Summary
Background In 2011, WHO member states signed up to the 25 25 initiative, a plan to cut mortality due to non- Published Online
communicable diseases by 25% by 2025. However, socioeconomic factors inuencing non-communicable diseases January 31, 2017
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/
have not been included in the plan. In this study, we aimed to compare the contribution of socioeconomic status to S0140-6736(16)32380-7
mortality and years-of-life-lost with that of the 25 25 conventional risk factors.
See Online/Comment
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/
Methods We did a multicohort study and meta-analysis with individual-level data from 48 independent prospective S0140-6736(17)30191-5
cohort studies with information about socioeconomic status, indexed by occupational position, 25 25 risk factors *These authors contributed
(high alcohol intake, physical inactivity, current smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and obesity), and mortality, for a equally to this work
total population of 1 751 479 (54% women) from seven high-income WHO member countries. We estimated the Joint last authors
association of socioeconomic status and the 25 25 risk factors with all-cause mortality and cause-specic mortality by Members are listed at end of
calculating minimally adjusted and mutually adjusted hazard ratios [HR] and 95% CIs. We also estimated the paper
population attributable fraction and the years of life lost due to suboptimal risk factors. Institute of Social and
Preventive Medicine and
Departments of Psychiatry and
Findings During 266 million person-years at risk (mean follow-up 133 years [SD 64 years]), 310 277 participants Internal Medicine, Lausanne
died. HR for the 25 25 risk factors and mortality varied between 104 (95% CI 098111) for obesity in men and University Hospital, Lausanne,
2 17 (206229) for current smoking in men. Participants with low socioeconomic status had greater mortality Switzerland (S Stringhini PhD,
C Carmeli PhD,
compared with those with high socioeconomic status (HR 142, 95% CI 138145 for men; 134, 128139 for Prof M Bochud PhD,
women); this association remained signicant in mutually adjusted models that included the 25 25 factors (HR 126, A M Lasserre MD,
121132, men and women combined). The population attributable fraction was highest for smoking, followed by Prof M Preisig MD,
physical inactivity then socioeconomic status. Low socioeconomic status was associated with a 21-year reduction in Prof P Vollenweider MD);
Institute of Behavioural
life expectancy between ages 40 and 85 years, the corresponding years-of-life-lost were 05 years for high alcohol Sciences, University of Helsinki,
intake, 07 years for obesity, 39 years for diabetes, 16 years for hypertension, 24 years for physical inactivity, and Helsinki, Finland
48 years for current smoking. (M Jokela PhD); Department of
Global Health and Social
Medicine, Kings College
Interpretation Socioeconomic circumstances, in addition to the 25 25 factors, should be targeted by local and global London, London, UK
health strategies and health risk surveillance to reduce mortality. (M Avendao PhD); Harvard T H
Chan School of Public Health,
Funding European Commission, Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Swiss National Science Foundation, the Boston MA, USA (M Avendao,
Prof I Kawachi PhD); Global
Medical Research Council, NordForsk, Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology. Research Analytics for
Population Health, Health
Copyright The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Policy and Management,
Columbia University, New
York, NY, USA
Introduction disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors in (Prof P Muennig MD); MRC-PHE
The 201320 World Health Organization (WHO) Global 21 world-regions.2 Despite the fact that low socioeconomic Centre for Environment and
Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Non- status is one of the strongest predictors of morbidity and Health, School of Public Health,
Department of Epidemiology
Communicable Diseases (NCDs) targets seven major premature mortality worldwide,36 poor socioeconomic
and Biostatistics, Imperial
risk factors, comprising the harmful use of alcohol, circumstances are not considered modiable risk factors College London, London, UK
insucient physical activity, current tobacco use, raised in these important global health strategies. (F Guida PhD,
blood pressure, intake of salt or sodium, diabetes, and Socioeconomic circumstances and their consequences M Chadeau-Hyam PhD,
Prof P Vineis PhD);
obesity (referred to as the 25 25 risk factors), with the are modiable by policies at the local, national, and
Epidemiology Unit, ASL TO3
overall aim of reducing premature mortality from non- international levels,79 as are risk factors targeted by Piedmont Region, Grugliasco,
communicable diseases by 25% by 2025.1 Similarly, the existing global health strategies. Evidence also suggests Italy (F Ricceri PhD,
Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Collaboration, the that the burden of most 25 25 risk factors is concentrated A dErrico MD);
EPIUnitInstitute of Public
largest study monitoring health changes globally, in lower socioeconomic groups worldwide.10,11 Inter-
Health, University of Porto,
performs an annual risk assessment of the burden of ventions to reduce premature mortality attributable to
Porto, Portugal
(Prof H Barros PhD, S Fraga PhD); Research in context
Department of Clinical
Epidemiology, Predictive Evidence before this study and consistency to those of six 25 25 risk factors (tobacco use,
Medicine and Public Health, Low socioeconomic status is one of the strongest predictors of alcohol consumption, insucient physical activity, raised blood
University of Porto Medical morbidity and premature mortality worldwide. However, global pressure, obesity, diabetes). Our study is one of the largest
School, Porto, Portugal
(Prof H Barros); Center for
health strategies do not consider poor socioeconomic studies to date to examine the association between
Research in Epidemiology and circumstances as modiable risk factors. The WHO Global Action socioeconomic status and premature mortality and the rst
Population Health, INSERM Plan for the Prevention and Control of Non-Communicable large-scale investigation to directly compare the importance of
U1018, Villejuif, France Diseases, for example, targets seven major health risk factors, socioeconomic circumstances as determinants of health with
(F Clavel-Chapelon PhD);
Department of Biological and
including insucient physical activity, current tobacco use. and six major risk factors targeted in global health strategies for the
Clinical Sciences, Universtiy of raised blood pressure, for reducing premature mortality from reduction of premature mortality.
Turin, Turin, Italy non-communicable diseases by 25% by 2025. Low socioeconomic
(Prof G Costa MD); INSERM, Implications of all the available evidence
status is not included among the 25 25 risk factors.
UMR1027, Toulouse, France By showing comparable health impact of low socioeconomic
(C Delpierre PhD, Added value of this study status to that of major risk factors, our study suggests that
M Kelly-Irving PhD); Universit
We used data from more than 17 million individuals in socioeconomic adversity should be included as a modiable risk
Toulouse III Paul-Sabatier,
UMR1027, Toulouse, France 48 independent cohort studies from seven countries, and factor in local and global health strategies, policies, and
(C Delpierre, M Kelly-Irving); found that the independent association between health-risk surveillance.
Population-based socioeconomic status and mortality is comparable in strength
Epidemiological Cohorts Unit,
INSERM UMS 11, Villejuif,
France (Prof M Goldberg MD,
M Zins MD); Paris Descartes
the 25 25 and other risk factors might therefore benet Two reviewers (SS and MK) independently assessed the
University, Paris, France
(Prof M Goldberg, M Zins); from greater focus on socioeconomic adversity so that studies. The quality of the study was judged as high if all
Cancer Epidemiology Centre, the preventive toolkit for addressing NCDs can be domains were assessed favourably (appendix).
Cancer Council Victoria, expanded. To examine this hypothesis, we collated
Melbourne, VIC, Australia
individual-level data from 48 independent prospective Denitions and data collection
(Prof G G Giles PhD);
Epidemiology and Prevention cohort studies from Europe, the USA, and Australia and Our measure of socioeconomic status is a social class
Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto aimed to determine the population attributable fraction measure based on an individuals last known
Nazionale dei Tumori, Milan, (PAF) and years of life lost (YLLs) due to low socio- occupational title at study enrolment, coded into the
Italy (V Krogh MD); Department
economic status and compared these with mortality and European Socio-economic Classication (ESEC). This
of Sociology, Trinity College
Dublin, Dublin, Ireland YLLs attributable to the 25 25 risk factors. variable was predened and harmonised across the
(R Layte PhD); University College study cohorts before statistical analyses were done.
London, Department of Methods Occupational position was categorised as high (higher
Epidemiology and Public
Health, London, UK
Study population professionals and managers, higher clerical, services,
(Prof M G Marmot FRCP, This study is part of an EC Horizon 2020 consortium, the and sales workers [ESEC class 1, 2, and 3]), intermediate
M J Shipley MSc, Lifepath project, which includes ten cohort studies. We (small employers and self-employed, farmers, lower
Prof A Steptoe Dsc, have complemented those data with publicly available supervisors, and technicians [ESEC class 4, 5, and 6]), or
Prof M Kivimki PhD);
Department of Public Health,
data from 38 additional cohort studies from the Inter- low (lower clerical, services and sales workers, skilled
Erasmus University Medical University Consortium for Political and Social Research workers, and semi-skilled and unskilled workers [ESEC
Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands and the UK Data Service. Our analyses were based on class 7, 8, and 9]). For one study (E3N), occupational
(Prof J P Mackenbach PhD); and participants whose occupational position was assessed at position was current occupation 2 years after baseline.
Clinicum, Faculty of Medicine,
University of Helsinki, Finland
baseline between 1965 and 2009, dependent on the study We used ESEC as a classication because it eliminates
(Prof M Kivimki) (appendix). The 48 studies comprised a total population the need to adjust for dierences in earnings and
Correspondence to: of 1 751 479 men and women from seven WHO member standards of living across dierent national contexts. We
Dr Silvia Stringhini, Institute of countries (UK, France, Switzerland, Portugal, Italy, USA, used individuals occupational class only because most
Social and Preventive Medicine Australia). All studies included baseline data for cohorts did not collect information about partners
(IUMSP), Lausanne University
Hospital, 10 Route de la
socioeconomic status and a mortality follow-up of a occupation. This decision could have led to some
Corniche, Lausanne 1010, minimum of 3 years. Each study was approved by the misclassication of socioeconomic status particularly for
Switzerland relevant local or national ethics committees and all older women with low labour force participation rates.
silvia.stringhini@chuv.ch participants gave informed consent to participate. We Each 25 25 risk factor comprised two or three
See Online for appendix assessed the quality of included studies using the categories to allow a balanced comparison with socio-
Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool for cohort studies.12 We economic status, which was grouped into three categories
For more on the Lifepath analysed a selection of exposed and non-exposed groups, (appendix). Self-reported smoking was categorised into
project see http://www.
lifepathproject.eu/
assessment of exposure, exclusion of the outcome of current smoker, former smoker, and never smoked.
For more on ESEC see https://
interest at study baseline, adjustment for confounding Alcohol consumption was measured in alcohol units per
www.iser.essex.ac.uk/archives/ variables, assessment of confounding variables, week and participants were categorised as abstainers
esec/user-guide assessment of outcome, and adequacy of the follow-up. (0 units per week), moderate (121 units per week for
men, 114 per week for women), or heavy (>21 units per model the baseline hazard using age as the timescale.
week for men, >14 per week for women) drinkers. Separate models were tted for men and women and
Although physical activity was measured with dierent included marital status and race or ethnicity (minimally
questions in each study, a dichotomised variable adjusted models). To check for the proportional hazard
indicating the presence or absence of physical activity assumption, we performed tests based on Schoenfeld
was dened (appendix). Body-mass index (BMI) was residuals and inspected log-log plots of Kaplan-Meier
categorised as normal (185<25 kg/m), overweight curves. Age stratication in 5-year intervals was
(25<30 kg/m), or obese (30 kg/m). Hypertension conducted in all cohorts as a sensitivity analysis to adjust
was dened as the presence of at least one of the for age calendar eects (results not shown).
following conditions: systolic blood pressure more than In further analyses combining men and women, we
140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure more than examined the association of socioeconomic status with
90 mm Hg, current intake of anti-hypertensive cause-specic mortality before and after adjustment for
medication, or self-reported hypertension. Diabetes was the 25 25 risk factors. The mutually adjusted models
dened as the presence of at least one of the following included age, sex, race or ethnicity, marital status,
conditions: fasting glucose more than 7 mmol/L, 2 h socioeconomic status, and all 25 25 risk factors as
post-load glucose above 111 mmol/L, glycated independent variables with total mortality and deaths
haemoglobin A1c more than 65%, or self-reported from cardiovascular disease, cancer, and other causes as
diabetes. Data for salt intake were only available from outcomes. To enable balanced comparisons between
less than a third of the cohort studies; we therefore socioeconomic status and 25 25 risk factors as
omitted this risk factor from our analysis. predictors of cause-specic mortality, these analyses
We considered age, sex, race or ethnicity, and marital were restricted to a subgroup of participants with
status as potential confounders. Race or ethnicity was complete data for socioeconomic status and the
categorised as white and non-white individuals. Marital 25 25 risk factors.
status was categorised as married or cohabiting versus To examine whether the association between socio-
living alone. economic status and mortality is attributable to the
Participants were linked to national mortality registries higher prevalence of the 25 25 risk factors among low
that provided information about vital status with the socioeconomic status individuals, we repeated the
exception of the COLAUS study in which vital status was analyses in a subgroup of participants without any
ascertained through active follow-up. Mean follow-up for 25 25 risk factors. Analyses were also repeated
mortality ranged between 32 years in the National specically focusing on premature mortality (<70 years)
Health Interview Survey 2009, and 270 years in men and and by restricting the population to cohorts in which
295 years in women of the Alameda County Study 1965, height and weight as well as blood pressure were
with a mean across cohorts of 133 years [SD 64 years]. measured objectively using standard procedures.
All-cause mortality, cancer mortality, cardiovascular To further evaluate the eects of socioeconomic status
disease mortality, and mortality from other causes of and the 25 25 risk factors on mortality, we computed the
death were examined separately. We focus on cancer and population attributable fraction. The population
cardiovascular disease as these diseases are the most attributable fraction is based on the HR and the
common causes of death in our samples. We used codes proportion of participants exposed assuming the
from the International Classication of Diseases, 10th association between exposure and outcome is causal.14
Revision (ICD-10) to dene cancer (C00C97) and The variance of population attributable fraction was
cardiovascular disease (I00I99) mortality. Other causes estimated via bootstrapping using 1000 independent
of death include all remaining deaths not classied as replications. The proportion of participants exposed
cancer or cardiovascular disease. (prevalence) was calculated as the mean prevalence
across all cohorts for each risk factor.
Statistical analysis YLLs were calculated as the dierence of the areas
Analyses were rst performed separately in each study; under the survival curves (from age 40 years to 85 years)
estimates were subsequently combined in a meta- comparing the population exposed to a given risk factor
analytical framework. In study-specic analyses, we with the reference population with no exposure. Area
considered the maximum number of participants under the curve was computed via numerical integration
without missing values for each exposure. To estimate with a spline-based method. Life expectancies were
the association between risk factors and mortality, hazard estimated conditional on survival to age 40 years. In view
ratios (HR) and 95% CIs were generated using exible of the truncation at age 85 years, the theoretical maximal
parametric survival models on the cumulative hazards life expectancy at 40 years old is 45 years. Variance
scale,13 which, in addition to the HRs, allow direct of YLLs was estimated via bootstrapping using
estimation of the conditional cumulative hazard function. 1000 independent replications.
Within these models, we used restricted cubic splines Study-specic HRs, PAF, and YLLs estimates were
with 0 to 4 (depending on the cohort) internal knots to meta-analysed using the Hartung-Knapp random-eects
Men
datasets. SS, PV, and MK had nal responsibility for the
Deaths Mean HR (95% CI) Weight decision to submit for publication.
follow-up (years)
COLAUS 55 616 208 (098438) 01%
NHIS 2009 86 322 123 (072211) 02%
Results
NHIS 2008 111 418 125 (078200) 02% 48 studies were included (appendix). After excluding
MIDUS 133 1161 121 (081181) 03% 27 392 (15%) of 1 778 871 participants who had missing
EPIPORTO 144 688 164 (094286) 02%
NHIS 2007 148 513 130 (085199) 03% data for the covariates or mortality, 1 751 479 participants
NCDS 159 745 174 (115264) 03% were included in the analysis (appendix). Mean age at
NHIS 2006 183 609 182 (129258) 04%
NHANES 2007 190 386 121 (085173) 04% study entry was 478 years (SD 148) and 54% of
NHANES 2005 234 573 117 (085160) 05% participants were women. The proportion of participants
NHIS 2005 290 700 109 (080148) 05%
NHIS 2003 291 910 114 (086150) 06%
with low occupational position ranged from 69% to
WLSS 360 1272 131 (104165) 09% 669% across studies (mean 414% [SD 125] for men
NHIS 2002 372 1005 190 (147247) 07% and 271% [SD 149] for women). The proportion of
NHANES 2003 381 739 119 (094149) 09%
NHIS 2001 463 1101 189 (149239) 09% people with a high occupational position varied between
NHANES 1999 479 1051 133 (107166) 10% 59% and 848% (mean 325% [SD 117] men and 261%
NHANES 2001 483 912 146 (119180) 11%
WLSG 502 1495 149 (123182) 12%
[SD 123] women). Age stratication revealed no age
NHANES II 528 1374 132 (105164) 10% calendar eects (data not shown).
NHIS 2000 530 1194 147 (119181) 11% During 12 025 208 person-years at risk for men,
NHIS 1999 540 1288 166 (134204) 11%
NHANES III 656 1447 139 (114169) 12% 161 524 men died; during 14 580 862 person-years at risk
WHITEHALL II 708 2040 157 (121204) 07% for women, a total of 148 753 women died (mean follow-
NHIS 1998 719 1378 147 (123175) 15%
EPIC Italy 758 1604 140 (105188) 06%
up for men and women 133 years [SD 34]). In men,
NHIS 1997 829 1473 145 (123170) 17% 43 765 (152% of total) with low occupational position
ELSA 840 730 146 (122174) 15% died and 17 160 (115%) with high occupational position
NHIS 2004 1115 815 153 (132177) 21%
NHANES I 1147 1858 148 (127172) 19% died. In women, 11 835 (94% of total) with low
NHIS 1996 1247 1545 155 (136178) 24% occupational position died and 8292 (68%) with high
HRS 1279 1728 150 (131171) 24%
HALS 1359 2023 145 (125168) 20% occupational position died. Participants with low
Alameda County 1547 2696 129 (112147) 24% occupational position had a higher mortality risk than
GAZEL 1935 2534 168 (148190) 28% did those with high occupational position, in both men
NHIS 1995 2293 1631 138 (125152) 39%
NHIS 1994 3029 1718 146 (134159) 48% (HR 142, 95% CI 138145; gure 1) and women
NHIS 1993 3090 1808 144 (132157) 49% (134, 128139; gure 2). Participants with inter-
NHIS 1986 3331 2369 141 (129153) 51%
NHIS 1992 3898 1983 136 (126147) 57% mediate occupational position had a higher mortality
NHIS 1991 4152 1975 132 (122142) 60% risk compared with participants with high occupational
NHIS 1990 4590 2059 137 (128148) 63%
NHIS 1989 4848 2141 140 (131150) 66%
position (meta-analytic HR 121, 95% CI 118124 for
NHIS 1988 5564 2221 137 (129146) 71% men and 117, 112122 for women). A graded
NHIS 1987 6018 2293 138 (129146) 74% association between occupational position and mortality
WHIP 21 049 1160 147 (136160) 50%
was observed in both men and women (HR for one unit
Pooled HR 142 (138145) 100% decrease in SES 119, 95% CI 117120 in men and
Prediction interval 133151
I=145%, =00008
115, 113118 in women, p<00001 for both).
05 10 25
Heterogeneity in study-specic estimates was low for
Figure 1: Mortality for low versus high occupational position in men in 46 cohort studies men (I=145% [041%], p=02034, =00008) and
HRs are adjusted for age, marital status, and race or ethnicity. Pooled HR is represented with a grey diamond and moderate for women (I=298% [0512%], p=00309,
the 95% prediction interval with a black bar. I statistic is the percentage of between study heterogeneity;
=00048).
statistic measures the inter-study variance. The prediction interval provides a predicted range for the true
association between occupational position and mortality. HR=hazard ratio. Figure 3 shows mortality associated with the 25 25 risk
factors (minimally adjusted models). The greatest
increases in mortality associated with the 25 25 risk
method.15 To assess heterogeneity between cohorts, we factors were for current smoking and diabetes, although
computed I and statistics; I to assess heterogeneity physical inactivity, high alcohol intake, and hypertension
attributable to variation in the true association and to were also associated (gure 3). The eect of low
measure the inter-cohort variance. To account for in occupational position appeared greater than that of
the uncertainty around the pooled estimates, we further hypertension or obesity (gure 3); the eect of low
calculated 95% prediction intervals for hazard ratios.16 occupational position on mortality was greater than that
of obesity even when the obesity analysis was restricted
Role of the funding source to cohorts with a mean follow-up more than 10 years
The funding sources had no role in the study design; in (>10 years; HR 112, 95% CI 105121 for men and 124,
the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; in the 118131 for women). 33 of 48 studies had complete
writing of the report; or in the decision to submit the data for occupational position and all 25 25 risk factors
paper for publication. CC and MJ had full access to the and had cause-specic mortality data, for a total of
275 973 participants with 21 923 deaths during the follow- Women
up (gure 4). The association between low socioeconomic Deaths Mean HR (95% CI) Weight
follow-up (years)
status and mortality was consistent across causes of
COLAUS 22 619 172 (0221315) 00%
death and remained signicant in the minimally adjusted EPIPORTO 68 642 247 (0591037) 01%
models and the mutually adjusted models (gure 4). The NCDS 80 772 117 (061223) 04%
MIDUS 91 1169 108 (063186) 05%
highest minimally adjusted HR was current smoking NHIS 2009 98 322 116 (071190) 06%
(gure 4). NHIS 2008 120 420 214 (131351) 06%
We assessed the PAF for socioeconomic status and the NHANES 2007 145 391 090 (056147) 06%
NHIS 2007 153 517 120 (080179) 09%
25 25 risk factors, assuming the associations with NHANES 2005 166 584 165 (102268) 07%
mortality are causal and that the risk could be reduced to NHIS 2003 177 916 160 (096266) 06%
NHANES II 187 1429 134 (076238) 05%
the level of the most favourable category for each factor NHIS 2006 219 611 135 (096191) 12%
(gure 5). We estimated the achievable reduction in WLSS 241 1306 105 (075145) 13%
mortality during the follow-up period should the death NHIS 2002 250 1013 161 (106244) 09%
NHIS 2001 284 1112 174 (121251) 11%
risk in the whole population equate that of high NHANES 2003 294 762 144 (105199) 14%
occupational position or the reference group for each of NHIS 2000 308 1209 125 (084185) 09%
NHANES III 322 1457 153 (106220) 11%
the 25 25 risk factors. The PAF for low SES was 1894% WHITEHALL II 328 2034 104 (074145) 12%
(95% CI 17632024) for men and 1533% (12761790) NHIS 2005 339 708 140 (106186) 17%
for women. The highest PAF was for smoking for men NHANES 1999 344 1095 144 (107195) 15%
GAZEL 367 2581 123 (087174) 12%
(2904%, 26903118) and for physical inactivity for WLSG 374 1524 172 (131226) 18%
women (2341%, 20422639). NHIS 1999 390 1302 173 (123244) 12%
NHANES 2001 402 939 119 (092153) 20%
In men and women combined, partial life expectancy NHIS 1998 446 1396 110 (079152) 13%
at 40 years was reduced by more than 2 years because of NHANES I 472 2030 108 (078149) 13%
low socioeconomic status (gure 6). All other NHIS 1997 496 1496 160 (120215) 16%
EPIC Italy 565 1530 109 (069174) 07%
25 25 factors assessed were associated with decreased HRS 686 1850 179 (144223) 25%
life expectancy, apart from BMI (gure 6). NHIS 1996 728 1563 166 (133207) 24%
ELSA 736 757 132 (108160) 29%
Additional sensitivity analyses including only western Alameda County 767 2947 107 (087130) 28%
European cohorts, restricting the analysis to premature NHIS 2004 1076 823 148 (123179) 31%
NHIS 1995 1307 1661 155 (130186) 32%
mortality (<70 years), to a subset of participants without HALS 1490 2128 157 (136182) 41%
the 25 25 risk factors (HR for low SES vs high SES 126, NHIS 1994 1725 1751 133 (114154) 41%
95% CI 112142), and to high quality studies or to NHIS 1993 1794 1843 134 (115155) 41%
NHIS 1986 1864 2460 130 (113150) 42%
cohorts with height and weight or blood pressure NHIS 1992 2138 2032 129 (113147) 46%
measured using standard procedures, yielded similar NHIS 1991 2278 2027 130 (114148) 47%
WHIP 2430 1060 096 (068136) 12%
results (appendix). NHIS 1990 2598 2116 128 (114145) 49%
NHIS 1989 2766 2203 118 (104132) 50%
Discussion NHIS 1988
NHIS 1987
3173
3292
2292
2382
136 (122153)
123 (110137)
53%
54%
We used individual-level data from more than 17 million E3N 6621 1683 128 (118139) 65%
individuals in 48 independent cohort studies to compare 134
Pooled HR (128139) 100%
the association of low socioeconomic status with Prediction interval 115155
mortality to those of six WHO 25 25 risk factor targets I=298%, =00048
05 10 25
for the reduction of premature mortality. We found that
the independent association between socioeconomic
Figure 2: Mortality for low versus high occupational position in women in 47 cohort studies
status and mortality is comparable in strength and HRs are adjusted for age, marital status, and race or ethnicity. Pooled HR is represented with a grey diamond and
consistency across countries to those for the 25 25 risk the 95% prediction interval with a black bar. The prediction interval provides a predicted range for the true
factors. Low socioeconomic status was associated with association between occupational position and mortality. HR=hazard ratio.
21 YLLs between ages 40 and 85 years, while the
corresponding years of life lost were 05 for high alcohol the eect of low socioeconomic status on premature
intake, 07 for obesity, 39 for diabetes, 16 for hyper- mortality and is to our knowledge the rst large-scale
tension, 24 for physical inactivity and 48 for current study to directly compare the importance of socio-
smoking in men and women combined. These ndings economic circumstances as determinants of health with
are largely consistent with previous studies,1719 which the six major risk factors targeted in global health
used income or education as a measure of socioeconomic strategies for the reduction of premature mortality. The
status. association between low socioeconomic status and
The strong inuence of socioeconomic factors on premature mortality was consistent across causes of
health, morbidity and mortality is well established,3,2025 death, whereas the 25 25 risk factors were generally
with studies showing a widening in inequalities in more strongly associated with cardiovascular disease
mortality22,25 despite absolute inequalities falling in some mortality than with cancer and with mortality of
countries.22,23 Our study is one of the largest to examine other causes.
leading to weight loss and increased mortality risk Risk factor Prevalence (%) PAF (95% CI)
among lean or underweight individuals.31,32 Hetero-
Low SES (intermediate/low)
geneity in study-specic estimates was generally low Men 251/424 1894 (1763 to 2024)
for occupational position, but larger for some of the Women 458/281 1533 (1276 to 1790)
Current smoking (former/current)
risk factors (appendix). This dierence could be due to Men 328/271 2904 (2690 to 3118)
varying degrees of precision in the measurement of the Women 209/210 2104 (1902 to 2307)
25 25 risk factors in the dierent cohorts, and random- Diabetes
Men 94 593 (485 to 700)
eect meta-analysis partially takes this uncertainty into Women 87 688 (576 to 800)
account for the estimation of pooled eects. Physical inactivity
Men 395 2616 (2301 to 2931)
Finally, the cohort studies participating in the Women 462 2341 (2042 to 2639)
LIFEPATH consortium were from high-income High alcohol intake
countries. Thus, our results might not be generalisable Men 100 434 (326 to 542)
Women 48 327 (234 to 420)
to other populations. Previous studies suggest that Hypertension
socioeconomic factors and the 25 25 risk factors are Men 380 976 (792 to 1160)
Women 314 821 (622 to 1020)
also strong predictors of premature mortality in low Obesity (overweight/obese)
and middle income countries.33 Further research should Men 439/194 557 (884 to 231)
Women 289/220 355 (135 to 574)
assess socioeconomic status and 25 25 risk factors in
predicting mortality in dierent economic settings. 10 0 10 20 20 40
Population attributable fraction (%)
Despite these limitations, our study has important
implications. Our ndings suggest that existing global Figure 5: Population attributable fraction for socioeconomic status and 25 25 risk factors
strategies and actions dened in the 25 25 health plan Calculations assume risk in the population at the level of the least exposed group. SES=socioeconomic status.
PAF=population attributable fraction.
and the Global Burden of Diseases surveillance
programme potentially exclude a major determinant of
health from the agenda. A lack of consideration of the Men
Years of life lost (95% CI)
interrelation between social circumstances and health is 45 26 (28 to 24) 56 (61 to 52) 41 (47 to 34) 28 (34 to 22) 06 (11 to 01) 19 (23 to 16) 04 (08 to 01)
also evident in the Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs): SDG 3 focuses on health but it makes no 40
Life expectancy (years)
No
No
te
No
al
w
nt
gh
e
ve
Ye
Ye
Ye
g
es
rm
a
Lo
rre
Hi
Hi
Ne
er
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