Marketing Lessons of the 2016

Presidential Elections by Josiah Go

Posted by: Josiah Go May 20, 2016

The May 9, 2016 presidential election was one of the most vicious and ruthless elections
ever with administration candidate Mar Roxas and incoming president Rody Duterte getting
most of the hostilities. Criticism on the shortcomings of the Aquino presidency came initially
from vice president Jejomar Binay, who resigned from the cabinet of President Benigno
Aquino III on June 22, 2015 before filing his candidacy in October 2015. The same attacks
also came from senator-turned-vice-presidential candidate Bongbong Marcos, who did the
rounds in universities for a few years promoting the best of his fathers Martial Law days as
compared to the Aquino regime, an alleged attempt at revising the history of the Philippines.

While healthy economic gains and high growth rates have been the strongest
accomplishments of the Aquino government, the lack of inclusive growth where poverty and
unemployment still abound, was a persistent complaint. Since administration-backed
candidate, Secretary Mar Roxas was expected to compete with VP Binay for the 2016
presidency, the positioning of Daang Matuwid (the straight path) as a continuation of
President Aquinos achievements against corruption and gains in economic growth, was a
good foil to the economic claim (ganito kami sa Makati) of then frontrunner VP Binay, who
was already facing a string of cases involving corruption and ill gotten wealth, including
negative reports on his familys political clout and dynasty.

This obsessive focus on Daang Matuwid became a problem when a repositioning was needed
to be done as it was already included in the filing of the Certificate of Candidacy (COC) of the
LP tandem as the official candidates nickname in the ballot. From a pool of five
candidates, Mar Roxas was initially number four, managing to improve his ranking to
number two, which was not enough to win against the unorthodox Mayor Rody Duterte
whose strength of character, experience and will became strengths when issues were
reframed against Daang Matuwid.

Branding and Positioning:

Daang Matuwid was the campaign slogan of President Aquino against the administration of
former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo in 2010. In 2005, 42% of Pulse Asia respondents
considered Arroyo as the most corrupt president in Philippine history. Since the
circumstances surrounding VP Binays corruption scandal had similarities with Arroyo,
the Daang Matuwid brand was used a second time for this elections. But it came with two
problems.
1. Despite high economic growth, Daang Matuwid had negative brand associations of
indifference, incompetency and inaction unlike when it was first used. Prosperity was not
inclusive and many did not feel the gain. The President was also unable to terminate the
services of people perceived close to him, in high profile cases reported in media such as the
mystery of laglag/tanim bala in the airport, the long lines in MRT where even adding more
trains became tainted with corruption accusations, and even the simple unavailability of car
plates and drivers license plastic cards all added to the brands negative association.

2. When ratings for VP Binay started to deteriorate and Davao Mayor Rody Duterte surged
ahead of other candidates including erstwhile frontrunner Senator Grace Poe, the relevance
of Daang Matuwid became secondary as corruption was no longer as important an issue with
VP Binays rating hitting all-time lows, and therefore unlikely to become the next president.

Daang Matuwid was no longer relatable to at least three fourths of the voters since Mayor
Rody Duterte had a single-minded message of getting rid of criminality, including big time
drug lords. Mayor Dutertes track record in Davao has been rock solid and did not have the
corrupt image association of VP Binay. Since positioning is communicating the relevance and
differentiation relative to competition, how was Daang Matuwid going to solve the new pain
points pointed out by Mayor Duterte? While criminality was not the top concern of the
citizens, Mayor Duterte was able to bring out a latent need and reprioritized this problem to
be top of mind. He also promised to do things fast, the only candidate who gave a timetable
to his platform. Although the negative association of Daang Matuwid brought forth by VP
Binay and Senator Marcos still had to be corrected, the Liberal Party was confronted with a
newer and bigger challenge.

This was the story of David versus Goliath retold in Philippine politics, a story of logic more
powerful than reason. A charismatic underdog and an uncultured provincial mayor
somewhere from far away Mindanao against a giant of a cabinet secretary born to a
political royal family with no less than the Philippine president endorsing and campaigning
for him. The new David of Philippine politics had to bring his five stones and ensure that the
first one will hit Goliath hard in the battlefield. That first stone was data-driven social media
(as compared with the traditional and often unexciting promotion campaigns from the camp
of Sec. Roxas).

Key Factors for Success:

Historically, winning a presidential election, like winning market shares in the marketplace,
entails a lot of mass media advertising to be top of mind. For Mayor Duterte, preparation
and organization were done in 2015 with some regional TV advertising pre-testing as early
as 2014.

The game changer in advertising weight was in social media as Mayor Dutertes followers
dominated this channel. Not only did Mayor Dutertes team hire hundreds of call center
agents doing the offense for his social media campaign, he had a lot of townmates who
experienced his leadership first hand in Davao defending him. There were lots of
psychological warfare such as making him look like the hesitant candidate first, then a series
of firsts in presidential elections fake endorsements and memes. Propaganda was used as
offense. His followers and supporters were quick to adopt, some even used fake social media
accounts accusing Sec. Roxas of so many things like incompetency, corruption and even
rape, and that the Liberal Party was going to cheat in order to win all of which were
untrue.

In contrast, the social media campaign of Sec. Roxas started late and was not as
aggressive. It was quite reactive as some of his voters held back, having experienced being
ridiculed and cyber-bullied, with curse words thrown at them with the intent of silencing
them. Many of Sec. Roxas followers were talking to each other in their exclusive Facebook
fan page and only came out to campaign when Duterte was already gaining. Some
volunteers of Sec. Roxas also initiated their share of propaganda against other candidates
but as perception is reality in marketing, it was already too late to change perception and
the team of Sec. Roxas was no match to Mayor Dutertes keyboard warriors. One wonders if
the team of Sec. Roxas had a social media strategy in the first place.

Message Memorability:
Mayor Duterte gave many quotable quotes, one of them claiming he did not mind going to
hell if his constituents will live a heavenly life reinforcing his track record of being iron-
willed against criminals, with a promise to run after drug lords. But he also communicated
visually. He folded his barong sleeves during televised presidential debates, wore checkered
shirts and did not button the top of his shirt that resonated with the man on the street. He
used rituals like kissing the Philippine flag each time he goes up the stage during his
campaign rallies and even flashed his middle finger, reinforcing his image as an action man
ready to make things happen for love of country.

The message of Daang Matuwid by then sacrosanct, was eventually altered by Sec. Roxas to
include the willingness to correct past mistakes, but that too came too late. The term was
not the only problem, as toward the end of the second presidential debate, Sec. Roxas
added the term Disenteng Pilipino (decent or honorable Filipino) to describe what he stood
for. It was no doubt a clear differentiation from the foul-mouthed Mayor Duterte who was
gaining ground. Still disente was offensive to some while condescending to others who
were not yet for Mar. This alienated Mar even further and enphasized his elitist background
more. Imagine, Mar was perceived as not being sympathetic to the daily grind of the masses
and now referring to them as being not disente. The Duterte die-hard fans protested,
citing how their idol swapped himself in exchange for a hostage in the past and now he is
being discredited as not being disente. The Duterte camp succeeded in finding weaknesses
for each strength presented by their competitors. In marketing, differentiation is only the
second step; brand relevance should be clearly established before targeting for brand
preference. What was the value proposition offered by using the word disente in the first
place? How was this going to solve the daily pain points (long MRT lines, unemployment,
etc.) experienced by the masa?

This was also the time some of the followers of many presidentiables started calling the
followers of Duterte as Dutertards connoting being retarded (Duterte followers countered
by calling the Liberal Party Yellowtards). Alternatively, they were
called Bobo or Bobotante (stupid voters) for having blind loyalty to Duterte. Thanks to
self-inflicted injuries, the remarks solidified the emotional connection of the Duterte
followers to their idol. To them, they were just bold and brave just like Duterte, but certainly
not bobo as looked down by others. Now they have more reasons to be united. They were
ready not just to protect their idol but also themselves and many even cyber abused anyone
against their idol, including those calling their idol a demagogue.

Many identified Duterte followers as having cognitive dissonance. Imagine having a foul-
mouthed candidate offending trading partners like USA, Australia, Singapore and even the
Pope. But to most Duterte followers, these were all evidence of his fearlessness. In exit polls
conducted by TV5-SWS, note that Dutertes support came mostly from younger, more
educated, higher class, more urban men who are not Catholic.

On the other hand, many businessmen who did not know Duterte were not for him. They
were nervous because of his connection to the communist party and his unorthodox ways,
including the so-called Davao Death Squad to drive out criminals in Davao where he
admitted to having killed a few criminals himself.

Indeed for the first time, a major presidential candidate candidly admitted he had no
economic platform of his own and will just borrow the platform of his fellow candidates. But
he promised to act swiftly just like what he did in Davao. For his track record as mayor for 22
years, he was both well loved and feared. His strength in execution skills as a local
executive, his charisma and track record were able to offset his many weaknesses especially
from his foul-mouth. His followers became witnesses (apologists to non followers) that the
context of his cussing was his impatience to get things done for the people.

For Sec. Roxas, many knew his various high level positions held in government but didnt
know his specific achievements and they only started looking for the answers when
confronted with a question, an accusation or a fake meme. Many also did not know where to
find the answers so they kept quiet and failed to rebut in social media. His website was a
nosebleed as the masa will either unlikely understand the heavy contents or be
discouraged to continue reading. Needless to say, website visits have gone down an average
of 5% a year for the last so many years as the first source in getting information according
to Universal McCann. The few pieces of information which did make the first rounds of
workplace talks were too few to be effective. When Sec. Mars achievements, such as being
called the father of the business process outsourcing industry in the Philippines, the cheaper
medicine acts, Oplan Lambat-Sibat (which resulted to 716 arrests of the 946 most wanted,
high profile criminals in the country) were surfaced, half of the minds of the people were
already made up, the other half being engaged by followers of other presidentiables as a
credit grabber.

Message Persuasiveness:

Conversion was hard from the beginning as many people were torn between Mayor Duterte
and either Sec. Mar Roxas and Senator Grace Poe. This easily split the base of Sec. Mars
market. Sen. Grace Poes positioning of Goberynong may Puso (government with a heart)
did well in the beginning and at one point was the front runner as many people
commiserated with her being a foundling. The possibility of being disqualified due to a
residency issue as well as whether she would be considered a natural born Filipino also
made some people sympathize with her. When obstacles were removed by the Supreme
Court, her rating started to deteriorate as people became aware of her skeletons in the
closest (her pledging allegiance to the US at one time, her husband being an American
citizen, her being endorsed and/or supported by many traditional political leaders like Erap
Estrada and Danding Cojuangco).

And then Sec. Mar tried to look like masa, at least thats how his handlers tried to resonate
him with 90% of the voters who are masa. This too was unsuccessful and in fact backfired
for lack of authenticity.

In Metro Manila where MRT is located, Daang Matuwid had another negative connotation; the
long lines during rush hours defeated the purpose of saving travel time. There were legal
issues that Sec. Roxas tried to resolve in favor of the commuters. But the daily grind became
unsolved annoyances. Commuters remembered the constant message of President
Aquino Kayo ang boss ko, which was now an unfulfilled promise magnified by the Duterte
group as concrete evidence to not to vote for continuity. If only customer satisfaction metrics
formed a major part of the performance evaluation and retention of all government leaders,
this could have been avoided.

With economic progress came a false sense of security, it was a fallacy to bank on metrics of
economic gains, they were simply countered with more questions on why the poor cannot
feel the gains and similar questions that tended to end discussions with no resolutions.

As most people rejected the continuation of Daang Matuwid team of President Aquino, his
anointed Sec. Mar carried the brunt. A different branding could have avoided this crisis,
identifying and addressing consumer pain points could have zeroed-in on their latent
needs. Involving the real pulse of the masa in top-level campaign planning could have
ensured more relevance and a reality check. Pre-testing key messages could
have recognized if it had double meaning, and a pre-mortem in defense marketing could
have anticipated most, if not all, of the worst scenarios. Sec. Roxas got a tenth of Metro
Manila voters, the commuters voted with their feet and started believing what was peddled
to them that the administration has been incompetent and bureaucratic with analysis
paralysis. They presented proof that Metro Manila has broken down, with unfulfilled brand
promises and that the real danger was not Mayor Duterte, but giving the administration
candidate another chance.

Cluster of Competitive Advantages:

When the criminality message of Mayor Duterte sank in, he persuaded everyone with
another single-minded message that connected to his first message, that he will get things
done and needed no new economic platform. He will just copy the ones of his predecessor,
praising them while reminding that many promises have remained promises. His anti-crime
and fearless persona, his promise to make things happen, his brutally frank charisma all
became a cluster of advantages. It became harder and harder for other candidates to bring
him down. The anger of the people were enough reasons to turn a deaf ear on Mayor
Dutertes foul mouth, this angry segment who wanted instant solution and quick fixes even
helped promote the battle cry: Change is coming!

In the final few days before the election, Mayor Duterte picked up endorsements of major
non-Catholic groups such as Iglesia Ni Cristo. This also helped cement some of the
undecided voters, 18% of them, some waiting to follow whats trending. Mayor Dutertes
number of total voters was about 39% of all votes from his previous 33% pre-election rating.
This in contrast to an estimated 23.4% of his nearest rival, Sec. Mar, up from his 18-22%
pre-election rating.

Organization and Distribution:

Words were being spread that political machinery can deliver additional 10% of the
votes, referring to the clout of the Liberal Party. In reality the actual votes gathered by Mar
Roxas on election day was statistically insignificant from his pre-election rating. But elections
involve many positions, Mars running mate, Congresswoman Leni Robredo, was surging
pretty well, from a mere 1% preference rating in 2015 to gaining a tie in the top spot with
Senator Bongbong Marcos, the only son of the political adversary of the Aquino clan. She
had a much greater chance if she were continuously supported versus the well-funded
Marcos. Electing a Marcos would simply make futile the Edsa People Power of 1986 that saw
Pres. Aquinos mother, President Corazon Aquino, come to power and topple Martial Law
dictator, the elder Ferdinand Marcos. Many Filipinos who experienced the loss of freedom
and democracy during the Martial Law days came out in full force to stop the revisionist
history being peddled by the Marcos camp and found Rep. Robredo the ideal candidate who
can stop Senator Marcos and still inspire the Filipino people. From a scarce resource
allocation perspective, the LP placed their bet on the winning horse Rep. Leni Robredo so the
Liberal party can continue to make a difference.

It is noteworthy to mention that the combined votes of Mar Roxas and Grace Poe totaled
45% which exceeded that of Rody Dutertes. Perhaps, under a two party system, the true
sentiments of the majority can be expressed in the future. Meantime, Rody Duterte has
promised he will watch his mouth carefully, that he wishes everyone to reconcile, and that
he will even fly to the Vatican to make amends with the Pope a good start acknowledging
what he needs to improve perhaps an acknowledgment that his immediate job-to-be-done,
is to unify Filipinos painfully divided by this election.

Mayor Rody Duterte is the next president of the Philippines, and for those who did not vote
for him (like me), we will need to have a different paradigm and perspective in evaluating
people and situations under his administration. It is now the duty of each and every Filipino
citizen to help make Brand Philippines grow, prosper, thrive, and this entails all of us helping
Presumptive President-elect Duterte succeed.

Brand Relaunch:

As for Sec. Mar Roxas, will he relaunch in 2022? The field by then might be much more
crowded with possible contenders Vice President Leni Robredo, Senators Alan Cayetano,
Grace Poe, Bongbong Marcos, Frank Drilon and comebacking secretary Gibo Teodoro, and
who knows, even neophyte senator Joel Villanueva who might do a Grace Poe (i.e., finishing
top in the senatorial race and then running for higher position). And since boxing icon Manny
Pacquiao has become a senator himself, he may just want to follow the branding footstep of
Erap Estrada and target the presidency no less.

Lets learn the lessons of this 2016 Philippine elections in a way where we must appreciate
the freedom of speech we have from our democracy, so we can engage each other in
meaningful discussions in the future, for our future. We cannot afford to be divided,
or stay wounded. We must be one Filipino people for our one and only beloved Philippines.