1. A certain disease affects about 1 out of 10,000 people.

There is a test to check whether

the person has the disease. The test is quite accurate. In particular, we know that

the probability that the test result is positive (suggesting the person has the disease),
given that the person does not have the disease, is only 2 percent;
the probability that the test result is negative (suggesting the person does not have the
disease), given that the person has the disease, is only 1 percent.

A random person gets tested for the disease and the result comes back positive. What is the
probability that the person has the disease?
Solution
o Let D be the event that the person has the disease, and let T be the event that the
test result is positive. We know

P(D)=110,000,

P(T|Dc)=0.02,

P(Tc|D)=0.01

What we want to compute is P(D|T). Again, we use Bayes' rule:

P(D|
=P(T|D)P(D)P(T|D)P(D)+P(T|Dc)P(Dc)
T)
=(10.01)0.0001(10.01)0.0001+0.02(10.
0001)

=0.0049

2. I have three bags that each contain 100 marbles:

Bag 1 has 75 red and 25 blue marbles;

Bag 2 has 60 red and 40 blue marbles;

 Bag 3 has 45 red and 55 blue marbles.

I choose one of the bags at random and then pick a marble from the chosen bag, also at random.
What is the probability that the chosen marble is red?
Solution
o Let R be the event that the chosen marble is red. Let Bi be the event that I
choose Bag i. We already know that

P(R|B1)=0.75,

P(R|B2)=0.60,

P(R|B3)=0.45

We choose our partition as B1,B2,B3. Note that this is a valid partition because,
firstly, the Bi's are disjoint (only one of them can happen), and secondly, because
their union is the entire sample space as one the bags will be chosen for sure, i.e.,
P(B1B2B3)=1. Using the law of total probability, we can write

P(R =P(R|B1)P(B1)+P(R|B2)P(B2)+P(R|
) B3)P(B3)
=(0.75)13+(0.60)13+(0.45)13
=0.60
3. If I roll a fair die. Let A be the event that the outcome is an odd number, i.e.,

A={1,3,5}. Also let B be the event that the outcome is less than or equal to 3, i.e.,
B={1,2,3}. What is the probability of A, P(A)? What is the probability of A given
B, P(A|B)?

Solution
o This is a finite sample space, so
 P(A)=|A|/|S|=|{1,3,5}|/6=1/2.

Now, let's find the conditional probability of A given that B occurred. If we

know B has occurred, the outcome must be among {1,2,3}. For A to also

happen the outcome must be in AB={1,3}. Since all die rolls are equally

likely, we argue that P(A|B) must be equal to

P(A|B)=|AB|/|B|=2/3.

4. I roll a fair die twice and obtain two numbers X1= result of the first roll and X2=

result of the second roll. Given that I know X1+X2=7, what is the probability that

X1=4 or X2=4?

Solution
o Let A be the event that X1=4 or X2=4 and B be the event that

X1+X2=7. We are interested in P(A|B), so we can use

P(A|B)=P(AB)/P(B)

We note that

A={(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(1,4),(2,4),(3,4),(4,4),
(5,4),(6,4)},

B={(6,1),(5,2),(4,3),(3,4),(2,5),(1,6)},

AB={(4,3),(3,4)}.

We conclude
 P(A|B)=P(AB)/P(B)

=2/36/6/36

=1/3.

5. Consider a family that has two children. We are interested in the children's genders. Our
sample space is S={(G,G),(G,B),(B,G),(B,B)}. Also assume that all four
possible outcomes are equally likely.

a. What is the probability that both children are girls given that the first child is a girl?
b. We ask the father: "Do you have at least one daughter?" He responds "Yes!" Given this
extra information, what is the probability that both children are girls? In other words,
what is the probability that both children are girls given that we know at least one of them
is a girl?

Solution
o Let A be the event that both children are girls, i.e., A={(G,G)}. Let B be

the event that the first child is a girl, i.e., B={(G,G),(G,B)}. Finally, let C

be the event that at least one of the children is a girl, i.e., C={(G,G),(G,B),

(B,G)}. Since the outcomes are equally likely, we can write

P(A)=14,

P(B)=24=12,

P(C)=34.

a. What is the probability that both children are girls given that the first child

is a girl? This is P(A|B), thus we can write

P(A| =P(AB)/P(
B) B)
 (since A
=P(A)/P(B)
B)
=1/4/1/2=1/2
.
b. What is the probability that both children are girls given that we know at

least one of them is a girl? This is P(A|C), thus we can write

P(A| =P(AC)/P(
C) C)

(since A
=P(A)/P(C)
C)
=1/4/3/4=1/3

6. In a factory there are 100 units of a certain product, 5 of which are defective. We pick

three units from the 100 units at random. What is the probability that none of them are
defective?

Solution
o Let us define Ai as the event that the ith chosen unit is not defective, for

i=1,2,3. We are interested in P(A1A2A3). Note that

P(A1)=95/100.

Given that the first chosen item was good, the second item will be chosen from
94 good units and 5 defective units, thus

P(A2|A1)=94/99.

Given that the first and second chosen items were okay, the third item will be
chosen from 93 good units and 5 defective units, thus
 P(A3|A2,A1)=93/98.

Thus, we have

P(A1A2A3 =P(A1)P(A2|A1)P(A3|
) A2,A1)
=95/100 *94/99* 93/98
=0.8560

As we will see later on, another way to solve this problem is to use counting
arguments

7. You toss a fair coin three times:

a. What is the probability of three heads, HHH?

b. What is the probability that you observe exactly one heads?
c. Given that you have observed at least one heads, what is the probability that you observe
at least two heads?

Solution
o We assume that the coin tosses are independent.

a. P(HHH)=P(H)P(H)P(H)=0.53=1/8.
b. To find the probability of exactly one heads, we can write
P(One
=P(HTTTHTTTH)
heads)
=P(HTT)+P(THT)
+P(TTH)
=1/8+1/8+1/8
=3/8.
 c. Given that you have observed at least one heads, what is the probability
that you observe at least two heads? Let A1 be the event that you observe
at least one heads, and A2 be the event that you observe at least two
heads. Then

A1=S{TTT}, and P(A1)=78;

A2={HHT,HTH,THH,HHH}, and P(A2)=48.

Thus, we can write

P(A2| =P(A2A1)P(
A1) A1)

=P(A2)P(A1)
=4/8*8/7=47.

8. In a class, 40% of the students study math and science. 60% of the students study math.
What is the probability of a student studying science given he/she is already studying
math?

Solution

P(M and S) = 0.40

P(M) = 0.60

P(S|M) = P(M and S)/P(S) = 0.40/0.60 = 2/3 = 0.67

9. What is the probability of the occurrence of a number that is odd or less than 5 when a
fair die is rolled.

Solution

Let the event of the occurrence of a number that is odd be A and the event of the occurrence of
a number that is less than 5 be B. We need to find P(A or B).

P(A) = 3/6 (odd numbers = 1,3 and 5)

P(B) = 4/6 (numbers less than 5 = 1,2,3 and 4)

P(A and B) = 2/6 (numbers that are both odd and less than 5 = 1 and 3)

Now, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A or B)

= 3/6 + 4/6 2/6

P(A or B) = 5/6.

10. When two dice are rolled, find the probability of getting a greater number on the first die
than the one on the second, given that the sum should equal 8.

Solution

Let the event of getting a greater number on the first die be G.

There are 5 ways to get a sum of 8 when two dice are rolled = {(2,6),(3,5),(4,4), (5,3),(6,2)}.

And there are two ways where the number on the first die is greater than the one on the second
given that the sum should equal 8, G = {(5,3), (6,2)}.

Therefore, P(Sum equals 8) = 5/36 and P(G) = 2/36.

Now, P(G|sum equals 8) = P(G and sum equals 8)/P(sum equals 8)

= (2/36)/(5/36)

= 2/5

11.In a single throw of two dice, what is the probability that the sum is 9?
12. What is the chance that a leap year, selected at random, will contain 53
Sundays?
Solution :
A leap year consists of 366 days consisting of 52 weeks and 2 extra days. These two
extra days can occur in the following possible ways.
(i ) Sunday and Monday
(ii)Monday and Tuesday
(iii)Tuesday and Wednesday
(iv)Wednesday and Thursday
(v)Thursday and Friday
(vi)Friday and Saturday
(vii)Saturday and Sunday
Out of the above seven possibilities, two outcomes,
e.g., (i) and (vii), are favourable to the event

P ( 53 Sundays ) = 2/7

13.A bag contains 3 red, 6 white and 7 blue balls. What is the probability that
two balls drawn are white and blue ?
14. Find the probability of getting both red balls, when from a bag containing 5
red and 4 black balls, two balls are drawn,
(i) with replacement.
(ii) without replacement.

15.Six cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability that 3 will be
red and 3 black?

16. Three cards are drawn from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that they
are a king, a queen and a jack.
17. If the letters of the word 'REGULATIONS' be arranged at random, what
is the probability that there will be exactly 4 letters between R and E?

18. In an experiment with throwing 2 fair dice, consider the events

A : The sum of numbers on the faces is 8
B : Doubles are thrown.
What is the probability of getting A or B ?
19. In a single throw of two dice, find the probability of a total of 9 or 11

20. The probabilities that a student will receive an A, B , C or D grade are 0.30,
0.35, 0.20 and 0.15 respectively. What is the probability that a student will receive at least a B
grade ?

21. An urn contains 8 white balls and 2 green balls. A sample of three balls is
selected at random. What is the probability that the sample contains at least one green ball ?
22. Two balls are drawn at random with replacement from a bag containing 5blue and 10 red
balls. Find the probability that both the balls are either blue or red.

23. Assume that a certain school contains equal number of female and male
students. 5 % of the male population is football players. Find the probability that a randomly
selected student is a football player male.

24. Find the chance of drawing 2 white balls in succession from a bag containing 5 red and 7
white balls, the balls drawn not being replaced.

25. A company produces 1,000 refrigerators a week at three plants. Plant A

produces 350 refrigerators a week, plant B produces 250 refrigerators a week,
and plant C produces 400 refrigerators a week. Production records indicate that
5% of the refrigerators at plant A will be defective, 3% of those produced at
plant B will be defective, and 7% of those produced at plant C will be defective.
All refrigerators are shipped to a central warehouse. If a refrigerator at the
warehouse is found to be defective, what is the probability that it was produced
a) at plant A? b) at plant B? c) at plant C? We consider D as defective and D as
non defective.

26. An absence minded nurse is to give Mr. Brown a pill each day. The probability that the nurse
forgets to administer the pill is 2/3. If he receives the pill, the probability that Mr. Brown will die is
1/3. If he does not get the pill, the probability that he will die is . Mr. Brown died. What is the
probability that the nurse forgot to give Mr. Brown the pill?

27. A company that specializes in language tutoring lists the following information concerning its
English-speaking employees: 23 speak German, 25 speak French, 31 speak Spanish, 43 speak
Spanish or French, 38 speak French or German, 46 speak German or Spanish, 8 speak Spanish,
French and German, and 7 office workers and secretaries speak English only. Make a Venn Diagram
and show all information in it. Find the following a) What percent of the employees speak at least
one language other than English? b) What percent of the employees speak at least two languages
other than English