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Find the distance to Disneyland if the total driving time was 7.2 hours.

(distance)=(rate)(time) or d=rt

rate to Disnseyland:50

rate from Disneyland:30

time to Disneyland:t

time to Disneyland+time frome Disneyland=7.2 therefore time from Disneyland:7.2-t

Distance to Disneyland=50t

Distance from Disneyland=30(7.2-t)

These two distances are equal, therefore:

50t=30(7.2-t)

50t=216-30t

50t+30t=216-30t+30t

80t=216

80t/80=216/80

t=2.7 hrs

Plug this t into the distance equation going to Disneyland.

Distance to Disneyland=50(2.7) miles

Distance to Disneyland=135 miles

Exponential Functions

Let’s start off this section with the definition of an exponential function.

function is a function in the form,

Notice that the x is now in the exponent and the base is a fixed number. This is exactly the

opposite from what we’ve seen to this point. To this point the base has been the variable, x in

most cases, and the exponent was a fixed number. However, despite these differences these

functions evaluate in exactly the same way as those that we are used to. We will see some

examples of exponential functions shortly.

Before we get too far into this section we should address the restrictions on b. We avoid one

and zero because in this case the function would be,

and these are constant functions and won’t have many of the same properties that general

exponential functions have.

Next, we avoid negative numbers so that we don’t get any complex values out of the function

and as you can see there are some function evaluations that will give complex numbers. We

only want real numbers to arise from function evaluation and so to make sure of this we

require that b not be a negative number.

Now, let’s take a look at a couple of graphs. We will be able to get most of the properties of

exponential functions from these graphs.

Solution

Okay, since we don’t have any knowledge on what these graphs look like we’re going to have

to pick some values of x and do some function evaluations. Function evaluation with

exponential functions works in exactly the same manner that all function evaluation has

worked to this point. Whatever is in the parenthesis on the left we substitute into all the x’s on

the right side.

-2

-1

1

2

Sometimes we’ll see this kind of exponential function and so it’s important to be able to go

between these two forms.

Properties of

1. The graph of will always contain the point . Or put

left to right. Check out the graph of above for verification of this

property.

5. If then

All of these properties except the final one can be verified easily from the graphs in the first

example. We will hold off discussing the final property for a couple of sections where we will

actually be using it.

As a final topic in this section we need to discuss a special exponential function. In fact this is so

special that for many people this is THE exponential function. Here it is,

. In the first case b is any number that is meets the restrictions given

above while e is a very specific number. Also note that e is not a terminating

decimal.

This special exponential function is very important and arises naturally in many

areas. As noted above, this function arises so often that many people will think

of this function if you talk about exponential functions. We will see some of the

applications of this function in the final section of this chapter.

Solution

Let’s first build up a table of values for this function.

x -2

f(x) 0.1353…

use a calculator. In fact, that is part of the point of this example.

you can run your calculator and verify these numbers.

since

There is one final example that we need to work before moving onto the next

section. This example is more about the evaluation process for exponential

functions than the graphing process.

evaluation of exponential functions.

Solution

Here is a quick table of values for this function.

x -1

g(x) 32.945…

Now, as we stated above this example was more about the evaluation process

than the graph so let’s go through the first one to make sure that you can do

these.

the exponentiation before we multiply by any coefficients (5 in this case).

we used only 3 decimal places here since we are only graphing.

applications we will want to use far more decimal places in these computations.

Notice that this graph

violates all the properties

we listed above. That is

okay. Those properties are

only valid for functions in

the form

more going on in this

function and so the

properties, as written

above, won’t hold for this

function.

than"

2. < means "is less than"

3. ≥ means "is greater

than or equal to"

4. ≤ means "is less than or

equal to"

The next topic that we need to

discuss is the idea of interval

notation. Interval notation is

some very nice shorthand for

inequalities and will be used

extensively in the next few

sections of this chapter.

notation is the following table.

There are three columns to the

table. Each row contains an

inequality, a graph representing

the inequality and finally the

interval notation for the given

inequality.

Inequality

Remember that a bracket, “[” or “]”, means that we include the endpoint while a parenthesis, “(”

or “)”, means we don’t include the endpoint.

Now, with the first four inequalities in the table the interval notation is really nothing more than

the graph without the number line on it. With the final four inequalities the interval notation is

almost the graph, except we need to add in an appropriate infinity to make sure we get the

correct portion of the number line. Also note that infinities NEVER get a bracket. They only get

a parenthesis.

We need to give one final note on interval notation before moving on to solving inequalities.

Always remember that when we are writing down an interval notation for an inequality that the

number on the left must be the smaller of the two.

It’s now time to start thinking about solving linear inequalities. We will use the following set of

facts in our solving of inequalities. Note that the facts are given for <. We can however, write

down an equivalent set of facts for the remaining three inequalities.

1. If then and

number to both sides of the inequality and we don’t change the inequality itself.

an inequality by the number without changing the inequality.

. In this case, unlike the previous fact, if c is negative we need to flip the

direction of the inequality when we multiply or divide both sides by the inequality by c.

These are nearly the same facts that we used to solve linear equations. The only real exception is

the third fact. This is the important fact as it is often the most misused and/or forgotten fact in

solving inequalities.

If you aren’t sure that you believe that the sign of c matters for the second and third fact consider

the following number example.

I hope that we would all agree that this is a true inequality. Now multiply both sides by 2 and by

-2.

Sure enough, when multiplying by a positive number the direction of the inequality remains the

same, however when multiplying by a negative number the direction of the inequality does

change.

Okay, let’s solve some inequalities. We will start off with inequalities that only have a single

inequality in them. In other words, we’ll hold off on solving double inequalities for the next set

of examples.

The thing that we’ve got to remember here is that we’re asking to determine all the values of the

variable that we can substitute into the inequality and get a true inequality. This means that our

solutions will, in most cases, be inequalities themselves.

Example 1 Solving the following inequalities. Give both inequality and interval notation forms of

the solution.

(a)

[Solution]

(b) [Solution]

Solution

Solving single linear inequalities follow pretty much the same process for solving linear equations.

We will simplify both sides, get all the terms with the variable on one side and the numbers on the

other side, and then multiply/divide both sides by the coefficient of the variable to get the solution.

The one thing that you’ve got to remember is that if you multiply/divide by a negative number then

switch the direction of the inequality.

(a)

There really isn’t much to do here other than follow the process outlined above.

You did catch the fact that the direction of the inequality changed here didn’t you? We divided by

a “-7” and so we had to change the direction. The inequality form of the solution is

[Return to Problems]

(b)

Again, not much to do here.

Now, with this inequality we ended up with the variable on the right side when it more traditionally

on the left side. So, let’s switch things around to get the variable onto the left side. Note however,

that we’re going to need also switch the direction of the inequality to make sure that we don’t

change the answer. So, here is the inequality notation for the inequality.

Exponential functions

Definition

Take a > 0 and not equal to 1 . Then, the function defined by

f : R -> R : x -> ax

Graph and properties

Let f(x) = an exponential function with a > 1.

Let g(x) = an exponential function with 0 < a < 1.

• The domain is R

• The range is the set of strictly positive real numbers

• The function is continuous in its domain

• The function is increasing if a > 1 and decreasing if 0 < a < 1

• The x-axis is a horizontal asymptote

Logarithmic functions

Definition and basic properties

Take a > 0 and not equal to 1 . Since the exponential function

f : R -> R : x -> ax

are either increasing or decreasing, the inverse function is defined. This inverse

function is called the logarithmic function with base a. We write

loga (x)

So,

loga(x) = y <=> ay = x

From this we see that the domain of the logarithmic function is the set of strictly

positive real numbers, and the range is R.

Example:

and

Graph

Let f(x) = a logarithmic function with a > 1.

Let g(x) = a logarithmic function with 0 < a < 1.

From the graphs we see that

• The range is R

• The domain is the set of strictly positive real numbers

• The function is continuous in its domain

• The function is increasing if a > 1 and decreasing if 0 < a < 1

• The y-axis is a vertical asymptote

Properties

In the next 3 properties, all logarithmic functions have base a > 0. For convenience, I

don't write this base a.

Proof :

•

• au = av . aw

•

• => au = av + w

• => u=v+w

So,

log(x.y) = log(x) + log(y)

log(x/y) = log(x) - log(y)

•

• For each real number r we have :

log(xr ) = r.log(x)

Sometimes it is very useful to change the base of a logarithmic function.

Theorem: for each strictly positive real number a and b, different from 1, we have

logb(a)

Proof:

We'll prove that

logb(a) . loga(x) = logb(x)

av = bw

Using (1)

bu.v = bw

So,

u.v = w

The number e

A special limit concerning the derivative of an exponential function

We try to calculate the derivative of the exponential function

f(x) = ax

Appealing on the definition of the derivative, we can write

(f(x+h)-f(x))

h->0 h

ax+h - ax

= lim ------------

h->0 h

ax (ah - 1)

= lim -----------

h->0 h

(ah - 1)

= ax . lim -----------

h->0 h

Now,

(ah - 1)

h->0 h

It can be proved that there is a unique value of a, such that this limit is 1. This very

special value of a is called e.

So,

(eh - 1)

lim ----------- = 1

h->0 h

The expression

(eh - 1)

lim ----------- = 1

0 h

eh - 1 is approximately h

<=> eh is approximately h +1

So,

0

Or, if we say that t = 1/h

infty

Definition of ln(x)

The logarithmic function with base number e is noted ln(x). So,

loge(x) = ln(x)

Derivative of a logarithmic function

In this section, all logarithmic functions have base a. For convenience, I don't write

this base number.

(f(x+h)-f(x))

h->0 h

(log(x+h)-log(x))

h->0 h

log( (x+h)/x )

h->0 h

h->0 h

h->0

h->0

h->0

h->0

h->0

h->0

h/x->0

h/x->0

x. ln(a)

Important cases

Let u be a differentiable function of x.

d 1

-- loga(x) = ----------

dx x. ln(a)

d 1

dx u. ln(a)

d 1

-- ln(x) = ---

dx x

d 1

-- ln(u) = ---.u'

dx u

So,

ax .ln(a)

d

dx

Important corollaries

Let u be a differentiable function of x.

---(ax ) = ax .ln(a)

dx

--(ex ) = ex

dx

--(au ) = au .ln(a).u'

dx

--(eu ) = eu .u'

dx

xr = er.ln(x)

=>

--(xr) = er.ln(x).(r.ln(x))'

dx

= xr.r.(1/x)

= r.xr-1

Thus,

--(ur) = r.ur-1.u'

dx

Derivative of uv

Let u = f(x) and v = g(x), then

uv = ev.ln(u)

--(uv) = ev.ln(u).(v.ln(u))'

dx

dx

have a clue.

about solving these problems. Here are the problems:

13. A bag contains one red marble and one white marble. Marbles

times in a row?

Sincerely,

Alexia Kaye

Dear Alexia,

Hello! I'm glad you wrote for help -- that is what we are here

for!

Okay, so if you are flipping 6 coins, and you want to know the

you need to know is what the probability that the coin will land

on heads is, and what the probability that the coin will land on

Thus, in the fair coin, the probability that the coin lands on heads

is 1/2 because on the average, one out of every two times the coin

lands on heads. Likewise the probability that the coin will land

actual coin that is "fair." Most coins have probabilities that are

nearly equal to 1/2, but are more like, for instance, .4899

Let's tackle that first problem. Suppose you want to know the

probability that when you flip your six coins you will get the

This may be something you have seen before; if not, feel free to

right? Well, now let's use the same general strategy to solve your

Certainly the sequence above does, and there are others: HHTTHH

there are "6 choose 2" such sequences. I'm not sure how much

math that has to do with counting things like the number of sequences

of H's and T's such that there are 4 H's and 2 T's!) you have had,

once we know where the tails are, since we have just 4 other slots

left, those slots must be filled by heads, and we are okay. So, in how

many ways can we put 2 T's into 6 different slots? The combinatorial

answer is "6 choose 2" = 6!/ (4!)(2!). Thus, the number of sequences

with 4 heads and 2 tails is 6!/ (4!)(2!). Thus the probability that

question, eh?!

you.

The third and fourth questions can be figured out using methods

that a certain event will NOT happen, and then once you know that,

you can use the fact the probability that an event will happen + the

probability.

probability that you will not get at least 3 heads. If you don't have

at least 3 heads, what does that mean? It means you must have

0 heads? The probability that you have 1 head? The probability

that you have 2 heads? (These are things you can solve using exactly

the same method we used to solve your first two problems). Since the

events are mutually exclusive (that is, if you have a sequence with

exactly 2 heads. So, from here you can probably get an answer.

I'm going to leave the marble questions to you, for now. See if

you can figure out what to do with them, having done the coin

Conditional Probability

a question about an example in the Basic Probability information from

the Ask Dr. Math faq. The example is discussing the independent

events of drawing red or blue marbles. There are 6 blue marbles and 4

red marbles. The discussion goes on to talk about two events, the

second outcome dependent upon the first. The actual example is: But

(4/15)/(6/10) = 4/9.

Thank you,

Carole Black

This means that the probability of drawing a Red given that the first

draw was a blue is 4/9. Note the word 'given'. We know before making

the second draw that the first draw was a blue. This must be contrasted

with the probability of red-blue before we start making any draw. The

through the experiment. These probabilities are also referred to as

P(A and E)

P(E|A) = ----------

P(A)

In other words, if we know that A has occurred, then the sample space

Date: 11/14/2002 at 12:21:34

From: Sally

Subject: Probabilities

obtaining:

P(5) = 1/6

P(head and 5) = 1/2 x 1/6 = 1/2

Thanks.

Hi Sally,

h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6

h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6

--

So p(heads and five) = 1/12. How many contain a heads _or_ a five?

h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6

-- -- -- -- -- -- --

p(heads) = 6/12

and

p(5) = 2/12

and when we add them up, we get 8/12, which is clearly wrong. So what

h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6

-- -- -- -- -- --

~~ ~~

p(h or 5) = p(h) + p(5) - p(h and 5)

INTERPRETING PROBABILITIES

What is a probability? What does it mean to say that a probability of a fair coin is one

half, or that the chances I pass this class are 80 percent, or that the probability that the

Steelers win the Super Bowl this season is .1?

First, think of some event where the outcome is uncertain. Examples of such

outcomes would be the roll of a die, the amount of rain that we get tomorrow, the state

of the economy in one month, or who will be the President of the United States in the

year 2001. In each case, we don't know for sure what will happen. For example, we

don't know exactly how much rain we will get tomorrow.

A probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood of the event. It is a number that

we attach to an event, say the event that we'll get over an inch of rain tomorrow,

which reflects the likelihood that we will get this much rain.

A probability is a number from 0 to 1. If we assign a probability of 0 to an event, this

indicates that this event never will occur. A probability of 1 attached to a particular

event indicates that this event always will occur. What if we assign a probability of .5?

This means that it is just as likely for the event to occur as for the event to not occur.

+----------------------------+----------------------------+

0 .5 1

to occur

There are two basic interpretations, or ways of thinking, about probabilities. These

interpretations will help us assign probabilities to uncertain outcomes.

THE RELATIVE FREQUENCY INTERPRETATION OF

PROBABILITY

We are interested in learning about the probability of some event in some process. For

example, our process could be rolling two dice, and we are interested in the

probability in the event that the sum of the numbers on the dice is equal to 6.

Suppose that we can perform this process repeatedly under similar conditions. In our

example, suppose that we can roll the two dice many times, where we are careful to

roll the dice in the same manner each time.

I did this dice experiment 50 times. Each time I recorded the sum of the two dice and

got the following outcomes:

4 10 6 7 5 10 4 6 5 6 11 11 3 3 6

7 10 10 4 4 7 8 8 7 7 4 10 11 3 8

6 10 9 4 8 4 3 8 7 3 7 5 4 11 9

5 5 5 8 5

To approximate the probability that the sum is equal to 6, I count the number of 6's in

my experiments (5) and divide by the total number of experiments (50). That is, the

probability of observing a 6 is roughly the relative frequency of 6's.

# of 6's

PROBABILITY (SUM IS 6) is approximately -----------

# of tosses

5

= ---- = .1

50

or proportion of times that the event occurs.

# of times event occurs

PROBABILITY (EVENT) is approximately -----------------------

# of experiments

Comments about this definition of probability:

1. The observed relative frequency is just an approximation to the true probability

of an event. However, if we were able to perform our process more and more

times, the relative frequency will eventually approach the actual probability. We

could demonstrate this for the dice example. If we tossed the two dice 100

times, 200 times, 300 times, and so on, we would observe that the proportion of

6's would eventually settle down to the true probability of .139.

Click here for a demonstration of this idea using computer dice rolling.

2. This interpretation of probability rests on the important assumption that our

process or experiment can be repeated many times under similar circumstances.

In the case where this assumption is inappropriate, the subjective

interpretation of probability is useful.

THE SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION OF

PROBABILITY

The relative frequency notion of probability is useful when the process of interest, say

tossing a coin, can be repeated many times under similar conditions. But we wish to

deal with uncertainty of events from processes that will occur a single time. For

example, you are likely interested in the probability that you will get an A in this class.

You will take this class only one time; even if you retake the class next semester, you

won't be taking it under the same conditions as this semester. You'll have a different

instructor, a different set of courses, and possibly different work conditions. Similarly,

suppose you are interested in the probability that BGSU wins the MAC championship

in football next year. There will be only a single football season in question, so it

doesn't make sense to talk about the proportion of times BGSU would win the

championship under similar conditions.

In the case where the process will happen only one time, how do we view

probabilities? Return to our example in which you are interested in the event "get an A

in this class". You assign a number to this event (a probability) which reflects your

personal belief in the likelihood of this event happening. If you are doing well in this

class and you think that an A is a certainty, then you would assign a probability of 1 to

this event. If you are experiencing difficulties in the class, you might think "getting an

A" is close to an impossibility and so you would assign a probability close to 0. What

if you don't know what grade you will get? In this case, you would assign a number to

this event between 0 and 1. The use of a calibration experiment is helpful for getting a

good measurement at your probability.

Comments about the subjective interpretation of probability:

• A subjective probability reflects a person's opinion about the likelihood of an

event. If our event is "Joe will get an A in this class", then my opinion about the

likelihood of this event is probably different from Joe's opinion about this

event. Probabilities are personal and they will differ between people.

• Can I assign any numbers to events? The numbers you assign must be proper

probabilities. That is, they must satisfy some basic rules that all probabilities

obey. Also, they should reflect your opinion about the likelihood of the events.

• Assigning subjective probabilities to events seems hard. Yes, it is hard to assign

numbers to events, especially when you are uncertain whether the event will

occur or not. We will learn more about assigning probabilities by comparing the

likelihoods of different events.

MEASURING PROBABILITIES USING A CALIBRATION

EXPERIMENT

Probabilities are generally hard to measure. It is easy to measure probabilities of

events that are extremely rare or events that are extremely likely to occur. For

example, your probability that the moon is made of green cheese (a rare event) is

probably close to 0 and your probability that the sun will rise tomorrow (a sure event)

is likely 1. But consider your probability for the event "There will be a white

Christmas this year". You can remember years in the past where there was snow on

the ground on Christmas. Also you can recall past years with no snow on the ground.

So the probability of this event is greater than 0 and less than 1. But how do you

obtain the exact probability?

To measure someone's height we need a measuring instrument such as a ruler.

Similarly, we need a measuring device for probabilities. This measuring device that

we use is called a calibration experiment . This is an experiment which is simple

enough so that probabilities of outcomes are easy to specify. In addition, these stated

probabilities are objective; you and I would assign the same probabilities to outcomes

of this experiment.

The calibration experiment that we use is called a chips-in-bowl experiment. Suppose

we have a bowl with a certain number of red chips and white chips. We draw one chip

from the bowl at random and we're interested in

Probability(red chip is drawn)

This probability depends on the number of chips in the bowl. If, for example, the bowl

contains 1 red chip and 9 white chips, then the probability of choosing a red is 1 out of

10 or 1/10 = .1. If the bowl contains 3 red and 7 chips, then the probability of red is

3/10 = .3. If the bowl contains only red chips (say 10 red and 0 white), then the

probability of red is 1. At the other extreme, the probability of red in a bowl with 0 red

and 5 white is 0/5 = 0.

Let's return to our event "There will be a white Christmas this year". To help assess its

probability, we compare two bets -- one with our event and the second with the event

"draw a red chip" from the calibration experiment. This is best illustrated by example.

Consider the following two bets:

• BET 1: You get $100 if there is a white Christmas and nothing if there is not a

white Christmas.

• BET 2: You get $100 if you draw red in a bowl of 5 red and 5 white and

nothing otherwise.

Which bet do you prefer? If you prefer BET 1, then you think that your event of a

white Christmas is more likely than the event of drawing red in a bowl with 5 red, 5

white. Since the probability of a red is 5/10 = .5, this means that your probability of a

white Christmas exceeds .5. If you prefer BET 2, then by similar logic, your

probability of a white Christmas is smaller than .5.

Say you prefer BET 1 and you know that your probability is larger than .5, or between

.5 and 1. To get a better estimate at your probability, you make another comparison of

bets, where the second bet has a different number of red and white chips.

Next you compare the two bets

• BET 1: You get $100 if there is a white Christmas and nothing if there is not a

white Christmas.

• BET 2: You get $100 if you draw red in a bowl of 7 red and 3 white and

nothing otherwise.

Suppose that you prefer BET 2. Since the probability of red in a bowl of 7 red and 3

white is 7/10 = .7, this means that your probability of a white Christmas must be

smaller than .7.

We've now made two judgements between bets. The first judgement told us that our

probability of white Christmas was greater than .5 and the second judgement told us

that our probability was smaller than .7. What is our probability? We don't know the

exact value yet, but we know that it must fall between .5 and.7. We can represent our

probability by an interval of values on a number line.

OUR PROBABILITY OF WHITE CHRISTMAS LIES IN HERE:

*********

+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1

What if we wanted to get a more accurate estimate at our probability? We need to

make more comparison between bets. For example, we could compare two bets,

where the first bet used our event and the second used the event "draw red" from a

bowl of chips with 6 red and 4 white. After a number of these comparisons, we can

get a pretty accurate estimate at our probability.

INTERPRETING ODDS

Often probabilities are stated in the media in terms of odds. For example, the

following is a paragraph from Roxy Roxborough's Odds and Ends column in USA

EYE OF THE TIGER: Sensational PGA tour rookie Tiger Woods has been installed

an early 9-5 favorite to win the most cash at the Skins Game at the Rancho La

Quinta Golf Course in La Quinta, Calif., Nov. 30-Dec. 1. The charismatic

Woods will have to contend with Fred Couples, the close 2-1 second choice, as

well as the still dangerous Tom Watson, 3-1, and power stroker John Daly, 9-2.

We read that Tiger Woods is the favorite to win this golf tournament at a 9-5 odds.

What does this mean?

An odds of an event is the ratio of the probability that the event will not occur to the

probability that the event will occur . In our example, the event is "Tiger Woods will

win". We read that the odds of this event are 9 to 5 or 9/5. This means that

Probability (Tiger Woods will not win) 9

-------------------------------------- = ---

Probability (Tiger Wodds will win) 5

This means that it is more likely for Woods to lose the tournament than win the

tournament.

How can we convert odds to probabilities? There is a simple recipe. If the odds of an

event are stated as A to B (or A-B or A/B), then the probability of the event is

B

Probability(event) = ----------

B + A

So, for example, if the odds of Woods winning are 9-5 or 9/5, then the probability of

Woods winning is

5

Probability(event) = ---------- = .3571

5 + 9

SPACE)

Suppose that we will observe some process or experiment in which the outcome is not

known in advance. For example, suppose we plan to roll two dice and we're interested

in the sum of the two numbers appearing on the top faces. Before we can talk about

probabilities of various sums, say 3 or 7, we have to understand what outcomes are

possible in this experiment.

If we roll two dice, each die could show 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. So the sum of the two faces

could be any whole number from 2 to 12. We call this set of possible outcomes in the

random experiment the sample space . Here the sample space can be written as

Sample space = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}

Let's consider the set of all possible outcomes for other basic random experiments.

Suppose we plan to toss a coin 3 times and the outcome of interest is the number of

heads. The sample space in this case is the different numbers of heads you could get if

you toss a coin three times. Here you could get 0 heads, 1 heads, 2 heads or 3 heads,

so we write the sample space as

Sample space = {0, 1, 2, 3}

Don't forget to include the outcome 0 -- if we toss a coin three times and get all tails,

then the number of heads is equal to 0.

The concept of a sample space is also relevant for experiments where the outcomes

are non-numerical. Suppose I draw a card from a standard deck of playing cards. If

I'm interested in the suit of the card, there are four possible outcomes and the sample

space is

Sample space = {Spade, Heart, Diamond, Club}

If I am interested in the suit and the face of the card, then there are many possible

outcomes. One can represent the sample space by the following table:

FACE OF CARD

SUIT 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Spade x x x x x x x x x x x x x

Heart x x x x x x x x x x x x x

Diamond x x x x x x x x x x x x x

Club x x x x x x x x x x x x x

Each "x" in the table corresponds to a particular outcome of the experiment. For

example, the first "x" in the third row of the table corresponds to a draw of the 2 of

Diamonds. We see from this table that there are 52 possible outcomes.

Once we understand what the collection of all possible outcomes looks like, we can

think about assigning probabilities to the different outcomes. But be careful --

incorrect probability assignments can be made because in mistakes in specifying the

entire sample space.

PROBABILITY RULES

Suppose that a random process results in a number of different outcomes. A sample

space is a list of all such outcomes. As an example, suppose I'm interested in the

amount of time (in minutes) it takes to drive to work this morning. Based on my past

experience, I know that there are four different possibilities. So my sample space

looks like the following:

OUTCOME

it takes under 30 minutes

it takes between 30 and 35 minutes

it takes between 35 and 40 minutes

it takes over 40 minutes

numbers to these outcomes, we should first ask: Are there any rules that probabilities

must satisfy?

Yes, probabilities must satisfy three general rules:

• Any probability assigned must be a nonnegative number.

• The probability of the sample space (the collection of all possible outcomes) is

equal to 1.

• If you have two outcomes that can't happen at the same time, then the

probability that either outcome occurs is the sum of the probabilities of the

individual outcomes.

How do we use these rules to assign probabilities in the above "drive to work"

example? The first rule tells us that probabilities can't be negative, so it makes no

sense to assign -1, say, to the outcome "it takes over 30 minutes". The second and

third rules tell us that the probabilities that we assign to a collection

ofnonoverlapping outcomes must add to 1. Nonoverlapping outcomes means that they

can't occur at the same time. For example, the outcomes "takes over 20 minutes" and

"takes under 30 minutes" are overlapping since they both can happen (if, say, the trip

takes 24 minutes). The outcomes "takes under 20 minutes" and "takes over 25

minutes" are nonoverlapping, since at most one of these events can happen at the

same time.

With these rules in mind, here are three hypothetical assignments of probabilities,

corresponding to four people, Max, Joe, Sue, and Mary.

FOUR SETS OF PROBABILITIES

OUTCOME Max Joe Sue Mary

it takes under 30 minutes .3 .2 .4 0

it takes between 30 and 35 minutes -.1 .3 .4 .2

it takes between 35 and 40 minutes .4 .4 .1 .8

it takes over 40 minutes .4 .3 .1 0

Who has made legitimate probability assignments in the above table? There are

problems with the probabilities that Max and Joe have assigned. Joe can't give the

outcome "it takes between 30 and 35 minutes" a negative probability, no matter how

unlikely this outcome. Joe has made a mistake, since the sum of his probabilities for

the four nonoverlapping outcomes is 1.2, which is not equal to 1.

Sue and Mary have give sets of legitimate probabilities, since they are all nonnegative

and they sum to 1. But there differences between these two sets of probabilities, which

reflect different opinions of these two people about the length of time to work. Sue is

relatively optimistic about the time to work, since .8 of her probability is on the

outcomes "under 30 minutes" and "between 30 and 35 minutes". In contrast, Mary

believes that a trip under 30 minutes will never occur (it has a probability of 0) and it

is very probable that it will take between 35 and 40 minutes.

COMPUTING PROBABILITIES WITH EQUALLY

LIKELY OUTCOMES

Before we can compute any probabilities for outcomes in a random process, we have

to define the sample space , or collection of all possible outcomes. If we have listed all

outcomes and it is reasonable to assume that the outcomes are equally likely , then it is

easy to assign probabilities.

Let's consider a simplified lottery game. Suppose that Ohio has a game where you try

to guess a random two-digit number that is selected. This "winning" random number

is selected by the following process. There are two boxes, labelled box A and box B,

that each contain 10 ping pong-balls labelled using the digits 0 through 9. A random

number is selected by letting the first digit be the number of the ball selected from box

A, and the second digit is the number of the ball selected from box B.

What is the sample space? There are 100 possible winning two-digit numbers that are

listed below.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59

60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69

70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

By the way the two-digit number is selected, no particular number listed above has

any more or less chance of being selected than another number. So it is reasonable to

assign the same probability to each number in the above list. What probability should

be assigned? There are 100 possible winning numbers. If we wish to assign the same

probability to each number and keep the total probability of all the numbers equal to

1, then each number should be given the probability 1/100 = .01.

In general, if there are N possible outcomes in an experiment and the outcomes

are equally likely , then you should assign a probability of 1/N to each outcome.

CAUTION: This recipe for assigning probabilities works only when the outcomes are

equally likely. It is easy to misuse this. For example, suppose you toss a coin three

times and you're interested in the number of heads. The possible numbers of heads

(the sample space) are

0 head, 1 head, 2 heads, 3 heads

There are four outcomes in this case. But it is incorrect to assume that the probabilities

of each outcome is 1/4 = .25. These four outcomes are not equally likely. In fact, the

probability of 1 head is three times the probability of 3 heads.

CONSTRUCTING A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION BY

LISTING OUTCOMES

In a random experiment, the sample space is the collection of all possible outcomes.

In some situations, it is reasonable to assume that all of the possible outcomes of the

experiment are equally likely. In this case, it is straightforward to compute the

probability distribution for some variable of interest.

Let us illustrate this construction process for a simple example. Suppose a room

contains two men and three women. You wish to select two people from this class to

serve on a committee. How many women will be on this committee? We don't know --

the number of women in the committee could be 0, 1 or 2. We are interested in

obtaining the probability of each of the three possibilities.

First, we will represent the people in the room using the symbols

W1 W2 W3 M1 M2

In the above, W represents a women and M a man and we distinguish between the

people of the same sex.

Our experiment is selecting two people to serve on the committee. Using our symbols

for the people, there are the following 10 possible committees. Note that we don't care

what order the two people are selected; we are only interested in the group of people

in the committee. If we select the committee at random, then each possible group of

two people has the same chance of being selected. Since there are 10 groups, we

assign to each possible committee the probability 1/10.

COMMITTEE PROBABILITY

W1, W2 1/10

W1, W3 1/10

W2, W3 1/10

M1, W1 1/10

M1, W2 1/10

M1, W3 1/10

M2, W1 1/10

M2, W2 1/10

M2, W3 1/10

M1, M2 1/10

Remember our interest was in the number of women on the committee. For each

committee listed above, we can list the number of women selected. For example,in the

committee {W1, W2}, 2 women were selected, for the committee {M2, W3}, 1

woman was selected, and so on. We put the number of women next to the group name

in the table.

COMMITTEE # OF WOMEN PROBABILITY

W1, W2 2 1/10

W1, W3 2 1/10

W2, W3 2 1/10

M1, W1 1 1/10

M1, W2 1 1/10

M1, W3 1 1/10

M2, W1 1 1/10

M2, W2 1 1/10

M2, W3 1 1/10

M1, M2 0 1/10

Now we are ready to construct our probabilty table for "number of women". In the

table below, we list all possible numbers of women we could pick (0, 1 or 2). Then we

assign probabilities to the three outcomes by using the above table.

What is the probabilty that 0 women are selected. Looking at the table, we see that 0

women means that the committee selected was {M1, M2} which has probability 1/10.

So the probability of 0 women is 1/10.

What is the probabilty that exactly 1 women is selected? Looking at the table, we see

that we select exactly 1 women when the committes {M1, W1}, {M1, W2}, {M1,

W3}, {M2, W1}, {M2, W2}, {M2, W3} are chosen. By adding the probabilities of the

six outcomes, we see that the probability of 1 women is 6/10. It should be easy for

you to find the probability that two women are selected. Putting this all together, we

arrive at the following probability distribution for number of women.

# OF WOMEN PROBABILITY

0 1/10

1 6/10

2 3/10

SIMULATION

It can be difficult to construct a probability distribution. However, suppose that we

can perform the random process many times. For example, if we are interested in the

probability of getting a sum of 6 when rolling two dice, we can roll two dice many

times. If our goal is to find the probability of tossing 10 heads in 20 tosses of a fair

coin, we can toss the coin a large number of times. Then, using the relative frequency

notion of probability, we can approximate the probability of a particular outcome by

the proportion of times the outcome occurs in our experiment. If we find the

probabilities for all outcomes of the experiment in this manner, we have constructed

the probability distribution. The accuracy of these approximate probabilities will

improve as we increase the number of repetitions of the experiment.

Let's illustrate this method of building a probability distribution by considering the

experiment of tossing a fair coin 20 times. We're interested in the probability

distribution for the total number of heads observed. The computer can be used to

simulate 20 coin tosses. In the first simulation, we observe the following sequence of

heads (H) and tails (T).

COIN TOSSES NUMBER OF HEADS

HTTTHHHHTHTHHTHHHTHT 12

We note that there are 12 heads in this sequence. Is this a typical value for the number

of heads of 20 tosses of a fair coin? To help answer the question, we run this

experiment 9 more times; the tosses for the 10 experiments are shown below.

COIN TOSSES NUMBER OF HEADS

H T T T HHHHT HT HHT HHHT HT 12

T HT T T HHHT HHHHT HHHHT H 13

H HHHT T HT T HHT T T T HT HT T 9

T T HT HT T HT T T T HHT HHT HH 9

T HHT HT HT T T T HHHT HHHT T 10

H T T HHT HHT T T T T HT T T HT H 8

H HT HHT HHHT HT HHT HHHHH 15

T T T T HHHT HHHT HHT HT HT T 10

T T HT HHHHT T T HHT T HT T HT 9

H HT T T T T T HHT HT HT HHHHH 11

To help understand any pattern in these observed numbers of heads, we use a stemplot

display. The stems on the left are the elements of the sample space {0, 1, 2, ..., 20}.

These are the possible numbers of heads that we could get if a coin were tossed 20

times. Then we indicate by leafs of 0's the outcomes in our 10 experiments.

0 10 EXPERIMENTS

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8 0

9 000

10 00

11 0

12 0

13 0

14

15 0

16

17

18

19

20

More experiments.

We're starting to see some clumping of the values about 10, but we haven't performed

enough experiments to see a strong pattern. Click on the "more experiments" link to

see the results of 50 experiments.

PROBABILITIES OF "OR" AND "NOT" EVENTS

Sometimes we are interested in computing probabilities of more complicated events. Here we introduce

two basic probability rules. The first rule is useful for finding the probability of one event or another

event. The second rule tells us how to compute the probability that an event does not occur.

We will illustrate this rule with an example. Suppose Ohio has a two-digit lottery game and the winning

number will be chosen at random from all possible two-digit numbers

There are 100 possible winning numbers and since each has the same chance of being chosen, we assign

a probability of 1/100 = .01 to each number.

Suppose we want to find the probability that the winning number has the same two digits or the

winning number is between 89 and 96 inclusive. If these two events ("same two digits" and "between 89

and 96") are nonoverlapping, then we can find the probability of "same two digits" or "between 89 and

96" by adding:

Prob("same two digits" or "between 89 and 96") = Prob("same two digits")+Prob("between 89 and 96")

Are these two events nonoverlapping? Nonoverlapping means that it is impossible for the two events to

occur at the same time. Here "same two digits" means the winning number is from the set {00, 11, 22,

33, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99}. "Between 89 and 96" means that the number is in the set {89, 90, 91, 92, 93,

94, 95, 96}. Note that these two sets have nothing in common; in other words, it is impossible for the

winning number to have the same two digits and be between 89 and 96. So we can add the probabilities

to find the probability of the "or" event. The probability of "same two digits" is 10/100 and the

probability of "between 89 and 96" is 8/100. Therefore the probability of interest is

Prob("same two digits" or "between 89 and 96") = 10/100 + 8/100 = 18/100 = .18

What if we wanted to find the probability of "same two digits" or "an even second digit"? Here we can't

use this addition rule, since these two events are overlapping. It is possible for the winning to have the

same two digits and have an even second digit -- the number 44 (and other numbers) is in both events.

So this rule cannot be used in this case.

This rule is also applicable in the case where you want to find the probability of a collection of different

outcomes. Suppose you toss a coin five times and you wish to find the probability that the number of

heads is 2 or fewer. You can think of the event "2 or fewer heads" as an "or" event:

By definition, the three outcomes {0 heads}, {1 heads} and {2 heads}, since you can only observe at most

one of these outcomes when you toss the coin three times. So the addition rule can be used and

The complement rule (for computing probabilities of "not" events)

Let's return to our lottery example. What if you're interested in the probability that the winning

number does not have the same two digits. The rule for "not" events is called the complement rule:

We have already found the probability that the winning number has the same two digits, so the

probability of interest is

The complement rule is especially useful in the case where it hard to compute the probability of an

event, but it is relatively easy to compute the probability of "not" the event. For example, suppose we

wish to compute the probability of tossing at least one head in 10 tosses of a coin. In this case, it would

make sense to first perform the easier computation, the probability of "not at least one head" or "no

heads". Then we apply the complement rule to find the probability of the event of interest.

albert@bayes.bgsu.edu

Document: http://www-math.bgsu.edu/~albert/m115/probability/add_probs.html

Last Modified: February 18, 2005

DISTRIBUTION

To discuss the idea of an average value of a probability distribution, let's discuss

Roulette, one of the most popular casino games. In this game, there is a wheel with 38

numbered metal pockets (1 to 36 plus 0 and 00). The wheel is spun moving a metal

ball and the ball comes to rest in one of the 38 pockets. The wheel is balanced so that

the ball is equally likely to fall in any one of the 38 possible numbers. You play this

game by betting on various outcomes --- you win if the particular outcome is spun.

Suppose you decide to bet $10 on the numbers 1-12. You will win $20 (and keep your

$10 bet) if the ball lands falls in slots 1-12; otherwise, you lose your $10. Is this a

good game for you? How will you do, on the average, if you play this bet ($10 on 1-

12) many times?

First, let's find the probability distribution for the amount of money you win on a

single bet. There are two possibilities -- either you win $20 or you win -$10 (win a

negative number means you lose +$10). You win if the ball falls in slots 1-12. Since

there are 38 slots, each of which is equally likely, the probability of each slot is 1/38,

and so the probability of falling in 1-12 (and you win) is 12/38. The probability you

lose is 1 - 12/38 = 26/38. In summary, the probability distribution for the amount you

win is

AMOUNT YOU WIN PROBABILITY

20 12/38

-10 26/38

often called the mean . We compute this average in two steps:

• we multiply each outcome value by the corresponding probability to

get products

• we add all of the products to get the average

We illustrate this computation for the roulette winnings in the table below. In the

PRODUCT column we multiply each winning by its probability. The value at the

bottom of the PRODUCT column is the average.

AMOUNT YOU WIN PROBABILITY PRODUCT

20 12/38 (20)(12/38) = 240/38

-10 26/38 (-10)(26/38) = -260/38

SUM -20/38 = -.53

Here we compute the average value to be $-.53 or 53 cents. What does this mean?

• First, it is important to note that the average winning is negative. This is not a

fair game and it is to your disadvantage (and the casino's advantage) for you to

play this game.

• One useful interpretation of the average winning $-.53 is that it is

approximately the average winning per game if you were to play this game (bet

$10 on numbers 1-12) a large number of times.

Let's illustrate this using a computer to simulate many games. I play the game

100 times one day and I record the winnings (in dollars) for the games in the

table below.

20 -10 -10 -10 20 -10 -10 20 -10 -10 -10 -10

20 20 20 20 20 -10 20 -10 20 -10 -10 -10

20 20 -10 -10 20 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 20

20 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 20 -10 -10 20 20 20

-10 -10 20 -10 -10 -10 20 -10 -10 -10 -10 20

-10 20 -10 -10 20 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10

-10 -10 20 -10 -10 20 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 20

-10 -10 20 -10 -10 20 -10 20 -10 -10 -10 20

-10 -10 20 -10

How have I done at the end of the day? It turns out that I am $40 in the hole

after these 100 games. In other words, I have lost an average amount of

$40/100 = $.40 or 40 cents on each game. This is close to the average value .53

that I computed from the probability distribution above. I would observe an

average loss closer to .53 if I played this game a much larger number of times.

UNDERSTANDING A TWO-WAY TABLE OF

PROBABILITIES

Suppose we have a random process where an outcome is observed and two things are

measured. For example, suppose we toss a fair coin three times and we observe the

sequence

HTH

where H is a head and T a tail. Suppose we record

• the number of heads

• the number of runs in the sequence

In the three tosses above, we observe 2 heads and 3 runs in the sequence.

We are interested in talking about probabilities involving both measurements "number

of heads" and "number of runs". These are described as joint probabilities , since they

reflect the outcomes of two variables.

To construct this type of probability distribution, we first describe the collection of

possible outcomes for the two variables. The number of heads in three tosses could be

0, 1, 2, or 3, and the number of runs in a sequence could be 1, 2, or 3. We represent

these outcomes by the following two-way table:

NUMBER OF HEADS

0 1 2 3

1

NUMBER OF RUNS 2

3

Next we have to place probabilities in the above table. If we toss a coin three times,

there are 8 possible outcomes. Since the coin is fair, each of the outcomes has the

same probability. In the table below, we list the eight outcomes, the number of heads

and the number of runs in the outcome and the probability of the outcome.

OUTCOME # OF HEADS # OF RUNS PROBABILITY

HHH 3 1 1/8

HHT 2 2 1/8

HTH 2 3 1/8

HTT 1 2 1/8

THH 2 2 1/8

THT 1 3 1/8

TTH 1 2 1/8

TTT 0 1 1/8

Now we are ready to fill in the probability table. Start with the box in the first row and

first column. What is the probability that the number of runs is equal to 1 andthe

number of heads is equal to 0? Looking at the outcome table, we see that this happens

once (for outcome TTT). So the probability of 1 run and 0 heads is equal to the

probability of TTT, which is 1/8. What's the probability of 1 run and 1 head. We see

from the outcome table that this never happens, so the probability in this box is 0.

Next look at the box in the second row and second column. To find the probability of

2 runs and 1 head, we see that this happens twice in the outcome table (HTT and

TTH). So the probability in this box is 2/8. If we continue this for all boxes, we get

the following probability table.

NUMBER OF HEADS

0 1 2 3

1 1/8 0 0 1/8

NUMBER OF RUNS 2 0 2/8 2/8 0

3 0 1/8 1/8 0

For the following questions, it might be helpful to convert this probability table to a

count table. Suppose that we tossed three coins 800 times. Then we would expect to

get 1 run and 0 head 1/8th of the experiments, or 100 times, we expect to get 2 runs

and 1 head 2/8th of the time, or 200 experiments, and so on. By converting

probabilities to counts, we get the following count table. This represents what we

think would happen if we did this coin experiment many times. Note that I have added

an extra row and extra column to the table. The TOTAL column gives the number of

counts in each row and the TOTAL row gives the number of counts in each column.

NUMBER OF HEADS

0 1 2 3 TOTAL

1 100 0 0 100 200

NUMBER OF RUNS 2 0 200 200 0 400

3 0 100 100 0 200

TOTAL 100 300 300 100 800

Using this count table, we'll ask some questions which explore the connection

between the number of heads in this experiment and the number of runs.

1. If you toss three coins, how many runs are likely to occur? Look at the TOTAL

column of the table. This tells us that, out of 800 experiments, we expect to get

200 "one run", 400 "two runs", and 200 "three runs". The most likely

possibility is "two runs" which has probability 400/800 = .5.

2. If we are told that we get two runs in our coin tossing, what does that tell you

about the number of heads? Look only at the "two runs" row of the table. Two

runs happened 400 times in our hypothetical experiments. Of these 400 counts,

only 1 and 2 heads occurred with frequencies 200 and 200. So if we are given

that two runs occur, then we know that the only two possibilities are 1 and 2

heads with respective probabilities 200/400 and 200/400

3. What if we are told that the experiment resulted in exactly 2 heads. Have you

learned anything about the number of runs in the sequence? Focus now on the

"2 heads" column of the table. The number of 1 runs, 2 runs, and 3 runs in this

column are 0, 200, and 100. So if we know that there were 2 heads, then the

probabilities of 1 runs, 2 runs, and 3 runs are 0/300, 200/300, and 100/300. So

it is most likely in this case that 2 runs will occur and 1 run in the sequence is

impossible.

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