Power Generation in the New Policies and 450 Scenar

Assumed investment costs, operation and maintenance costs and efficiencies in

Please note:
1) Years refer to time of plant becoming operational
2) Costs include owner's costs but exclude interest during construction
3) Plant efficiency is gross, LHV (lower heating value). The difference between lower and higher he
4) Capital costs presented are a weighted average based on deployment for the given scenario. Th
in some cases, this is offset by the deployment of more expensive resources/sites.
5) To convert to heat rate (Btu per kWh, HHV, sent out basis), use the formula:

6) Costs are expressed in US dollars (2012 values)

Exchange rates (2012) (1 US dollar equals:)
Australian dollar 0.97
British pound 0.63
Canadian dollar 1.00
Chinese yuan 6.31
Euro 0.78
Indian rupee 53.44
Japanese yen 79.81
Korean won 1125.93
Russian ruble 30.84

Quick Link to Sheets

Coal
Gas
CCS
Nuclear
Renewables
Renewables - Learning Rates
450 Scenarios
d efficiencies in the IEA World Energy Investment Outlook 2014

lower and higher heating value, based on IEA conventions, is 5% for coal and 10% for gas.
e given scenario. This results in general in decreasing investment costs due to learning and,

Heat rate = 1/(efficiency in %)*3412*a

a=1.05 for coal and 1.1 for gas (converts to HHV)
Example: Coal plant, 38% efficiency Heat rate= 9428
% for gas.
arning and,
 Capital costs
($2012 per kW)
2012 2020 2035
Steam Coal - SUBCRITICAL
Europe 1700 1700 1700
United States 1800 1800 1800
Japan 2100 2100 2100
Russia 1700 1700 1700
China 600 600 600
India 1000 1000 1000
Middle East 1300 1300 1300
Africa 1300 1300 1300
Brazil 1300 1300 1300
Steam Coal - SUPERCRITICAL
Europe 2000 2000 2000
United States 2100 2100 2100
Japan 2400 2400 2400
Russia 2000 2000 2000
China 700 700 700
India 1200 1200 1200
Middle East 1600 1600 1600
Africa 1600 1600 1600
Brazil 1600 1600 1600
Steam Coal - ULTRASUPERCRITICAL
Europe 2200 2200 2200
United States 2300 2300 2300
Japan 2600 2600 2600
Russia 2200 2200 2200
China 800 800 800
India 1400 1400 1400
Middle East 1800 1800 1800
Africa 2000 2000 2000
Brazil 1800 1800 1800
IGCC
Europe 2500 2500 2300
United States 2600 2600 2400
Japan 2900 2900 2700
Russia 2500 2500 2300
China 1100 1100 900
India 1700 1600 1500
Middle East 2100 2000 1900
Africa 2300 2200 2100
Brazil 2100 2000 1900
 NPS Scenario
O&M Costs Efficiency
($2012 per kW) (gross, LHV)
2012 2020 2035 2012 2020 2035

43 43 43 39% 39% 39%

45 45 45 39% 39% 39%
53 53 53 39% 39% 39%
51 51 51 39% 39% 39%
21 21 21 37% 37% 37%
35 35 35 34% 34% 34%
46 46 46 37% 37% 37%
39 39 39 35% 35% 35%
46 46 46 39% 39% 39%

60 60 60 43% 43% 43%

63 63 63 43% 43% 43%
72 72 72 43% 43% 43%
70 70 70 43% 43% 43%
28 28 28 41% 41% 41%
48 48 48 38% 38% 38%
64 64 64 41% 41% 41%
56 56 56 39% 39% 39%
64 64 64 43% 43% 43%

66 66 66 46% 47% 49%

69 69 69 46% 47% 49%
78 78 78 46% 47% 49%
66 66 66 46% 47% 49%
32 32 32 45% 46% 48%
56 56 56 41% 42% 44%
72 72 72 44% 45% 47%
70 70 70 42% 43% 45%
72 72 72 46% 47% 49%

88 88 81 45% 47% 51%

91 91 84 45% 47% 51%
102 102 95 45% 47% 51%
88 88 81 45% 47% 51%
50 50 41 44% 46% 50%
77 72 68 41% 43% 47%
95 90 86 43% 45% 49%
92 88 84 41% 43% 47%
95 90 86 45% 47% 51%
 450 Scenario
Capital costs O&M Costs Efficiency
($2012 per kW) ($2012 per kW) (gross, LHV)
2020 2035 2020 2035 2020 2035

1700 1700 43 43 39% 39%

1800 1800 45 45 39% 39%
2100 2100 53 53 39% 39%
1700 1700 51 51 39% 39%
600 600 21 21 37% 37%
1000 1000 35 35 34% 34%
1300 1300 46 46 37% 37%
1300 1300 39 39 35% 35%
1300 1300 45.5 45.5 39% 39%

2000 2000 60 60 43% 43%

2100 2100 63 63 43% 43%
2400 2400 72 72 43% 43%
2000 2000 70 70 43% 43%
700 700 28 28 41% 41%
1200 1200 48 48 38% 38%
1600 1600 64 64 41% 41%
1600 1600 56 56 39% 39%
1600 1600 64 64 43% 43%

2200 2200 66 66 47% 49%

2300 2300 69 69 47% 49%
2600 2600 78 78 47% 49%
2200 2200 66 66 47% 49%
800 800 32 32 46% 48%
1400 1400 56 56 42% 44%
1800 1800 72 72 45% 47%
2000 2000 70 70 43% 45%
1800 1800 72 72 47% 49%

2500 2300 88 81 47% 51%

2600 2400 91 84 47% 51%
2900 2700 102 95 47% 51%
2500 2300 88 81 47% 51%
1100 900 50 41 46% 50%
1600 1500 72 68 43% 47%
2000 1900 90 86 45% 49%
2200 2100 88 84 43% 47%
2000 1900 90 86 47% 51%
 NPS Scena
Capital costs O&M Costs
($2012 per kW) ($2012 per kW)
2012 2020 2035 2012
CCGT
Europe 1000 1000 1000 25
United States 1000 1000 1000 25
Japan 1100 1100 1100 28
Russia 800 800 800 28
China 550 550 550 18
India 700 700 700 25
Middle East 800 800 800 28
Africa 700 700 700 25
Brazil 700 700 700 25
Gas turbine
Europe 500 500 500 20
United States 500 500 500 20
Japan 500 500 500 20
Russia 450 450 450 23
China 350 350 350 18
India 400 400 400 20
Middle East 450 450 450 23
Africa 400 400 400 20
Brazil 400 400 400 20
CCGT - CHP
Europe 1300 1300 1300 39
United States 1300 1300 1300 39
Japan 1430 1430 1430 43
Russia 1040 1040 1040 42
China 715 715 715 29
India 910 910 910 36
Middle East 1040 1040 1040 42
Africa 900 900 900 36
Brazil 910 910 910 36
Fuel cell (distributed electricity generation)
Europe 6000 5000 2500 112
United States 6000 5000 2500 112
Japan 6000 5000 2500 112
Russia 6000 5000 2500 168
China 6000 5000 2500 168
India 6000 5000 2500 168
Middle East 6000 5000 2500 168
Africa 6000 5000 2500 168
Brazil 6000 5000 2500 168
 NPS Scenario 450 Sc
O&M Costs Efficiency Capital costs
($2012 per kW) (gross, LHV) ($2012 per kW)
2020 2035 2012 2020 2035 2020 2035

25 25 60% 61% 63% 1000 1000

25 25 60% 61% 63% 1000 1000
28 28 60% 61% 63% 1100 1100
28 28 58% 59% 62% 800 800
18 18 58% 59% 62% 550 550
25 25 57% 58% 60% 700 700
28 28 58% 59% 62% 800 800
25 25 58% 59% 62% 700 700
25 25 58% 59% 62% 700 700

20 20 39% 40% 42% 500 500

20 20 39% 40% 42% 500 500
20 20 39% 40% 42% 500 500
23 23 37% 38% 41% 450 450
18 18 37% 38% 41% 350 350
20 20 37% 38% 41% 400 400
23 23 37% 38% 41% 450 450
20 20 37% 38% 41% 400 400
20 20 37% 38% 41% 400 400

39 39 83% 84% 86% 1300 1300

39 39 83% 84% 86% 1300 1300
43 43 83% 84% 86% 1430 1430
42 42 81% 82% 85% 1040 1040
29 29 81% 82% 85% 715 715
36 36 80% 81% 83% 910 910
42 42 81% 82% 85% 1040 1040
36 36 81% 82% 85% 910 910
36 36 81% 82% 85% 910 910

100 50 45% 48% 57% 5000 2500

100 50 45% 48% 57% 5000 2500
100 50 45% 48% 57% 5000 2500
150 75 45% 48% 57% 5000 2500
150 75 45% 48% 57% 5000 2500
150 75 45% 48% 57% 5000 2500
150 75 45% 48% 57% 5000 2500
150 75 45% 48% 57% 5000 2500
150 75 45% 48% 57% 5000 2500
450 Scenario
O&M Costs Efficiency
($2012 per kW) (gross, LHV)
2020 2035 2020 2035

25 25 61% 63%
25 25 61% 63%
28 28 61% 63%
28 28 59% 62%
18 18 59% 62%
25 25 58% 60%
28 28 59% 62%
25 25 59% 62%
25 25 59% 62%

20 20 40% 42%
20 20 40% 42%
20 20 40% 42%
23 23 38% 41%
18 18 38% 41%
20 20 38% 41%
23 23 38% 41%
20 20 38% 41%
20 20 38% 41%

39 39 84% 86%
39 39 84% 86%
43 43 84% 86%
42 42 82% 85%
29 29 82% 85%
36 36 81% 83%
42 42 82% 85%
36 36 82% 85%
36 36 82% 85%

100 50 48% 57%

100 50 48% 57%
100 50 48% 57%
150 75 48% 57%
150 75 48% 57%
150 75 48% 57%
150 75 48% 57%
150 75 48% 57%
150 75 48% 57%
 Capital costs
($2012 per kW)
2012 2020 2035
Coal + CCS
Europe 3600 3600 2880
United States 3780 3780 2940
Japan 4100 4100 3300
Russia 3600 3600 2840
China 1500 1500 1540
India 2160 2160 1870
Middle East 2880 2880 2500
Africa 2880 2880 2340
Brazil 2880 2880 2500
Oxyfuel + CCS
Europe 3850 3850 3190
United States 4000 4000 3250
Japan 4300 4300 3550
Russia 3850 3850 3150
China 1700 1700 1750
India 2450 2450 2180
Middle East 3150 3150 2800
Africa 3500 3500 2850
Brazil 3150 3150 2800
IGCC + CCS
Europe 3625 3625 3050
United States 3770 3770 3130
Japan 4205 4205 3430
Russia 3625 3625 3030
China 1800 1800 1630
India 2436 2320 2130
Middle East 3016 2900 2630
Africa 3306 3190 2700
Brazil 3016 2900 2630
CCGT + CCS
Europe 1800 1800 1590
United States 1800 1800 1590
Japan 1980 1980 1750
Russia 1440 1440 1330
China 990 990 1070
India 1260 1260 1230
Middle East 1440 1440 1330
Africa 1260 1260 1090
Brazil 1260 1260 1230
 NPS Scenario
O&M Costs Efficiency
($2012 per kW) (gross, LHV)
2012 2020 2035 2012 2020 2035

108 108 87 34% 34% 35%

113 113 89 34% 34% 35%
123 123 100 34% 34% 35%
126 126 100 34% 34% 35%
60 60 62 32% 32% 33%
86 86 75 29% 29% 30%
115 115 100 32% 32% 33%
101 101 83 30% 30% 31%
115 115 100 34% 34% 35%

116 116 96 37% 38% 41%

120 120 98 37% 38% 41%
129 129 107 37% 38% 41%
116 116 95 37% 38% 41%
68 68 70 36% 37% 40%
98 98 87 32% 33% 36%
126 126 112 35% 36% 39%
123 123 100 33% 34% 37%
126 126 112 37% 38% 41%

127 127 107 36% 38% 44%

132 132 110 36% 38% 44%
147 147 120 36% 38% 44%
127 127 106 36% 38% 44%
81 81 73 35% 37% 43%
110 104 97 32% 34% 40%
136 131 120 34% 36% 42%
132 128 108 32% 34% 40%
136 131 120 36% 38% 44%

45 45 39 52% 53% 56%

45 45 39 52% 53% 56%
50 50 43 52% 53% 56%
50 50 45 50% 51% 55%
32 32 34 50% 51% 55%
44 44 41 49% 50% 53%
50 50 45 50% 51% 55%
44 44 36 50% 51% 55%
44 44 41 50% 51% 55%
 450 Scenario
Capital costs O&M Costs Efficiency
($2012 per kW) ($2012 per kW) (gross, LHV)
2020 2035 2020 2035 2020 2035

3600 2820 108 85 34% 35%

3780 2880 113 86 34% 35%
4100 3240 123 97 34% 35%
3600 2780 126 97 34% 35%
1500 1480 60 59 32% 33%
2160 1820 86 73 29% 30%
2880 2430 115 97 32% 33%
2880 2280 101 80 30% 31%
2880 2430 115 97 34% 35%

3850 3180 116 95 38% 41%

4000 3240 120 97 38% 41%
4300 3540 129 106 38% 41%
3850 3140 116 94 38% 41%
1700 1740 68 70 37% 40%
2450 2170 98 87 33% 36%
3150 2790 126 112 36% 39%
3500 2840 123 99 34% 37%
3150 2790 126 112 38% 41%

3625 3000 127 105 38% 44%

3770 3080 132 108 38% 44%
4205 3380 147 118 38% 44%
3625 2980 127 104 38% 44%
1800 1580 81 71 37% 43%
2320 2080 104 94 34% 40%
2900 2610 131 117 36% 42%
3190 2650 128 106 34% 40%
2900 2610 131 117 38% 44%

1800 1540 45 39 53% 56%

1800 1540 45 39 53% 56%
1980 1700 50 43 53% 56%
1440 1290 50 45 51% 55%
990 1030 32 33 51% 55%
1260 1190 44 42 50% 53%
1440 1290 50 45 51% 55%
1260 1050 44 37 51% 55%
1260 1190 44 42 51% 55%
 Capital costs
($2012 per kW)
2012 2020 2035
Nuclear
Europe 6600 6200 5000
United States 5000 5000 4650
Japan 4200 5500 5500
Russia 3800 3800 3800
China 2000 2800 2500
India 2800 2800 2800
Middle East 3500 3500 3500
Africa 4000 4000 4000
Brazil 4000 4000 4000
 NPS Scenario
O&M Costs Efficiency
($2012 per kW) (gross, LHV)
2012 2020 2035 2012 2020 2035

198 186 150 33% 33% 33%

150 150 140 33% 33% 33%
126 165 165 33% 33% 33%
133 133 133 33% 33% 33%
80 112 100 33% 33% 33%
112 112 112 33% 33% 33%
140 140 140 33% 33% 33%
140 140 140 33% 33% 33%
160 160 160 33% 33% 33%
 450 Scenario
Capital costs O&M Costs Efficiency
($2012 per kW) ($2012 per kW) (gross, LHV)
2020 2035 2020 2035 2020 2035

6200 4700 186 141 33% 33%

5000 4500 150 135 33% 33%
5500 5000 165 150 33% 33%
3800 3800 133 133 33% 33%
2800 2500 112 100 33% 33%
2800 2600 112 104 33% 33%
3500 3500 140 140 33% 33%
4000 4000 140 140 33% 33%
4000 4000 160 160 33% 33%
 NPS Scenario
Renewables - regional Capital cost Yearly O&M cost Efficiency
details ($2012 per kW) ($2012 per kW) (power generation %)
Note: average figures at
2012 2020 2035 2012 2020 2035 2012 2020
regional level
Biomass Power plant
Europe 2380 2290 2170 83 80 76 35% 35%
United States 2500 2420 2320 87 85 81 35% 35%
Japan 2400 2310 2220 84 81 78 35% 35%
Russia 2260 2210 2160 79 77 76 35% 35%
China 1610 1580 1540 56 55 54 35% 35%
India 2150 2090 2030 75 73 71 35% 35%
Middle East 2240 2130 2040 78 75 71 35% 35%
Africa 2160 2100 1990 76 73 70 35% 35%
Brazil 2220 2150 2090 78 75 73 35% 35%
Biogas - DG Industry
Europe 3000 2880 2740 114 109 104 30% 30%
United States 3020 2920 2790 115 111 106 30% 30%
Japan 3660 3530 3390 139 134 129 30% 30%
Russia 2660 2600 2540 101 99 96 30% 30%
China 2000 1960 1920 76 75 73 30% 30%
India 2170 2110 2050 83 80 78 30% 30%
Middle East 2590 2470 2360 98 94 90 30% 30%
Africa 2440 2370 2190 93 90 83 30% 30%
Brazil 2820 2740 2660 107 104 101 30% 30%
Biomass Cofiring
Europe 590 570 550 22 22 21 37% 37%
United States 630 610 580 24 23 22 37% 37%
Japan 600 580 550 23 22 21 37% 37%
Russia 570 550 540 21 21 21 37% 37%
China 400 390 390 15 15 15 37% 37%

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India 540 520 510 20 20 19 37% 37%
Middle East 560 530 510 21 20 19 37% 37%
Africa 550 530 510 21 20 19 37% 37%
Brazil 550 540 520 21 20 20 37% 37%
Biomass CHP Medium
Europe 4040 3890 3710 152 146 139 70% 70%
United States 4190 4060 3880 157 152 146 70% 70%
Japan 3990 3840 3690 150 144 138 70% 70%
Russia 3400 3320 3240 127 124 122 70% 70%
China 2250 2210 2160 84 83 81 70% 70%
India 2960 2880 2790 111 108 105 70% 70%
Middle East 3380 3260 3190 127 122 120 70% 70%
Africa 3310 3210 3130 124 121 117 70% 70%
Brazil 3660 3550 3440 137 133 129 70% 70%
Biomass CHP Small
Europe 5470 5290 5040 205 198 189 65% 65%
United States 5730 5550 5310 215 208 199 65% 65%
Japan 5480 5290 5070 206 198 190 65% 65%
Russia 5040 4930 4820 189 185 181 65% 65%
China 3590 3530 3450 135 132 129 65% 65%
India 4720 4480 4320 177 168 162 65% 65%
Middle East 4940 4700 4500 185 176 169 65% 65%
Africa 5010 4870 4530 188 182 170 65% 65%
Brazil 5020 4880 4720 188 183 177 65% 65%
Biomass - waste incineration - CHP
Europe 8500 8160 7820 323 310 297 50% 50%
United States 9210 8920 8520 350 339 324 50% 50%
Japan 8400 8100 7770 319 308 295 50% 50%
Russia 7600 7430 7390 289 282 281 50% 50%
China 5580 5480 5360 212 208 204 50% 50%
India 7260 7050 6820 276 268 259 50% 50%
Middle East 7500 7210 6920 285 274 263 50% 50%

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Africa 7320 7090 6790 278 269 258 50% 50%
Brazil 7750 7540 7300 295 286 277 50% 50%
Geothermal
Europe 2980 2920 2820 60 58 56 15% 15%
United States 2090 2020 1890 42 40 38 15% 15%
Japan 2850 2810 2730 57 56 55 15% 15%
Russia 2320 2250 2140 46 45 43 15% 15%
China 2110 2060 1950 42 41 39 15% 15%
India 2070 2000 1890 41 40 38 15% 15%
Middle East 2080 2020 1910 41 40 38 15% 15%
Africa 2620 2550 2320 52 51 46 15% 15%
Brazil 2660 2580 2450 53 52 49 15% 15%
Hydropower - large-scale
Europe 2270 2490 2890 53 58 67 100% 100%
United States 2510 2510 2500 62 61 61 100% 100%
Japan 2430 2400 2400 59 59 58 100% 100%
Russia 2040 2060 2150 51 52 54 100% 100%
China 1700 1740 1760 39 39 39 100% 100%
India 1900 2010 2320 45 47 54 100% 100%
Middle East 2070 2070 2080 51 51 51 100% 100%
Africa 1870 1910 2030 45 45 49 100% 100%
Brazil 2060 2130 2560 48 50 60 100% 100%
Hydropower - small-scale
Europe 4040 4040 4030 70 70 70 100% 100%
United States 4010 4000 3990 79 78 78 100% 100%
Japan 3920 3900 3890 75 74 74 100% 100%
Russia 3260 3300 3440 65 66 69 100% 100%
China 2120 2180 2260 41 42 43 100% 100%
India 2980 2990 3050 60 60 61 100% 100%
Middle East 3200 3190 3180 64 64 64 100% 100%
Africa 2990 2960 2930 60 59 59 100% 100%
Brazil 3410 3420 3480 65 65 66 100% 100%

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Solar photovoltaics - Large scale
Europe 2490 1780 1440 25 23 22 100% 100%
United States 3000 2230 1730 32 30 28 100% 100%
Japan 2950 2070 1650 30 27 26 100% 100%
Russia 3200 2260 1810 33 30 29 100% 100%
China 1850 1310 1050 18 17 16 100% 100%
India 2120 1490 1170 21 20 19 100% 100%
Middle East 2690 1840 1440 27 25 24 100% 100%
Africa 2590 1830 1440 26 24 23 100% 100%
Brazil 2550 1810 1420 26 24 22 100% 100%
Solar photovoltaics - Buildings
Europe 3250 2350 1910 33 30 30 100% 100%
United States 4450 3390 2620 45 43 42 100% 100%
Japan 5130 4010 3060 53 44 37 100% 100%
Russia 3710 2630 2090 37 34 33 100% 100%
China 2050 1460 1170 21 19 18 100% 100%
India 2530 1790 1550 25 23 23 100% 100%
Middle East 3670 2520 1960 37 34 32 100% 100%
Africa 3540 2490 1950 35 33 31 100% 100%
Brazil 3420 2370 1860 34 32 30 100% 100%
Concentrating solar power
Europe 7250 5880 4580 290 235 183 40% 40%
United States 5980 4830 3810 239 193 153 40% 40%
Japan n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
Russia n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
China 5310 4230 3330 212 169 133 40% 40%
India 5200 4170 3270 208 167 131 40% 40%
Middle East 5150 3800 2980 205 152 119 40% 40%
Africa 5250 3870 3010 210 155 120 40% 40%
Brazil 7450 5660 4430 288 226 177 40% 40%
Marine
Europe 7090 6150 3640 204 176 104 100% 100%

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United States 6830 5950 3460 205 178 104 100% 100%
Japan 6760 5870 3510 202 175 105 100% 100%
Russia n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
China 6930 6040 3660 198 173 105 100% 100%
India 6900 5980 3650 198 171 104 100% 100%
Middle East n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
Africa n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
Brazil n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

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Wind onshore
Europe 1790 1700 1630 46 43 41 100% 100%
United States 1890 1790 1710 47 45 43 100% 100%
Japan 1830 1730 1630 46 43 41 100% 100%
Russia 1570 1490 1430 39 37 36 100% 100%
China 1300 1260 1240 35 34 33 100% 100%
India 1510 1440 1420 39 37 36 100% 100%
Middle East 1580 1490 1420 40 37 36 100% 100%
Africa 1540 1450 1380 39 36 35 100% 100%
Brazil 1590 1530 1470 41 38 37 100% 100%
Wind offshore
Europe 5180 4000 3310 181 140 116 100% 100%
United States 5390 4090 3320 189 143 116 100% 100%
Japan 5190 3950 3220 182 138 113 100% 100%
Russia 4930 3810 3120 173 133 109 100% 100%
China 4440 3440 2860 155 120 100 100% 100%
India 4670 3600 2970 163 126 104 100% 100%
Middle East 4910 3820 3100 172 134 109 100% 100%
Africa 4680 3620 3030 164 127 106 100% 100%
Brazil 4810 3750 3050 168 131 107 100% 100%

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Scenario
fficiency Capacity factor Construction Time Capital cost
generation %) (%) (years) ($2012 per kW)

2035 2012 2020 2035 2012 2020 2035 2020 2035

35% 70% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0 3.0 2280 2160

35% 70% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0 3.0 2410 2280
35% 70% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0 3.0 2310 2180
35% 70% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0 3.0 2200 2110
35% 70% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0 3.0 1570 1510
35% 70% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0 3.0 2090 1990
35% 70% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0 3.0 2130 2000
35% 70% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0 3.0 2100 1960
35% 70% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0 3.0 2150 2050

30% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 2870 2720

30% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 2920 2750
30% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 3520 3360
30% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 2590 2530
30% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 1960 1880
30% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 2110 2010
30% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 2450 2310
30% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 2360 2180
30% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 2740 2620

37% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 570 540

37% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 600 570
37% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 580 550
37% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 550 530
37% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 390 380

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37% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 520 500
37% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 530 500
37% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 530 500
37% 70% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 540 520

70% 65% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0 2.0 3880 3710

70% 65% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0 2.0 4050 3820
70% 65% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0 2.0 3820 3620
70% 65% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0 2.0 3310 3200
70% 65% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0 2.0 2200 2150
70% 65% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0 2.0 2860 2760
70% 65% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0 2.0 3260 3140
70% 65% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0 2.0 3210 3080
70% 65% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0 2.0 3540 3390

65% 60% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 5270 4970

65% 60% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 5530 5220
65% 60% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 5270 4990
65% 60% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 4920 4740
65% 60% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 3520 3450
65% 60% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 4460 4260
65% 60% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 4700 4440
65% 60% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 4860 4350
65% 60% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0 2.0 4870 4660

50% 65% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0 3.0 8140 7680

50% 65% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0 3.0 8860 8360
50% 65% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0 3.0 8080 7650
50% 65% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0 3.0 7390 7310
50% 65% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0 3.0 5450 5250
50% 65% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0 3.0 7020 6680
50% 65% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0 3.0 7170 6770

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50% 65% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0 3.0 7060 6640
50% 65% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0 3.0 7520 7190

15% 70% 75% 80% 4.0 4.0 4.0 2900 2800

15% 73% 78% 80% 4.0 4.0 4.0 2010 1860
15% 64% 64% 64% 4.0 4.0 4.0 2760 2680
15% 68% 73% 78% 4.0 4.0 4.0 2240 2110
15% 68% 73% 78% 4.0 4.0 4.0 2030 1910
15% 65% 70% 75% 4.0 4.0 4.0 1970 1840
15% 65% 70% 75% 4.0 4.0 4.0 1980 1880
15% 65% 70% 75% 4.0 4.0 4.0 2540 2290
15% 65% 70% 75% 4.0 4.0 4.0 2550 2390

100% 26% 26% 26% 4.0 4.0 4.0 2640 3200

100% 33% 33% 33% 4.0 4.0 4.0 2510 2500
100% 24% 24% 24% 4.0 4.0 4.0 2400 2400
100% 43% 43% 43% 4.0 4.0 4.0 2060 2150
100% 38% 38% 38% 4.0 4.0 4.0 1740 1770
100% 37% 35% 35% 4.0 4.0 4.0 2180 3010
100% 25% 25% 25% 4.0 4.0 4.0 2080 2170
100% 50% 50% 50% 4.0 4.0 4.0 1970 2050
100% 54% 54% 54% 4.0 4.0 4.0 2130 2560

100% 30% 30% 30% 4.0 4.0 4.0 4040 4020

100% 30% 30% 30% 4.0 4.0 4.0 4000 3990
100% 30% 30% 30% 4.0 4.0 4.0 3880 3870
100% 40% 40% 40% 4.0 4.0 4.0 3300 3430
100% 40% 40% 40% 4.0 4.0 4.0 2210 2350
100% 30% 30% 30% 4.0 4.0 4.0 3070 3460
100% 30% 30% 30% 4.0 4.0 4.0 3160 3140
100% 50% 50% 50% 4.0 4.0 4.0 2940 2930
100% 50% 50% 50% 4.0 4.0 4.0 3420 3480

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100% 13% 16% 17% 1.5 1.5 1.5 1770 1300
100% 19% 19% 20% 1.5 1.5 1.5 2120 1540
100% 12% 14% 15% 1.5 1.5 1.5 2000 1480
100% 12% 12% 12% 1.5 1.5 1.5 1950 1560
100% 16% 18% 19% 1.5 1.5 1.5 1280 940
100% 16% 18% 20% 1.5 1.5 1.5 1440 1040
100% 20% 21% 22% 1.5 1.5 1.5 1810 1290
100% 20% 21% 22% 1.5 1.5 1.5 1790 1290
100% 16% 18% 19% 1.5 1.5 1.5 1780 1280

100% 12% 13% 14% 1.0 1.0 1.0 2280 1700

100% 16% 17% 17% 1.0 1.0 1.0 3300 2350
100% 13% 13% 14% 1.0 1.0 1.0 3890 2740
100% 9% 10% 10% 1.0 1.0 1.0 2590 1890
100% 14% 15% 16% 1.0 1.0 1.0 1430 1050
100% 15% 16% 18% 1.0 1.0 1.0 1750 1400
100% 17% 21% 21% 1.0 1.0 1.0 2470 1770
100% 16% 18% 19% 1.0 1.0 1.0 2440 1750
100% 14% 16% 17% 1.0 1.0 1.0 2320 1670

40% 37% 39% 41% 2.0 2.0 2.0 5710 3710

40% 45% 45% 45% 2.0 2.0 2.0 4700 3170
n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
40% 39% 42% 46% 2.0 2.0 2.0 4090 2800
40% 39% 40% 41% 3.0 2.8 2.5 4040 2680
40% 39% 40% 41% 3.0 2.8 2.5 3670 2710
40% 34% 40% 43% 3.0 2.8 2.5 3830 2550
40% 40% 42% 46% 3.0 2.8 2.5 5490 3800

100% 26% 28% 30% 4.0 4.0 4.0 6120 3350

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100% 31% 31% 31% 4.0 4.0 4.0 5850 3020
100% 31% 31% 32% 4.0 4.0 4.0 5840 3240
n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 3220
100% 29% 31% 34% 4.0 4.0 4.0 5890 3180
100% 30% 32% 35% 4.0 4.0 4.0 5970 3240
n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 3060
n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 3160
n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 3180

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100% 22% 23% 24% 1.5 1.5 1.5 1690 1600
100% 29% 30% 30% 1.5 1.5 1.5 1780 1700
100% 24% 26% 27% 1.8 1.5 1.5 1690 1600
100% 24% 26% 27% 2.5 2.0 1.5 1460 1390
100% 23% 25% 26% 1.8 1.5 1.5 1250 1210
100% 21% 23% 24% 1.8 1.5 1.5 1430 1380
100% 24% 25% 26% 2.5 2.0 1.5 1480 1400
100% 26% 26% 27% 2.5 2.0 1.5 1430 1380
100% 41% 42% 42% 2.5 2.0 1.5 1530 1460

100% 38% 41% 46% 2.5 2.5 2.5 4000 3030

100% 37% 39% 47% 2.5 2.5 2.5 4090 3030
100% 41% 42% 48% 3.0 2.5 2.5 3950 2930
100% 38% 38% 45% 4.0 3.5 2.5 3810 2850
100% 41% 42% 46% 3.0 2.5 2.5 3440 2600
100% 35% 40% 47% 3.0 2.5 2.5 3600 2700
100% 40% 43% 47% 4.0 3.5 2.5 3820 2850
100% 39% 41% 46% 4.0 3.5 2.5 3620 2770
100% 40% 45% 50% 4.0 3.5 2.5 3750 2820

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 450 Scenario
Yearly O&M cost Efficiency Capacity factor Construction Time
($2012 per kW) (power generation %) (%) (years)

2020 2035 2020 2035 2020 2035 2020 2035

80 76 35% 35% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0

84 80 35% 35% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0
81 76 35% 35% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0
77 74 35% 35% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0
55 53 35% 35% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0
73 70 35% 35% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0
74 70 35% 35% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0
73 68 35% 35% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0
75 72 35% 35% 70% 70% 3.0 3.0

109 103 30% 30% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0

111 105 30% 30% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0
134 128 30% 30% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0
99 96 30% 30% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0
74 72 30% 30% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0
80 76 30% 30% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0
93 88 30% 30% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0
90 83 30% 30% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0
104 100 30% 30% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0

22 20 37% 37% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0

23 22 37% 37% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0
22 21 37% 37% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0
21 20 37% 37% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0
15 14 37% 37% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0

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 20 19 37% 37% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0
20 19 37% 37% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0
20 19 37% 37% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0
20 20 37% 37% 70% 70% 2.0 2.0

146 139 70% 70% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0

152 143 70% 70% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0
143 136 70% 70% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0
124 120 70% 70% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0
83 81 70% 70% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0
107 104 70% 70% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0
122 118 70% 70% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0
121 116 70% 70% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0
133 127 70% 70% 70% 75% 2.0 2.0

197 187 65% 65% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0

207 196 65% 65% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0
198 187 65% 65% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0
185 178 65% 65% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0
132 129 65% 65% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0
167 160 65% 65% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0
176 166 65% 65% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0
182 163 65% 65% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0
183 175 65% 65% 65% 70% 2.0 2.0

309 292 50% 50% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0

337 318 50% 50% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0
307 291 50% 50% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0
281 277 50% 50% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0
207 199 50% 50% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0
267 253 50% 50% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0
272 257 50% 50% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0

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268 252 50% 50% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0
286 273 50% 50% 65% 65% 3.0 3.0

58 56 15% 15% 75% 80% 4.0 4.0

40 37 15% 15% 78% 80% 4.0 4.0
55 54 15% 15% 64% 64% 4.0 4.0
45 42 15% 15% 73% 78% 4.0 4.0
41 38 15% 15% 73% 78% 4.0 4.0
39 37 15% 15% 70% 75% 4.0 4.0
39 38 15% 15% 70% 75% 4.0 4.0
51 45 15% 15% 70% 75% 4.0 4.0
53 50 15% 15% 70% 75% 4.0 4.0

61 74 100% 100% 26% 26% 4.0 4.0

61 61 100% 100% 33% 33% 4.0 4.0
59 58 100% 100% 24% 24% 4.0 4.0
52 54 100% 100% 43% 43% 4.0 4.0
39 39 100% 100% 38% 38% 4.0 4.0
51 70 100% 100% 35% 35% 4.0 4.0
51 53 100% 100% 25% 25% 4.0 4.0
46 49 100% 100% 50% 50% 4.0 4.0
50 60 100% 100% 54% 54% 4.0 4.0

70 70 100% 100% 30% 30% 4.0 4.0

79 78 100% 100% 30% 30% 4.0 4.0
74 74 100% 100% 30% 30% 4.0 4.0
66 69 100% 100% 40% 40% 4.0 4.0
43 45 100% 100% 40% 40% 4.0 4.0
62 69 100% 100% 30% 30% 4.0 4.0
63 63 100% 100% 30% 30% 4.0 4.0
59 59 100% 100% 50% 50% 4.0 4.0
65 66 100% 100% 50% 50% 4.0 4.0

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 23 22 100% 100% 16% 17% 1.5 1.5
29 28 100% 100% 19% 20% 1.5 1.5
26 24 100% 100% 14% 15% 1.5 1.5
26 27 100% 100% 12% 12% 1.5 1.5
17 16 100% 100% 18% 19% 1.5 1.5
19 18 100% 100% 18% 20% 1.5 1.5
25 23 100% 100% 21% 22% 1.5 1.5
24 23 100% 100% 21% 22% 1.5 1.5
23 20 100% 100% 18% 19% 1.5 1.5

30 27 100% 100% 13% 14% 1.0 1.0

43 41 100% 100% 17% 17% 1.0 1.0
43 34 100% 100% 13% 14% 1.0 1.0
34 33 100% 100% 10% 10% 1.0 1.0
19 18 100% 100% 15% 16% 1.0 1.0
22 21 100% 100% 16% 18% 1.0 1.0
34 32 100% 100% 21% 21% 1.0 1.0
33 31 100% 100% 18% 19% 1.0 1.0
31 30 100% 100% 16% 17% 1.0 1.0

228 148 40% 40% 39% 41% 2.0 2.0

188 127 40% 40% 45% 45% 2.0 2.0
n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
163 112 40% 40% 43% 50% 2.0 2.0
162 107 40% 40% 39% 39% 2.8 2.5
147 108 40% 40% 39% 39% 2.8 2.5
153 102 40% 40% 44% 50% 2.8 2.5
220 152 40% 40% 46% 50% 2.8 2.5

175 94 100% 100% 41% 41% 4.0 4.0

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176 91 100% 100% 48% 48% 4.0 4.0
174 93 100% 100% 48% 48% 4.0 4.0
n.a 94 100% 100% n.a 40% n.a 4.0
170 92 100% 100% 45% 45% 4.0 4.0
169 92 100% 100% 46% 46% 4.0 4.0
n.a 92 100% 100% n.a 40% n.a 4.0
n.a 91 100% 100% n.a 40% n.a 4.0
n.a 92 100% 100% n.a 40% n.a 4.0

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 51 48 100% 100% 23% 23% 1.5 1.5
55 52 100% 100% 30% 31% 1.5 1.5
51 48 100% 100% 26% 28% 1.5 1.5
44 42 100% 100% 26% 29% 2.0 1.5
40 39 100% 100% 25% 29% 1.5 1.5
44 43 100% 100% 23% 25% 1.5 1.5
45 42 100% 100% 25% 26% 2.0 1.5
44 41 100% 100% 26% 27% 2.0 1.5
46 44 100% 100% 42% 43% 2.0 1.5

140 106 100% 100% 41% 46% 2.5 2.5

143 106 100% 100% 39% 47% 2.5 2.5
138 103 100% 100% 42% 48% 2.5 2.5
133 100 100% 100% 38% 45% 3.5 2.5
120 91 100% 100% 42% 46% 2.5 2.5
126 95 100% 100% 40% 47% 2.5 2.5
134 100 100% 100% 43% 47% 3.5 2.5
127 97 100% 100% 41% 46% 3.5 2.5
131 99 100% 100% 45% 50% 3.5 2.5

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 Technological learning
Renewables Category Plant specification assumed future learning rates

2012
Biomass Large-scale unit 5%
Medium-scale CHP 5%
Small-scale CHP 5%
Biogas 5%
Waste incineration 5%
Cofiring 5%
Geothermal Geothermal Elec Only 5%
Geothermal CHP 5%
Hydropower Large-scale unit 1%
Small-scale unit 1%
Photovoltaic Large-scale 18%
Buildings 18%
Concentrating Solar Power 10%
Marine 14%
Wind energy Onshore 5%
Offshore 9%