Economic
Impacts
Overview
On behalf of Friends of the BQX, HR&A Advisors examined the
economic and social benefits of the proposed BQX to New York
City. HR&A examined how the BQX will shape the development
of the Brooklyn Queens waterfronta geography stretching
from Sunset Park, Brooklyn to Astoria Cove, Queensover a
25-year period between 2020 and 2045.
To perform its core analysis, HR&A:
Defined a study area comprised of 11 waterfront neighborhoods that will be served by
the BQX.
Leveraged regional forecasts to establish
baseline growth projections for the study
area.
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1. Major Findings
Lower Manhattan with an expectation of a
reasonable commute.
Residents of the Astoria Houses in Queensbridge, for whom the BQX will permit reasonable access to employment opportunities in the Brooklyn Navy Yard.
and Ravenswood.42
42
Here and elsewhere, when we say total forecasted growth, we mean the sum of baseline plus BQX-derived, incremental growth.
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Over the past 15 years, most residential development along the Brooklyn Queens waterfront
has taken place within three transit-served
neighborhoods. This blistering pace of development has greatly strained local subway service in these communities.
As the waterfront transforms into a live/work
corridor and commuting patterns shift, the BQX
could relieve transit congestion and ensure the
waterfront remains a viable location to live and
work.
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2. Demographic Context
2.1 Geography
HR&A defined a study area (Study Area) that is
comprised of 11 waterfront neighborhoods
stretching from Sunset Park, Brooklyn to Hallets
Point, Queensthat will directly benefit from
BQX transit service. These neighborhoods are
shown below:
Greenpoint, Brooklyn
North Williamsburg, Brooklyn
South Williamsburg, Brooklyn
Navy Yard, Brooklyn
Ravenswood, Queens
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declined by 15%. Of the Waterfront neighborhoods, Downtown Brooklyn / DUMBO and Sunset
Park are the most populous, each home to over
55,000 residents.
Figure 3. Demographic Trends along the Brooklyn Queens waterfront; Source: US Census Bureau, American
Community Survey (ACS) 20092013
Population
2000
Population
2013
Population
200013
Density per sq
mile
Hallets Point
25,296
25,108
-1%
44,762
Ravenswood
33,455
28,461
-15%
22,847
6,194
11,355
83%
11,438
Neighborhood
19,440
16,573
-15%
21,764
Williamsburg North
6,116
10,224
67%
29,826
Williamsburg South
25,778
27,253
6%
69,530
Navy Yard
16,454
13,368
-3%
19,413
48,736
56,344
16%
46,738
Columbia Waterfront
7,627
7,817
2%
28,503
Red Hook
12,605
10,670
-4%
12,289
Sunset Park
51,757
55,304
7%
19,933
8,008,278
8,268,999
3%
27,323
253,458
262,477
13%
468,709
City
Corridor
2.2.2 Transportation
The majority of waterfront residents travel to
work via mass transit, a proportion that is onethird greater than the city as a whole. On average,
36% of residents along the corridor own a car
and 38% commute more than 40 minutes to work
each way. Specifically, residents of Sunset Park
are the most likely to have long commutes- over
50% of residents say they travel more than 40
minutes to work each way. Waterfront residents
have a meaningfully lower rate of car ownership
than do people who live Citywide.
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Figure 4. Commuting Trends along the Brooklyn Queens waterfront; Source: US Census Bureau; American
Community Survey (ACS) 20092013; ESRI Business Analyst
Neighborhood
40+ min
commute
Subway/
Rail
Bus
Car
Walk
Other
Car
Ownership
47%
60%
5%
20%
8%
6%
43%
Ravenswood
41%
59%
9%
20%
6%
6%
33%
24%
73%
1%
17%
4%
5%
42%
Greenpoint
37%
64%
3%
12%
9%
12%
32%
Williamsburg North
26%
65%
2%
11%
7%
16%
43%
Williamsburg South
25%
39%
6%
16%
26%
13%
35%
Navy Yard
47%
59%
12%
8%
10%
11%
26%
27%
67%
2%
8%
11%
13%
28%
Columbia Waterfront
48%
57%
4%
13%
14%
13%
46%
Red Hook
46%
43%
12%
28%
10%
7%
31%
Sunset Park
52%
49%
5%
17%
13%
6%
35%
Hallets Point
City
47%
44%
12%
27%
10%
7%
54%
Corridor
38%
59%
6%
15%
11%
10%
36%
2.2.3 Opportunity
Highly educated Waterfront residents are concentrated within select neighborhoods. Core
Long Island City, Downtown Brooklyn / DUMBO,
Williamsburg North, and Columbia Waterfront
residents are highly educated, with nearly of 70%
of the population holding a bachelors degree or
higher. In contrast, Red Hook and Sunset Park
are among the lowest educated neighborhoods
on the Waterfront, with more than 50% of the
population holding only a high school degree or
no high school degree. Core Long Island City and
Williamsburg North are among the neighborhoods with the highest median household income
with households earning $102,000 and $80,000,
respectively. Conversely, Ravenswood, Williamsburg South and Red Hook households earn less
than $30,000.
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Figure 5. Educational Attainment along the Brooklyn Queens waterfront; Source: US Census Bureau; American
Community Survey (ACS) 20092013; ESRI Business Analyst
Neighborhood
Masters +
Bachelors
Some
College
High
School
Hallets Point
13%
25%
18%
23%
21%
$45,612
Ravenswood
11%
19%
21%
24%
24%
$34,739
32%
38%
14%
11%
6%
$102,097
Greenpoint
20%
32%
21%
16%
11%
$63,165
Williamsburg North
27%
42%
16%
12%
4%
$80,332
Williamsburg South
No High
School
Median HH
Income
9%
20%
18%
30%
23%
$29,853
Navy Yard
12%
17%
19%
23%
29%
$29,648
35%
32%
13%
11%
8%
$92,532
Columbia Waterfront
28%
38%
13%
11%
10%
$98,264
7%
15%
20%
23%
35%
$25,566
Red Hook
Sunset Park
10%
16%
17%
21%
37%
$44,725
City
14%
20%
21%
25%
21%
$55,559
Corridor
19%
27%
17%
19%
19%
$45,612
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3. Economic
Development Impacts
3.1 Policy Context
HR&A has estimated the potential impacts of the BQX on employment growth over a 25-year horizona reasonable time frame
in which to observe its initial impacts on the continued evolution
of New York City.
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3.3 Findings
HR&A estimates that the BQX will add 86,000
jobs to the waterfront employment base by
2045, accounting for 25% of total forecasted
employment growth. The BQX will catalyze
employment growth along the length of the corridor, with substantial total employment growth
in Downtown Brooklyn / DUMBO as well as significant relative gains in transit-underserved
neighborhoods such as Red Hook, the Navy Yard
and Ravenswood.
Figure 6. Overall Employment Impacts of the BQX; Source: HR&A Advisors, incorporating an analysis of data
from NYMTC and the US Census.
Neighborhood
Hallets Point
2020 Jobs
(Est.)
2045 Jobs
(Baseline)
2045 Jobs
(BQX)
Baseline +
BQX
BQX Impact
7,000
8,000
3,000
11,000
38%
Ravenswood
19,000
21,000
12,000
33,000
57%
30,000
36,000
8,000
44,000
22%
7,000
9,000
2,000
11,000
22%
Greenpoint
Williamsburg North
4,000
4,000
1,000
5,000
25%
Williamsburg South
12,000
15,000
3,000
18,000
20%
Navy Yard
Downtown Brooklyn / DUMBO
Columbia Waterfront
Red Hook
Sunset Park
Total
6,000
7,000
4,000
11,000
57%
151,000
195,000
41,000
236,000
21%
2,000
2,000
2,000
0%
7,000
8,000
4,000
12,000
50%
31,000
39,000
8,000
47,000
21%
276,000
344,000
86,000
430,000
25%
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4. Policy Impacts
To contextualize the findings of its economic development
impact analysis, HR&A identified four policy theses for deeper
examination, using them as the basis for policy briefs that illustrate how the BQX will transform the Brooklyn Queens waterfront.
For each of the following sections, HR&A sets forth a policy
context for the corridor and the City, then outlines specific factors by which the BQX will influence these trends.
The four theses examined in this report are as follows:
Extending Access to Opportunity. The BQX
will link economically-challenged households and NYCHA developments constrained by poor transit service to a broader
range of economic and educational opportunities along the waterfront and throughout New York City, helping to break the cycle
of poverty. Residents of NYCHA developments with poor transit service will be able
to access a greater number of jobs, with
reduced travel times to key employment
centers along the waterfront and elsewhere
throughout New York City.
Enhancing Competitiveness. The BQX will
improve access to space suitable for new
growth sectors, traditional industrial jobs,
and office functions through the provision
of a new, efficient multimodal transit network. The substantial base of industrial
employment along the waterfront will benefit from improved access to labor, while
the growing innovation economy sector will
benefit from a broader range of transit-accessible neighborhoods located near to its
workforce. Existing Brooklyn Queens waterfront business districts will gain another
placemaking amenity, reinforcing their distinct identity.
Increasing the Supply of Affordable Housing. The improved transit access and placemaking character of the BQX will make
mixed-income, mixed-use housing devel-
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Figure 7. Travel Time Savings from the BQX to Red Hook Residents; Source: HR&A Advisors.
Findings
The BQX will significantly expand the range of
workplace destinations that can be reached
within a 45-minute commute. While an analysis
of US census data finds that nearly 10% of Red
Hook residents are employed in Red Hook, less
than 1% work in the surrounding waterfront neighborhoods, including Sunset Park and Brooklyn
Navy Yard with their concentrations of industrial
jobs. Following implementation of the BQX, commute times to Downtown Brooklyn / DUMBO will
be reduced by 10 minutes or more, and portions
of Lower Manhattan will now be within a 45-minute
commute of Red Hook residents.
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Figure 8. Commuting Distance Benefits of the BQX to Red Hook Residents; Source: Conveyal, HR&A Advisors.
Legend
Accessible within 45 minutes:
existing transit network
Accessible within 45 minutes:
BQX + existing transit network
Accessible Jobs
BQX Impact
850 jobs
1,800 jobs
112% increase
8,500 jobs
14,100 jobs
66% increase
Educational Services
27,750 jobs
31,200 jobs
12% increase
Retail
9,300 jobs
15,300 jobs
64% increase
Other Sectors
44,000 jobs
86,500 jobs
97% increase
All Jobs
90,400 jobs
148,850 jobs
65% increase
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Figure 10. Travel Time Savings from the BQX to Hallets Point Residents; Source: Conveyal, HR&A Advisors.
Findings
As with Red Hook, the BQX will significantly
expand the range of workplace destinations that
can be reached within a 45-minute commute.
Travel times to Long Island City and East Midtown
will be cut by up to 10 minutes. The Navy Yard will
now be within commuting distance of Hallets
Point residents. Most notably, a range of neighborhoods outside of the waterfrontincluding
the Garment District, Midtown South, and Union
Squarewill be within reach of residents.
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Figure 11. Commuting Distance Benefits of the BQX to Hallets Point Residents;
Source: Conveyal, HR&A Advisors.
Legend
Accessible within 45 minutes:
existing transit network
Accessible within 45 minutes:
BQX + existing transit network
Figure 12. Accessible Jobs within a 45-Minute Commute from Hallets Point ;
Source: HR&A Advisors, Conveyal, US Census Bureau
Sector
Accessible Jobs
BQX Impact
Manufacturing
2,500 jobs
4,750 jobs
90% increase
8,950 jobs
24,050 jobs
169% increase
Educational Services
3,800 jobs
16,400 jobs
332% increase
27,400 jobs
51,900 jobs
89% increase
Other Sectors
155,300 jobs
277,500 jobs
79% increase
All Jobs
197,900 jobs
374,700 jobs
89% increase
Retail
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Figure 13. Travel Time Savings from the BQX to Queensbridge Residents; Source: Conveyal, HR&A Advisors.
Findings
The BQX will more tightly link Queensbridge with
major employment hubs along the Brooklyn
waterfront, notably at the Navy Yard and Downtown Brooklyn / DUMBO. Travel times to the
Navy Yard and points north will be reduced by
46
Barnard, Anne, Delayed Impact at Queensbridge Houses, City Room, NY Times, 8/14/2009.
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Legend
Accessible within 45 minutes:
existing transit network
Accessible within 45 minutes:
BQX + existing transit network
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American Community Survey (2013). 2.5 out of 4.3 million New York workers relied on public transit as their primary means of
transportation to employment.
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Permanent Citizens Advisory Committee to the MTA/Urban Land Institute (March 2015). Keeping New York On Track: The Importance
of the MTA Transit Network in a Changing World.
49
Size, Sprawl, Speed and the Efficiency of Cities, Prudhomme and Lee, 1998.
50
NYCEDC (December 2013). Commercial Real Estate Competitiveness Study.
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only a limited number of outer borough neighborhoods have the quality transit access sought
by high-growth industriesand space is scarce.
Although the Brooklyn Queens waterfront currently offers over 250,000 jobs, employment
is concentrated in transit-rich neighborhoods.
Among the 11 waterfront neighborhoods analyzed by HR&A, Downtown Brooklyn / DUMBO
and Long Island City offer nearly two-thirds
(172,000) of all employment, in part due to their
proximity to transit and access to a broader
labor pool. In contrast, geographically proximate
but transit-starved neighborhoods are home to
approximately 37,500 high-quality, well-paying
industrial jobs but have lagged in employment
growth despite public and privately-led efforts
to support industry.
To achieve its full potential as a significant contributor to New York Citys economic growth,
the Brooklyn Queens waterfront is in need of a
transformative investment such as the BQX.
Such a project will attract high-growth industries and make more efficient use of available
real estate capacity throughout the corridor,
while at the same time supporting the industrial
economy. Based on this framework, HR&A
focused on BQXs potential impact on three
specific goals:
Sustaining the waterfront industrial economy. The BQX will help retain and grow
high-quality, well-paying industrial jobs
along the waterfront. It will provide firms
access to affordable and flexible space
while expanding their access to labor, allowing them to draw on a broader, more productive workforce.
Catalyzing Innovation Economy growth. The
BQX will enable emerging neighborhoods
such as Sunset Park to attract firms in technology, advertising, media, and light manufacturing while supporting the retention
and expansion of existing firms by providing
access to affordable, transit-accessible
commercial space as well as a desirable
placemaking amenity.
Regional Plan Association (1940). The Labor Force in the New York Metropolitan Region.
New York City Economic Development Corporation (2015).
53
New York State Department of Labor (2012). Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
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52
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Findings
By improving labor access, the BQX will more
than double industrial employment growth,
enabling the waterfront to attract an additional
19,100 jobs, for a total of 98,700 industrial jobs.
Figure 16. Employment Impacts of the BQX in the Industrial Sector; Source: HR&A Advisors.
Neighborhood
2020
2045 (Baseline)
2045 (BQX)
Baseline + BQX
BQX Impact
Hallets Point
1,400
1,500
400
1,900
27%
Ravenswood
13,700
17,600
7,800
25,400
44%
11,600
13,500
1,800
15,300
13%
Greenpoint
4,200
5,600
700
6,300
13%
Williamsburg North
900
900
100
1,000
11%
Williamsburg South
800
900
100
1,000
11%
Navy Yard
Downtown Brooklyn / DUMBO
Columbia Waterfront
2,000
2,00
900
3,000
45%
14,400
16,400
2,200
18,600
13%
700
1,100
100
1,200
9%
Red Hook
4,500
7,200
3,200
10,400
44%
Sunset Park
11,800
12,900
1,700
14,600
13%
66,000
79,600
19,100
98,700
24%
Total
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Legend
Accessible within 45 minutes:
existing transit network
Accessible within 45 minutes:
BQX + existing transit network
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The New York City Tech Ecosystem: Generating Economic Opportunities for All New Yorkers. (April 2014). Published by HR&A
Advisors, Association for a Better New York, Citi, Google, and NY Tech Meetup.
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Figure 18. Employment Impacts of the BQX in the Innovation Economy; Source: HR&A Advisors.
Neighborhood
2020
Innovation
Jobs
2045
Innovation
Jobs
(Baseline)
2045
Innovation
Jobs (BQX)
Baseline +
BQX
BQX Impact
Hallets Point
200
300
100
400
33%
Ravenswood
800
1,000
700
1,700
70%
2,200
2,800
800
3,600
29%
Greenpoint
400
900
300
1,200
33%
Williamsburg North
900
2,000
500
2,500
25%
Williamsburg South
400
1,100
300
1,400
27%
Navy Yard
800
2,000
1,200
3,200
60%
9,400
22,100
6,000
28,100
27%
Columbia Waterfront
100
200
100
300
50%
Red Hook
200
500
300
800
60%
Sunset Park
Total
2,600
5,400
1,500
6,900
28%
18,000
38,300
11,800
50,100
31%
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Figure 20. Travel Time Savings from Industry City to waterfront Tech Hubs
DUMBO
3 minutes saved
Navy Yard
10 minutes saved
Sunset Park
Industry City
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Gowanus
10 minutes saved
Cornell Tech students visited P.S./I.S. 217 on Roosevelt Island to teach coding and provide mentorship for
middle school students. Through improved access to waterfront schools, the BQX would position Cornell Tech
to pursue engagements with a greater number of nearby public schools.
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tion of which can be attributed to rezonings initiated during the Bloomberg administration.
Amidst this climate of blistering growth, however, city and state investments in local infrastructure have failed to keep pace with rapidly-growing local demand, with growing
congestion and delays to the subway network.
In North Williamsburg, MTA investments in
the L line, while significant, have failed to
keep up with demand. Peak-hour congestion
at Bedford Avenue has contributed to
crowded conditions and delays along the
length of the L line.
In Core Long Island City, the introduction of
over 8,000 new housing units has contributed to significant congestion along the
length of the 7 line, with conditions likely to
worsen following the arrival of 21,000 units
in the development pipeline.
The de Blasio administrations plan to expand
East River Ferry service in 2017 will begin to
relieve congestion at key locations along the
waterfront, particularly at transit-served adjacent parcels. An expansion of ferry service offers
the city administration its best short-term option
to address the need for improved waterfront
transit, particularly at locations where planned
ferry stops are proximate to current or proposed
residential development.
In Hallets Point and Core Long Island City,
East River Ferry service will support planned
developments at Astoria Cove by Alma
Realty and the Durst Organization as well
as proposed developments near to Queens
West and the LIC waterfront.
In Greenpoint, East River Ferry service will
support the influx of new residents that will
follow completion of the Greenpoint Landing
development, where construction has
recently begun.
In South Williamsburg, East River Ferry service will significantly improve transit options
for large-scale waterfront projects such as
the Domino Sugar Factory redevelopment.
The BQX would enhance city efforts to support
sustainable waterfront development by
enabling a greater number of waterfront residents to leverage the East River Ferry for Manhattan-bound commutes. By reducing travel
times to East River Ferry stops throughout the
waterfront, the BQX would provide a greater
number of waterfront residents with a credible
alternative to capacity-constrained subway
serviceparticularly in recently-rezoned neighborhoods which have experienced significant
population growth.
The BQX would encourage a greater number of
residents to consider employment at or near to
the route, facilitating the waterfronts transformation into a unified live/work corridor. By
reducing travel times to existing and emerging
employment centers along the waterfront, the
BQX would foster a broader, more sustainable
distribution of future residential growth, with
benefits to communities throughout its length.
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turing and construction will account for a significant proportion of the 86,000 additional jobs
that will result from BQX.
Low-income and under-skilled residents of the
waterfronts most vulnerable communities
those most likely to benefit from an expansion
in local employment opportunitywill require
access to city investments in workforce development and educational opportunity in order
to benefit from this growth. NYCHA residents
comprise 10% of the waterfront population, with
significant NYCHA developments in Hallets
Point, Ravenswood, Red Hook, and the Navy
Yard. A high school education or less accounts
for nearly 50% of residents educational attainment in these neighborhoods, substantially
lower than the corridor or the city. Without
greater participation in the citys workforce
development and educational programs, residents in these neighborhoods will be unable to
take full advantage of the new employment
opportunities made possible by the BQX.
For transit-served neighborhoods throughout
New York City, access to fast and convenient
public transportation supports the citys efforts
to promote educational opportunity and workforce development targeting key growth sectors. 78% of CUNY students commute to their
classrooms by subway or bus, and more than
40 percent of the Citys 1.3 million schoolchildren receive subsidized MetroCards. All of the
major universities at and near to the Brooklyn
Queens waterfrontincluding LaGuardia Community College, Long Island University, the Pratt
Institute, CUNY-Tech, and NYU Polytechnicare
proximate to the existing rail transit network.
The BQX will make it possible for transit-disconnected communities to take advantage of
key workforce development and educational
programs that can improve pursuit of new
waterfront employment opportunities. By introducing new and convenient access to existing
programs at and near to challenged waterfront
communities, the BQX will help residents to
attain the skills needed to pursue forecasted in
the coming decades. Key among these programs
and initiatives are the following:
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programs, with nearly half coming from boroughs other than Brooklyn. The programs are
offered in multiple neighborhoods in Brooklyn,
but are located in transit inaccessible areas of
Gowanus, Red Hook, and the Navy Yard.
Increased connectivity along the Brooklyn
Queens waterfront will enable residents to
access critical workforce development programs
that can prepare them for a newand
expandedwaterfront economy.
Source: Brooklyn Workforce Innovation Annual Report
2013/2014
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131
NYU
58
59
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