A Dissertation
by
Franziska Strauss
Supervisor:
Univ.Prof. DI Dr. Erwin Schmid
Co-advisors:
Dr. Elena Moltchanova
Mag. Dr. Herbert Formayer
DI Dr. Franz Sinabell
Table of Contents
Abstract ...................................................................................................................... ii
Kurzfassung.............................................................................................................. iii
1. Introduction............................................................................................................1
3.2 High resolution climate data for Austria in the period from 2008 to 2040
Austria ............................................................................................................11
risk ..................................................................................................................13
Austria .............................................................................................................14
References ...............................................................................................................15
Abstract
Modeling impacts of climate change on crop production for the next three decades
requires climate change scenario data with a high degree of meteorological
consistency and spatial and temporal resolution. In the course of this cumulative
thesis, the statistical climate model ACLiReM (Austrian Climate model based on
Linear Regression Methods) has been developed to produce climate change
scenarios including daily weather data on minimum and maximum temperatures,
solar radiation, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed for Austria at 1 km
grid resolution and the period 1975-2040. The climate change scenarios have been
statistically tested to assure physical and spatio-temporal consistencies. Developing
near future climate change scenarios by using statistical methods and observed
weather station data is seen as a valuable alternative to the well-known General
Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). Furthermore, the
statistical approach allows the modeling of extreme weather events such as
increased drought occurrences, which is also demonstrated in this thesis.
Biophysical process models like EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate)
have the potential to depict impacts on crop production of all anticipated variations in
input data (i.e. climate, topography, soils, management). Therefore, sensitivity
analyses have been performed which are important for providing valuable information
about the usefulness and appropriateness of such process models in impact studies
(e.g. for large scale applications) as well as for model inter-comparisons.
In this thesis, several economic optimization models have been developed and
applied in case study contexts. They integrate EPIC simulation data to derive optimal
crop management portfolios and investment strategies under consideration of
production risks and uncertainties both arising from future weather conditions. The
analyses of the thesis demonstrate that the developed climate change scenarios in
conjunction with EPIC and economic optimization models are adequate tools to
assess the impacts on climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, which can be
used to design effective adaptation strategies.
ii
Kurzfassung
Die Modellierung von Klimafolgenwirkungen in der Landwirtschaft in den nchsten
drei Dekaden bedarf hoch aufgelster und konsistenter Klimawandeldaten. Im
Rahmen dieser kumulativen Dissertation wurde das statistische Klimamodell
ACLiReM (Austrian Climate model based on Linear Regression Methods) entwickelt,
um
Klimawandelszenarien
mit
tglichen
Wetterdaten
zu
Minimum-
und
Investitionsstrategien
fr
Bewsserung
unter
Wetterunsicherheit
und
Klimawandelszenarien,
EPIC
und
die
konomischen
1. Introduction
1.1
Throughout the thesis, the time span of interest is the period 20082040, denoted as the near future, which
covers a typical climatological period (cp. definition of climate normals in a 30 year period from the World
MeteorologicalOrganization WMO).
Research objectives
One major objective of this thesis is the development of high resolution climate
change scenarios for Austria and the near future to be readily available for impact
analyses in climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture. These near future climate
change scenarios should be more consistent in a spatial and temporal context than
those usually provided by GCMs or RCMs. In addition, they should be physically
more consistent with respect to multiple weather parameters i.e. minimum and
maximum temperatures, precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind
speed, and thus shall be directly usable for impact analyses without the need of
employing
complex
bias-correction
algorithms.
Furthermore,
the
developed
2. Research methodology
2.1
(1)
m1
dependence
has
been
observed
5
in
the
temperature
residuals
(2)
where (d) is the set of all climate clusters (60 climate clusters in Austria) dry
on day d, and Ac is the area of the climate cluster c ( corresponds to the total
area of Austria). The Beta-distribution approach can also be used to develop other
extreme weather scenarios with e.g. increased occurrences of flood events.
In all statistical climate change scenarios, the temporal and spatial correlations
of solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed with temperature and precipitation
data are by construction similar to the historical observations. This is an important
criterion of the statistical approach compared to GCMs or RCMs, particularly for near
future analyses.
2.2
The statistical climate change scenarios have been used for integrated impact
analyses of climate change on Austrian crop production in different case study
contexts. In particular, the climate change scenarios from ACLiReM together with
soil, topographical and crop management data have been input to the biophysical
process model EPIC. Geo-referenced topographical and soil data (BFW, 2009) have
been processed to delineate Homogenous Response Units for Austria (HRUs; cp.
Strmer et al., 2012), necessary to apply deterministic biophysical process models at
large scale. In total, 443 HRUs have been delineated for the Austrian agricultural
area and merged with the data of the 60 climate clusters. In addition, typical crop
rotation systems have been derived with the CropRota model (Schnhart et al.,
2011b) and typical crop management systems (i.e. fertilization, irrigation and tillage
operations) are in accordance with the guidelines of good agricultural practices
(Strmer et al., 2012).
EPIC simulates important biophysical processes in agricultural land use
management such as evapotranspiration, erosion, mineralization, nitrification and
respiration. Deterministic biophysical process models need sufficient input data in
good quality to reliably simulate outcomes of natural processes. If experimental data
are available, the models can be calibrated and the predictive accuracy can be
statistically tested. These models are also used to simulate impacts of climate
change on crop production and environment at larger scales e.g. from regional to
global scales (e.g. Balkovi at al., 2011; Schnhart et al., 2011a; Schneider et al.,
2011) by merging various sources of geo-referenced, statistical, survey, and
disciplinary data. However, the calibration of models becomes infeasible and model
validation is often restricted to comparisons between simulated and statistical crop
yields as well as to sensitivity analyses such as performed in this thesis. Therefore, a
detailed sensitivity analysis has been undertaken for the Marchfeld region which
demonstrates the correlation of EPIC outputs with gradually and discretely
manipulated weather parameters (discretized sensitivity). Another biophysical impact
analysis compares output data from two biophysical process models (EPIC and
Biosphere Energy Transfer Hydrology - BETHY/DLR) simulated with different input
data considering climate, land cover and land use data.
3.1
Marchfeld
region,
Climatic
Change,
111:
641-664.
DOI
10.1007/s10584-011-0171-0.
Research article 1 has been published in the journal Climatic Change. A
prototype of the statistical climate model has been developed for the Marchfeld
region. In addition, the sensitivity of selected EPIC outputs (crop yields, topsoil
organic carbon contents, and nitrate leaching) to input parameters such as minimum
and maximum temperatures, precipitation and solar radiation from different climate
dataset sources has been analyzed. The article contributes to the scientific literature
on modeling regional climate change by (i) providing an alternative statistical
approach to model climate change using historical daily weather data, (ii) testing the
sensitivity of the biophysical process model EPIC on alternative climate change
datasets, and (iii) comparing the statistical climate model outputs with GCM outputs
(i.e. scenarios from TYNDALL Centre for Climate Change Research: TYN SC 2.0, cp.
Mitchell et al., 2004). For the latter contribution, the emissions scenarios A1FI and B1
of the Parallel Climate Model (PCM; one of the GCMs) have been consulted at the
grid point nearest to the Marchfeld region. A trivial form of statistical downscaling has
been applied to make the climate change data comparable.
3.2
literature on producing high resolution climate change scenario data, which are
directly usable for impact analyses and publicly available (www.landnutzung.at). The
strength of this dataset is a proper consideration of the physical interdependencies
as well as the spatio-temporal correlations between the six weather parameters used
(minimum and maximum temperatures, solar radiation, precipitation, relative humidity
and wind speed). Moreover, it represents well the local inter-annual variability and the
small scale climates in the complex topography of Austria. It is especially valuable for
different impact studies at regional to national levels.
3.3
Research article 3 has been submitted to the journal Climatic Change. Based
on the climate change dataset developed in research article 2, hypothetical drought
scenarios have been generated for Austria. Therefore, a drought index has been
defined by using the empirical Beta-distribution as initial condition, which represents
the fraction of the country area with zero precipitation on any given day. Moreover,
the impacts of increased drought occurrences on crop yields and evapotranspiration
rates have been assessed with EPIC at national scale. The article thus contributes to
the literature in modeling increased drought occurrences at national scale as well as
the impacts on crop production. Only few articles in the scientific literature have
investigated the interrelations between increased drought occurrences and crop
production, yet. The impact analysis of increased drought occurrences on Austrian
crop production indicate that - for the areas with the past precipitation below the
annual average of ~850 mm - already little increases in dryness will result in
significantly lower crop yields (0.88% decrease in crop yield per 1% decrease in
precipitation).
11
3.4
3.5
region,
Jahrbuch
der
sterreichischen
Gesellschaft
fr
change scenarios. Inputs to the portfolio models are computed profit distributions
which differ among crops, crop managements and climate change scenarios. The
standard diversification effect can be shown such that the more risk averse a farmer,
the more diversification occurs. Another result is that minimum tillage always appears
in the optimal portfolios, however, with different management alternatives with
respect to straw harvesting and fertilization. In contrast, irrigation is not part of the
optimal portfolio, as the increasing revenues through higher crop yields cannot
compensate the higher production costs. However, the optimal portfolio results
strongly depend on the assumptions made with respect to irrigation management (i.e.
fixed irrigation amounts are taken into account) and the calculation of production
costs (e.g. level of water price in case of irrigation).
3.6
equipment subsidies which can increase the probability of adopting water-saving drip
irrigation systems (Heumesser et al., 2012).
14
References
Alexandrow V, Hoogenboom G. 2000. Vulnerability and adaptation assessments of
agricultural crops under climate change in the Southeastern USA. Theoretical
and Applied Climatology 67:45-63.
Auer I, Bhm R, Mohnl H, Potzmann R, Schner W. 2000. KLIM - A digital
climatology of Austria 1961-1990. Proceedings of the 3rd European Conference
on Applied Climatology, 16 to 20 October 2000, Pisa, CD Rom, Institute of
Agrometeorology and Environmental Analysis, Florence.
Auer I, Bhm R, Jurkovic A, Lipa W, Orlik A, Potzmann R, Schner W, Ungersbck
M, Matulla C, Briffa K, Jones PD, Efthymiadis D, Brunetti M, Nanni T, Maugeri
M, Mercalli L, Mestre O, Moisselin J-M, Begert M, Mller-Westermeier G,
Kveton V, Bochnicek O, Stastny P, Lapin M, Szalai S, Szentimrey T, Cegnar T,
Dolinar M, Gajic-Capka M, Zaninovic K, Majstorovic Z, Nieplova E. 2007.
HISTALP - Historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the
greater Alpine region 1760-2003. International Journal of Climatology 27:17-46.
Auer I, Bhm R, Hofsttter M, Trk K, Kottek M. 2011. Long-term climate of
Carinthia: Historical climate trends, future scenarios and climate change indices
for the province of Carinthia. Final report of the Alpine Space Programme.
Balkovi J, Schmid E, Skalsk R, Novkov M. 2011. Modelling soil organic carbon
changes on arable land under climate change - a case study analysis of the
Kon Farm in Slovakia. Soil and Water Research 6:30-42.
BFW.
2009.
Digital
Soil
Map
for
Austria.
BFW,
Vienna
(http://gis.lebensministerium.at/eBOD).
BMLFUW. 2010. Auf dem Weg zu einer nationalen Anpassungsstrategie, Policy
paper.
Cayan DR, Maurer EP, Dettinger MD, Tyree M, Hayhoe K. 2008. Climate change
scenarios for the California region. Climatic Change 87(Suppl 1):S21-S42.
Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli RK,
Kwon WT, Laprise R, Magaa Rueda V, Mearns L, Menndez CG, Risnen J,
Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P. 2007. Regional climate projections. In: Solomon S,
Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, TignorM, Miller HL (eds)
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group
15
in
the
Pannonic
Region
Marchfeld,
Austria.
Pflanzenbauwissenschaften 8(1):1-9.
Schneider UA, Havlik P, Schmid E, Valin H, Mosnier A, Obersteiner M, Bottcher H,
Skalsky R, Balkovi J, Sauer T, Fritz S. 2011. Impacts of population growth,
economic development, and technical change on global food production and
consumption. Agricultural Systems 104(2):204-215.
Schner W, Auer I, Bhm R, Thaler S. 2003. Qualittskontrolle und statistische
Eigenschaften ausgewhlter Klimaparameter auf Tageswertbasis im Hinblick
auf Extremwerteanalysen, Teilprojekt von StartClim Startprojekt Klimaschutz:
Erste Analysen extremer Wetterereignisse und ihrer Auswirkungen in
sterreich, Wien.
Schnhart M, Schauppenlehner T, Schmid E, Muhar A. 2011a. Integration of bio
physical and economic models to analyze management intensity and landscape
structure effects at farm and landscape level. Agricultural Systems 104(2):122
134.
Schnhart M, Schmid E, Schneider U. 2011b. Crop Rota - A crop rotation model to
support integrated land use assessments. European Journal of Agronomy
34(4):263-277.
Schnwiese CD. 2008. Meteorologischer Hintergrund III - Extremereignisse aus
meteorologisch-statistischer Sicht. Promet (Deutscher Wetterdienst), Jahrg. 34,
1-2, 61-65.
Seneviratne SI, Lthi D, Litschi M, Schr C. 2006. Land-atmosphere coupling and
climate change in Europe. Nature 443:205-209.
Strmer B, Schmidt J, Schmid E, Sinabell F. 2012. Implications of agricultural
bioenergy crop production in a land constrained economy - the example of
Austria. Land Use Policy [accepted].
17
on
global
crop
yields.
Geophysical
Research
Letters.
doi:10.1029/2008GL033423.
Tebaldi C, Sans B. 2008. Joint projections of temperature and precipitation change
from multiple climate models: a hierarchical Bayesian approach. Journal of the
Royal Statistical Society A 172(1).
Vahrenholt F., Lning S. 2012. Die kalte Sonne, Warum die Klimakatastrophe nicht
stattfindet, Hoffmann und Campe, 445 pp, ISBN-10: 3455502504.
Williams JR. 1995. The EPIC Model. In: Singh, V.P. (eds.). Computer Models of
Watershed Hydrology, Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch,
Colorado, 909-1000.
18
Both Research article 1 and Research article 2 are available at the respective
Journals webpage
Research article 4:
estimates of carbon fixation in agricultural models to input data? Carbon Balance and
RESEARCH
Open Access
Abstract
Background: Process based vegetation models are central to understand the hydrological and carbon cycle. To
achieve useful results at regional to global scales, such models require various input data from a wide range of
earth observations. Since the geographical extent of these datasets varies from local to global scale, data quality
and validity is of major interest when they are chosen for use. It is important to assess the effect of different input
datasets in terms of quality to model outputs. In this article, we reflect on both: the uncertainty in input data and
the reliability of model results. For our case study analysis we selected the Marchfeld region in Austria. We used
independent meteorological datasets from the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics and the
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Land cover / land use information was taken
from the GLC2000 and the CORINE 2000 products.
Results: For our case study analysis we selected two different process based models: the Environmental Policy
Integrated Climate (EPIC) and the Biosphere Energy Transfer Hydrology (BETHY/DLR) model. Both process models
show a congruent pattern to changes in input data. The annual variability of NPP reaches 36% for BETHY/DLR and
39% for EPIC when changing major input datasets. However, EPIC is less sensitive to meteorological input data
than BETHY/DLR. The ECMWF maximum temperatures show a systematic pattern. Temperatures above 20C are
overestimated, whereas temperatures below 20C are underestimated, resulting in an overall underestimation of
NPP in both models. Besides, BETHY/DLR is sensitive to the choice and accuracy of the land cover product.
Discussion: This study shows that the impact of input data uncertainty on modelling results need to be assessed:
whenever the models are applied under new conditions, local data should be used for both input and result
comparison.
Keywords: agricultural models, net primary productivity, EPIC, BETHY/DLR, land cover, weather
Background
Modelling the net carbon uptake by vegetation (Net Pri
mary Productivity, NPP) and estimating the yields of
agricultural plants have become important tools to
study the mechanisms of carbon exchange between the
atmosphere and vegetation, as well as issues of food
security. Different approaches are currently tracked
which can be grouped to their approaches how photo
synthesis is modelled.
Models describing the chemical, physical and plant
physiological processes of plant development and the
* Correspondence: markus.tum@dlr.de
1
Deutsches Zentrum fr Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Deutsches
Fernerkundungsdatenzentrum (DFD), Oberpfaffenhofen, D-82234 Wessling,
Germany
Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
2012 Tum et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in
any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Page 2 of 13
Methods
Biophysical process models
Page 3 of 13
Period used
Resolution of
space and time
Parameters used
Characteristics
References
Meteorology 2000-2003
weather stations;
daily
Precipitation;
Minimum
temperature;
Maximum
temperature;
Wind Speed;
Radiation;
Relative Humidity
Meteorology 2000-2003
Precipitation;
Minimum
temperature;
Maximum
temperature;
Wind Speed;
Radiation;
Relative Humidity
[32]
Meteorology 2000-2003
0.25; up to 4
times a day
Vegetation
Indices
2000-2003
1 km2 grid; 36
time steps per
year
Precipitation;
Time series of model re-analysis European Centre for Medium-Range
Minimum
(ERA-40)
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
temperature;
Maximum
temperature;
Wind Speed;
Cloud cover;
Soil Water Content
Leaf Area Index
Global coverage
Ple dObservation des Surfaces
(LAI)
continentales par TELdtection
(POSTEL)
Landcover
2000
[35,36]
Landcover
2000
1 ha grid, year
2000
[37]
Census
1999 Agrar
struktur
erhebung
Marchfeld sub
regions, year 1999
Agricultural land
use information;
Main soil type
distribution
[30,42]
Page 4 of 13
Figure 1 Map of the study area. The case study area Marchfeld
with the four sub-regions (upper figure), with underlying CORINE
land cover dataset 2000. Green pixels represent forest, red and
violet pixels urban areas, brown pixels shrub land, and yellow pixels
agricultural areas. The lower figure highlights the location of the
Marchfeld region. The red square represents the map extract of the
upper figure.
Table 2 General characteristics of the biophysical process models EPIC and BETHY/DLR.
BETHY/DLR
EPIC
Abbreviation
References
[4,12]
[7,22,23]
Model type
SVAT model
crop model
Time step
Daily
Up to < 1 day
plant and crop growth, heat and water balance, wind and water
erosion, nutrient cycling
General formulation to
compute NPP
Page 5 of 13
Page 6 of 13
Meteorological
input
Land cover
classification
Short
Name
BETHY/
DLR
ZAMG
CORINE 2000
BETHY(1)
ZAMG reallocated
CORINE 2000
BETHY(2)
ECMWF
CORINE 2000
BETHY(3)
ECMWF
GLC2000
BETHY(4)
ZAMG
EPIC(1)
ZAMG reallocated
EPIC(2)
ECMWF
EPIC(3)
EPIC
Page 7 of 13
Figure 2 Comparison of the model results. Comparison of the model results (NPP) of BETHY/DLR and EPIC for the four Marchfeld sub-regions
and the period 2000 to 2003. The nomenclature follows the scheme of table 3. Circles represent sub-region 1, triangles sub-region 2, crosses
sub-region 3 and diamonds sub-region 4.
Page 8 of 13
Page 9 of 13
Page 10 of 13
Figure 5 Validation of ECMWF meteorology. Comparison of the ECMWF time series of minimum and maximum temperatures as well as
precipitation with the corresponding daily measured data of the ZAMG stations Gross Enzersdorf and Schwechat in the period 2000 to 2003.
model setups with the ECMWF data show for all four
sub-regions a relative increase of NPP from 2000 to
2001 followed by a decrease in 2002 and again in 2003.
Conclusions
Net-Primary-Productivity (NPP) has been modelled
using the SVAT model BETHY/DLR and the biophysical
Figure 6 Annual sums of NPP for the study area. Annual sums
of NPP in kilotonnes carbon for the Marchfeld region in the period
2000 to 2003 simulated with the models BETHY/DLR and EPIC. The
nomenclature follows the scheme of table 2.
Page 11 of 13
Authors contributions
MT had the idea, provided the first draft for the design of the study and
was responsible for the BETHY/DLRs part. FS provided the idea of including
the EPIC model outputs for the study and carefully reviewed the manuscript
during each step of the production. IM, KG and ES contributed to the
analysis with their expertise, provided literature and developing ideas. All
authors read and approved the final version of the manuscript.
Page 12 of 13
Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Page 13 of 13
Cite this article as: Tum et al.: How sensitive are estimates of carbon
Research article 5:
Zusammenfassung
Die Portfoliooptimierung zur integrativen Bewertung von Bewirtschaf
tungsoptionen ist ein geeignetes Werkzeug, um Anpassungsstrategien
an den Klimawandel in der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion zu entwi
ckeln. Risiken fr Landwirte knnen diverse Quellen haben. In unserer
Analyse wurde das durch unsichere Wetterbedingungen entstehende
Risiko untersucht und durch stochastische Klimaszenarien abgebildet.
Zwei Portfoliomodelle wurden fr die Bewertung von Bewirtschaf
tungsoptionen in den Zeitperioden 2008-2020, 2021-2030 und 2031-2040
fr das Marchfeld angewandt: ein traditionelles nicht-lineares MeanVariance (E-V) Modell und ein Modell, welches als Risikoma den
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) verwendet. Die untersuchten
Ackerkulturen sind Mais, Winterweizen, Sonnenblume und Sommer
gerste mit unterschiedlichen Bewirtschaftungsverfahren. Die minimale
Bodenbearbeitung scheint in allen Portfolios auf. Der Portfolioanteil
von Winterweizen wird ber die Zeit z.T. von Sonnenblume substitu
iert. Unter Bercksichtigung von Umweltindikatoren (z.B. Bodenkoh
lenstoffvorrat, Nitratauswaschung) kehren sich die Anteile von Acker
kulturen und Bewirtschaftungsverfahren im Portfolio um, wobei auch
Mais einen kleinen Anteil einnimmt. Das E-V Modell zeigt mehr Diver
sifikation bezglich der Ackerkulturen, whrend das CVaR Modell
12
1. Introduction
Agricultural production is a dynamic process affected by different
sources of uncertainty, among the most essential being weather,
technology advancement, individual farming practices, and price
fluctuations in commodity markets. Assessing optimal crop
management is one instrument to develop adaptation strategies to
climate change in agricultural production. Portfolio optimization,
developed by MARKOWITZ (1952) is one of the methodologies to
identify optimal agricultural management options under risk. He
shows that as the allowed variance increases, the maximal expected
13
return also increases and all the optimal portfolios chosen from the
efficient frontier depend on the investors risk aversion level.
Alternatively, ROCKAFELLAR and URYASEV (2000) implemented a new
risk measure, namely the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) in their
portfolio analysis. In contrast to the variance of the returns used by
MARKOWITZ (1952), which describes the spread of a distribution, the
CVaR focuses on the tails of a distribution.
The impact of risk aversion on crop choice is therefore still a major
research question in development and agricultural economics. Further
applications of portfolio theory to risky decisions in agriculture can be
found in e.g. BARKLEY and PETERSON (2008) and LARSEN et al. (2009).
The aim of our study is to identify crop management portfolios for the
Marchfeld region by taking into account the uncertainties coming from
future stochastic climate change scenarios as done in BARKLEY and
PETERSON (2008). We consider two model types in this study, the
traditional non-linear E-V model (FREUND, 1956) and the model of the
Conditional Value at Risk (ROCKAFELLAR and URYASEV, 2000). Whereas
LARSEN et al. (2009), using a CVaR portfolio model, are interested in a
geographical diversification, we focus on crop management
diversification.
Both models optimize the portfolio using profit distributions as an
input and maximizing/minimizing an objective function. In the E-V
model risk aversion is introduced by a risk aversion parameter
discounting standard deviation in the objective function, whereas in
the CVaR model the risk aversion is represented by different
confidence levels of the profit distributions.
14
m ,i y m ,i p m c m
(1)
where are the profits in /ha, y are the simulated crop yields in t/ha,
p is the price in /t, and c are the variable costs in /ha for each time
period (2008-2020, 2021-2030, 2031-2040), the index m denotes the sites,
crops and crop management variants and i is the weather scenario
index.
The various profit distributions are input to the portfolio models (also
distributions on nitrate leaching and topsoil organic carbon contents
when considering environmental constraints). The output of our
portfolio optimizations are optimal shares of crops and crop
management variants in three time periods.
Before we present the portfolio models we provide the definition of
CVaR (ROCKAFELLAR and URYASEV, 2000). The Value at Risk (VaR)
captures extreme events providing information on the tail of a
distribution. The VaR of a portfolio is then the lowest amount such
that with specified probability level the portfolio loss will not
exceed . The CVaR is the conditional expectation of losses above that
amount . So, the VaR corresponds to the -percentile of the
distribution, whereas CVaR is the mean of the values exceeding VaR.
We consider two types of objective functions using different risk
measures. One maximizes the expected profits with a penalization of
standard deviation as described in the E-V model (FREUND, 1956). The
other one minimizes the expected value of losses exceeding a defined
15
URYASEV (2000).
Max xm E( m,i ) [
xm
m,i
1
N
(
m,i
m,i
E( m,i )) 2 ]1 / 2
(2)
1
u m,i
Min a
x,a,u
N (1 ) m,i
(3)
where u m,i 0 and u m,i ( y m,i p m c m )x m a i
1
( y m,i pm cm )xm R
N m,i
where um,i = [u1, u2, , uN]T R is an auxiliary variable, is a threshold
(with probability profits will not fall short of ), and is the
confidence level. Also, the portfolio shares have to sum up to 1, all xm
and um,i must be greater than or equal to zero and a constraint on
minimum expected profits, R, has to be fulfilled. In the experiments,
we employ values for this required expected profit R such that it is not
binding.
The CVaR and E-V approaches could, in the case where profit
distributions are non normal, lead to quite different optimal solutions
(ROCKAFELLAR and URYASEV, 2000). The choice of the risk measure
depends on how we assume the farmers to behave under risk.
Since we were interested in the portfolios of crops and crop
management variants with respect to increasing degrees of risk
aversion, we conducted the following experiments. In the E-V model,
we gradually increased the risk aversion parameter from zero (risk
16
neutral) to 2.5. In the CVaR model, we solved the problem for two
values of confidence levels: in the case where =75%, a farmer would
be assumed to be relatively indifferent to tail risk. Along the same
lines, requiring a 99% level of confidence can be interpreted as a
situation of relatively high loss-aversion. Finally, we included in both
models environmental constraints on nitrate leaching and topsoil
organic carbon (optional), whereby the thresholds are less than 2 kg/ha
for nitrate leaching and more than 55 t/ha for topsoil organic carbon.
However, we have not conducted extensive sensitivity analysis to
examine the impact of less and more stringent environmental
requirements yet.
17
constraints (Table 1), and the values of expected profits are very similar
over the risk measures in each time period. Furthermore, risk aversion
loses its impact on expected profits until 2040. Under environmental
constraints, the expected profits are even completely independent from
risk aversion level, because variability within profits does not differ
much.
In the following plot (Figure 1) we show portfolio shares for each time
period (2008-2020, 2021-2030, 2031-2040) for both the E-V model and
the CVaR model. RA (risk-averse; =2.5) and RN (risk-neutral; =0) are
the output shares of the E-V model, while CVaR 75 (75% confidence
level) and CVaR 99 (99% confidence level) are the output shares of the
CVaR model. The six-digit coding of management options in Figure 1
and 2 are: M for minimum tillage, R for reduced tillage, N/I for no
irrigation/irrigation, N/S for without straw removal or with straw
removal, 080/100/120 for fertilizer application rates of
80%/100%/120% of the recommended amounts. Straw is removed
from the fields only for winter wheat and spring barley, even at the
level of crop rotation corn/winter wheat/sunflower/spring barley.
The model results show that portfolios with minimum tillage are
optimal with different crop management alternatives. Spring barley is
never part of the optimal portfolio, and corn enters the portfolio only
when considering the environmental constraints. Irrigation does not
seem to become an interesting option under climate change, as the
marginal higher crop yields cannot compensate the higher production
costs. The standard diversification effect is observable: the more risk
averse a farmer, the more diversification occurs.
Without consideration of environmental constraints (Figure 1), the
relative share of winter wheat declines over the time periods, while the
share of sunflower increases in most cases. We found some deviations
between the results of the two models, which points to the fact that
profits are not normally distributed. For example, the CVaR model
produces the same pattern as the other model only when the
confidence level is very low. For cases with higher loss aversion, there
is diversification within winter wheat management variants and the
share of winter wheat rises in the second period. So, if a farmer is loss
averse then his portfolio contains only one crop, but he diversifies
more over management options.
18
Figure 1: Portfolio shares in each time period (period 1 to 3) and for each portfolio
model. Note: RA (risk-averse), RN (risk-neutral) concerne the E-V model, CVaR
75 (75% confidence level), CVaR 99 (99% confidence level) of CVaR model;
WWHT=winter wheat, SUNF=sunflower; 6-digit coding: M for minimum
tillage, R for reduced tillage, N/I for no irrigation/irrigation, N/S for without
straw removal or with straw removal, 080/100/120 for fertilizer application rates
of 80%/100%/120% of the recommended amounts.
4. Conclusion
We have analysed the impact of climate change on crop production
risks. The source of risk comes from stochastic climate change
scenarios. We have applied two portfolio models - a non-linear E-V
model and a CVaR model - using profit distributions which differ
among crops, crop managements and weather scenarios. The effects of
climate change lead to a decline in expected profits due to lower crop
yields (c.p.). The results show that the relative share of winter wheat is
19
20
IZAURRALDE, R.C., WILLIAMS, J., R., MCGILL, W.B., ROSENBERG, N.J. and QUIROGA,
M.C. (2006): Simulating soil C dynamics with EPIC: Model description and
testing against long-term data. Ecological Modelling 192(3-4): S 362-384.
LARSEN, R., VEDENOV, D. and LEATHAM, D. (2009): Enterprise-level risk assessment of
geographically diversified commercial farms: a copula approach, Southern
Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Atlanta, Georgia.
MARKOWITZ, H. (1952): The Utility of Wealth, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 60, S
151-158.
ROCKAFELLAR, R.T. and URYASEV, S. (2000): Optimization of Conditional Value-AtRisk, The Journal of Risk, 2: S 21-41.
STRAUSS, F., SCHMID, E., FORMAYER, H., MOLTCHANOVA, E. and WANG, X. (2009):
Climate Change and Likely Near Future Development of Ecological Indicators in
the Marchfeld Region of Lower Austria, submitted.
WILLIAMS, J.R. (1995): The EPIC Model, In: Singh, V.P. (eds.), Computer Models of
Watershed Hydrology, Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch,
Colorado, S 909-1000.
Addresses of authors
Mag. Franziska Strauss
Institute for Sustainable Economic Development
University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences
Feistmantelstrae 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria
Tel.: +43 1 47654 3666
eMail: franziska.strauss@boku.ac.at
Dr. Sabine Fuss
International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis
Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Tel.: +43 2236 807 550
eMail: fuss@iiasa.ac.at
Dr. Jana Szolgayov
International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis
Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Tel.: +43 2236 807 550
eMail: szolgay@iiasa.ac.at
PD DI Dr. Erwin Schmid
Institute for Sustainable Economic Development
University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences
Feistmantelstrae 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria
Tel.: +43 1 47654 3653
eMail: erwin.schmid@boku.ac.at
Research article 6:
Summary
Climate change will affect agricultural production through changes in
water supply, such that optimal irrigation management strategies gain
importance. For the Marchfeld region, we firstly analyze with a
stochastic dynamic programming approach the probability of investing
into either a water-saving drip or a sprinkler irrigation system until
2040. Secondly, we develop optimal irrigation management portfolios
for different degrees of risk aversion using climate data from a
statistical model and the simulations for specific crops of the
biophysical process model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated
Climate). Investment in drip irrigation systems is not profitable.
Sprinkler irrigation has a positive probability of being adopted for the
production of sugar beets and carrots and therefore mostly shows a
100% share in the portfolio optimization.
Keywords: Irrigation management, precipitation uncertainty, EPIC,
stochastic dynamic programming approach, Portfolio Optimization
Zusammenfassung
Aufgrund der unsicheren Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die
Wasserverfgbarkeit in der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion gewinnt
eine Analyse optimaler Bewsserungsmanagementstrategien auch in
der Region Marchfeld an Bedeutung. Wir analysieren mit einem stoch
astischen, dynamischen Programmierungsmodell die Wahrscheinlich-
46
1. Introduction
For Central and Southern Europe, it has been estimated that areas
under water stress can increase from 19% in 2007 to 35% in 2070 (IPCC,
2007). Therefore, it is crucial to assess optimal irrigation management
strategies. In the Marchfeld region, intensive agriculture has expanded
from the 1970s onwards, and has led to a decrease of the annual
groundwater level from the 1970s to the 1990s (STENITZER and HOESCH,
2005). Even though groundwater levels have recovered, the quality of
groundwater is affected negatively by excessive irrigation which can
increase nitrate leaching into groundwater (STENITZER, 2004).
Currently, only sprinkler irrigation systems are used in Marchfeld.1
However, drip irrigation systems allow for a precise application of
water and have the potential to increase crop yields (WARD and
PULIDO-VELAZQUEZ, 2008). Therefore, it might be viable to adopt drip
irrigation systems in the Marchfeld in the future.2
As drip irrigation is usually capital intensive, a farmer might be
reluctant to invest when facing production uncertainty arising from
weather uncertainty. We apply a stochastic dynamic programming
approach to examine the probability of investing in a water-efficient
drip or a less water-efficient sprinkler irrigation system. We assume
that farmers are uncertain about which annual precipitation sum will
47
2. Data
The biophysical process model EPIC provides annual outputs on, inter
alia, dry matter crop and straw yields, nitrogen emissions, and soil
organic carbon contents. The outputs are mainly based on five thematic
datasets: land use, topography, soil, cropland management and
weather. Cereals are the most important crops in Marchfeld, but also
vegetables are commonly cultivated. Therefore, we simulate bio
physical impacts of five crops (winter wheat, sugar beets, potatoes,
corn, and carrots) which cover more than 50% of the agricultural land.
We concentrate on the most frequent soil type (covering ~50% of the
region), a Chernozem from fine sediment and loess formation with
available soil water capacity of 196 mm as well as topsoil humus con
tents of 2.6%. The statistical climate change model generates weather
scenarios via bootstrapping for 2008-2040, based on in-situ weather
observations from 1975 to 2007 (provided by the Central Institute for
Meteorology and Geodynamics). In the period 1975-2007, the average
annual maximum/ minimum temperature was 14.8 C / 6.1 C, which
48
49
3. Method
3.1 The stochastic dynamic programming approach
In the dynamic programming model, the farmer decides in each year of
the planning period whether to invest into a drip or sprinkler irrigation
system and whether to operate the installed system. Investment in
irrigation systems is a long-term investment. We assume that a farmer
bases his investment decision on his expectation about how annual
precipitation will develop over the years 2009-2040. We further assume
that in each year 300 possible realizations occur with equal probability.
Once the system has been installed, the farmer can decide whether to
operate the irrigation system or not from the following year onwards
depending on his daily information about rainfall. We denote xt {0,1,2}
the state of the system in year t, 0 implying that until period t no
irrigation system has been built; 1 that drip has been built; and 2 that
sprinkler has been built prior to period t. The investment and
operational decisions in year t are denoted as at and ut. Both can be
chosen from the set {0, 1, 2}, where 0 means that no investment is made
/ the irrigation system is not switched on; 1 that drip irrigation is
adopted / drip is switched on; and 2 that sprinkler irrigation is
adopted / sprinkler is switched on. If a system has already been
installed, no further investment is possible, atxt=0. The state of the
system in the next year is determined by the current state and the
50
(1)
c x t at a _Capc x t at a _well x t at
(2)
The components of the operational profit include parameters assumed
c
to be constant over time: p , the constant commodity price for each
crop; c, the hourly wage; pe, the cost of electricity per kWh; pn, the price
of fertilizer; and Varc, the variable production costs per crop. The
remaining components vary by operational decision and the respective
annual precipitation sums, including: y(u, tn ) , the crop yields used for
the revenue; c_Lh, the labor requirement per crop; qie (ut ,Pt ) , the energy
cost per irrigation system; i _Lhu, tn , the annual labor requirement for
irrigation activity; and qin (ut ,Pt ) , the annual amount of nitrogen
fertilizer used. The annualized fixed cost of the respective irrigation
systems is the sum of the annualized capital cost, a_Capc(xt+at), and the
annualized cost of building a well, a_well(xt+at).
The problem of the farmer can be formulated as an optimization
problem of timing his investment decisions, at, and choosing
operational action, ut, so that the expected sum of profits over the
planning period is maximized (equation 3). The discount rate is given
by r, and e-rt is the discount factor.
31
t1
s.t.
xt 1 xt at ;t 1,...,31
x1 0
xt at 0;t 1,...,31
ut 0, xt ;t 1,...,31
Pt ~ U ( t1 ,..., t300 );t 1,...,31
(3)
51
Min a
s ,a ,v
N(1 )
v
m ,w
m ,w
where v m ,w 0 and v m ,w m ,w sm a w
1
N
m ,w sm
(4)
m ,w
52
4. Results
Results of the analysis with the stochastic dynamic programming appr
oach show that farmers will never invest into a drip irrigation system.
The probability that sprinkler irrigation is adopted for production of
carrots and sugar beets is 100% in year 2024. Vegetables and sugar
beets are the most irrigated crops in the Marchfeld region. According
to our climate scenarios, year 2025 marks a decrease in annual
precipitation sums by 15% on all randomly drawn precipitation sums.
Figure 1: Optimal irrigation portfolios for winter wheat, sugar beets, carrots,
potatoes and corn, for risk neutrality and risk aversion in three time periods
Source: own calculations
53
5. Conclusions
In both models, we observe similar results in optimal irrigation
investment and management. The stochastic dynamic programming
approach shows a zero probability for drip irrigation investment; the
portfolio model shows that drip irrigation is never part in an optimal
management portfolio under both risk neutrality and risk aversion.
Analyzing the profits (Table 1), we see that average profits of drip
irrigation are always lower than of sprinkler irrigation and no
irrigation. From a resource point of view, a low utilization of irrigation
systems implies that groundwater resources can recover from
exploitation. On the other hand, the potential of irrigated agriculture
cannot be exploited and less is produced on cropland. Thus, future
research should be directed towards policy measures, e.g. imple
mentation of water prices or equipment subsidies which can increase
the probability of adopting drip irrigation systems. It must also be kept
in mind that the model is run on a site scale, and economics of scale of
irrigation investment, have not been taken into account so far.
Acknowledgements
This research has been carried out under the FP7 projects EuroGEOSS,
ccTAME and PASHMINA. We thank Bernhard Strmer, BOKU, for data
provision.
54
References
BMLFUW (2008): Deckungsbeitrge und Daten fr die Betriebsplanung 2008. Wien.
CHRISTENSEN, J. and CHRISTENSEN, O. (2007): A summary of the PRUDENCE model
projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century. Climatic
Change, 81, pp. 7-30.
FIRMA BAUER (2010): Personal communication, April 2010. URL: http://www.bauer
at.com/
FIRMA PARGA (2010): Personal communication, April 2010. URL: http://www.parga
online.de/
IPCC (2007): Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and II to the 4th
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva.
IZAURRALDE, R. C., WILLIAMS, J. R, MCGILL, W. B., ROSENBERG, N. J., and QUIROGA, M.
C. (2006): Simulating soil C dynamics with EPIC: Model description and testing
against long-term data. Ecological Modelling 192, 3-4, pp. 362-384.
ROCKAFELLAR, R. T. and URYASEV, S. (2000): Optimization of Conditional Value-AtRisk, The Journal of Risk, 2, pp. 21-41.
STENITZER, E. (2004): Anmerkungen zur praktischen Bewsserung im Marchfeld aus
wasserwirtschaftlicher Sicht, Landwirtschaft und Grundwasserschutz 2.
3.3.2004, HBLFA-BAL. Irdning.
STENITZER, E. and HOESCH, J. (2005): Grundwasserneubildung im Marchfeld
Lysimetermessungen und Modellrechnungen, 11. Gumpensteiner Lysimeter
tagung, 5.-6.4.2005, HBLFA-BAL. Irdning.
STRAUSS, F., FORMAYER, H., ASAMER, V., and SCHMID, E. (2010): Climate change data
for Austria and the period 2008-2040 with one day and km resolution, DP-48
2010, Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural
Resources and Life Sciences Vienna. Vienna.
WARD, F. A. and PULIDO-VELAZQUEZ, M. (2008): Water conservation in irrigation can
increase water use. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105, pp.
18215-18220.
Affiliations
Mag. Franziska Strauss, Mag. Christine Heumesser, Prof. DI Dr. Erwin Schmid
Institute for Sustainable Economic Development
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna
Feistmantelstrae 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria
Tel.: +43 1 47654 3670
franziska.strauss@boku.ac.at, christine.heumesser@boku.ac.at, erwin.schmid@boku.ac.at
Dr. Sabine Fuss, Dr. Jana Szolgayov
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Tel.: +43 2236 807 0
fuss@iiasa.ac.at, szolgay@iiasa.ac.at
Research article 7:
Zusammenfassung
Derzeit werden in sterreich 1.335 ha Ackerflchen als Kurzumtriebs
flchen deklariert (STATISTIK AUSTRIA, 2009). Plne von Landesregie
rungen und Bioenergieproduzenten zum Ausbau von Kurzumtriebs
flchen lassen eine weitere Zunahme erwarten. Die konomischen und
umweltbedingten Auswirkungen einer groflchigen Pappelprodukti
on werden im Rahmen einer integrierten Landnutzungsanalyse unter
sucht. Modellergebnisse zeigen, dass die hchsten Deckungsbei
tragsannuitten in der Pappelproduktion mit dreijhrigen Umtriebsin
tervallen zu erzielen sind. Zur Abschtzung des konomischen Poten
zials flieen die Deckungsbeitragsannuitten der Pappelproduktion
und der regional blichen Fruchtfolgen in das rumlich explizite Bio
masseoptimierungsmodell BiomAT ein, was die Grenzopportunitts
kosten der Pappelproduktion bestimmt. Die umweltbedingten Aus
wirkungen zeigen, dass sich der Bodenkohlenstoffvorrat im Acker
oberboden bei einem groflchigen Pappelanbau kaum ndern, wh
rend sich die gesamten Stickstoffemissionen deutlich verringern wr
den.
Schlagworte: Kurzumtriebsflchen, groflchiger Pappelanbau, Gren
zopportunittskosten, integrierte Landnutzungsanalyse, BiomAT
42
Summary
In 2009, about 1.335 ha croplands have been declared as short-rotation
plantations in Austria (STATISTIK AUSTRIA, 2009). Federal state govern
ments and producers of bioenergy plan to expand these areas. We as
sess the economic and environmental effects of large-scale poplar plan
tations on croplands in Austria using the integrated biomass optimiza
tion model BiomAT. The model results show that the highest gross
margin annuities deliver poplar plantations in three-year rotations.
Economic potentials of large-scale poplar plantations have been as
sessed in a marginal opportunity cost framework by comparing gross
margin annuities of poplar production and crop rotations. The assess
ment of environmental effects of polar production shows that topsoil
organic carbon contents of croplands do not change whereas total ni
trogen emissions could be reduced significantly.
Keywords: short-rotation poplar plantations, marginal opportunity
costs assessment, integrated land use analysis, BiomAT
1. Einleitung
Durch die steigende Nachfrage nach Energie aus erneuerbaren Ener
gietrgern wird der Energieholzproduktion auf Ackerflchen ein be
deutendes Potenzial zuerkannt. Einzelne Bundeslnder planen einen
weiteren Ausbau von Kurzumtriebsflchen. In sterreich knnen vor
allem Weide und Pappel im Kurzumtrieb hohe jhrliche Zuwachsleis
tungen bringen (MYLIUS, 1990). Um eine kostengnstige maschinelle
Ernte zu ermglichen, ist es notwendig grere Schlge mit geringer
Hangneigung zu bepflanzen. Die Ernte mit Feldhcksler ist nur im
zwei- bis maximal dreijhrigen Umtriebsintervall mglich. Fr hhere
Umtriebsintervalle kann derzeit nur mit einem Harvester oder motor
manuell geerntet werden.
In sterreich wurden in den letzten Jahren mehrere wissenschaftliche
Untersuchungen zum Potenzial von Biomasse in der Energiewirtschaft
erstellt (BRAINBOWS, 2007; EEA, 2006; KLETZAN et al. 2008). Diese Stu
dien betrachten jedoch das Potenzial an heimischer Biomasse als eine
naturwissenschaftlich-technische Fragestellung und behandeln die
damit verbundenen Opportunittskosten nur am Rande oder gar nicht.
Die Produktion der Biomasse fr energetische Zwecke steht jedoch
43
44
45
(A
(A
(c
h,i xh,i )
h,i
h,i xh,i ) bh
fr alle h
(1)
h,e xh,e ) s
h,e
xh,i 0
46
len der Anbau mit und ohne Dngung Vorzug erhalten. Bei den bri
gen Flchen dominiert das zehnjhrige Umtriebsintervall. Die hchsten
durchschnittlichen jhrlichen Pappelzuwchse werden mit der ge
dngten dreijhrigen Bewirtschaftungsvariante erzielt. Wrden die
1,2 Mio. ha Ackerflche komplett mit der zuwachsstrksten Umtriebsund Dngungsvariante bewirtschaftet werden, kann mit einem durch
schnittlichen jhrlichen Zuwachs von ca. 6,4 Mio. tatro pro Jahr gerech
net werden. Wird hingegen die gesamte Ackerflche mit der de
ckungsbeitragsstrksten Bewirtschaftungsvariante bepflanzt, ergibt
sich ein maximal jhrlicher Zuwachs von ca. 6,2 Mio. tatro pro Jahr.
47
48
4. Fazit
Die vorliegenden Berechnungen zeigen, dass die hchsten jhrlichen
Zuwchse (>6.5 tatro/ha) in stlichen und sdlichen Teilen sterreichs
49
Literatur
BMLFUW Bundesministerium fr Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Umwelt und Was
serwirtschaft (2008a): INVEKOS-Daten Integriertes Verwaltung- und Kontroll
system, Wien.
50