Statistical Analysis of Half-Time Scores in the NFL as a

predictor for Final Scores.

How often does the team that is winning at halftime go on to win the game? How
unusual is it for a team to be winning at halftime to go on to lose the game? Below

is a scatterplot that shows the halftime lead (RoadHome) for all 32 games that
took place the first 2 weeks of the 2012 regular season.

Scatterplot of Final Lead(Road-Home) vs HT Lead(Road-Home) Residuals Versus HT Lead(Road-Home)

(response is Final Lead(Road-Home))
20 20

10
Final Lead(Road-Home)

10

Residual
0

-10

-10
-20

-20
-30
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
HT Lead(Road-Home) HT Lead(Road-Home)

Regression Analysis: Final Lead(Road-Home) versus HT Lead(Road-Home)

Predictor Coef SE Coef T P

Constant -3.547 1.609 -2.20 0.035

HT Lead(Road-Home) 0.8636 0.1513 5.71 0.000

S = 8.86853 R-Sq = 52.1% R-Sq(adj) = 50.5%

Analysis of Variance

Source DF SS MS F P

Regression 1 2564.0 2564.0 32.60 0.000

Residual Error 30 2359.5 78.7

Total 31 4923.5

1. Is it appropriate for a linear model to be used in this situation? If not, explain

why. If it is, write the equation for the regression line below.

2. Interpret the slope and y-intercept of the regression line within the context of
the given problem. (The y-intercept actually has a very interesting
interpretation.)

3. If a gambler were tempted to make predictions of final scores by using this

model then by how many points would they be off, on average?

4. Last night, 10/15/2012, the San Diego Chargers were beating the Denver
Broncos 24-0 at halftime. Using the given model, by how much would we
predict the Chargers would win by?

5. The Chargers went on to lose that game by the score 24-35. What is the
value of this residual? Would you consider this data point an outlier if it was
added to the scatterplot? If so, describe the scatterplot and its influence on
the model.