Thefutureoflanguage

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Pauseliveupdate

ByRickNoack September24

AwomanlooksathersmartphoneattheobservationdeckoftheShanghaiWorld
FinancialCenter.(TomohiroOhsumi/Bloomberg)

Tosomeextent,Americanshaveanadvantageovermuchofthe
world'spopulation:Thecountry'stwomostwidelyspoken
languagesEnglishandSpanishareamongthemostwidely
spokenworldwide.So,areAmericansstillwillingtotakelanguage
classes?
ThenumberofAmericanstudentswholearnedalanguageother
thanEnglishdecreasedbyabout100,000between2009and2013,
accordingtoresearchbytheModernLanguageAssociation.For
many,takingaclassineconomicsmightseemmorebeneficialthan

aFrenchcourse.Butisitreally?
TheChinesedialectscombinedalreadyhavemorenative
speakersthananyotherlanguage,followedbyHindiandUrdu,
whichhavethesamelinguisticoriginsinnorthernIndia.English
comesnextwith527millionnativespeakers.Arabicisspokenby
nearly100millionmorenativespeakersthanSpanish,whichhas
389millionspeakers.

Whichlanguageswilldominatethefuture?Predictionsvary,
dependingonyourlocationandpurpose.Buthereareafewways
toapproachthisquestion.

Youwanttomakemoneyingrowthmarkets?Thesewill
beyourlanguages.
InarecentU.K.focusedreport,theBritishCouncil,athinktank,
identifiedmorethan20growthmarketsandtheirmainlanguages.
ThereportfeatureslanguagesspokeninthesocalledBRIC
countriesBrazil,Russia,India,Chinathatareusually
perceivedastheworld'sbiggestemergingeconomies,aswellas
morenichegrowthmarketsthatareincludedinlistsproducedby
investmentbankGoldmanSachsandservicesfirmErnst&Young.
"SpanishandArabicscoreparticularlyhighlyonthisindicator,"the
BritishCouncilreportconcludedfortheU.K.However,when
takingintoaccountdemographictrendsuntil2050aslaidoutby
theUnitedNations,theresultisverydifferent.

Hindi,Bengali,UrduandIndonesianwilldominatemuchofthe
businessworldby2050,followedbySpanish,Portuguese,Arabic
andRussian.Ifyouwanttogetthemostmoneyoutofyour
languagecourse,studyingoneofthelanguageslistedaboveis
probablyasafebet.

Ofcourse,demographicdevelopmentsarehardtopredict.
Moreover,theBritishCouncilonlyincludedtoday'sgrowth
markets,whichsayslittleaboutthegrowthpotentialofother
nationsthatarestillfairlysmalltoday.Also,ArabicandChinese,
forinstance,havemanydialectsandlocalversions,whichcould
makeitharderforforeignerstocommunicate.
Despiteallthat,thechartabovegivesabroadlookintowhich
linguisticdirectionthebusinessworldisdeveloping:awayfrom
EuropeandNorthAmerica,andmoretowardAsiaandtheMiddle
East.
Youwanttospeaktoasmanypeopleaspossible?How
aboutChinese,SpanishorFrench?
GermanlinguisticexpertUlrichAmmon,whoconducteda15year
longstudy,recentlyreleasedasummaryofhisresearch.Inhis
book,Ammonanalyzesthelanguageswiththemostnative
speakersandthemostlanguagelearnersaroundtheworld.
Especiallyforthelatteraspect,thereislittleoriginaldataavailable,
whichiswhyAmmondoesnotprovidepredictionsofexact
numbersofspeakersperlanguage.
Here'shistopthreeofthelanguagesyoushouldlearnifyouwant
tousethelanguageasoftenaspossible,everywhereintheworld.If
youdonothavetime,however,don'tworrytoomuch:Englishwill
continuetotopallrankingsinthenearfuture,accordingto
Ammon.
1.Chinese."AlthoughChinesehasthreetimesmorenative
speakersthanEnglish,it'sstillnotasevenlyspreadoverthe
world,"Ammonsaid."Moreover,Chineseisonlyrarelyusedin

sciencesanddifficulttoreadandwrite."
2.Spanish.Spanishmakesupforalackofnativespeakers
comparedwithChinabybeingparticularlypopularasasecond
language,taughtinschoolsaroundtheworld,Ammonsaid.
3.French."Frenchhaslostgroundsinsomeregionsand
especiallyinEuropeinthelastdecades,"Ammonexplained.
"French,however,couldgaininfluenceagainifwestAfricawhereit
isfrequentlyspokenweretobecomemorepoliticallystableand
economicallyattractive."
A2014studybythe
investmentbankNatixis
evenpredictedthatFrench
wouldbecometheworld's
mostwidelyspoken
languageby2050.The
(GonzaloFuentes/Reuters)

authorsofthestudy
referredto

weredemographicgrowthprospectsinAfrica."Frenchisalso
widespreadinmanysmallercountries,"Ammonsaid.However,the
studydidnottakeintoaccountasignificantfact:Noteveryonewho
livesincountrieswhereFrenchisspokenisactuallyfluentin
French.
Youwanttovisitasmanycountriesaspossiblebutspeak
justonelanguage?
Thismapshowsthenumberofcountrieswherecertainlanguages
arespoken.Mostoftheselanguagesalsoappearinthetwo
categoriesabove.Butawordofcaution:Inmanynations,a

languagemightbespokenbysome,butmasteredbyfew.

Whattolearnifyou'reinterestedinculture
Althoughthegraphicsbelowmightappearconfusingatfirst,they
enlightenanoftenneglectedaspectwhenassessingtheworld's
majorlanguages.
Agroupofinternationalresearchersrecentlyanalyzed2.2
millionbooktranslationsfromaroundtheworld:Their
visualization,basedondataprovidedbyUNESCOsIndex
Translationumproject,offersrareinsightsintosocalledhub
languages,whichareespeciallysignificantculturally:Ifabookis

publishedinasmallerlanguage,itwillusuallybetranslatedintoa
hublanguage.Inthisgraphic,hublanguagesarecharacterizedby
theircentralposition,multiconnectednessandtheintensityofthe
nations'relationshipwhicharevisuallyemphasizedbythewidth
ofthelines.

(Credit:Ronen,S.,Gonalves,B.,Hu,K.Z.,Vespignani,A.,Pinker,S.,&Hidalgo,
C.A.2014.Linksthatspeak:Thegloballanguagenetworkanditsassociationwith
globalfame.ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences,111(52),E5616
E5622.)

Forinstance,booksfromAzerbaijan(oneofthegreencountries)
willnearlyalwaysbetranslatedintoRussian.

FromRussian,abookwillmostlikelybetranslatedintoEnglish
whichistheworld'spremierhublanguageforwrittenpublications.

French,aswellasotherEuropeanlanguages,suchasItalian,
GermanorDutch,arealsoparticularlysignificanthublanguages.

Whatisinterestingaboutthisgraphicisthatculturalsignificance
doesnotappeartocorrelatewiththemostrecenteconomicor
demographicimportanceofalanguage:German,Dutchoreven
Russianarestilldisproportionatelyrepresented.
ShaharRonen,whowasamongtheresearcherswhoproducedthe
graphics,saysthatthelatestdataonlanguagesusedonTwitter
showsacleartrend,though:Somemoretraditionallanguages,
whicharedominanthublanguagesforbooktranslations,willlose
influence."Asitoftenhappens,theriseofsomelanguagescomesat
theexpenseofothers.RussianandGermanaretwolanguages
whoseglobalimpactisonthedecline:botharetoplanguagesin
booktranslationsandWikipedia,butbarelymakeittothetop15
onTwitter,"Ronenexplained.

Inotherwords:Thereisnoonesinglelanguageofthefuture.
Instead,languagelearnerswillincreasinglyhavetoask
themselvesabouttheirgoalsandownmotivationsbeforemakinga
decision.

RickNoackwritesaboutforeignaffairsandisbasedin
Europe.

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Davoud
8:09AMGMT0500

Arabic,French,Hebrew,Lao,andThai.Itdoesn'tmatterifthewaiteror
thetaxidriverspeaksEnglish.Thepeopleofthatcountryaremouldedby
theirlanguageandviceversa.Ifwewanttounderstandtheworldandget
alonginit,wehavetotalktopeopleintheirlanguage.Wehavenoonein
highofficeinthiscountrywhospeaksArabic,e.g.Andlookwhereour
failuretounderstandtheArabsandIslamhasgottenus.
1

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imthatguy
8:51AMGMT0500

LanguageisatfaultfornotunderstandingIslamorArabs?I'll
grantthatunderstandingacultureinvolvesthelanguage,butI
thinkyouroverstatingtheimportanceoflanguage...justatad.
MaybeIslamisa3rdcenturyreligionhereinthe22ndCentury
mighthavesomethingtodowithit?Howaboutthetyrannyof
sharialaw?Whatabouttheirfailuretounderstand(letalone
accept)liberty,freedomofspeech,andfreedomofreligion?Or
shouldIsaytheydounderstandit,rejectit,andtheirsolutionisto
killanyonewhodisagrees?(Andifyou'rethinkinga'moderate'
followerofIslammightdosomethingdifferent,readthe
translationsofmoderateSaudiclerics.)

Like Reply

Davoud
7:54PMGMT0500

Youmakemypointbya)notknowingthecenturyin
whichIslamwasfounded,andb)whatcenturyweare
in(intheCommonEra).AsforMuslimsintheMiddle
East,howmanydoyouknowpersonally?Whatmakes
youthinkIhavetoreadthewordsofSaudiclericsin
translation!?
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LordTruth
7:57AMGMT0500[Edited]

Whatanincrediblystupidunthoughtoutarticle.Isupposeitappealsto
thoseAmericanswhoalwaysfeeluncomfortablehavingtospeakwhat
maybeforthemisanalienlanguage
Herehoweverarethefacts.
ThespreadofEnglishthroughouttheworldisobviouslybasically
becauseoftheBritishEmpirespoliticalandtechnologicaladvancesthat
lastedfromabout1600until1940.TheBritishinfluencewasthenpushed
intosecondorthirdplacebyAmericawhichisalsoEnglishspeaking.The
reallyinternationalspreadofEnglishculturallywasbeguninthe1960by
thearrivalofBritishpopculturethathaslastedtothisdayandthe
centralizationofLondonastheworldscapitalcity(noitsnotNewYork)
Britishculturedominatestheentireworld.Everywhere,inJapanAlaska
SiberiaChinaandIndonesiawomenarebuyingbooksfortheirchildren
andthemselves.Alice,PoohWindintheWilowsBeatrixPotterPostman
PatThomastheTankEngineNoddyPeterPanNarniaHarryPotterand
laterJamesBondSherlockHolmesandAgathaChristieplusthegreat
classicslikeDickensetc
Thereisnonationthathassuchinfluenceonmorepeopleintheworld
thoughitsculturethantheBritish.
Butthereareotherfactorsalso.UnlikemostlanguagesEnglishisan
exceptionallyeasylanguagetospeak..itsgrammarcomparedtoothersis
nearlynonexistentAlsospeakingEnglishwithdifferentaccentsisno
problem.
HoweverEnteringEnglishislikeenteringacompleteuniverse..Ithas
morewordsthananyotherlanguageandseveralwordsforthesame
feelingmeaningitispoeticandscientific.
Thereisnowaythatanylanguagecanchallengeit.Americansshouldbe
luckyitistheirlanguagetoo.
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imthatguy
9:03AMGMT0500

NothinglikebashingAmericans.I'mwithyouonhowwellthis
articlewasthoughtout.TheMagnaCartaandBritishinfluence
allgoodthingsasfarasthisAmericanisconcerned(can't
believeyouforgotShakespeare).EnglishisTHElanguageforits
adaptability,andabilitytocommunicatedetails(italsohasgreat
abilitytoobfuscate,however.)Let'salsoacknowledgeoneof
thesereasonsforEnglishlanguagedominance(especiallyin
business)isduetoAmerica.Letsalsolimitsnidecriticismof
AmericansandTheUnitedStatesofAmericatothosewhose
countryhasmoonrocks.

Like Reply

imthatguy
6:20AMGMT0500

TherearemanyreasonswhypeopleinAmericaonlyspeakEnglish.The
samereasonmostRussiansspeakonlyRussian.Travel1,000milesand
you'llstillfindpeoplewhospeakEnglish(orRussian).Travel1,000miles
inIndiaandyou'llstillmanywhospeakEnglish.

IcangetbywithSpanishandIknowsomeGerman,someFrench&even
afewphrasesofMandarinandCantonese(theyaretwocompletely
differentlanguagesbytheway,Mr.Noack...thereisn'ta"Chinese"
languageasmyfriendsfrommainlandChinaandTaiwanhavetoldme
manytimesandotherpeoplehavepointedout).

Thisarticleisinterestingbutwayoffinmostrespects(the"Chinese"
languageisadeadgiveaway...alsonomentionthatEnglishisspoken
throughoutIndia).WanttobeaPilot?Englishisthelanguagenomatter
whereyoufly.Wanttobeaprogrammer?AgainmostlyEnglish.Ilikedthe
commentbelow...studyalanguageyoulove.Or(andthisismydream)
spendalittletimeinthecountryandimmerseyourself.
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EvgenyKorogodsky
5:18AMGMT0500

IknowRussian,EnglishandGermanandItotallydontgetwhywouldI
needanyotherlanguagebutEnglishIfiwastoliveinAmerica.Except
Spanishmaybe.
AndbythewayIveryseldomspeakGermanwhenIvisitEurope
becauseeveryoneknowsEnglish.

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yankinfrance
4:09AMGMT0500

MyadviceisforpeopletostudythelanguagetheyLOVE,asopposedto
choosingonebasedonthenumberofpotentialbusinessopportunities.
Learningalanguageisalongandhardroad,andveryfewpeoplemakeit
allthewaytofull(oruseful)languagefluency.
Fortyyearsago,IwastoldthatstudyingFrenchwastotallyuseless,butI
felthighlymotivatedtolearnmoreaboutFrance,itshistoryandculture.
Asaresult,thislanguageresistantman(poormemoryandevenworse
hearing!)actuallylearnedhowtospeak,writeandreadthelanguageof
Voltaireverywell.Tomyutterastonishment!Ibenefitedfromthesame
verypositiveexperienceinSpanish.
WithoutastrongandenduringappreciationofHispanicandFrench
speakingpeoples,IcouldhaveNEVERmadesuchalonglinguistic
journey.
Myadviceinlanguageselectionreflectsthetimetestedviewabout
studyingforsuccess:StudywhatYOUwanttodo,andthentrytomakeit
workinthebusinessworld.Youwillneedtoadapt,butthatisalwaystrue.
Inmycase,Icombinedmyinterestinlaw,financeandpoliticstodevelop
asolidfreelancetranslationbusiness,whichhasallowedmetoliveand
workwhereIwant.
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