MA1061

All candidates

January Exam 2014

DO NOT OPEN THE QUESTION PAPER UNTIL INSTRUCTED TO DO SO BY THE

CHIEF INVIGILATOR

Department Mathematics

Module Code MA1061

Module Title Probability

Exam Duration Two hours

CHECK YOU HAVE THE CORRECT QUESTION PAPER

Number of Pages 3

Number of Questions 4

Instructions to Candidates Answer all questions.

All marks gained will be counted.

All questions carry equal weight.

For this exam you are allowed to use the following

Calculators Casio FX83 or Casio FX85

Books/Statutes Statistical tables

Additional Stationary Not required

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 MA1061
All candidates

1. (i) A sample space consists of five elements = {a1 , a2 , a3 , a4 , a5 }. For which values
of a and b with a, b R in the following sets of probabilities does the corresponding
triple (, A , P) become a probability space? Why?
(a) p(a1 ) = a, p(a2 ) = 0.1, p(a3 ) = 0.1, p(a4) = 0.2, p(a5 ) = 0.3.
(b) p(a1 ) = 0.4, p(a2 ) = 0.3, p(a3) = 0.4, p(a4) = a, p(a5 ) = b.
(c) p(a1 ) = 0.4, p(a2) = a, p(a3 ) = b, p(a4 ) = 0.1, p(a5 ) = 0.2.
(d) p(a1 ) = a, p(a2 ) = b, p(a3 ) = 0.1, p(a4) = 0.1, p(a5) = 0.3. [8 marks]
(ii) Let E and F be events satisfying P(E) = 11 17 14
25 , P(E F) = 25 , and P(F) = 25 . Calculate
(a) P(E F);
(b) P(E\F);
(c) the probability that neither E nor F occurs. [9 marks]
(iii) One in eleven adults in the UK is asthmatic. A sample of 50 adults is drawn from the
UK population. Each person is selected at random, and independently of the others.
Let X denote the number of asthmatic adults in the sample.
(i) Write down the probability mass function of X.
(ii) Find the probability that none of the adults in the sample is asthmatic.
(iii) Find the probability that at least three of the adults in the sample are asthmatic.
[8 marks]

2. (i) Define the conditional probability P(A|B) of the event A given the event B [3 marks]
(ii) Define the independence of two events A and B. [3 marks]
(iii) Using the definition of conditional probability and properties of probabilities, prove the
properties of conditional probabilities:

(a) P(A|) = P(A); (b) if A B then P(B|A) = 1,

where is the certain event. [6 marks]

(iv) An insurer has three kinds of car insurance policy holders. Specifically, 50% of pol-
icyholders are low risk, 30% are moderate risk, and 20% are high risk. During a
typical year, the probability that a low risk policyholder will file a claim is 0.1. The
corresponding probabilities for moderate and high risk policyholders are 0.2 and 0.5,
respectively. Policyholders who file a claim are called claimants.
(a) Find the probability that a randomly chosen policyholder is a low risk claimant.
(b) Find the probability that a randomly chosen policyholder is a claimant.
(c) What proportion of claimants are high risk?
(d) If a policyholder is not a claimant, how likely is it that he or she is not high risk?
[13 marks]

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 MA1061
All candidates

3. Define the following function

1,
for x 2,
2
FX (x) = cx , for 0 x 2,

0, elsewhere.

(a) What value of c makes the above a continuous cumulative distribution function?
[7 marks]
(b) Let X be a continuous random variable with cumulative distribution function FX defined
above. Find the probability density function fX (x) of X . [8 marks]
(c) Calculate the mean, variance and standard deviation of X . [10 marks]

4. (a) State the conditions under which the Binomial distribution Bi(n, p), with parameters
n and p, may be reasonably approximated by
(i) a Poisson distribution;
(ii) a Normal distribution.
[6 marks]
(b) In a certain large population of students 1 in 100 students smoke. Suppose that 400
students are chosen at random from this population.
(i) Calculate (to 4 decimal places) the probability that at least 2 students smoke.
(ii) Recalculate this probability, to the same accuracy, using a suitable Poisson ap-
proximation. Comment.
[12 marks]
(c) If 4000 students are chosen at random from the same population, estimate the prob-
ability that 51 or more of them smoke using a suitable approximation. [7 marks]

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