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SampleProposalsfortheUndergraduateEngineeringReview
Contents:
Proposal#1
Proposal#2
ProposalLinks:
Proposals
ProposalRequest
ProposalChecklist
UER

Beforeanarticle,report,orbriefisacceptedintothe
UndergraduateEngineeringReview,theauthormust
firstsubmitaproposalthatspecifiestheimportanceof
theresearch,thescopeandlimitationsoftheresearch,
andthemethodsfortheresearch.Submittersshould
readthejournal'sRequestforProposalsbefore
submitting.

AProposaltoResearchtheStorageFacility
forSpentNuclearFuelatYuccaMountain
RogerBloom
October1997

Introduction
Nuclearpowerplantsproducemorethan20percentoftheelectricityusedinthe
UnitedStates[Murray,1989].Unfortunately,nuclearfission,theprocessusedto
createthislargeamountenergy,createssignificantamountsofhighlevel
radioactivewaste.Morethan30,000metrictonsofnuclearwastehavearisenfrom
U.S.commercialreactorsaswellashighlevelnuclearweaponswaste,suchas
uraniumandplutonium[Roush,1995].Becauseofthebuildupofthiswaste,some
powerplantswillbeforcedtoshutdown.Toavoidlosinganimportantsourceof
energy,asafeandeconomicalplacetokeepthiswasteisnecessary.Thisdocument
proposesaliteraturereviewofwhetherYuccaMountainisasuitablesitefora
nuclearwasterepository.Theproposedreviewwilldiscusstheeconomicaland
environmentalaspectsofanationalstoragefacility.Thisproposalincludesmy
methodsforgatheringinformation,ascheduleforcompletingthereview,andmy
qualifications.

StatementofProblem
OnJanuary1,1998,theDepartmentofEnergy(DOE)mustacceptspentnuclear
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fuelfromcommercialplantsforpermanentstorage[Clark,1997].However,the
DOEisundecidedonwheretoputthishighlevelradioactivewaste.Yucca
Mountain,locatedinNevada,isaproposedsite.
TherearemanyquestionsregardingthesafetyoftheYuccaMountainwaste
repository.ResearchersatLosAlamosNationalLaboratorydisagreeoverthelong
termsafetyoftheproposedhighlevelnuclearwastesitelocatedinNevada.In
1994,CharlesBowman,aresearcheratLosAlamos,developedatheoryclaiming
thatyearsofstoringwasteinthemountainmayactuallystartanuclearchain
reactionandexplode,similartoanatomicbomb[Taubes,1995].Thestircausedby
theorysuggeststhatresearchershavenotexploredallsidesofthesafetyissue
concerningpotentiallyhazardoussituationsatYuccaMountain.
Bowman'stheorythatYuccaMountaincouldexplodeisbasedupontheideathat
enoughwastewilleventuallydispersethroughtherocktocreateacriticalmass.A
criticalmassisanamountoffissilematerial,suchasplutonium,containingenough
masstostartaneutronchainreaction[Murray,1989].Bowmanarguesthatifthis
chainreactionwerestartedunderground,therocksinthegroundwouldhelpkeep
thesystemcompressedandspeedupthechainreaction[Taubes,1995].Achain
reactionformedundergroundcouldthengeneratehugeamountsofenergyina
fractionofasecond,resultinginanuclearblast.Anuclearexplosionofthis
magnitudewouldemitlargeamountsofradioactivityintotheairandgroundwater.
AnothersafetyconcernisthepossibilityofavolcaniceruptioninYuccaMountain.
Thelongtermnuclearwastestoragefacilityneedstoremainstableforatleast
10,000yearstoallowtheradioactiveisotopestodecaytonaturallevels[Clark,
1997].Thereareatleastadozenyoungvolcanoeswithin40kilometersofthe
proposedYuccaMountainwastesite[Weiss,1996].TheproximityofYucca
Mountaintothesevolcanoesmakesitpossibletohaveavolcaniceruptionpass
throughthespentfuelwasterepository.Suchavolcaniceruptioncouldrelease
damagingamountsofradioactivitytotheenvironment.

Objectives
IproposetoreviewtheavailableliteratureaboutusingYuccaMountainasa
possiblerepositoryforspentnuclearfuel.InthisreviewIwillachievethe
followingtwogoals:
(1)explainthecriteriaforasuitablerepositoryofhighlevelradioactivewasteand
(2)determinewhetherYuccaMountainmeetsthesecriteria.
AccordingtotheDepartmentofEnergy(DOE),arepositoryforhighlevel
radioactivewastemustmeetseveralcriteriaincludingsafety,location,and
economics[Roush,1995].Safetyincludesnotonlytheeffectoftherepositoryon
peoplenearthesite,butalsopeoplealongthetransportationroutestothesite.In
myresearchIwillconsiderbothgroupsofpeople.Asfaraslocation,awastesite
cannotbeinanareawithalargepopulationornearagroundwatersupply.Also,
becauseoneofthemostsignificantfactorsindeterminingthelifespanofa
possiblerepositoryishowlongthewastestoragecanisterswillremainintact,the
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wastesitemustbelocatedinadryclimatetoeliminatethemoisturethatcancause
thewastecanisterstocorrode.Theeconomicsinvolvedinselectingasiteis
anothercriterion.Atpresent,theDepartmentofEnergy(DOE)hasspentmorethan
1.7billiondollarsontheYuccaMountainproject[Taubes,1995].Forthatreason,
muchpressureexiststoselectYuccaMountainasarepositorysiteotherwise,this
moneywouldhavebeenwasted.Othercosts,though,havetobeconsidered.For
instance,howeconomicalisittotransportradioactivewasteacrossseveralstates
toasinglenationalsite?Iwilltrytoaccountforasmanyoftheseothercostsas
possible.
Afterexplainingthecriteria,IwillassesshowwellYuccaMountainmeetsthose
criteria.Inthisassessment,Iwillnotassignanumericalscoreforeachcriterion.
Rather,IwilldiscussqualitativelyhowwellYuccaMountainmeetseachcriterion.
Insomesituations,disagreementexistsamongexpertsastohowwellYucca
Mountainmeetsacriterion.Insuchcases,Iwillpresentbothsides.Inthis
assessment,onlyYuccaMountainwillbeconsideredasapossiblesite.Although
manysitesintheUnitedStatescouldmeettheDOE'sestablishedcriteria,Iwill
consideronlyYuccaMountainbecausetheDOEisconsideringonlyYucca
Mountain[Taube,1995].

PlanofAction
Thissectionpresentsmyplanforobtainingtheobjectivesdiscussedintheprevious
section.Therehasbeenanincreaseofinterestinthenuclearindustryconcerning
theYuccaMountainsitebecauseoftheJanuary1,1998,deadlinefortheDOE.
SeveraljournalarticlesandpapersdiscussingthepossibilityofYuccaMountainas
aspentfuelrepositoryinournearfuturehavesurfacedasaconsequenceofthat
interest.Thesearticlesandbooksaboutthedangersofnuclearwasteshould
providesufficientinformationformetocompletemyreview.Thefollowingtwo
paragraphswilldiscusshowIwillusethesesourcesinmyresearch.
Thefirstgoalofmyresearchistoexplainthecriteriafordeterminingwhethera
nuclearwasterepositoryissuitable.Forexample,willtherockstructurebeableto
withstandhumaninvasioninthefuture[Clark,1997]?Whatwillhappenifthe
wastecontainerscorrodeanddonotlastaslongaspredicted?Willthenatural
settingcontainthewaste?Toachievethisgoal,Iwillrelyon"Backgroundon40
CFRPart197EnvironmentalStandardsforYuccaMountain"[Clark,1997],the
DOEYuccaMountainhomepage[1997],andthebookUnderstandingRadioactive
Waste[Murray,1989].
AsecondgoalofmyliteraturereviewistoevaluateYuccaMountainmeetsthose
criteria.Iwillbasemyevaluationonthesourcesmentionedaboveaswellas
specificEnvironmentalProtectionAgencystandards.Ialsointendtoresearchthe
validityofpossibleenvironmentaldisasters,suchastheexplosiontheory.To
accomplishthisgoal,IwillrelyonthepaperpresentedbyClark[1997],andonthe
bookBlowupatYuccaMountain[Taubes,1995].
Becauseengineeringstudentsaretheprimaryaudienceformyproposedresearch
topicandmaynotbefamiliarwiththehistoryofnuclearwaste,Iwillprovidea
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backgroundonpastmethodsusedforwastestorage.Peopleinthenuclearfield
withsomeknowledgeofthewasteproblemfacingtheindustrymaybeasecondary
audience.

ManagementPlan
Thissectionpresentsmyschedule,costs,andqualificationsforcompletingthe
proposedresearch.Thisresearchculminatesinaformalreport,whichwillbe
completedbyDecember5,1997.Toreachthisgoal,Iwillfollowtheschedule
presentedinFigure1.SinceIalreadypossessliteratureonthesubjectofYucca
Mountainasanuclearwastesite,mostofmytimewillbespentsortingthroughthe
literaturetofindkeyresults,andpresentingthoseresultstotheaudience.

Figure1.Scheduleforcompletionoftheliteraturereview.Theformalpresentation
willbeonOctober27,andtheformalreportwillbecompletedbyDecember5.

GiventhatallmysourcesareavailablethroughtheUniversityofWisconsinlibrary
system,thereisnoappreciablecostassociatedwithperformingthisreview,unless
onetakesintoconsiderationtheamountoftuitionspentonmaintainingthe
universitylibraries.Theonlyotherminorcostsarephotocopyingarticles,creating
transparenciesformypresentation,printingmyreport,andbindingmyreport.I
estimatetheseexpenseswillnotexceed$20.
IamaseniorintheEngineeringPhysicsDepartmentattheUniversityof
WisconsinatMadison,majoringinnuclearengineeringandphysics.Ihavetaken
severalclassesrelatedtonuclearwaste,economics,andenvironmentalstudies.I
believethatthesecourseswillaidmeinpreparingtheproposedreview.Forfurther
informationaboutmyqualifications,seetheattachedresume.

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Conclusion
Morethan30,000metrictonsofnuclearwastehavearisenfromU.S.commercial
reactorsaswellashighlevelnuclearweaponswaste,suchasuraniumand
plutonium[Roush,1995].Thisdocumenthasproposedresearchtoevaluatethe
possibilityofusingYuccaMountainasapossiblerepositoryforthisspentnuclear
fuel.Theproposedresearchwillachievethefollowinggoals:(1)explainthe
criterianecessarytomakeasuitablehighlevelradioactivewasterepository,and
(2)determineifYuccaMountainmeetsthesecriteria.Theresearchwillincludea
formalpresentationonNovember11andaformalreportonDecember5.

References
Clark,RaymondL.,"Backgroundon40CFRPart197EnvironmentalRadiation
ProtectionStandardsforYuccaMountain,"Proceedingsofthe1997Waste
ManagementConference(Washington,D.C.:U.S.EnvironmentalProtection
Agency,1997).
Kerr,R.,"NewWaytoAsktheExperts:RatingRadioactiveWasteRisks,"
Science,vol.274,(November1996),pp.913914.
Murray,RaymondL.,UnderstandingNuclearWaste(BattellePress,1989).
Roush,W.,"CanNuclearWasteKeepYuccaMountainDryandSafe?"Science,
vol.270,(December1995),pp.17611762.
Taubes,G.,"BlowupatYuccaMountain,"Science,vol.268,(June1995),pp.1836
1839.
BacktoTop

AProposaltoReviewHowGeophysicalPrecursors
CanHelpPredictEarthquakes
ChristopherGray
February1995

Introduction
Throughouttheworld,devastatingearthquakesoccurwithlittleornoadvance
warning.Someoftheseearthquakeskillhundredsofpeople.Ifthetimes,
magnitudes,andlocationsoftheseearthquakescouldbeaccuratelypredicted,
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manylivescouldbesaved.Thisdocumentproposesareviewofhowmonitoring
geophysicalprecursorscanhelpintheshorttermpredictionofearthquakes.The
proposedreviewwilldiscussthephysicalprinciplesbehindthemonitoringofthree
commonprecursorsandevaluatehowaccurateeachmonitoringisinpredicting
earthquakes.Includedinthisproposalaremymethodsforgatheringinformation,a
scheduleforcompletingthereview,andmyqualifications.

JustificationofProposedReview
OnthemorningofApril18,1906,thepopulationofSanFranciscowasawakened
byviolentshakingandbytheroarcausedbythewrithingandcollapsingof
buildings[Hodgson,1964].Thegroundappearedtobethrownintowavesthat
twistedrailwaysandbrokethepavementintogreatcracks.Manybuildings
collapsed,whileotherswereseverelydamaged.Theearthquakecausedfiresin
fiftyormorepointsthroughoutthecity.Firestationsweredestroyed,alarmswere
putoutofcommission,andwatermainswerebroken.Asaresult,thefiresquickly
spreadthroughoutthecityandcontinuedforthreedays.Thefiresdestroyeda5
squaremilesectionattheheartofthecity[MiletiandFitzpatrick,1993].Even
moredisastrouswastheKwantoearthquakeinJapanthatdevastatedthecitiesof
YokohamaandTokyoonSeptember1,1923[Hodgson,1993].InYokohama,over
50percentofthebuildingsweredestroyed[Bolt,1993],andasmanyas208fires
brokeoutandspreadthroughthecity[Hodgson,1964].Whenthedisasterwas
over,33,000peopleweredead[Bolt,1993].InTokyo,thedamagefromthe
earthquakewasless,buttheresultingfiresweremoredevastating.Thefireslasted
threedaysanddestroyed40percentofthecity[Hodgson,1964].Afterthefire,
68,000peopleweredeadand1millionpeoplewerehomeless[Bolt,1993].
The1906SanFranciscoearthquakeandtheKwantoearthquakeweretwoofthe
mostfamousanddevastatingearthquakesofthiscentury.Theseearthquakesstruck
withoutwarningandwithdisastrousresults.Ifearthquakescouldbepredicted,
peoplewouldbeabletoevacuatefrombuildings,bridges,andoverpasses,where
mostdeathsoccur.
Someearthquakeshavebeensuccessfullypredicted.Oneofthemostfamous
predictionswastheHaichengPredictioninChina.In1970,Chinesescientists
targetedtheLiaoningProvinceasasitewithpotentialforalargeearthquake.These
scientistsfeltthatanearthquakewouldoccurtherein1974or1975.OnDecember
20,1974,anearthquakewarningwasissued.Twodayslater,amagnitude4.8
earthquakestrucktheLiaoningProvincehowever,furthermonitoringsuggesteda
largerearthquakewasimminent[Miletiandothers,1981].OnFebruary4,1975,
theChineseissuedawarningthatanearthquakewouldstrikeHaichengwithin24
hours[Bolt,1993].ThepeopleinHaichengwereevacuated,andabout5.5hours
later,amagnitude7.3earthquakeshookthecityofHaicheng.Ifthepeoplehadn't
beenevacuated,thedeathtollcouldhaveexceeded100,000.
Usinggeophysicalprecursors,theChinesehavepredictedmorethanten
earthquakeswithmagnitudesgreaterthan5.0[Meyer,1977].Forexample,the
Chinesepredictedapairofearthquakesofmagnitude6.9thatoccurred97minutes
apartinYunnanonMay19,1976[Bolt,1993].Despitethesesuccesses,the
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ChinesefailedtopredicttheearthquakethatstruckthecityofTangshanonJuly
27,1976thisearthquakekilled250,000peopleandinjured500,000more[Bolt,
1988].Thisearthquakewasn'tcompletelyunexpected,buttheChinesebelievedit
tobeafewyearsaway.Otherearthquakeshavebeenpredicted,butthepredictions
didn'thaveenoughprecisionforwarningstobeissued.Forexample,in1983,a
younggeophysicistpredictedthatanearthquakeofmagnitude8wouldstrike
MexicoCitywithinfouryears[Deshpande,1987].Twoyearslater,anearthquake
ofmagnitude8didstrikeMexicoCity.Becausethepredictionwasnotmore
precise,nowarningwasissuedandtheearthquaketookthepopulationofMexico
Citybysurprise.Otherpredictionshaveturnedouttobefalsewarnings.For
example,anearthquakewarningwasissuedinAugust1976nearHongKong[Bolt,
1988].Duringtheearthquakealert,peoplesleptoutdoorsfortwomonths.No
earthquakeoccurred.

Objectives
Iproposetoreviewtheavailableliteratureonhowgeophysicalprecursorscanbe
usedforshorttermpredictionsofearthquakes.Inthisreview,Iwillachievethe
followingthreegoals:
1. explainthreecommonlymonitoredgeophysicalprecursors:grounduplift
andtilt,increasesinradonemissions,andchangesintheelectricalresistivity
ofrocks
2. showwhathappenstoeachoftheseprecursorsduringthefivestagesofan
earthquakeand
3. discusshoweachoftheseprecursorsisusedforshorttermearthquake
predictions.
Geophysicalprecursorsarechangesinthephysicalstateoftheearththatare
precursorytoearthquakes.Inadditiontomonitoringgeophysicalprecursors,there
areotherstrategiesforpredictingearthquakesinparticular,analyzingstatistical
dataonpriorearthquakes.Analyzingstatisticaldataonpriorearthquakes,however,
issolelyalongtermpredictiontechnique[Bolt,1993].Forthatreason,Iwillnot
considerit.
Inmyreview,Iwilldiscussthreecommongeophysicalprecursors:grounduplift
andtilt,increasesinradonemissions,andchangesintheelectricalresistivityof
rocks.Earthquakesoccurinfivestagesasthereisabuildupofelasticstrainwithin
faultsintheearth,followedbythedevelopmentofcracksintherocks,thenthe
influxofwaterintothosecracks.Thefourthstageistheactualruptureofthefault
andthereleaseofseismicwaves.Thefifthstageisthesuddendropinstressinthe
fault.Inthisstage,aftershocksoccur.
Duringthesefivestages,thegeophysicalprecursorsfollowdistinctpatterns.For
instance,thegroundupliftandtiltincreasesduringthesecondstageasthevolume
ofrockincreases.Inmyreview,Iwillrelatehowthethreegeophysicalprecursors
relatetothefivestagesofanearthquakeandhowwellthisrelationcanbeusedto
predicttheoncomingfaultrupture.
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PlanofAction
Thissectionpresentsmyplanforobtainingtheobjectivesdiscussedintheprevious
section.BecauseoftherecentearthquakesinCaliforniaandJapan,therehasarisen
astronginteresttopredictearthquakesprecisely.Asaconsequenceofthatstrong
interest,manybooksandjournalshavebeenwrittenonearthquakesandearthquake
prediction.Ihavegatheredfivebooksandseveralarticlesonthesubject.In
addition,therearedozensofbooksandarticlesavailableinthelibrary.These
booksandarticlesshouldprovidesufficientinformationformetowritemyreview.
ThefollowingparagraphsdiscusshowIwillusethesesourcesinmyresearch.
Thefirstgoalofmyresearchistoexplainthephysicalprinciplesbehind
monitoringgeophysicalprecursors.Forexample,whydoestheelectricalresistivity
ofrocksdecreasebeforeanoncomingearthquake?Or,whatdoesasuddenincrease
inradonemissionsrevealaboutthefuturelikelihoodofamassiveearthquake?The
secondgoalofmyresearchistoshowwhathappenstoeachoftheseprecursors
duringthefivestagesofanearthquake.Toachievethesetwogoals,Iwillrelyon
threebooksthatgiveanoverviewtoearthquakeprediction:Earthquakes[Bolt,
1988],EarthquakesandGeologicalDiscovery[Bolt,1993],andEarthquakesand
EarthStructure[Hodgson,1964].
Athirdprimarygoaloftheliteraturereviewistocovertheaccuracyofmonitoring
eachprecursor.Byaccuracy,Imeanhowwelldoesthemethodworkinpredicting
thetime,place,andsizeofearthquakes.Thisdiscussionwillnotincludemany
statisticsonthepredictionsofearthquakes,becauseatpresenttherejusthaven't
beenenoughsuccessfulpredictionstovalidatethesetypesofstatistics.Instead,I
intendtoevaluatethepotentialaccuracyofmonitoringeachprecursorbasedonthe
opinionsofexpertsandpreliminarydata.Toachievethisgoal,Iwillrelyontwoof
mymostrecentsources:TheGreatEarthquakeExperiment[MiletiandFitzpatrick,
1993]andEarthquakesandGeologicalDiscovery[Bolt,1993].
ShouldIrequireadditionalsourcesotherthantheonesIhave,Iwillsearchfor
theminthelibrarysystemattheUniversityofWisconsin.ShouldInotbeableto
findthatinformation,Iwillmodifythescopeofmyresearchaccordingly.
Becausetheprimaryreadersformyproposedliteraturereviewareengineering
studentswhoareprobablynotfamiliarwiththetheoriesbehindearthquakes,Iwill
havetoprovideselectedbackgroundinformationfrommysources.These
engineeringstudentsalreadyknowthatearthquakesaredevastating.Theyalso
knowthatifearthquakescouldbepredicted,peoplewouldbeabletopreparefor
themandliveswouldbesaved.However,theymaynotknowthedifferent
methodsofpredictingearthquakes.Myintentistoinformthesestudentsofthree
methodsofpredictingearthquakes.
Asecondaryaudienceforthereviewwouldbenontechnicalreaderswhoeither
liveinearthquakeproneareasorareaffectedfinanciallywhenearthquakesoccur.
Myproposedliteraturereviewwillprovidethisgroupwithanunbiaseddiscussion
ofthreemethodsforearthquakeprediction.Thisdiscussion,drawingmuchfrom
overviewchaptersinEarthquakes,AnimalsandMan[Deshpande,1987]and
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CaliforniaQuake[Meyer,1977],willputintoperspectivehowaccurate,or
inaccurate,thenamedmethodsareandwhathurdlesfaceengineerswhotryto
predictearthquakes.

ManagementPlan
Thissectionpresentsmyschedule,costs,andqualificationsforperformingthe
proposedresearch.Theproposedresearchprojectculminatesinaformalreportthat
willbecompletedbyDecember6,1995.Toreachthisgoal,Iwillfollowthe
schedulepresentedinFigure1.BecauseIalreadypossessseveralbooksand
articlesonearthquakeprediction,mostofmytimewillbespentsiftingthroughthe
information,findingthekeyresults,andpresentingthoseresultstotheaudience.

Figure1.Scheduleforcompletionofliteraturereview.Thetwotrianglesrepresent
milestonesfortheproject,thefirstbeingtheformalpresentationonNovember11,
1996,andthesecondbeingtheformalreportonDecember6,1996.

GiventhatIcanobtainallmysourcesfortheliteraturereviewfromthelibrary,
thereisnoappreciablecostassociatedwithperformingthisliteraturereview.The
onlycosts,whichwillbeminor,areforcopyingarticles,printingthereview,and
spiralbindingthereview.IestimatethatIcandothesetasksforunder$10.
IamaseniorintheGeologicalEngineeringDepartmentattheUniversityof
WisconsinatMadison.InmyundergraduatecoursesIhavetakenrockmechanics,
soilmechanics,geophysics,andstratigraphy,allofwhichhaveincludedthe
principlesofseismologyandstressstrainrelationships.Inaddition,Ihavetaken
fieldcoursesonstructuralgeologythathaveintroducedmetosubsurface
behaviors.Ibelievethatthesecoursesandmyhandsonexperiencewillaidmein
assimilatingtheproposedliteraturereview.Forfurtherinformationaboutmy
qualifications,seetheattachedresume(notattachedonthiswebsite).
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References
Bolt,BruceA.,Earthquakes(NewYork:W.H.FreemanandCompany,1988).
Bolt,BruceA.,EarthquakesandGeologicalDiscovery(NewYork:Scientific
AmericanLibrary,1993).
Deshpande,Prof.B.G.,Earthquakes,AnimalsandMan(Pune,India:The
MaharashtraAssociationfortheCultivationofScience,1987).
Hodgson,JohnH.,EarthquakesandEarthStructure(EnglewoodCliffs,NJ:
PrenticeHall,1964).
Meyer,LarryL.,CaliforniaQuake(Nashville:SherbournePress,1977).
Mileti,DennisS.,andColleenFitzpatrick,TheGreatEarthquakeExperiment
(Boulder,Colorado:WestviewPress,1993).
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