify the institutional reforms and capacity development needed for Africa
to effectively seize the available opportunities.
The assessment must also discern the extent to which existing polices impact on the conservation and
sustainable use of resources and the risks that degradation pose to the prospects of transforming the
opportunities into trade and development benefits. This includes establishing and assessing:
Ongoing pressures on available natural assets.
The extent to which anthropogenic activities are altering the state of the environment.
The implications of such environment change for seizing the identified opportunities.
54
Guidance 19
Identify emerging opportunities in using environmental assets for trade and development.
Highlight some of the policy and institutional challenges at the global, regional and national
levels that must be addresses if Africa is to effectively seize the available opportunities.
Guidance 19a
Assess decentralization and privatization policies in Africa. Highlight individual and joint
impacts as well as conflicts with other sector policies.
POLICY IMPACTS ON LIVELIHOODS AND DEVELOPMENT

Policiesboth environmental and non-environmentalimpact on the environmental opportunities
for development and enhancing livelihoods.
Table 4.1 provides a framework for assessing and reporting on the nature of policy impacts at the
national and sub-regional levels. This data needs to be supplemented with full descriptions as well
as careful analysis of impacts. The impact categories may be determined by AEO focal areas or
themes.
55
Table 4.1: Establishing impacts of policies

SOME CATEGORIES OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS
VULNERABILTY ENVIRONMENT
SECTORIAL
MACRO-ECONOMIC
Fiscal
Monetary
International
Coastal and
Marine
Environments
Atmosphere
Land
Settlement
Indigenous
Technical
knowledge
POLICIES
State
Expenditure
Tax/
Subsidy
Monetary
Exchange
Rate
Trade
Capital
Controls
Other
Price controls
Tax/Subsidy
Investment
Industrial
Housing
Transport
Water (e.g. pricing)
Energy (e.g. tariffs)
Agriculture (e.g. price

controls)
Land-use and tenure
Waste management
Disaster management
Policy impacts are not experienced uniformly across the population and understanding the different
impacts of existing policy is critical for revising and developing new policies. Prior to recommending
policies it is important to assess the potential impacts of proposed policies on different stakeholders.
Table 4.2 provides a framework for assessing these impacts. While Box 4.1 considers how new
approaches to company-community partnerships impact on livelihood opportunities. Table 4.3 can
be used to support such an analysis; it can also be modified to assess CCPs dealing in other natural
resource sectors, such as wildlife.
56
Table 4.2: Stakeholder Analysis who losers, who wins?
Consumers
Indigenous
People
Industrialists
Farmers
Elderly
Women
Youth
POSSIBLE STAKEHOLDER CATEGORIES
Positive
impacts
Negative
impact
POLICY
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
Stakeholders
reaping benefits
DESCRIPTION OF BENEFITS (QUANTITATIVE AND

QUALITATIVE)
57
Box 4.1: Assessing impacts of company-community partnerships on people

and the environment
Africa is witnessing growing interest in the application of the concept of corporate social
responsibility (CSR) to natural resource use and related productive areas. These CSR initiatives
seek to demonstrate corporate commitment to operating in a socially and environmentally
responsible manner, and include company-community partnerships (CCPs).
The implementation of CSR initiatives has been facilitated by creative legal and policy reform
in the forest and wildlife sectors. In Kenya, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana and Namibia,
for example, tourism development that supports local benefits is shaping wildlife management.
In the forest sector, Ghana, Cameroon and South Africa are leading in the application of the
CCPs.
The use of CCPsto increase opportunities for improved natural resource management
and enhancing livelihoodsshould be carefully assessed (see Table 4.3). This will increase
understanding of:
The importance of favourable policy environments in creating new opportunities;
Who has benefited; and
Incidences of policy capture or policy failure that are undermining the performance of the
partnerships and expose communities to livelihood and environmental insecurity.
In Africa, CCPs in the forestry and wildlife sectors have had mixed results in creating livelihood
opportunities and in harnessing community participation and commitment in the sustainable use
and management of the natural resources. A review of CCP in the forest sector in 23 countries
including South Africa, Guinea, Ghana and Zimbabwerevealed that the partnerships
have not resulted in equitable, efficient, and sustainable systems that return benefits to the
company, the community and forests on a long-term basis (Mayers and Vermeulen 2002). The
Namibian CCP experience with tourism development in conservanciesprivately-held wildlife
management areashas also had mixed results. Although in some cases, communities have
experienced improvements in income; in others they have suffered labour and human rights
abuses by the partner company (Roe, Greig-Gran, and Schalken 2001).
Sources: Mayers and Vermeulen 2002; Roe and others 2001
58
sharing
and
policy
lessons
from
LESSONS
LEARNT
Policy
lessons
Target group
Type
Target group
Type
Enabling policy
Implementing
country
FOREST COMPANY COMMUNITY PARTNERSHIP 1

PRODUCT
CONTEXT
IMPLEMENTATION
OUTCOMES
Positive
Negative
forestry
Operational
lessons
Table 4.3: Assessing benefit

partnerships
High-quality
timber
Industrial pulp
wood
Commodity
wood
Certified wood
Non-timber
forest product
Forest product
processing
Environmental
services
Guidance 20
Establish the nature of the impacts of selected trade and trade-related policies on livelihoods
and development.
Assess and evaluate trade and trade-related policies, focusing on whether or not expected
outcomes have been achieved.
Identify and analyse unexpected outcomes and their effects on environmental sustainability and
livelihoods
Guidance 20a
Review at least one natural resource-based CCP/CSR in each of the sub-regions:
(a) indicate the major policy and institutional reforms that facilitated the CCP/CSR initiative;
(b) illustrate how the forms of CCP/CSR agreements and management arrangements influenced
performance, benefit sharing and sustainability;
(c) discern policy and operational lessons to guide future CCP/CSR application
59
EMERGING ISSUES
Environmental and macro-economic change produces new issues and rekindles old ones in new
forms. These emerging issues are likely to impact on the environment and livelihoods.
Extreme weather events are a case in point. Such events, for example, have health and economic
consequences. The emergence of the Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in the Horn of Africa, for example,
was linked to the anomalous weather in the 1990s (Centre for Health and the Global Environment
1999). Some extreme weather events can cause considerable damage to the environment and
livelihoods especially where decades of environmental degradation have weakened the natural
resilience and buffering capacities of ecosystems. That indeed was the experience with Hurricane
Mitch in Central America (Girot 2002).
The health and environmental risks associated with the use of genetically modified organisms
(GMOs) to bolster food security in Africa is another emerging issue of interest (see UNEP 2006a).
Yet another emerging environment-health issue is the resurgence of Malaria and its occurrence in
areas that have historically been free from Malaria.
Environment and conflict is an ongoing environmental challenge that is likely to persist into the shortand medium-term. Given its profound impact on livelihoods and opportunities it is of considerable
importance; significantly the environment is also potentially a pathway to peace (Conca and Dabelko
2002). For this reason it considered in depth in the AEO-2 report (See Huggins, Chenje, MohamedKaterere, with Attere 2006). Box 4.3 provides some further information on the opportunities
environment offers for peace and cooperation.
Box 4.2: Environmental opportunities for peace and cooperation
There is growing recognition that investment in environmental conservationmore sustainable
and equitable management and use of natural resourcesoffsets funds spent on peacekeeping
and humanitarian relief by attacking the roots of conflict and violence, rather than waiting to
address their consequences Richard Mathew, Mark Halle and Jason Switzer (2002).
Poor environmental management in the face of resource scarcity, resource abundance, and
inequity in access and distribution of benefits can destabilize societies and contribute to high
levels of insecurity that may engender violence and conflict (Huggins and others 2006).
Four opportunities are worth considering:
Better resource management practices might contribute to peace and stability, conditions that
are, in turn, essential for development and social justice (Matthew, Halle, and Switzer 2002).
Planned conservation of biodiversity can and should continue during times of conflict and
particularly in post-conflict reconstruction (Matthew and others 2002)
Conservation practices may provide a basis bringing parties who have been or are
engaged in conflict together to begin the process of peace-building around common
environmental concerns (Matthew and others 2002).
Ensuring sound environmental governance regimes that institutionalize strong monitoring
and control systems in countries with tradable environmental assets as well as adequate
international safeguards against illicit trade deals can help prevent the use of environmental
assets to generate revenue for financing conflicts (Smiles 2002, DFID 2003).
Where conservation practices are linked to improving and promoting sustainable livelihoods,
they may contribute directly to reducing conflict (UNEP 2007c). In addition good conservation
practices can help reduce the vulnerability of communities to hazards including those generated
by conflict (Matthews and others 2002).
Source: Matthew and others 2002, Smiles 2002, UNEP 2007c
60
It is essential that AEOAMCENs advocacy and monitoring tool keeps abreast of these and
other emerging issues. The assessment must produce accurate, credible and reliable information
and policy positions which can support AMCEN in its lobbying, advocacy and negotiations. Table
4.4 provides a general framework for that assessment.
Advocate for new

policy or policy
reform
Further policy
analysis
Further data
and information
collection
Raise awareness
Livelihoods
Appropriate response
Environment Target
Impact
Nature
Character and level of

importance
Some possible
emerging issues
Table 4.4: Working towards policy responses to emerging issues
Conflict and
environment
Human vulnerability to
extreme environmental
events and natural
disasters
Vulnerability of Small
Island Developing
States
Genetically Modified
0rganisms
Changing
demography
Non-timber forest
products
Emergence of new and
re-emergence of old
diseases
Trade and environment
Effects of nonenvironmental
agreements on
environmental issues
Trans-boundary
resource use,
especially water
HIV and AIDS
Table 14 can be used to derive appropriate policy responses to emerging issues. It is important
that the character of the emerging issue and the level of decision making at which it must be dealt
with are appropriately defined. Similarly, the main areas of impact, livelihoods or the environment
should be identified. Knowing who the most vulnerable groups to the helps target the response most
effectively. Proposed responses need to take account of the regional, sub-regional and national
context and in particular levels of capacity.
61
Guidance 21
Identify and analyse the main issues emerging from the changing macro-economic and
environmental situations in Africa and globally:
(a) Establish how the inter-play between domestic and global policies has contributed to either
the emergence of a new issue or the re-emergence of an old one.
(b) Establish the importance of the issues for Africa and their likely impacts on environment
and development.
(c) Determine how the data or information system and the analytical capacity for anticipating
emerging issues can be enhanced to support a more proactive policy response.
Guidance 21a
Examine and analysebased on the conceptual understanding of environment-security link
the governance-related policy and institutional issues at the national, sub-regional, regional and
global levels that:
(a) Enhance domestic availability of environmental assets such as gold and timber to
fomenters of conflict.
(b) Enable fomenters of conflict to easily and almost with impunity negotiate trade in
these commodities in international markets
THE OUTLOOK
A number of African countries were supported by the UNDP-funded Africa Features project to
elaborate their National Visions. In countries such as Uganda, the National Vision (Harmonious
Nation, Prosperous People and Beautiful Country) has partly influenced the formulation of the
Poverty Eradication Action Plan, which government believes is its sustainable development strategy
hence ongoing efforts to ensure that it is sufficiently greened. Ugandas Poverty Eradication
Action Plan serves as the framework for pursuing the MDGs. Other African countries have the
National Strategy for Sustainable Development in addition to the National Vision and the Poverty
Reduction Strategy.
Countries that elaborated national visions had to select one from a number of scenarios for
consideration. In producing the chapter on outlook, it is essential that the AEO assessment focuses
on one or two countries within the sub-region that have elaborated national vision to examine the
extent to which scenario development and visioning contributed to better strategies for dealing with
the challenges of sustainable development.
62
Guidance 22
In developing the outlook, the AEO assessment within each sub-region can
examine:
How the scenario on which a given national vision was based has so far influenced the
thrust and contents of the environmental and non-environment polices in the country.
Where sector scenarios were development, the alignment between sector scenarios (e.g.
energy, health and biodiversity) and the one on which the national vision is anchored and
the consequence of that the alignment, or lack of it, has had for the thrust and content of
sector polices.
The alignment between the scenario on which the national vision of the selected country
was anchored, the preferred AEO-1 scenario and how that alignment has influenced the
response by the country to the AEO-1 policy responses and actions.
The scenarios developed in Africa 2025 against those in AEO-1 with the view to selecting
those to propose in AEO-2, bearing in mind the regional and global forces that influences
the future of Africa.
63
64
CHAPTER
STRENGTHENING POLICY IMPLEMENTATION
Strong stakeholder contributes to greater policy acceptance. Women farmers discuss the use of
genetically modified crops at a Citizens Jury held in Mali in February 2006.
Source: Michel Pimbert
In this Chapter:
The link between the assessment process and the uptake of policy recommendations is
considered.
Tools for effectively communicating policy findings are discussed.
The link between national capacity and the implementation of AEO policy recommendations
is explored.
Three issues need to be addressed if policy implementation is to be strengthened:
First, the manner in which the policy recommendations are derived affects stakeholder
perceptions and ownership as well as implementation.
Second, safeguards must be taken to ensure the acceptability of the recommended policy
responses.
Third, a strategy for translating the proposed policy responses into concrete actions at the
sub-regional and national levels should be considered.
DERIVING POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

Policy recommendations should flow logically from the assessment and ideally should be reviewed
and validated by the AMCEN members and other key stakeholders. Guidance 23 can enable the
AEO practitioners achieve this.
65
Guidance 23
Maintain summary sheets on policy issues emerging from the assessment in the thematic,
emerging issues, and outlook chapters and use these as a basis for making recommendations
for policy responses.
Adopt specific criteria for selecting a limited number of policy actions for implementation. These
criteria may include urgency of problem and the relevance to MDGs and the NEPAD agenda.
T H E A C C E P T A B I L I T Y O F T H E R E C O M M E N D E D P OL I C Y R E S P O N S E S
The acceptability of the AEO recommendations can be measured by the extent to which they have
been adopted and implemented by the AMCEN member countries.
Acceptability can be enhanced by ensuring scientific credibilitydata analysis must be sufficiently
rigorous within the limits of available informationand effective communication. Reporting and
presentation needs to be accessible and easily understandable without over-simplification. Text
boxes can be used to illustrate lessons learnt and good practices that emerge from the policy
analysis. Several tools help enhance communication with stakeholders.
Trend analysis that depicts how the environmental situation has so far evolved and is likely to
become can capture the attention and interest of stakeholders. Environmental changes can be
captured be effectively illustrated through time series data as shown in Figure 5.1.
Figure 5.1
In 1998, Lake Victoria suffered a major water hyacinth invasion. As a result of committed action by
2000 the water hyacinth had been reduced to about 500 hectares. In December 2005, when the
right image was taken, the lake appeared to be clear. In November and December 2006, however,
the image shows the plants were re-emerging. The water is brown due to agricultural run-off and
nutrient-rich sediment.
Source: Nasa Earth Observatory 2007

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=17560
66
Captivating scenarios that depict the costs and benefits of responding in one way or the other,
including a no change option, is useful, especially if linked to specific case studies from a country
or number of countries within the sub-region.
Resource valuation studies that demonstrate the links between environment, poverty, and growth
can be an effective way to demonstrate to policy-makers why those links matter. See for example
Emerton and others 2001.
Poverty mapping can be an important visual tool for effectively communicating complex information
and relationships (See Chapter 4).
Case studiesboth country-specific and comparative evaluative studiescan be used to reinforcing
policy messages and lessons (See, for example, Ribot 2002). In instances where policy reforms are
proposed, it is essential that the proposals are anchored solidly on country experiences.
Compounding factors make attributing environmental and livelihood impacts to a particular policy
problematic. Studies using econometric or quasi-experimental models to assess the impact of like
policies elsewhere can be used to make more realistic statements on the likely outcome or impact
of the proposed policy or policy reform.
Guidance 24
Conduct AEO users survey to solicit opinions on the merit and usefulness of the recommendations
in the previous issue of the AEO. Build upon the methodology already applied by GEO.
FROM RECOMMENDED POLICY RESPONSES TO CONCRETE ACTION

The recommendations in AEO should provide some supporting information to facilitate implementation
of pertinent policy responses.
Previous AEO reports have identified not only the recommended action but also implementation
actors, the time frame for action, and the desired result. In subsequent assessments identified actions
may also have possible targets and monitoring indicators. This will assist in implementation of the
recommendations and in aligning them more closely to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
targets and the objectives of the New Partnership for Africas Develop (NEPAD) Environment Action
Plan (NEPAD-EAP). Stakeholder involvement in the assessment process can strength the policyrelevance of recommendations and ensure the support of possible implementation actors.
67
Table 5.1: Implementation status of

recommendations in AEO-1
AEO-1 POLICY ACTIONS
WITH IMMEDIATE AND
MEDIUM-TERM TIME FRAME
immediate
and
medium-term
policy
ACTIONS TAKEN BY NATIONAL ACTORS

Action
Agency Time
Source
Lessons
frame
of
learnt
support so far
1. Enhancing capacity to climate

change
2. Promotion of environmental
education
3. Focus on policy
failure
4. Compliance and
enforcement
5. Greening of development
strategies
6. Promoting greater
involvement of NGOs in
environmental management
7. Improving environmental
information systems
8. Mobilization of domestic
financial resources for
environmental management
Guidance 25
Develop analytical and communication strategies to communicate recommended policy
actions
SUPPORTING ACTORS AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL

Effective policy implementation requires effective action at the national level.
African countries, and sub-regions, are at different stages in promoting the integration of
environment and development. There is also considerable variation in the institutional arrangements
for promoting environmental protection and management. Further, there are also differences in the
space for civil society and private sector engagement and participation in policy making. These
differences must be taken into account in recommending policy actions and improving capacity for
their implementation. Some possible actions include:
Strengthening data and information systems to support better situational analysis;
Strengthening capacity for policy analysis, policy dialogue, and advocacy especially in
countries and sub-regions with good data and information systems;
Strengthening the technical skills needed to use the available information to get the policy
issue on to the political agenda and the budget frameworks of AMCEN member countries
and other relevant intergovernmental organizations.
68
Weak
Budget
negotiations
Strong
Weak
Advocacy
Strong
Weak
Policy
dialogue
Strong
Weak
Strong
Low
Policy
analysis
QUALITY OF DATA OR
INFORMATION SYSTEM
High
Multi-sector
MAIN AGENCY
RESPONSIBLE FOR
ENVIRONMENT
Sector
COUNTRY
CAPACITY
Table 5.2: Reviewing information, institutional and analytical capacity
2
3
4
Table 5.2 can be used to review the institutional capacity and information system for integrated
environment assessment (IEA) within a given sub-region. In the case of analytical capacity, where
the review suggests that strong policy analysis capacity already exists, it is useful to further specify
whether it is across the board or mainly within a particular discipline. Similarly, if the review
suggests that the quality of the data and information systems is high, it is useful to feature the
elements used to reach that judgement.
Guidance 26
Assess the available skills in the sub-region capacity for environmental policy analysis and
determine priority capacity building needs to sustain the AEO process.
Conclude the review by specifying the necessary capacity strengthening needs to improve
policy analysis and policy implementation at the national and sub-regional levels.
69
70
CHAPTER
LOOKING TO THE FUTURE
Looking to the Future. Forest workers clearing fireguards to protect standing plantation forests,
Zimbabwe
Our biggest challenge this century is to take an idea that seems abstractsustainable
developmentand turn it into a reality for all the worlds peoples.
Kofi Annan, 7th Secretary General of the United Nations, 1997-2006
These Guidelinesdeveloped for Africa Environment Outlook (AEO) practitioners are an
important capacity building product, providing guidance on strengthening policy analysis in the
various stages of the assessment and in the report itself.
The Guidelines focus on policy issues that are pertinent to enabling Africa use its natural assets
effectively in promoting sustainable development and enhancing livelihoods. In addition, given the
growing interest, in Africa, in integrating environment planning with development, this too is an
important focus.
The Guidelines enhance capacity to analyse policies and understand their impact on both the
environment and people. And consequently, set a firm basis for improved policy recommendations.
The strength and relevance of the policy recommendations and actions from the AEO assessment
will largely depend on how well the policy analysis is dealt with throughout the process. The AEO
practitioners must bring their wealth of experience in environmental management to bear on the
assessment process. The guidelines are expected to enable practitioners identify knowledge gaps,
which can be addressed in subsequent assessments or through commissioned policy analysis case
studies.
One challenge is to continue to strengthen the assessment process and meaningful policy analysis.
Capacity building needs to be ongoing. The guidelines are expected to enable practitioners identify
knowledge gaps, which can be addressed in subsequent assessments or through commissioned
policy analysis case studies.
Continually improving the Guidelines is of critical importance. The Guidelines should be seen as
work in progress that should be subjected to rigorous revision based on experiences gained from its
71
application. A wide range of policy actors, including policy-makers in AMCEN member countries,
should be consulted and involved in further developing these guidelines. This should include policymakers within and outside the environment ministry. Further, sub-regional organizations, such as the
Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Economic Community of West African
States (ECOWAS), as well as the relevant arms of the African Union should also be consulted.
This would help identify sub-regional and regional priority issues. Involvement of academic and
professional policy analysis organizations would also be beneficial.
More than ever before in human history, we share a common destiny.
We can master it only if we face it together.
Kofi Annan, 7th Secretary General of the United Nations, 1997-2006
72
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The goal of the Africa Environment Information Network (AEIN) implementation

strategy is to test the assumption that some data exists in some form, somewhere in
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national, sub-regional and regional levels. It is also used to implement various pilot
activities with respect to networking, establishment of mechanisms for harmonizing
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Policy Analysis Guidelines For IEA

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Policy Analysis Guidelines For IEA

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AFRICA

United Nations Environment Programme

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United Nations Environment Programme i

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

Africa Environment Outlook

Africa Environment Information Network

African Ministerial Conference on Environment

Convention on Biological Diversity

Corporate social responsibility

Drivers, Pressures, State, Impact, Response

East African Community

Economic Community of West African States

Environmental Impact Assessment

Environmental Sustainability Index

Global Environment Outlook

Genetically Modified Organisms

Human Development Report

Integrated Environmental Assessment

International Institute for Sustainable Development

Indian Ocean Commission

Millennium Development Goals

Multilateral Environmental Agreements

New Partnership for Africas Development

New Partnership for Africas Development Environment Action Plan

National Environment Outlook

Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers

Poverty Environment Network

Payment for Environmental Services

Rift Valley Fever

Southern African Development Community

Strategic Environmental Assessment

United Nations Development Programme

United Nations Environment Programme

Water, Energy, Health, Agriculture, Biodiversity

World Summit on Sustainable Development

INTRODUCTION WHY POLICY GUIDELINES?

Integrated environmental assessment that provides comprehensive information on environmental

POLICY ANALYSIS AND INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

Box 0.1: Integrated environmental assessment a recognized decision making

STRENGTHENING CAPACITY FOR POLICY-RELEVANT IEA

USING THE GUIDELINES

c) Understanding the complex hierarchical links between policiesfrom local to global

Photo: Jennifer Mohamed-Katerere

Complementary texts support the Guidelines

A poster depicting the Environment for Development theme of AEO-2

THE DPSIR FRAMEWORK

Figure 1. 1: The DPSIR Framework

200 7 - 2015 (short-term)

Box 1.1: Africa Environment Outlook-2: Our Environment, Our Wealth

Placing Opportunity at the Centre of Environmental Assessment

Figure 1.2 The Opportunities Framework

Impacts on and new

POLICY ANALYSIS IN IEA

POLITICAL & ECONOMIC

Identifying key problems

Identifying and analyzing

Formal adoption meeting

Source: Jennifer Mohamed-Katerere based on Barkenbus 1998

Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Box 2.2: The 2010 Biodiversity Goals

Good social relations

LIFE ON EARTH - BIODIVERSITY