CIVL2111 Transportation Engineering

Mid-term comments 2015-2016 Semester 1

This mid-term paper consists of three separate questions. The first question is to identify the explanatory
variables to be adopted in a regression model. The second question is a trip distribution problem that
determines the relative attractiveness of two zones. The third question involves mode choices that adopt
multinomial logit model to determine the revenue and the service level of a newly introduced transport mode.
To comment on the overall performance in this test, the test results reflect that most students have spent effort
revising while the mathematical foundation is shown to be weak. This semester has 13 students scoring
higher than 80, and the number of students falls below 50 marks is similar. The mean score of this test is 64.3,
with a standard deviation of 14.0 marks.

The answers can refer to the coming pages and here leaves some comments about the answers.

Q1a) Almost all students can identify X1 to be the inappropirate explanatory variable with correct reason.

Q1b) This performance of this problem is the worst in the mid-term. This problem requires student to
suggest suitable MULTIPLE linear regression model, while many students omit the critical key word
in this problem and provide excessive number of models. To avoid inclusion of excessive model, this
problem includes mark deduction for excessive models. On the other hand, since X4 is negatively
related to Y, the coefficient of X4 is negative, but very few students have shown that in their answers.

Q2) This question requires student to determine the value of relative attractiveness. For information, it is
useful to determine this value so the future forecast can adopt the same value for prediction. Most
students have identified the correct impedance function and calculated friction factor correctly. The
production-constrained tables are correctly constructed. Only a few students have wrongly interpreted
the ratio of trip production of Zones P and Q, or adopted attraction-constrained model to complete the
problem. For solving the equations, students that can neatly write the equations can solve the
equation well, while messed up equations often lead to wrong answers. It is a suggestion for students
to present equations clearly.

Q3a) This question requires students to determine the fare of bus and the profit of bus operator.
Meanwhile, most students have overlooked that the demand of 6,000 is the total trip production from
Y but not the number of trips in QY. This gives a fatal prediction in the fare as well as the total profit
of the bus company. Some students also omit the determination of profit of the company.

Q3b) This question re quires the determination of the travel time of minibus that both companies can retain
at least same level of revenue. Very few students can see the IIA property hidden in this problem, but
by solving two equations and comparing the minimum travel time required. This apporach is also
acceptable while the score deduction in this part is often due to the wrong answers in the last part,
which impacts the final result of this problem.

For all of you to notice, the mark allocation in this mid-term is the most lenient among the four mid-terms I
have marked. Your score may not be a good indicator to show your progress in this course. Careless
mistakes are fatal in this course since this impacts your results in subsequent sections. 70 out of 100 in this
mid-term is the minimum score that shows your study an acceptable progress. You should not expect the final
exam to have a similar lenient marking standard as this mid-term. Be well prepared for your final exam.
CIVL1011/2111 Transportation Engineering Student Name: _______________________
Question Sheet for Mid Term
21 November 2015 University No.: ______________________
You have one hour to answer all questions.
Write down your name and university number on the question sheet.

1. Based on the following correlation matrix,

(1) explain which of the explanatory variable(s) should not be included in any regression model; and
(2) give the possible multiple linear regression model form(s). [20%]

Y X1 X2 X3 X4
Y 1 0.28 0.55 0.48 -0.85
X1 1 0.22 0.37 0.14
X2 1 -0.47 0.12
X3 1 0.68
X4 1

2. A four zone city includes two pure residential zones, X and Y, and two multi-purpose zones, P and Q. The travel
time t among zones, in minutes, are given in Figure Q2. The relationship between the friction factor and interzonal
impedance is expressed as:
ln Fij 0.8 ln Wij

Figure Q2 Trip interchanges between districts X and Y and multi-purpose zones P and Q

where Fij and Wij are the friction factor and interzonal impedance between zone i and zone j, respectively. The
interzonal impedance Wij is equivalent to the travel time tij of bus from zone i to zone j. When using a production-
constrained gravity model to determine the trip interchange, the total trip attractions of zones P and Q are the same.
It is known that the trips produced by zones X and Y are in the ratio of 2:3, and the socio-economic factors are all
equal to 1. Determine the ratio of the relative attractiveness of zone P and zone Q in the form of r:1 (where r needs
to be corrected to 3 decimal places). [35%]

3. Following question (2), it is further given that there are a total number of 6000 trips produced by zone Y. The
residents in zone Y goes to zone Q via two transport modes: bus and train, where both modes have the same travel
time from Y to Q. The modal split can be explained by a multinomial logit model, in which the following
representative utility function has been used:
Vx ax 0.4t x 0.3cx
where for any mode x, V is the overall utility, a is the mode specific constant, t is in-vehicle travel time (minutes)
and c is fare ($).
Mode a C
Train 0.3 8
Bus 0 y

a. Given that the train company has a revenue of $12,000 from this line, determine the fare of bus and the
revenue of the bus company operating this line. [25%]
b. A minibus company is going to operate a route from zone Y to zone Q to compete with the train and bus
operator. The mode specific constant of minibus is 0.2 and the price of minibus is $9. It is expected that the
introduction of minibus increases the demand from zone Y to zone Q by 15%. Determine the range of travel
time of minibus that both bus and train operators can have higher revenues compared with the case without
minibus. [20%]
END OF PAPER
Solutions for mid-term 15-16 Semester 1

1 X 1 should not be included in the regression model since R1 0.4

Only model: Y b0 b1 X 2 b2 X 4 , bx 0

Identify correct explanatory variables 2.5%; correct explanation 2.5%; each extra variable -2.5%
Correct selection of variable 5%; intercept 2.5%; sign convention 2.5%; -ve sign for X4 5%; all variables
are positive (extra 2.5%); each extra model -5%
(Lowest score: 0, highest: 20)

2 Production-constrained gravity model (Let attractiveness of Q to be 1, and let trip produced by X be d)

i=X Aij tij Fij Kij AFK ij Pi pij
150.8 r
j=P r 15 0.1146 1 0.1146r d
150.8 r 160.8
160.8
j=Q 1 16 0.1088 1 0.1088 d
150.8 r 160.8

i=Y Aij tij Fij Kij AFK ij Pi pij

180.8 r 3
j=P r 18 0.0990 1 0.099r 0.8 0.8
d
18 r 20 2
0.8
20 3
j=Q 1 20 0.0910 1 0.091 0.8 0.8
d
18 r 20 2
Providing that attraction to P = attraction to Q,
150.8 r 180.8 r 3 160.8 200.8 3
d d 0.8 d d
150.8 r 16 0.8 180.8 r 200.8 2 15 r 16 0.8 0.8
18 r 20 0.8
2

2 150.8 r 180.8 r 200.8 3 180.8 r 150.8 r 16 0.8 2 160.8 180.8 r 20 0.8 3 20 0.8 150.8 r 16 0.8

5 150.8180.8 r 2 160.8180.8 150.8 200.8 r 5 16 0.8
20 0.80
r 0.931/ 0.937 rej.
The ratio of relative attractiveness of zones P and Q is 0.931:1.

Per table
Correct friction factor 2.5%; Correct AFK in terms of ratio 2.5%; Correct trip production equation 5%
Other
Correct equating function 5%; Steps 2.5%; Solution 5%; Conclusion 2.5%

3a
200.8
Number of trips to Y: 6000 2980.4
180.8 0.931 20 0.8
Utility of train: 0.3 0.4 20 0.3 8 10.1 ; Utility of bus: 0 0.4 20 0.3 y 8 0.3 y
Determine the bus fare:
e 10.1 e 10.1
2980.4 8 12000 0.5033
e 10.1 e 8 0.3 y e 10.1 e 8 0.3 y
By solving the equations, y 7.044
revenue of bus company: 1 0.5033 7.044 2980.4 10427.7
Trips to Y 5%; Utilities 5%; Steps 5%; Bus fare 5%; revenue 5% (Wrong r in Q2 but correct steps -5%)
3b

Number of trips from Q to Y: 2980.4 1.15 3247.5

Utility of train = 10.1 , utility of bus = 10.1132

To maintain at least the same revenue, the train and bus should keep the same patronage, and due to IIA, the market share
ratio of bus and minibus remains the same. Therefore the total market share of bus and train should be
86.96% 1/1.15 .

Utility of minibus: 0.2 0.4 t 0.3 9 2.5 0.4t

The travel time that bus and train has a higher revenue:
e 2.50.4t
1 0.8696 0.1304
e 10.1 e 10.1132 e 2.50.4t
0.8696e2.50.4t 0.1304 e10.1 e10.1132
2.5 0.4t 11.3109
t 22.03
Therefore both opertors can have a higher revenue if the travel time of minibus is more than 22.03 minutes between zone
Q and zone Y.

(new demand + utility of minibus) 5%; identification of the relationship between new market share and current market
share 5%; steps 5%; conclusion and answer 5%