PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/1

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5.0 INTRODUCTION

So much in peoples lives is affected by chance. From the time

a person awakes until he or she goes to bed, that person makes
decision regarding the possible events that are governed at least in
part by chance. For example, should I carry an umbrella to class
today?
Will my motorcycle battery last until the end of the semester?
Should I accept a new job?

Probability as a general concept can be

defined as the chance of an event occurring. Probability
is the basis of inferential statistics. For example,
predictions are based on probability, and hypotheses are
tested by using probability.
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/2

5.1 PROBABILITY

A probability experiment is a chance process that leads to well-defined

results called outcomes.
An outcome is the result of a single trial of a probability experiment.
A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment.
An event consists of the outcomes of a probability experiment.

Some sample spaces for various probability experiments are shown here.

Experiment Sample space

Toss one coin Head, Tail
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Answer a true-false question True, False
Toss two coins Head-head, tail-tail, head-tail, tail-head

Example 5.1

1. a) Find the sample space for rolling two dice.

b) Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a family has three
children. Use B for boy and G for girl.

2. Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for the gender of three children
in a family, as in ACTIVITY 1B
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/3

Solution to Example 5.1

1. a

Since each die can land in six different ways, and two dice are rolled, the
sample space can be presented by a rectangular array. The sample space
is the list of pairs of numbers in the chart.

Die 1 Die 2
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
2 (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
5 (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
6 (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)

1. b

There are two genders, male and female, and each child could be either
gender. Hence there are eight possibilities, as shown here.

BBB BBG BGB GBB GGG GGB GBG BGG

2.

children

B G

B G B G

B G B G B G B G
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/4

ACTIVITY 5A

TEST YOUR UNDERSTANDING BEFORE YOU CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT

INTPUT!

1. Find the sample space for tossing two coins.

2. A die is rolled and a coin is tossed. Show the sample space.

PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/5

FEEDBACK TO ACTIVITY 5A

1. S = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H),(T,T)}

2.
Die 1 2 3 4 5 6
Coin (H, 1) (H, 2) (H, 3) (H, 4) (H, 5) (H, 6)
Head
(H))
Tail (T) (T, 1) (T, 2) (T, 3) (T, 4) (T, 5) (T, 6)
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/6

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5.2 CERTAIN AND COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS

When a die is rolled, the sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Now let us define
event A as number 1 appears on the dies surface, therefore complement of A
(written as A) consists of all the number on the dies surface excluding 1,
therefore A = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

Events can be presented pictorially by Venn diagrams. Figure (a) shows a simple
event E. The area inside the rectangle represents all the events in the sample
space(S). Figure (b)

Shows the complement of an event ( E ), which is the area inside the rectangle
but outside the circle representing E.

S - S
E
E
E
Eee

Fig a Fig b
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/7

SET DESIGNATIONS

1. Sample space, S is represented by elements in a rectangle. Any event, E

is represented by its elements in a circle.

2. E or E is the complement of E. E means event E never occurred.

3. E1 E 2 means either E1 or E2 or both have occurred.

S
E1 E2
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/8

4. E1 E 2 means both occurred.

E1 E 2
5. E1 and E2 are two mutually exclusive events in which E1 E 2 = . They
have no shared outcomes.

E1 E 2
S

6. E1 , E 2 , E 3, .....E n are mutually exclusive and finite if and only if

i) Ei E j for every i and j,
ii) E1 E 2 E3 ...... E n S

E1 E2 E4

E3 E5
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/9

5.2.2 SET IDENTITIES

The following identities can be used if there is a need.

1. A A A 8. A B B A
2. A 9. A ( B C ) ( A B) ( A C )
3. A S S 10. A ( B C ) ( A B) ( A C )
4. A A A 11. ( A B )' A' B '
5. A B B A 12. ( A B )' A' B '
6. AS A 13. A B A ( A' B)
7. A 14. B ( A B ) ( A' B )

Example 5.2

1. A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and B = {1, 3, 6, 7}, find:

i) A B
ii) A B
iii) n( A B)

2. A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, B = {2, 4, 6} and C = {3, 5, 7, 9}, find:

i) A B
ii) A C
iii) B C
iv) A B C
v) n ( A B C )
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/10

Solution to example 5.2

1. i) A B = {1, 3, 6}
ii) A B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7}
iii) n ( A B ) = n(A) + n(B) n ( A B ) = 6 + 4 3 = 7

*If A, B and C are finite sets, therefore:

n( A B C ) n( A) n( B ) n(C ) n( A B ) n( A C ) n( B C ) n( A B C )

2. i) A B = {2, 4, 6}
ii) A C = {3, 5}
iii) BC = { }
iv) A B C = { }
v) ( A B C )
n( A) n( B ) n(C ) n( A B) n( A C ) n( B C ) n( A B C )
=6+3+4320+0
=8
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/11

ACTIVITY 5B

TEST YOUR UNDERSTANDING BEFORE YOU CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT

INPUT!

1. Find the sample space for tossing two coins.

2. Nasir normally has one type of drink after lunch everyday. He randomly
drinks tea, coffee or simply plain water. If event A represents Mamat has
one type of drink after lunch, list down the elements in the sample space
S and event A. Find the relationship between the sample space and the A
set.

3. If n (A B) = 45, n( A B ) 5 , and n(B) = 22, find n(A).

PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/12

FEEDBACK TO ACTIVITY 5B

1. S = {HH, HT,TH,TT)

2. S={tea, coffee, water}, A = {tea, coffee, water}, therefore S = A

3. 28
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/13

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5.3 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY

Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine the numerical probability

that an event will happen. One does not actually have to perform the experiment
to determine that probability. Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in
the sample space are equally likely to occur. For example, when a single die is
rolled, each outcome has the same probability of occurring. Since there are six
outcomes, each outcome has a probability of 16 .

Equally likely events are events that have the same probability of
occurring

Formula
Formulafor
forClassical
ClassicalProbability
Probability
The
Theprobability
probabilityofofany
anyevent
eventEEisis
_____Number
_____Numberofofoutcomes
outcomesininE____________
E____________
Total
Total number of outcomes in thesample
number of outcomes in the samplespace
space
This
Thisprobability
probabilityisisdenoted
denotedby
by

This
Thisprobability
probabilityisiscalled
calledclassical
classicalprobability,
probability,and
anditituses
uses
the sample space S.
the sample space S.

Probability Rule 1
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/14

The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction or decimal) between

and including 0 and 1. This is denoted by 0 P( E ) 1 .
Probability Rule 2
If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the even contains no members in the sample
space), the probability is zero.
Probability Rule 3
If an event is certain, the probability of E = 1.
Probability Rule 4
The sum of the probabilities of the outcomes in the sample space is 1

The next example illustrates

the probability rules

Example 5.3

1. If a family has three children, find the probability that all the children are girls.

2. When a single die is rolled, find the probability of getting a 9.

3. When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of getting a number less

than 7?
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/15

Solution to Example 5.3

1. The sample space for the gender of children for a family that has three
children is BBB, BBG, BGB, GBB, GGG, GGB, GBG, and BGG. (see t6he
tree diagram in the basic concepts section). Since there is one way in eight
possibilities for all three children to be girls,

1
P(GGG) = 8

2. Since the sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, it is impossible to get a 9.

Hence, the probability is P(9) = 06 0

3. Since all outcomes, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, are less than 7, the probability is

P(number less than 7) = 6

6
1

** (Rule 4) For example, in a roll of a fair die, each outcome in the sample
space has a probability of 16 . Hence, the sum of the probabilities of the
outcomes is as shown.

Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability 1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
Sum 1
6 + 1
6 + 1
6 + 1
6 + 1
6 + 1
6 =1
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/16

ACTIVITY 5C

TEST YOUR UNDERSTANDING BEFORE YOU CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT

INPUT!

1. What is the probability of throwing a number greater than 4 with a die whose
faces are numbered from 1 to 6?

2. In a competition a prize is given for correctly forecasting the results of six

football matches. If a competitor sends in ten different forecasts, what is the
probability, that he receives the prize?

3. a) One red and one black marble are concealed in a bag. Find the
probability of drawing a red marble.
b) When three red and one black marbles are placed in the bag, find the
probability of drawing one red marble. What is the probability of drawing
one black marble?

4. A box contains 132 rivets of which 32 are undersized, 47 are oversized and
62 are satisfactory. Determine the probability of drawing at random:
(a) one undersized; (b) one oversized; and
(c) one satisfactory rivet from the box.

5. Four hundred resistors are examined and 6% are found to be defective.

Determine the probability that one selected at random will be defective and
also the probability that it will not be defective.

6. A purse contains 7 copper and 13 silver coins. Determine the probability of

selecting a copper coin when one is taken at random.

7. Determine the probability of winning a prize in a raffle by buying 3 tickets,

when there are 7 prizes and a total of 450 tickets sold.

8. Determine the probability of an event not happening when the probability of it

happening is 7/93.
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/17

FEEDBACK TO ACTIVITY 5C

1. 1/3 or 0.33 or 33 13 %

2. 0.0137 or 1.37%

3. (a) , (b) and

23 47 31
4. (a) (b) (c)
132 132 66

3 47
5. ,
30 50

7
6.
20

7. 7/150

8. 86/93
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/18

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5.4 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS

The
Thecomplement
complementofofan anevent
eventEEisisthe
theset
setofofoutcomes
outcomesininthe
thesample
samplespace
space
that
thatare
arenot
notincluded
includedininthetheoutcomes
outcomesofofevent
eventE.E.The
Thecomplement
complementofofEEisis
denoted
denotedbybyEEoror(read
(readEEbar).
bar).
Rule
Rulefor
forcomplementary
complementaryevents
events

Formula for empirical probability

Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event being in a given
class is

f
P(E)= , of which f is frequency for the class and n is the total
n
frequencies in the distribution
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/19

Example 5.4

1. 25 students were asked if they like this module. The responses were
classified as yes, no, or undecided. The results were categorized in a
frequency distribution, as shown. Find the probability that a person
responded no.

Response Frequency
Yes 15
No 8
Undecided 2
Total 25

2. In a sample of 50 students, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A blood, 5

had type B blood, and 2 had type AB blood. Set up a frequency
distribution and find the following probabilities:
a. A student has type O blood
b. A person has type A or type B blood
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood
d. A person does not have type AB blood

3. Hostel records indicated that students stayed in the hostel for the number
of days during school break shown in the distribution.

Number of Frequency
days stayed
3 127
4 32
5 56
6 19
7 5
Total 127

Find the probabilities.

a. A student stayed exactly 5 days.
b. A student stayed less than 6 days
c. A student stayed at most 4 days.
d. A student stayed at least 5 days.
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/20

4. Based on the Venn diagram below, A and B are two events in the sample
space S. Find:

S 40

B
A 35
aAr 5 20

a. P(A) (g) P ( A' B )

b. P(A) (h) P ( A' B ' )
c. P(B) (i) P ( A B )
d. P(B) (j) P ( A B ' )
e. P( A B) (k) P ( A' B )
f. P( A B' ) (l) P( A' B ' )
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/21

Solution to Example 5.4

1. P(E)= n 258
f

2.
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5 f 21
i. P(O) =
AB 2 n 50
O 21 22
ii. P(A or B) = 50 505 50
27

Total 50 (Add the frequencies of

the two classes)
iii. P(neither A nor O) = 505 502 507 (Neither A nor O means tat a
student has either type B or type AB blood).
iv. P(not AB) = 1 P(AB) = 1 502 50 48
24
25

3. a) P(5) = 56
127
b) P(less than 6 days) = 15 32 56 103
127 127 127 127 (Less
than 6 days means either 3, or 4 or 5 days.)

c) P(at most 4 days) = 15

127
127
32
127
47
(At most 4 days means 3 or 4
days.

56
d) P(at least 5 days) = 127 127
19
127
5
80
127 (At least 5 days means
either 5, or 6, or 7 days.)

4. n(S) = 35 + 5 + 20 + 40

n( A) 40 2
a. n(A) = 40 and P(A) =
n( S ) 100 5
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/22

n( A' ) 60 3
b. n(A) = 60 and P(A) =
n( S ) 100 5
n( B ) 25 1
c. n(B) = 25 and P(B) =
n( S ) 100 4
n( B ' ) 75 3
d. n(B) = 75 and P(B) =
n( S ) 100 4
n( A B ) 5 1
e. n(A B) = 5 and P(A B) =
n( S ) 100 20
n( A B ' ) 35 7
f. n(A B) = 35 and P(A B ) =
n( S ) 100 20
P ( A' B ) 20 1
g. n(A B) = 20 and P(A B) =
n( S ) 100 5
P ( A' B ' ) 40 2
h. n(A B) = 40 and P(A B) =
n( S ) 100 5
P( A B) 60 3
i. n(A B) = 60 and P(A B) =
n( S ) 100 5
P( A B' ) 80 4
j. n(A B) = 80 and P(A B) =
n( S ) 100 5
P ( A' B ) 65 13
k. n(A B) = 65 and P(A B) =
n( S ) 100 20
n( A' B ' ) 95 19
l. n(A B ' ) = 95 and P(A B) =
n( S ) 100 20

ACTIVITY 5D
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/23

TEST YOUR UNDERSTANDING BEFORE YOU CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT

INPUT!

1. If there are 50 tickets sold at a raffle and on person buys 7 tickets, what is
the probability of that person winning a price?

2. A survey found that 53% of Polytechnic students think this module is the best
of all the modules ever published. If a student is selected at random, find the
probability that he or she will disagree or have no opinion at all.

3. A couple has three children. Find each probability.

a) Of all boys
b) Of all girls
c) Of exactly two boys or two girls
d) Of at least one child of each gender

FEEDBACK TO ACTIVITY 5D
PROBABILITY THEORY DCC 3132/5/24

7
1. 50
2. 47%
3 3
3 a. 18 b. 1
4 c. 4 d. 4