Issues To Consider in Interpreting Correlation Results
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Issues To Consider in Interpreting Correlation Results
Diunggah oleh
Olga Becky AlfaroHak Cipta:
Format Tersedia
5/8/16
Issues to consider in interpreting
Correlation Results
Interpretation of CAUSALITY and CORRELATION
Why is correlation weak evidence for causality?
Third or Hidden Variable Problem
Both variables related to third variable
Third variable has a causal relationship with
both variables.
Directionality Problem
Does X cause changes in Y ?
Does Y cause changes in X ?
Are there reciprocal causal effects ?
Correlation vs. Causation
Self-Esteem & ADHD r = - 0.42
Does having ADHD cause people
to have lower self-esteem?
Does having low self-esteem cause ADHD?
Is high self-esteem a protective factor
AGAINST ADHD?
Correlation vs. Causation
Self-Esteem & ADHD r = - 0.42
Is there a hidden variable?
Example: Low DOPAMINE levels
Dopamine deficiency:
Lack of motivation, apathy, lack of focus
Scatterplots
Low self-esteem?
Easy distractibility: poor academic performance
Social / family relationship problems
ADHD symptoms
Attention: lack of focus
Hyperactivity: easily bored
1
5/8/16
Self-Esteem Optimism
Correlation and Bivariate Linear
10 7
9 5
9 4 Scatterplot of Original Data
Regression 7
6
8
5
6 3
6 1
4 3 12
Self-Esteem Optimism 2 3
1 1 10
10 7
Criterion Variable
9 5 8
9 4
7 8 6
6 5
4
6 3
6 1 2
4 3
0
2 3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
1 1 Predictor Variable
Self-Esteem Optimism Self-Esteem Optimism
10 7 10 7
9 5 9 5
9 4 Scatterplot of Original Data 9 4 Scatterplot of Original Data
7 8 7 8
6 5 6 5
6 3 6 3
6 1 6 1
4 3 12 4 3 12
2 3 2 3
1 1 10 1 1 10
Criterion Variable
Criterion Variable
8 8
7
6 6
5
4 4
2 2
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 9 10 12
Predictor Variable Predictor Variable
Self-Esteem Optimism Self-Esteem Optimism
10 7 10 7
9 5 9 5
9 4 Scatterplot of Original Data 9 4 Scatterplot of Original Data
7 8 7 8
6 5 6 5
6 3 6 3
6 1 6 1
4 3 12 4 3 12
2 3 2 3
1 1 10 1 1 10
Criterion Variable
Criterion Variable
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
1
0 0
0 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Predictor Variable Predictor Variable
2
5/8/16
Find the best fit line
Scatterplot for Self-Esteem and Optimism
10
OPTIMISM (Outcome)
7
6
REGRESSION 5
Building on Correlation 4
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
SELF-ESTEEM (Predictor)
Start with slope (b) Start with slope (b)
Self-Esteem Optimism
Y' = bX + a Self-Esteem Optimism
Y' = bX + a
10 7 10 7
9 5 9 5
9 4 9 4
7
6
6
8
5
3
7
6
6
8
5
3
! sY $
6
4
2
1
3
3
6
4
2
1
3
3
b = r# &
Mean=
St.
Dev.
=
1
6.0
2.98
1
4.0
2.31
Mean=
St.
Dev.
=
1
6.0
2.98
1
4.0
2.31
" sX %
Start with slope (b) Start with slope (b)
Self-Esteem Optimism
Y' = bX + a Self-Esteem Optimism
Y' = bX + a
10 7 10 7
9 5 9 5
9 4 9 4
! 7$ 8 ! 7 8 $ r = +0.645
b = r ## s b = r ## s
Y6 5! 2.31 $ Y6 5 ! 2.31 $
6&& = 0.645#
3 & = 0.645 0.775 = 0.50 6 3 && = 0.645# & = 0.645 0.775 = 0.50
"s 6
X4
2
% 1
3
3
" 2.98 % "s 6
X4
2
1
3
3
% " 2.98 % X
= 2.98 s
rMean=
X Z Y 4.0
5.81 5.81
= Z6.0
1
=
1
= = 0.645 Mean=
1
6.0
1
4.0
s Y
= 2.31
St.
Dev.
=
n-1
2.98
2.31
10-1 9 St.
Dev.
=
2.98
2.31
3
5/8/16
Start with slope (b) Start with slope (b)
Self-Esteem Optimism
Y' = bX + a Self-Esteem Optimism
Y' = bX + a
10 7 10 7
9 5 9 5
9 4 9 4
! 7 $ 8 ! 7 $ 8
b = r ## s b = r ## s
Y6 5 ! 2.31 $ Y6 5 ! 2.31 $
6 && = 0.645#
3 & = 0.645 0.775 = 0.50 6 && = 0.645#
3 & = 0.645 0.775 = 0.50
"s 6
X4 % 1
3
" 2.98 % "s 6
X4 % 1
3
" 2.98 %
2 3 2 3
1 1 1 1
Mean=
6.0
4.0
Mean=
6.0
4.0
St.
Dev.
=
2.98
2.31
St.
Dev.
=
2.98
2.31
Find the Y-intercept (a) Find the Y-intercept (a)
Self-Esteem Optimism Self-Esteem Optimism
10 7 Y' = 0.5X + a 10 7 Y' = 0.5X + a
9 5 9 5
9 4 9 4
7 8 7 8
6 5 6 5
6
6
4
2
1
3
1
3
3
1
6
6
4
2
1
3
1
3
3
1
a = Y - bX
Mean= 6.0 4.0 Mean= 6.0 4.0
St. Dev. = 2.98 2.31 St. Dev. = 2.98 2.31
Find the Y-intercept (a) Find the Y-intercept (a)
Self-Esteem Optimism Self-Esteem Optimism
10 7 Y' = 0.5X + a 10 7 Y' = 0.5X + a
9 5 9 5
9 4 9 4
7 8 7 8
X = 6.0
6
6
5
3
a = Y - bX a = Y- bX = 4.0 - ( 0.50 6.0 ) = 4.0-3.0 = 1.0
6
6
5
3
6 1 6 1
4 3 4 3
Y = 4.0 2
1
3
1
2
1
3
1
Mean=
6.0
4.0
Mean=
6.0
4.0
St.
Dev.
=
2.98
2.31
St.
Dev.
=
2.98
2.31
b = 0.50
4
5/8/16
Find the Y-intercept (a) Plug slope (b) and Y-intercept (a) into equation
Self-Esteem Optimism
10
9
7
5
Y' = 0.5X + a 10
9
Y' = 0.5X + 1.0
Self-Esteem Optimism
7
5
9 4 9 4
7 8 7 8
a = Y- bX = 4.0 - ( 0.50 6.0 ) = 4.0-3.0 = 1.0
6
6
5
3
6
Y-INTERCEPT = b = +1.0
6
5
3
6 1 6 1
4 3 4 3
2 3 2 3
1 1 1 1
Mean=
St. Dev. =
6.0
2.98
4.0
2.31
Mean=
St. Dev. = SLOPE = b = + 0.50
6.0
2.98
4.0
2.31
Drawing the best fit (regression) line Drawing the best fit (regression) line
Self-Esteem Optimism
10 7
Scatterplot for Self-Esteem and
Optimism
Y ' = 0.5X +1.0 Self-Esteem Optimism
10 7
Scatterplot for Self-Esteem and
Optimism
9 5 9 5
10 10
9 4 9 4
X =0
OPTIMISM (Outcome)
OPTIMISM (Outcome)
9 9
7 8 7 8
8 8
6 5 7
6 5 7
6 3 6
6 3 6
6
4
2
1
3
3
5
4
3
Y ' = ( 0.5 0.0 ) +1.0 = 0 +1 = 1.0
6
4
2
1
3
3
5
4
3
1 1 2 1 1 2
Mean=
6.0
4.0
1 Mean=
6.0
4.0
1
St.
Dev.
=
2.98
2.31
0 St.
Dev.
=
2.98
2.31
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
SELF-ESTEEM (Predictor) SELF-ESTEEM (Predictor)
Drawing the best fit (regression) line Drawing the best fit (regression) line
Y ' = 0.5X +1.0 Self-Esteem Optimism
10 7
Scatterplot for Self-Esteem and
Optimism
Y ' = 0.5X +1.0 Self-Esteem Optimism
10 7
Scatterplot for Self-Esteem and
Optimism
9 5 9 5
10 10
9 4 9 4
X =0 X =0
OPTIMISM (Outcome)
OPTIMISM (Outcome)
9 9
7 8 7 8
8 8
6 5 7
6 5 7
6 3 6
6 3 6
Y ' = ( 0.5 0.0 ) +1.0 = 0 +1 = 1.0
6
4
2
1
3
3
5
4
3
Y ' = ( 0.5 0.0 ) +1.0 = 0 +1 = 1.0
6
4
2
1
3
3
5
4
3
1 1 2 1 1 2
Mean= 6.0 4.0 1 Mean= 6.0 4.0 1
St. Dev. = 2.98 2.31 0 St. Dev. = 2.98 2.31 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
SELF-ESTEEM (Predictor) SELF-ESTEEM (Predictor)
5
5/8/16
Drawing the best fit (regression) line Drawing the best fit (regression) line
Y-INTERCEPT = +1.0
Self-Esteem Optimism Self-Esteem Optimism
Scatterplot for Self-Esteem and Scatterplot for Self-Esteem and
10 7 Optimism 10 7 Optimism
9 5 9 5
10 10
9 4 9 4
OPTIMISM (Outcome)
OPTIMISM (Outcome)
9 9
7 8 7 8
8 8
6 5 7
6 5 7
6 3 6
6 3 6
6 1 5 6 1 5
4 3 4 4 3 4
2 3 3 2 3 3
1 1 2 1 1 2
Mean=
6.0
4.0
1 Mean=
6.0
4.0
1
St.
Dev.
=
2.98
2.31
0 St.
Dev.
=
2.98
2.31
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
SELF-ESTEEM (Predictor) SELF-ESTEEM (Predictor)
Drawing the best fit (regression) line Drawing the best fit (regression) line
Y ' = 0.5X +1.0 Self-Esteem Optimism
10 7
Scatterplot for Self-Esteem and
Optimism
Y ' = 0.5X +1.0 Self-Esteem Optimism
10 7
Scatterplot for Self-Esteem and
Optimism
9 5 9 5
10 10
X =0 9 4
X = 10 9 4
OPTIMISM (Outcome)
OPTIMISM (Outcome)
9 9
7 8 7 8
8 8
6 5 7
6 5 7
6 3 6 3
Y ' = ( 0.5 0.0 ) +1.0 = 0 +1 = 1.0
6
4
1
3
6
5
4
Y ' = ( 0.510.0 ) +1.0 = 10 +1 = 11.0
6
4
1
3
6
5
4
2 3 3 2 3 3
1 1 2 1 1 2
Mean= 6.0 4.0 1 Mean= 6.0 4.0 1
St. Dev. = 2.98 2.31 0 St. Dev. = 2.98 2.31 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
SELF-ESTEEM (Predictor) SELF-ESTEEM (Predictor)
Drawing the best fit (regression) line
Drawing the best fit (regression) line
X=0 Y'=1 X=10 Y'=6
Self-Esteem Optimism Self-Esteem Optimism
Y ' = 0.5X +1.0 10
9
7
5
Scatterplot for Self-Esteem and
Optimism
10
9
7
5
Scatterplot for Self-Esteem and
Optimism
10 10
9 4 9 4
OPTIMISM (Outcome)
OPTIMISM (Outcome)
9
X = 10 7
6
8
5
8
7
7
6
8
5
8
6
6 3 6 3
6 4
6 1 6 1
Y ' = ( 0.510.0 ) +1.0 = 5 +1 = 6.0
4
2
3
3
5
4
3
4
2
3
3
2
0
1 1 2 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Mean= 6.0 4.0 1 Mean= 6.0 4.0 SELF-ESTEEM (Predictor)
St. Dev. = 2.98 2.31 0 St. Dev. = 2.98 2.31
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
SELF-ESTEEM (Predictor)
6
5/8/16
Drawing the best fit (regression) line Drawing the best fit (regression) line
X=0 Y'=1 X=10 Y'=6 Y ' = 0.5X +1.0
Self-Esteem Optimism Self-Esteem Optimism
Scatterplot for Self-Esteem and Scatterplot for Self-Esteem and
10 7 10 7
Optimism Optimism
9 5 9 5
10 10
9 4 9 4
OPTIMISM (Outcome)
OPTIMISM (Outcome)
7 8 8 7 8 8
6 5 6 6 5 6
6 3 6 3
4 4
6 1 6 1
4 3 2 4 3 2
2 3 0 2 3 0
1 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Mean=
6.0
4.0
SELF-ESTEEM (Predictor) Mean=
6.0
4.0
SELF-ESTEEM (Predictor)
St.
Dev.
=
2.98
2.31
St.
Dev.
=
2.98
2.31
Raw scores
r = 0.645 slope = 0.50 Y-intercept = 1.0 Raw scores transformed to z-scores
Self-Esteem Optimism
12 Y' = 0.5x + 1.0 Self-Esteem Optimism
Zself-esteem Zoptimism
10 7
9 5 r2 = 0.417 10 7 1.34 1.30
10
9 4 9 5 1.01 0.43
8 9 4 1.01 0.00
7 8
0.34 1.73
OPTIMISM
6 5 7 8
6
6 5 0.00 0.43
6 3
4 6 3 0.00 -0.43
6 1
6 1 0.00 -1.30
4 3 2
4 3 -0.67 -0.43
2 3
2 3 -1.34 -0.43
1 1 0
-1.68 -1.30
Mean=
6.0
4.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 1
SELF-ESTEEM Mean=
6.0
4.0
Mean=
0.0
0.0
St.
Dev.
=
2.98
2.31
St.
Dev.
=
2.98
2.31
St.
Dev.
=
1.00
1.00
Z-scores Z-score & Raw score Scatterplots
r = 0.645 slope = 0.645 Y-intercept = 0.0 Z-score scatterplot Raw score scatterplot
with regression line with regression line
Zself-esteem Zoptimism
12 Y' = 0.5x + 1.0
1.34 1.30 2.00
2.00
Y' = 0.65X - 0.0 r2 = 0.417
1.01 0.43 1.50
Y' = 0.65X - 0.0 10
2
R = 0.417 r=+0.645 2 1.50
R = 0.417 r=+0.645
1.01 0.00
1.00 1.00 8
0.34 1.73
OPTIMISM
0.50
0.00 0.43 0.50 6
0.00 -0.43 0.00
0.00
-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 4
0.00 -1.30 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 -0.50
-0.50
-0.67 -0.43 -1.00
2
-1.34 -0.43 -1.00
-1.50 0
-1.68 -1.30 -1.50 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
-2.00
Mean= 0.0 0.0 -2.00
SELF-ESTEEM
St. Dev. = 1.00 1.00
7
5/8/16
Z-score & Raw score Scatterplots Predicting Y using the Regression Equation
Z-score scatterplot Raw score scatterplot Y' = 0.5X + 1.0
ZY = 0.0 + (.645 * X) Y = 1.0 + (0.5 * X)
12 Y' = 0.5x + 1.0 X
b
=
0.5
plus
1.0
2.00
r2 = 0.417 Self-Esteem times slope plus intercept
Y' = 0.65X - 0.0 10
1.50
R2 = 0.417 r=+0.645 10 5.0 6.0
1.00 8
9 4.5 5.5
OPTIMISM
0.50
6 9 4.5 5.5
0.00
-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 4 7 3.5 4.5
-0.50
6 3.0 4.0
-1.00
2
6 3.0 4.0
-1.50 0
6 3.0 4.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
-2.00
SELF-ESTEEM
4 2.0 3.0
2 1.0 2.0
1 0.5 1.5
Predicting Y using the Regression Equation Predicting Y using the Regression Equation
Y' = 0.5X + 1.0 Y' = 0.5X + 1.0
X b = 0.5 plus 1.0 X b = 0.5 plus 1.0
Self-Esteem times slope plus intercept Self-Esteem times slope plus intercept
10 5.0 6.0 10 5.0 6.0
9 4.5 5.5 9 4.5 5.5
9 4.5 5.5 9 4.5 5.5
7 3.5 4.5 7 3.5 4.5
6 3.0 4.0 6 3.0 4.0
6 3.0 4.0 6 3.0 4.0
6 3.0 4.0 6 3.0 4.0
4 2.0 3.0 4 2.0 3.0
2 1.0 2.0 2 1.0 2.0
1 0.5 1.5 1 0.5 1.5
Predicting Y using the Regression Equation Predicting Y using the Regression Equation
Y' = 0.5X + 1.0 Y' = 0.5X + 1.0
X b = 0.5 plus 1.0 X b = 0.5 plus 1.0
Self-Esteem times slope plus intercept Self-Esteem times slope plus intercept
10 5.0 6.0 10 5.0 6.0
9 4.5 5.5 9 4.5 5.5
Y = bX + a = .5X
9
7
+1.0 =4.5 5.5
(.510) +1.0
3.5 4.5
= 5 +1 = 6 9
7
4.5
3.5
5.5
4.5
6 3.0 4.0
Y = bX + a = .5X6 +1.0 = (3.0
.5 9 ) +1.04.0= 4.5 +1 = 5.5
6 3.0 4.0 6 3.0 4.0
6 3.0 4.0 6 3.0 4.0
4 2.0 3.0 4 2.0 3.0
2 1.0 2.0 2 1.0 2.0
1 0.5 1.5 1 0.5 1.5
8
5/8/16
Predicting Y using the Regression Equation Y' = 0.5X + 1.0
Y' = 0.5X + 1.0 PREDICTED
Self-Esteem Optimism OPTIMISM
X b = 0.5 plus 1.0
10 7
Self-Esteem times slope plus intercept 9 5
10 5.0 6.0 9 4
9 4.5 5.5 7 8
9 4.5 5.5 6 5
7 3.5 4.5 6 3
6 3.0 4.0 6 1
4 3
6 3.0 4.0
2 3
Y = bX + a = .5X64 +1.0 = (3.0
2.0
4.0
.5 7) +1.0
3.0
= 3.5 +1 = 4.5 1 1
Mean= 6.0 4.0
2 1.0 2.0
St. Dev. = 2.98 2.31
1 0.5 1.5
Y' = 0.5X + 1.0 Predicting from the regression
equation
X b = 0.5 plus 1.0
Self-Esteem times slope Y-Predicted Interpolation
10 5.0 6.0
1 0.5 1.5
Working within the tested limits
Y ' = bX + a = .5X0 +1.0 = (0.0
.550 ) +1.0
1.0 = 25 +1 = 24 Extrapolation
20 10.0 11.0
50 25.0 26.0 Going beyond the tested limits
100 50.0 51.0
-1 -0.5 0.5
-50 -25.0 -24.0
-100 -50.0 -49.0
1,000 500.0 501.0
INTERPOLATION EXTRAPOLATION
25 25
20 20
OPTIMISM (Outcome)
OPTIMISM (Outcome)
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
-6-5-4-3-2-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425 -6-5-4-3-2-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425
-5 -5
SELF-ESTEEM (Predictor) SELF-ESTEEM (Predictor)
9
5/8/16
Variables
OUTCOME VARIABLE
SATISFACTION WITH LIFE Scale
PREDICTOR VARIABLES
Tuckmans PROCRASTINATION scale
State-Trait ANXIETY Inventory
REGRET scale (created by authors)
DELAY OF GRATIFICATION scale
Bivariate Correlation Multiple Regression
r = - 0.24 LIFE
PROCRASTINATION PROCRASTINATION
SATISFACTION
= - 0.13
r = - 0.58 LIFE
ANXIETY SATISFACTION ANXIETY
= - 0.44
LIFE
SATISFACTION
r = - 0.47 LIFE = - 0.35
REGRET SATISFACTION REGRET
= + 0.27
DELAY OF r = + 0.31 LIFE DELAY OF
GRATIFICATION SATISFACTION GRATIFICATION
10
5/8/16
Path Analysis Path Analysis
= - 0.15
= - 0.44
= - 0.34
= + 0.37
Path Analysis Path Analysis
= - 0.15 = - 0.15
=+0
.28
Path Analysis Path Analysis
= - 0.15 = - 0.15
=+0
.28
=
+
+
0.3
0.3
2
11
5/8/16
Path Analysis
= - 0.15
=+0
.28
= - 0.44
=
+
0.3
2
= - 0.34
Path Analysis Path Analysis
= - 0.15 = - 0.15
.19
= -0
= + 0.37 = + 0.37
Path Analysis Path Analysis
= - 0.15 = - 0.15
3 3
.1 .1
-0 -0
= =
.19
= -0
= + 0.37 = + 0.37
12
5/8/16
Path Analysis Path Analysis
= - 0.15
= - 0.44
3
.1
-0
= = - 0.34
= -0.19
= + 0.37
13
5/8/16
14
5/8/16
15
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