CE334 GR Patil

Transportation Systems Planning

1. System
A set of interrelated parts, called components, which perform number of
functions in order to achieve common goals.

Interface

System

Environment

Environment: a set of entities that are affected by a system and also have the
potential to affect the system. Entities outside the environment are not
considered for the modeling. Landuse is an environment of transportation
systems.

Classification of Systems
Deterministic and stochastic systems
Simple and complex systems
o Simple systems:
Small number of Elements
Few interactions between elements
Well defined law governs behavior
Does not evolve over time
Subsystem do not pursue their own goals
Eg. A pendulum, a wheel
o Complex systems:
Eg. Transportation Systems
Open systems and closed systems

An open system usually interacts with some entities in their environment.

A closed system is isolated from its environment. Eg. a sealed jar

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Manmade and natural systems

o Manmade: transportation system, water supply
o Natural: ecosystem, water cyle
Adaptive and non-adaptive systems

2. Planning
Defining a course of action to meet certain objectives

- The objectives are usually associate with enhancing efficiency

- Modeling is not necessarily planning
- We use models to support planning process

3. Model
A model is a simplified representation of any real world system. Models are
broadly classified into the following types.

1. Iconic model reality represented on a small scale, a large scale, or the

same scale ( wood or cardboard model of building)
2. Analog model traffic flow modeled as fluid flow
3. Abstract or conceptual model
- Symbolic model: use mathematics

A model can belong to all above categories.

Model structure
Variables and parameters

A typical model has an output vector

{} = { }

Here

{}= Output

= Functional relationship

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= Attributes

= Parameters

Structural relation

- Represents underlying theory

- Relates output to input and parameter vector

= 0 + 1

Algorithm

- Process to solve the problem represented as model

Model calibration model estimation; and model validation

Calibration finds parameters that optimize a performance measure which are a
function of observed data.

Estimation: finding the values of the parameters, which make the observed
data more likely under the model specification.

- One or more parameters can be judged non-significant and left out of

the model

Validation: comparing the model predictions which information not used

during the process of model estimation/calibration.

Aggregate and dis-aggregate models

Aggregate model represents the behavior of more than one individual

(Ex. Model for estimating No. of cars in a zone)

Dis-Aggregate model represents the behavior of individuals

(+) Greater accuracy

(-) Increased cost of data collection and modeling

Cross section and Time series

Cross-section data data revealed by a cross section of individuals at a single
point in time.

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(-) Data may correspond to a particular history of changes in the values of

certain key variables influencing choices (gasoline prices)

Time series data collected over time.

Revealed preference and stated preference

Revealed preference: observed choices and decisions

Stated preference: response to hypothetical choices

4. Transportation:
Movement of people and goods from one place to another.
Components of Transportation System

1. Physical Facilities: Roads, Railways tracks, Airports, Seaports, Pipelines

and Canals
2. Fleets of Vehicles, Aircrafts and Vessels
3. Operating bases and facilities: Vehicles maintenance facilities and offices
4. Organisations:
Facility oriented organisations Involved in planning designing,
constructing maintaining, and operating fixed facilities.
Eq. MMRDA, MORTH, etc

Operating Organisations (carriers):

Concerned with operating fleets to provide transportation services
Eq. BEST, MSRTC

5. Operating Strategies: Vehicles routing, scheduling and traffic control

Modes of Transportation

Based on the mode, transportation systems can be classified as

1. Highways system
2. Railways
3. Air Transportation

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4. Water Transportation
5. Continuous flow systems

The above transportation systems can be evaluated based following parameters

1. Ubiquity (Accessibility): Represents accessibility to system, directness of routing

between access points and the systems flexibility to handle a variety of traffic
conditions.

2. Mobility: Capacity of the system and speed

3. Efficiency (Productivity): Cost of transportation compared the productivity of

the system.

(Handout: Table 1-1)

A typical problems handled by transportation engineers

Major sub-areas in Transportation Engineering

Department of Civil Engineering IIT Bombay

CE334 GR Patil

Department of Civil Engineering IIT Bombay

CE334 GR Patil

Transportation System issues and challenges

1. Traffic Congestion: Traffic congestion is caused when the demand

exceeds the capacity of transportation system.

High growth in vehicles compared to the infrastructure growth.

In India, in 1981 there were 5.39 million registered vehicles, In 2006 the
number is 89.61 million.

The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of registered vehicle from

1951 to 2004 is 10.9 %, but the CAGR of total road, length is only 3.6 %

Poor public transportation

Mumbai locals carry 14 to 16 passengers per sq.mt of floor space
(Super dense crush load)
Congestion is also observed in Airports and Seaports.

2. Traffic Safety:

Worldwide 13 Lakh persons die every year in road accidents (WHO)

Worldwide, traffic accident is the number one reason of death of people
between 15 to 29 years of age
In India, on average, one person die every four minutes
Three thousand persons died in Mumbai from 2007 to 2011
90% of the deaths from are in low- and middle income countries. These
countries have less than 50% of the total vehicles
In western countries, the accidents are declining but not in India

3. Equality of Access:

How to provide adequate access to the transportation system for all

sorts of people
Poor, elders and physically handicapped are underserved.
Most transportation systems (except perhaps air transport) in India are
not accessible to handicapped people.
Poor people cannot afford to own cars.

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4. Environmental Protection:
Transportation systems have adverse impact on environment
Impacts on air quality System level
Energy consumption Impacts impacts
Land use impacts

Displacement of residents and business

Noise
Site specific
Impacts on wild life impacts
Impacts on water quality
Visual impacts
Impacts during construction

5. New Technology:
Introduction of railroad, airplane had on revolutionary impacts on
transportation systems.
New types of physical facilities, control systems, and institutional systems
had to be created to accommodate technological innovations.
In recent years considerable progress has been made towards various
intelligent transportation systems (ITS)

Eg. -Advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) - (signal coordination

ramp metering)
Advanced traveller information system- (traffic condition information,
(ATIS) route guidance)
Advanced vehicle control system (AVCS) (collision avoidance, criverless
public transit)

6. Funding:

Public agencies responsible for constructing and maintaining

transportation facilities usually do not have adequate fund.
Revenue generated from existing facilities is usually not sufficient
to construct new facilities and to maintain the existing ones.

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7. Institutional Arrangements:

In India there are too many institutes at local, state and national level
focussing on a specific mode of transportation without much
coordination.

Eg. BMC, MMRDA, MSRDC, Maharashtra state PWD, Central Railways,

Western Railways, MRVS, Port Authority of India, Ministry of Aviation,
Ministry of road transport and highways (MORTH), JNPT, SPT.........etc
are working to meets transportation demand in Mumbai.

8. Emergencies:
Transportation systems are vulnerable to terrorists strikes and
natural disasters
Every year monsoon in Mumbai disturbs the functioning of railways
and Road transportation
Because of people congregation transportation system are the
common targets of terrorists.(Mumbai trains blast, frequent bus
blasts all around the world)

5. The Design Process of a Transportation Facility

Developing a transportation facility is a mixture of technical, legal, and political
elements. Some facilities such as Airports may take more than 10 years from
the inception to the completion of the facility, but a few others (eg. Bypass
road) might take less than a year. Broadly the process of designing a
transportation facility can be divided into planning, traffic design, location,
physical design. Some of these phases need to repeat many times during the
process. These steps are followed with the construction phase. Specific tasks
involved in the design process are listed below. Figure 3.1 (handout) shows
many steps are iterative.

1. Deciding the type of facility: what facility or facilities are needed? For
example, should we go for metro, bus rapid transit system (BRTS),
monorail?

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2. Demand analysis: predict the traffic demand (no. of persons, number of

vehicles, or amount of freight) for the facility. Steps 1 and 2 are
interdependent.
3. Traffic performance analysis: After finalizing the type of facility, the
anticipated traffic demand with respect various features of the facility is
analyzed. This step includes finding capacities and evaluating the
performance of the system. For examples, how much aircraft traffic will
be handled by one run way, two runways, etc and under what level of
service.
4. Size of the facility: Based on the analysis in the step 3 (Traffic
performance analysis) the size of the facility is finalized. For example,
deciding the number of runways, number of lanes, or number of railway
tracks.
5. Location of the facility: Involves studying various alternatives and
selecting the best alternative.
6. Configuration and/or orientation of the facility: deciding the direction
of runways, selecting the highway interchange type
7. Physical design standards: Various design standards are available. This
is a policy matter for the organization designing the system.
8. Geometric design: Developing horizontal alignment and vertical
alignment
9. Design auxiliary systems: designing drainage, lighting, traffic control
etc.
10. Design surface or guideway: design of pavement or design of track
11. Estimate construction cost: detailed cost estimate is necessary before
the bid process begin.
12. Analyze project impacts: study environmental impacts, social impacts
of the facility
13. Evaluate design: designing a facility is an iterative process and needs
evaluation at various stages for different criteria such as physical
feasibility; economy; and social, environmental, economic impacts.

Department of Civil Engineering IIT Bombay

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6. Transportation Planning

Transportation planning involves

o Analyzing current travel patterns
o Forecasting future travel patterns (depends on the projects
that will be implemented)
o Proposing Transportation infrastructure and services
o Evaluation of the proposed projects

Planning Levels
Urban level

TAZ 2

TAZ 6
TAZ 1 TAZ 3

TAZ 4 TAZ 5

The main focus of this course

Regional level

Main focus is the on the links connecting major cities

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National level

- Depends on size of country

- Emphases on income distribution and also on equity

7. Demand Models
Important to know the current and future demand on various
transportation facilities (how to obtain?)

Demand on a facility is influenced by the travel activities in the much

bigger region around the facility

Predicting future demand requires developing a demand model for a city

or a region

Mumbai Metropolitan Regional Development Authority (MMRDA) has

developed a demand model for the entire Mumbai Metropolitan Region
(MMR) which includes Mumbai, Thane, Navi Mumbai, and many more
cities and towns

Tasks in Travel Demand Modeling

Developing Travel Demand Forecasting involves

Study area definition

Data collection (Traffic volumes, household survey, etc)

Defining network

Model Calibration for base year

Traffic forecasting and analysis

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8. Classic Four-stage model

Basis for Demand Model
The four steps demand model is based on the assumption that a trip
maker considers following four questions in the given order

1. To make a trip or not?

2. Where (Destination)?

3. What mode?

4. What route?

Is this a Realistic basis???

The four steps

The corresponding four steps in the same order

1. Trip Generation

How many trips will be produced or attracted?

2. Trip Distribution

Determines the origin and destination of trips produced or attracted in step 1.

3. Mode Split

Which mode of transportation will be used?

4. Traffic Assignment

Which route on the transportation network will be used?

Some times Mode split step is performed before trip distribution

Models have also been developed by performing two or more steps
simultaneously

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Structure of the classic transport model

Zones Base year Future

networks data planning data

Data base Future

Base year

Trip generation

Trip Distribution

Iterations The classic four-

stage model
Modal split

Assignment

Output
Evaluation

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