The Dynamics of Water, Energy, Waste and

Environment (WEWE) Systems

Eng Seng CHIA, Qiaoyi CHEN

Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Faculty of Engineering

National University of Singapore
1 Engineering Drive 2, Singapore 117576

Email : iseces@nus.edu.sg
Phone: (65)6516-6431
Copyright 2012 by Eng Seng CHIA. Published and used by INCOSE with permission.

Abstract. The application of system engineering to a single system is well established and
much research is currently been done to study the systems engineering of system of systems.
However, many systems are not tightly coupled together although their relationships can be
complex and changes over time. In such systems, the need for system integration is less, but
there is a need to study their interactions especially the effects they have on one another. This
paper is focused on the water, energy, waste and environment systems (WEWE) of Singapore.
A system dynamics model of WEWE centered on the water system is created to study the
tradeoffs between the systems and to evaluate the effectiveness and impact of water policies
on the WEWE systems. This paper further discusses whether Singapore will be able to
respond to its growing population, their rising demand for water and energy and their
increasing waste level, without damaging the environment and makes recommendation on
sustainable development policies based on the findings.

1. Introduction
Singapore is a small city-state of about 700 km2 with limited natural water resources and a
population of about 5 millions. There is a need for Singapore to manage its resources
especially its water and energy resources prudently in anticipation of future population
growth. UN studies (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, 2006)
have ranked Singapore 170th among 190 countries in terms of fresh water availability. When
the water contract with Malaysia expires in 2061, Singapore will face a water supply crisis. In
view of this, Singapore's government has designed policy instruments to increase water
recycling, desalination capacity, and land catchment area and reduce domestic water demand
to be able to satisfy its water needs. However, these policies would disturb the existing water
dynamics and would definitely have impacts on Singapore's energy, waste and environment.
Solving the water problem without consuming too much energy resources, creating too much
waste and jeopardizing the environment would be ideal for Singapore's sustainable
development.

Singapore became an independent state in 1965 and its main source was water imported from
Johor (Malaysia), supplemented by water from the local catchments, i.e. reservoirs. As the
agreement expires in 2061, the Singapore government recognizes that there is a need to
develop other water sources to ensure a stable and sustainable water supply for the countrys
growing economy and population (Ong, 2010). Today, Singapore has adopted a "Water for
all" policy, which refers to the strategy to ensure diversified and sustainable sources of water
supply, known as the Four National Taps (Khoo, 2009): imported water (from Johor), local
catchment (reservoirs), NEWater (recycled water) and desalinated water.

To maximize the collection of rainwater, about half of Singapore's total land area is currently
used as water catchment with the aim of increasing the water catchment area to two-thirds of
Singapore's land area by 2012. Public Utility Board (PUB) plans to increase the water
catchment area in Singapore from 67% to 90% by tapping the small rivers and streams as
sources of water. (PUB, 2011) The water supply is further increased through collection,
treatment and reuse of wastewater. With a 100% sewer connection, all wastewater is
collected and treated. NEWater is used for industrial and commercial purposes, even though
it is safe to drink. By 2008, NEWater was able to meet 15% of Singapore's water demand.
Five NEWater plants enable NEWater to meet 30% of Singapores total water demand
(Ministry of Environment and Water Resources, 2011). By 2060, PUB plans to triple the
current NEWater capacity so that NEWater can meet 50% of future water demand. (Global
Water Intelligence, 2010)

Desalination is becoming an important component for augmenting and diversifying available

national water sources. In late 2005, the first desalination plant with a capacity of 30 million
gallons a day (mgd) was opened. The cost of the desalinated water during its first year of
operation is S$0.78/m3 cubic meter. (Lee, 2005) A second desalination plant will be
constructed at Tuas, with a capacity of 70 mgd, to be completed in 2013 (PUB, 2011). This
will increase Singapore's overall water desalination capacity to 156 million cubic meters per
year and bring Singapore closer to its goal of supplying 30 per cent of its water needs from
desalination by 2061. PUB anticipates a tenfold increase in desalination capacity to over 1
million cubic meters per day to contribute to 30% of Singapores future water demand by
2060 (Global Water Intelligence, 2010).

PUB has also adopted a basket of mandatory and voluntary measures to promote water
conservation. The policies have been effective as Singapore managed to achieve its ambitious
target of water demand per capita at 155 liters/day in 2010. By 2020, PUB plans to reduce per
capita water consumption to 147 liters/day (MEWR, 2011). Despite water conservation effort,
PUB expects Singapore's water demand to double in the next 50 years, with about 70 per cent
of the demand coming from the non-domestic sector with the domestic consumption making
up the other 30 per cent. (GWI, 2010)

Energy consumption is a major component of the operating cost of water production. Hence
energy usage in water production has a significant impact on the overall cost of water
production in Singapore. Despite the abundance of seawater, one of the biggest challenges in
desalination is in reducing its high-energy consumption. Today, the most efficient
desalination technique is only able to reduce the energy footprint to about 4KWh/m3. PUB's
goal is to it further reduce it to 1.5KWh/m3 using electrochemical desalting technology and
finally to 0.75KWh using biometric membrane technology (PUB 2011). At less than
1KWh/m3, water recycling consumes much less energy as compared to desalination (Ryggard,
et al, 2009). PUB aims to lower the energy consumption from the latest 0.7 KWh/m3 to
0.4KWh/m3 in the long run (Upson, 2010). In terms of water treatment, energy required to
convert water in reservoir to potable tap water is about 0.31Kwh/m3, excluding the energy
consumption in the transmission of water (Han, M.Y et al). If Singapore is to adopt nuclear
energy, which requires substantial amount of water for cooling purposes, the relationship
between the water and energy systems becomes even more complex.
Water production in Singapore does not produce much solid waste in relation to overall waste
generation. As a result, the link between water and waste is weak. Singapore incinerates
about 41% of its waste generated; the majority of waste created is recycled while about 2%
ends up in landfill. Waste incineration produces energy - this account for more than 2% of
Singapore's energy supply (MEWR 2011).

The production of water consumes energy, which in turn leads to a substantial amount of
CO2 emission. In addition, air pollution occurs during waste incineration activities. A holistic
approach to measure the environment status in Singapore would be to use the Environmental
Performance Index or EPI (EPI 2011). The EPI ranks 163 countries on 25 performance
indicators tracked across ten policy categories covering both environmental public health and
ecosystem vitality. The indicator provides a gauge at a national government scale of how
close countries are to established environmental policy goals. The EPI for Singapore as of
2010 is 69.6 and is ranked at 28th in the world (EPI 2011).

2. Methodology
The use of system dynamics (SD) modeling has been used to study specific policies for
energy and water resource management quite extensively. Although CO2 emission is taken
into account in energy models, very few SD models in the water area actually take into
account of the energy consumption of water and the subsequent CO2 emission as a result of
water production. Even fewer SD models were used to study the indirect relationship between
water and waste. Therefore, it is valuable to conduct further research using system dynamics
approach focusing on the trade-offs between water and energy, water and waste, and water
and environment.

The relationships between water, energy, waste and environment (WEWE) systems are
complex and dynamic. These interactions are complex not only because they simultaneously
involve various system components but they occur dynamically over time. As a result, system
dynamics (SD) is considered to be an appropriate approach for understanding dynamic
consequences of the interactions and analyzing the implications of different policies. The
development of a WEWE SD model allows users to adjust different inputs and use the model
as a tool for evaluating policy effectiveness.

3. The WEWE Model of Singapore

Figure 1 shows the causal loop diagram of the main interactions of the WEWE systems.
Since the main variable considered in this model is water, both water demand and supply are
modeled in detail. Domestic water demand is increased by rising population or water demand
per capita. Total water supply is affected by the amount of treated water, recycled water and
desalinated water. The amount of treated water is further influenced by the amount of raw
water collected through local catchment as well as the amount of imported water from
Malaysia. The amount of rainfall collected is influenced not only by the amount of annual
rainfall in Singapore but also the percentage of catchment area available.

The minimum of the total water supply and total water demand represents the actual water
withdrawn from the distribution system, which in turn affects the amount of water being
recycled. The three variables form a reinforcing loop. The amount of energy consumed is
increased if the amount of desalinated water is increased, which in turn diminishes the total
energy stock. A similar logic applies to the other two sources of water supply. The cost of
water production is increased if the cost for any water source increases. The cost for each
source of water supply is the sum of energy cost and other non-energy cost. While the energy
stock is diminished by energy consumption of water production, it is increased by the amount
of waste incinerated. Both energy stock and waste stock also increases as population
increases. Finally, an increase in waste incineration results in an increase of air pollutants
whereas an increase in energy stock leads to more CO2 emission. Air pollution and CO2
emission in turn diminish the EPI.

Figure 1. The Causal Loop Diagram

A quantitative stock and flow model (Figure 2) is created using Vensim based on the causal
loop diagram. As the model is intended for policy evaluation, it is constructed with emphasis
on real scenarios and actual data to ensure the practical use of the model.

Figure 2. The Stock and Flow Model

 3.1 Description of Model
The following assumptions were made when the model was built:
a. NEWater and desalination plants are running at full capacity and are the primary
sources of clean water supply
b. Water is only withdrawn from reservoirs when these two supplies are not enough
c. Potable and non-potable water supplies in the distribution system are not separated
although it is known that NEWater is mainly used for non-domestic water usage
d. Particulate Matter of less than 10 micrometers (PM10) from sources other than
incineration remains constant
e. CO2 emission from sources other than energy production remains constant
f. The catchment area increases to 90% in 2031

The model can be viewed as 5 sub-models interacting with each other, namely, population,
water, energy, waste, and EPI.

Population sub-model. Population growth has an impact on water demand, energy demand
and waste generated. In addition, population size also affects CO2 emission per capita, which
is an important component of the EPI.

Water sub-model. Natural rainfall and imported water from Malaysia both flow into existing
reservoirs and rivers. Due to the hot climate in Singapore, a large percentage of water
collected is evaporated even before they enter reservoir. In cases where the reservoir storage
capacities are exceeded, water flows out to open sea. Both evaporation and discharge are
regarded as outflow from reservoir. It must be pointed out that the amount of water in
reservoir is a not representative of real life situation as the model only considers annual data
such that inflow and outflow only takes place once in a year. Nevertheless, the amount of
water level serves as an estimation of water supply adequacy. Water from reservoir then
flows into water distribution system together with desalinated water and recycled water. This
model is illustrated in Figure 3.

Figure 3. Water Sub-model

The amount of desalinated water depends on the desalination plant capacity. On the other
hand, the amount of recycled water depends on the amount of wastewater collected,
wastewater recovery rate and is limited by NEWater plant capacity. The primary water
supply is NEWater plus desalination. When these two sources are not enough to meet water
demand, treated water will be withdrawn from the reservoirs.

The total water demand is aggregated from domestic and non-domestic water demand.
Domestic water demand is the product of population and water consumption per capita,
whereas non-domestic water demand is based on projected industrial activities. Non-domestic
demand has its own growth rate which is different from domestic water demand. Total water
supply is affected not only by the amount of each national tap, but also by the amount of
unaccounted for water (UFW), which is the amount lost in distribution system. The cost of
water per unit is calculated as the weighted average of all the sources of water supply.

Figure 4 shows the energy, waste and environment sub-models. Energy consumed by water
production increases energy demand while waste incineration increases energy supply. Other
supply of energy capacity is the total amount of energy that can be produced by the available
power plants in Singapore. The difference between total energy supply and demand is the
energy capacity surplus. The total energy demanded affects the amount of energy production
related CO2 emission.

All the waste generated has to be dealt with, either through incineration, recycled or stored in
a landfill. The waste incineration process generates PM10, which is part of the EPI matrix.
EPI is affected by PM10 concentration and CO2 emission per capita. Changes in PM10
concentration is derived from the difference between initial and final PM10 emission from
incineration activities. Similar logic applies to CO2 emission per capita.

Figure 4. Energy, Waste and Environment Sub-models

Simulation Settings. The time step of the simulation run is set at 1 year. The 1st order of
integration (Euler Method) is used for simulation. The length of the simulation is set at 70.
This is used to examine Singapore's current policy set for 2061 and what will happen 20 years
after 2061.

4. Analysis
The main analyses are on the adequacy of water supply and its effect on energy consumption
and the environment for water demand to be met. Two scenarios were created.

a. Scenario 1 examines the situation with existing known capacity and parameters i.e. it
includes existing known capacity, where one desalination plant is in operation in 2011, and
the second one is added in 2013.

b. In Scenario 2, NEWater and desalination capacities are expanded as stated in PUB's

long-term water plans. Assuming a desalination plant of 30 millions of gallons per day (mgd)
is added every 10 years from 2011 onwards. Singapore will be able to increase its
desalination capacity to 10 times of what it has today. Similarly, assuming that Singapore
adds a new NEWater plant every 10 years with a capacity of about 60 mgd, total NEWater
capacity will increase to 690 million m3 in 2061, which is 3 times the present capacity.

The parameter settings for Scenarios 1 and 2 are shown in Figure 5 and the results are shown
in Figure 6.

Figure 5: Parameter changes for Scenario 2 as compared to Scenario 1 (initial)

Figure 6: Results for Scenario 1 (initial) and Scenario 2
The results can be summarized as follows:

a. Scenario 1. Based on the results, at time 37 or year 2048, water supply will not be
sufficient to meet water demand. This means, even before the contract with Malaysia expires
Singapore will not be able to meet its water demand under this scenario. The energy
consumption of water supply increases from 509 GWh in 2011 to 909 GWh in 2061. As the
total energy demand will increase to 64662 GWh, the energy consumption of water supply
will become 1.4% of total energy demand. If proportion of waste recycling and waste
incineration level remain at present values, the amount of landfill will reach about 4 million
tons in 2061, while EPI will drop by 1.22. Cost of water per unit will incur a hike to $0.39/m3
in 2013 due to the increased percentage of desalinated water, which is more expensive to
produce. Then the price will decline gradually to about $0.33/m3 up to 2060. The cost will
increase again in 2061 as the water contract expires and the percentage of water treatment
decreases.

b. Scenario 2. It is observed from the model that the water supply is able to meet water
demand at 2061. However, Singapore will still run out of water again at year 55 or 2066, and
that more NEWater and desalination plants have to be added beyond 2061. In addition, the
energy consumption of water production will increase to about 2228 GWh in year 2061,
which is about 3% of total energy demand, if the energy consumption of desalination and
NEWater per unit cannot be reduced further. This illustrates the importance of R&D effort to
reducing energy footprint of water production activities. Cost of water per unit will increase
to 0.43/m3 under this scenario assuming no change in electricity price. In reality, population
grows coupled with rising fuel price will lead to increase in cost of electricity - hence, a
larger increase in cost of water is expected. The change in EPI is -1.24 under this scenario,
which is not very different from Scenario 1.

Sensitivity Analysis. Further analysis on how variations of some important variables would
affect the WEWE systems was carried out as shown in Table 1.

Table 1.Sensitivity Analysis

Variable name Impact on Parameters Comment on result
setting
cost of electricity 1. Cost of water run 1: 0.06 The cost of water is quite
(dollars/KWh) per unit run 2: 0.1 sensitive to changes in cost of
run 3. 0.14 electricity
run 4: 0.18
run 5: 0.22
energy 1. Cost of water run 1:0.75 Both cost of water and energy
consumption of 2. Energy run 2: 1.5 consumption of water supply
NEWater per unit consumption of run 3: 2 are very sensitive to this
(KWh/m3) water supply run 4: 3 variable
run 5: 4
energy 1. Cost of water run 1:0.3 Ccost of water is not sensitive
consumption of 2. Energy run 2: 0.4 to this variable, but energy
water consumption of run 3: 0.5 consumption of water supply
desalination per water supply run 4: 0.7 is relatively sensitive to it.
 unit run 5: 1
(KWh/m3)
proportion of 1. waste in run 1:0.38 The amount of waste in
waste incinerated landfill run 2: 0.39 landfill is extremely sensitive
2. waste run 3: 0.40 to this variable, PM10
incineration run 4: 0.41 emission on the other hand is
related PM10 run 5: 0.419 not so sensitive to it. The
production change is EPI is slightly
3.changes in EPI sensitive to the proportion of
waste incinerated
non-domestic 1.water run 1:0.01 Both total water demand and
water demand withdrawn from run 2: 0.015 adequacy of water supply is
growth rate distribution run 3: 0.02 sensitive to this variable.
system run 4: 0.025
2. total water run 5: 0.03
demand
per capita water 1.water run 1:50 The total water demand is not
use withdrawn from run 2: 52 sensitive to per capita water
(cubic meters/ distribution run 3: 54 use.
year) system run 4: 46
2. total water run 5: 58
demand
percentage of 1.water in run 1:0.5 Increasing the percentage in
catchment area reservoir run 2: 0.6 catchment area only makes at
run 3: 0.7 most 2 years difference to the
run 4: 0.8 time which water runs out
run 5: 0.9

The following insights to Singapore's sustainable development policies based on the above
results are:
a. To contain the cost of water, it is important to keep the cost of electricity low.

b. To prevent water price hike and energy consumption of water production, the most
effective policy would be to reduce energy consumption of water desalination plants.

c. Policies to curb non-domestic water demand growth rate through water conservation
incentives is much more effective than effort to reduce domestic water demand in achieving
water self-sufficiency. Even if the domestic water demand per capita is reduced to 136 liters
per day, it will not make too much of a difference to water sufficiency of Singapore.

d. The damage of water production activities to the environment is generally smaller

than waste incineration and energy production activities.

e. It is important to increase the proportion of waste recycled to prevent too much waste
ending up in the landfill or incinerated.
The stakeholders involved in the above system include Ministry of Environment and Water
Resources, National Climate Change Secretariat, industrial and domestic consumers/
generators of water, energy and waste. Each of these stakeholders has their own goals and
interests and these are likely to be in conflict with each other. Hence it is important that
Singapore adopt a whole-of-government approach to tackle the scarce resources of water and
energy and their effects on climate change and health.

Conclusions
This paper is concerned with the interactions between WEWE systems and how they evolve
dynamically. In view of a possible water scarcity problem faced by Singapore, the water
system is regarded as the core of the WEWE. A system dynamics model was developed to
determine how changes in government policies would influence the behaviour of the WEWE
systems in Singapore. Results showed that Singapore has to increase its NEWater and water
desalination capacity by about 100mgd every ten years in order to meet its rising demand.
By satisfying water needs, the result also showed that energy consumption of water supply
would increase to about 3% of total energy supply in 2061, if energy efficiency of water
plants remains at present level. Therefore, it is crucial to leverage on new technologies to
reduce energy consumption in water production.

Sensitivity analysis shows that PUB's policies to increase land catchment area and reduce
domestic water consumption will not be as effective in solving the water problem. Instead,
water conservation targeted at non-domestic sector will be more effective. Furthermore, the
environment is more sensitive to energy consumption per capita than water consumption per
capita. To maintain the current environmental status, the more effective measures are waste
recycling and energy conservation efforts.

Very often, policies of different systems are decided independent because they are usually
managed by different entities. This paper uses the Singapores WEWE systems as an
exemplar of how WEWE factors interact with each other. A more holistic view using system
dynamics will help to uncover these interactions and their dynamic relationships. This in turn
could help to make more effective policies taking into considerations the goals and interests
of the different stakeholders.
 References
Environmental Performance Index 2010. http://epi.yale.edu/
Global Water Intelligence. 2010. "Singapore aims for 1 million m3/d of desal", Volume 11,
Issue 7. http://www.globalwaterintel.com/archive/11/7/general/singapore-aims-1-million-m3d-
desal.html
Han, M. Y., Mun, J. S. and Kim, H. J. (2008)"An Example of Climate Change Adaptation by
Rainwater Management at the Star City Rainwater Project" IWA Conference
Khoo, T. C. 2009. "Singapore Water: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow" Water Management
in 2020 and Beyond Water Resources Development and Management, 237-250, DOI:
10.1007/978-3-540-89346-2_12
Lee, P. O. 2005. "Water management issues in Singapore", paper presented at Water in
Mainland Southeast Asia, 29 November-2 December, Siem Reap Cambodia,
conference organized by the International Institute for Asian Studies (IIAS),
Netherlands, and the Centre for Khmer Studies (CKS), Cambodia.
Ministry of Environment and Water Resources. 2011. "Water for All"
http://app.mewr.gov.sg/web/Contents/Contents.aspx?ContId=960
Ministry of Environment and Water Resources (2011). Key Enviromental Statisitcs 2010.
http://app.mewr.gov.sg/web/Contents/Contents.aspx?Id=80
Ong I.B.L. 2010." Singapore Water Management Policies and Practices", International
Journal of Water Resources Development (26):1
Public Utilities Board. 2011. "PUB Annual Report" Singapore
http://www.pub.gov.sg/mpublications/Pages/AnnualReport.aspx
Public Utilities Board. 2011. "Long Term Water Plans" Singapore
http://www.pub.gov.sg/LongTermWaterPlans/index.html
Tortajada, C. 2006. "Water management in Singapore", Water Resources Development.
22(2), pp. 227240.
United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). 2006. 2nd
United Nations World. Water Development Report (New York, NY: UNESCO).
Upson, S. 2010. Singapore's water cycle wizardry. IEEE Spectrum.
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/environment/singapores-water-cycle-wizardry/
 Biography
Dr Chia is an Associate Professor in the National University of Singapore teaching large-
scale systems engineering, systems engineering and project management. His main research
focus is on large scale systems engineering and the system dynamics of large scale systems in
the study of cities and their systems. He is currently the President-Elect of INCOSE
Singapore Chapter, Chairman of Certified Systems Engineering Professional (CSEP)
Examination Board for Institution of Engineers, Singapore (IES) and a member of CSEP
Monitoring Committee and Systems Engineering Technical Committee, IES. He currently
holds PhD, Masters and Bachelor degrees in Electrical Engineering, a MBA in Management
of Technology, a degree in Psychology and Graduate Diplomas in Learning Science and
Change Management.

Ms Chen is a final year student from Industrial and System Engineering department at the
National University of Singapore.