CE: 5730 PROBABILITY METHODS IN CIVIL ENGG.

ASSIGNMENT-3

Date: 14 February 2017 Submission Date: 18 February 2017

1. The strain energy in a linearly elastic bar subjected to force S is given by

L
U S2
2 AE
where L is the length of the bar, A is the cross sectional area of the bar and E is the modulus
of the elasticity of the elastic material. If S is a standard normal variate N (0, 1), determine
the density function of U.
2. In an idealized model of a one storey building, the total mass m is concentrated at the roof
level. When subjected to earthquake ground shaking, the building will vibrate about its
original (at rest) position, inducing velocity components X and Y of the mass, with a resultant

velocity Z X 2 Y 2 . If X and Y are, respectively, standard normal variates, that is, with
distribution N (0, 1), determine the probability distribution of the resultant kinetic energy of
the mass during an earthquake.
3. If X and Y are statistically independent normal variates with means and standard deviations
x, x and y, y respectively, then show that the distribution of Z=X+Y is also a Gaussian
distribution with mean z= x+ y and z2= x2+ y2.
4. The settlement of footing on sand may be estimated on the basis of the theory of elasticity
a follows:
PBI
S
M
where
S = footing settlement, in feet
P = average applied bearing pressure in tons per square foot (tsf)
B = smallest footing dimension, in feet
I = influence factor dependent on footing geometry, depth of embedment, and depth to hard
stratum
M = modulus of compressibility
 Assume that P, B, I and M are independent log-normal variates with parameters p, B, I, M
and P, B, I, M respectively. The following values are given for the design of a particular
footing
Mean Coefficient of Variation
P (tsf) 1.0 0.10
B (tf) 6.0 0
I 0.6 0.10
M (tsf) 32.0 0.15
a. Determine the mean settlement of the footing and its coefficient of variation.
b. If the maximum allowable settlement is 2.5in., what is the reliability against
excessive settlement; that is, probability of no excessive settlement.
c. If the variability in M can be decreased by investing for better information, say
reducing the coefficient of variation to 5% at an expense of $100, would you spend
this money? Assume that the maximum exceedance of the maximum allowable
settlement would involve a damage cost of $50,000.
5. The lengths of two rods will be determined by two measurements with an unbiased
instrument that makes random error with mean 0 and standard deviation, in each
measurement. Compute the variance in the estimation of the lengths T1 and T2 by the
following methods:
a. The two rods are measured separately
b. The sum and difference of the lengths of the two rods are measured instead of the
individual lengths.
6. Consider a 5m high column supporting a load S, which is inclined at an angle from the
vertical. Here S and are random variables with respective means and standard deviations
S 100 Newtons S 20 Newtons

30 5
Determine the mean value and standard deviation of the maximum bending moment on the
column induced by the inclined load. Assume that S and and statistically independent.

7. The capital cost (in $1000) of a combined municipal activated sludge plant may be estimated
as follows:
 S0 S
Cc 583Q 0.84 (110 37Q) (77 23Q)( S 1)
200 200
in which Q is the flow rate in million gallons per day (mgd); S0 is the biological
concentration of influent BOD (biological oxygen demand) in milligram per litre (mgl); SS
is the concentration of suspended solids (in mg/l). Suppose that a waste water treatment
plant is needed for the following conditions:
mean flow rate, Q = 5 mgd

mean BOD concentration, S 0 = 600 mg/l

mean concentration of suspended solids, S S = 200 mg/l

with coefficients of variation 30%, 20% and 15% respectively.
Determine the average capital cost of the plant, and corresponding standard deviation.
8. Let Y = aX + b. If X = N (, ), then find the values of a and b such that Y = N (0, 1).
9. Let Y = X2. Find and sketch the pdf of Y if X is a uniform r.v. over (-1, 2).
10. Consider two r.v.s X and Y with joint pdf pXY (x,y). Determine the pdf of Z=XY.