Spatial Load Forecasting Method for The New Urban Area Based on Information Classification Approach

Jingmin Wang, Xiaodong Liu, Ruiqing Cui

Spatial Load Forecasting Method for The New Urban Area Based on
Information Classification Approach
1
Jingmin Wang, 2Xiaodong Liu, 3Ruiqing Cui
1
School of Business Administration, North China Electric Power University,
Baoding, China , 407427536@qq.com
*2
School of Business Administration, North China Electric Power University
,Baoding, China, liuxiaodongf@126.com
3
School of Business Administration, North China Electric Power University,
Baoding, China, cuiruiqing2006@163.com

Abstract
In this paper a novel method of spatial load forecasting is presented for new urban area with the help
of information classification approach. In accordance with the information required by the load forecast
whether we can see, the new area is divided into the white system, the gray system and the black
system. Cellular automata (CA) is used to determine the land-use types of each small-area in the black
system; On the basis of the collected samples, the fuzzy clustering method is used to develop the load
density levels, then use the secondary clustering method to predict the density of small-area load, On
the basis of the collected samples, the fuzzy clustering method is used to develop the load density
levels, then use the secondary clustering method to predict the load density of small-areas; The
formulas and known information are used to calculate the load of small-areas in the white system.
Finally, an actual example illustrates the accuracy and reliability of the method, making further
improving the accuracy of prediction results possible.

Keywords: Information Classification, Spatial Load Forecasting, Load density, Fuzzy Clustering
Analysis, CA

1. Introduction
In recent years, with the rapid development of the economy and the support of relevant national
policies, China's central and western regions have rapid developed, new urban areas are emerging. Due
to the particularity of no historical data, in the new urban area power construction, less load forecasting
method can be applied to and the prediction accuracy is difficult to guarantee. As a basis of power
construction, power load forecasting is the basis of power grid investment, substation location selected
and volume set, and the power point foundation. Its accuracy determines the operability and
adaptability of grid planning alternatives [1-2].Because of its advantages to forecast the total load, load
distribution and load growth position without historical data, spatial load forecasting has gradually
being the attention of domestic and foreign scholars and planners in recent years.
The spatial load forecasting is the basis of the distribution network planning .It was first proposed
by the US HL .Willis in the 1980s [3].After decades of continuous development and improvement, it
has formed a variety of forecasting methods, and its prediction accuracy is continuously
improving .The domestic mainly take the load density methods to forecast the load of the new area.
The research of improving the prediction accuracy is focused on the load density calculation .It uses a
variety of complex algorithms to optimize the results [4-8], but ignores the importance of the land-use
types to improve the prediction accuracy; the land-use types of the new urban area are also not clearly
in foreign countries. It mainly studies the land simulation methods to improve the prediction accuracy.
Because of the one-sidedness of improving load forecasting accuracy at home and abroad, this paper
brings in the idea of information classification, which is from information theory and cybernetics. The
new urban area is divided into the white, gray and black system to study respectively .The load density
methods and land simulation methods are applied to the load forecasting of the new urban area, and
make further improving the accuracy of prediction results possible.

International Journal of Digital Content Technology and its Applications(JDCTA) 527

Volume7,Number4,February 2013
doi:10.4156/jdcta.vol7.issue4.64
 Spatial Load Forecasting Method for The New Urban Area Based on Information Classification Approach
Jingmin Wang, Xiaodong Liu, Ruiqing Cui

2. The division of the new urban area

The spatial distribution of the load forecast should be based on small-area function, substation,
feeder supply area, administrative. The planning area is divided into regular or irregular cell [9].
Because of the difficulties of collecting data in the regular methods, this paper uses the irregular
methods, so that the division of the small-area contains a single type of load as much as possible .On
the basis of urban development planning of the new urban area, it uses the methods of the planned land
classification .When the load classified ,it considers the classification of the history of electricity data
and the planning land divided by the planning departments, which is one-to-one correspondence. When
the load classified ,it asks the moderate level of detail .If the classification is too coarse ,the
classification of covering a wide range is subject to accidental factors that reduce the accuracy of
forecasting .If the classification is too detail ,it makes the duplication of work of the load index value of
the similar features ,statistics ,etc, and increases the difficulties of collecting original data and the
workload of the load forecasting .Therefore ,the new urban area which is based on the load
characteristics is divided into following nine categories: residential, administrative office, commercial
finance, health care, education and scientific research, industry, roads and squares, green spaces and
unknown area.

3. Spatial load forecasting method based on information classification approach

In the information theory and cybernetics ,people used the depth of color to describe the clarity of
information .The black indicates the unknown .The white indicates completely the clear .The
gray indicates a part of the information is clear and some is not .Accordingly ,the system that the
information is completely clear is so called the white system .The system that the information is not
completely clear is so called the black system .The system that the part information is clear is so called
the gray system .On the basis of small-area division ,whether Geographic Information System (GIS)
and the factors that affect the small-areas load density indicators are clear or not ,the small-areas
begins the secondary classification .The small-areas that the required forecasting data is clear are so
called white system .The small-areas that the required forecasting data is partly clear are so called gray
system .The small-areas that the required forecasting data is not completely clear are so called black
system.

3.1 White System

The small-areas divided into the system have the clear land-use types, clear indicators in load
density, has no uncertain information or the uncertain information can be easily approved by a simple
method in the forecasting process. According to the formulas, we can calculate the total small-areas
load in the system directly. The specific formulas are as follows:
n
L i
i 1
D i S i
(1)

n
L w
i 1
L i (2)

In the formulas: Di is the load density of the small-area i, Si is the area of the small-area i, Li is the
load of the class i, is coincidence factor, Lw is the total load of the white system.

3.2 Gray System

The small-areas divided into the system are able to collect the partial load density indicators or the
information of related factors. But part of the required information is still difficult to determine, which
require some methods and models to repair or fill, which is the main focus and hotspots of the domestic
research currently [10].

528
 Spatial Load Forecasting Method for The New Urban Area Based on Information Classification Approach
Jingmin Wang, Xiaodong Liu, Ruiqing Cui

Many factors affect small-areas load density, for instance, the residential quarters are affected
significantly by the ratio of electrical energy to energy consumption, income per capita, average
temperatures, and so on; the commercial financial are affected significantly by the small-areas
positioning, work time, and so on; While the roads, squares and green space are affected significantly
by the lighting power. With reference domestic literature [11-12], the relevant load factors of each
small-area are shown in the following table:

Table 1. The relevant factors of the small-areas load

Land-use Type Relevant Factor

Income per capita
Residential areas population density
electricity consumption per capita
Population density
Administrative and office areas the distance from the neighborhood
the highest temperature
Cell positioning
the sales
Business and financial areas
business hours
the highest temperature
Income per capita
Health areas the distance from the neighborhood
population density
electricity consumption per capita
Education and scientific research areas the school time per year
the number of students in the school
The output value of the unit consumption
population density
Industrial areas the ratio of electrical energy to energy consumption
business hour
the average temperature
Road and square areas Lighting power

Green space areas Lighting power

As an exploratory analysis, Cluster analysis is the important means and methods of data
classification processing. In the classification process, it is not necessary given a classification standard
in advance, and can classify a number of sample data automatically in accordance with their degree of
intimacy in the nature, and in the case of the absence of priori knowledge [13]. In this paper, we
adopted the fuzzy clustering method to analyze the sample data to form the load density levels, and had
a discriminant analysis to sample data of the predict small-area according to the level of load density,
thus to determine the respective level and the load density indicators of each small-area, the concrete
steps are as follows:
1) Use the fuzzy clustering to analyze the sample data, and class the N samples in sample matrix
into K classes;
2) Calculate the sample fuzzy numbers xkjM of the k- class load density and related factors, the
formula is:
n
x M
1 / nk
k
x k (3)
kj ij
i1

3) Form the value of load density level center and impact properties to a new sample data sets
R=(xij)km;
4) Set X={x1,x2,x3xm} as the sample data of the small-area to be measured, use SPSS software to
have a clustering analysis with the small-area data and the resulting new sample data, each two samples
as a class, we can determine the measured small-areas load density level, and get the load density
indicators LG;

529
 Spatial Load Forecasting Method for The New Urban Area Based on Information Classification Approach
Jingmin Wang, Xiaodong Liu, Ruiqing Cui

5) With the known of the measured small-areas area, get the load density indicators, we can
completely see the loadings information, and transform the small-area to white system, thus have a
calculation according to the formulas.
Where: xkjM is the center value of the k- class load density and related factors. K=1,2,3K,
j=1,2,3m, m is the number of attributes; i=1,2,3nk, nk is the number of the k-class sample.

3.3 Black system

The information of the small-areas divided into the system need for load forecasting is not clear or
is difficult to obtain, the land-use types of the small-area have not been determined, and thus can be
used a certain method or model to determine land-use types first, and then placed under the gray
system to predict. In this paper, cellular automata (CA) is used to determine the land-use types of the
small-area.
CA is a time and space discrete dynamical systems, is the general term of a class of model. It is a
methodological framework composed of a series of model construction rules, those who meet these
rules models belong to the CA model. Standard CA is a four-tuple, composed by Cellular, state, the
neighbors and rules, each of the small-area is separated from one another, and at some point cellular
can have only one state, which is taken from a finite set [14-15]. The next moment state of a cellular is
a function of the last moment state of the neighborhood. With the set language CA model can be
described as follows:

S f (St, N ) (4)
t1

Where: S is a finite set, representative of the state of cellular; N represents cellular neighborhood; t
represents time; represents the partial conversion rules. The so-called partial conversion rule is a
cellular from one state into another state to follow specific rules.

Figure 1. Composing of CA

Re-divide the small-areas in the black system. When using irregular division method, neighbors is a
collection of all adjacent residential Cellular; when using size rule meshing method, the neighbors are
defined as follows:

N Moore {vi ( vix , viy )} (5)

s.t.| vix vox | 1,| viy voy | 1,(vix , viy ) Z 2

Where: vi is neighbor Cellular; vix , viy are row and column coordinates value of the neighbor
Cellular; vox , voy are row and column coordinates value of the Center Cellular; Z is a collection of
cellular.
Predict the power load of small-area in the black system, the following formulas can be used:
k n
i
i1
Si /
j 1
S j
(6)

530
 Spatial Load Forecasting Method for The New Urban Area Based on Information Classification Approach
Jingmin Wang, Xiaodong Liu, Ruiqing Cui

n
LB i Di S i (7)
i 1

Where: i is i class district accounted for the ratio of the total number of the neighbors; Si is the area
of small-area i; Di is the load density of small-area i; is the coincidence factor; and LB is the load of
the black system.

4. Empirical Study
In this paper, a new urban area of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is used as an example,
use the above methods for power load forecasting. According to the urban development planning, the
new total area of 31.17 Km2, irregular division method is used. The region is divided into two regions,
in 17 districts, 348 small-areas, the specific land-use types are summarized as follows:

Table 2. The specific land-use types

Land-use type AreaKm2 Proportion%

Residential area 6.51 20.8855

Administrative and office area 2.15 6.8977

Business and financial area 1.54 4.9406

Health area 0.28 0. 8983

Education and scientific research area 1.60 5.1331

Industrial area 2.68 8.598

Road and square area 5.55 17.8056

Green space area 5.07 16.2656

unknown area 5.79 18.5756

Total area 31.17 100

The white system load can be calculated directly on the basis of the survey data, black system can
be classified as gray system after treatment, so this article selects a residential area in the gray system
as an example to validate the models and algorithms. Due to the construction sites and the condition of
the natural environment, residential area is mainly in the second categories, building an eco-community.
Load factors include: income per capita, population density, electricity consumption per capita. Using
fuzzy clustering method to deal with the existing data [9], get the load density levels as shown in Table
3 and Table 4.

Table 3. Residential area load density data

load density
income per capita population density electricity consumption MW/
yuan/person/year person/km2 per capita (kwh/year)
km2
4797.4 15974 1104 26.98

5103.8 20012 1084 26.13

1145.1 26147 816 22.01

1218.4 16554 1011 2.49

531
 Spatial Load Forecasting Method for The New Urban Area Based on Information Classification Approach
Jingmin Wang, Xiaodong Liu, Ruiqing Cui

1208.9 31845 538 11.42

2611.1 15791 637 9.62

Table 4. load density levels

load density
income per capita population density electricity consumption MW/
yuan/person/year person/km2 per capita (kwh/year)
km2

4928.48 17757.22 1038.67 25.10

1029.22 25719.33 832.67 20.81

1248.01 30664.11 535.44 11.21

2496.04 16425.78 662.89 9.62

1196.43 16342.50 1025 2.59

Small-area sample data X = (4897, 16738, 1258), cluster analysis of sample data using SPSS
software. Results: X and Y=4292.48, 17757.22, 1038.67 classified as a class, small-areas load
density is 25.10MW / km2, the gray system is transformed into a white system.

5. Conclusion

This article introduces the idea of the information classification in information theory and
cybernetics to the new urban area power load forecasting, the new area is divided into the white system,
the gray system and the black system. Fuzzy clustering and cellular automata methods are used to
determine the small-area's load density and land-use type. The model has opened a new research ideas
for the load forecasting of the new urban area, making further improving the accuracy of prediction
results possible.

6. References

[1] LI Xiao-hui, SHEN Gang, YIN Jun, ZHANG Jin-lu, Jia Wei, The Application of Load Forecasting
Methods in Power Distribution Network Programming for Tianjin Binhai District, Power System
Technology, Vol. 32, Supplement 1, pp.120-123, 2008.
[2] Zhu Feng-juan, WANG Zhu-ding, SHOU Ting, ZHU Tie-ming, Fan Hua, ZHAO Jun-guang,
Classification and Subarea Method for Spatial Load Forecasting Based on Planning Area
Temporal Order, East China Electric Power, Vol. 39, NO. 3, pp.423-427, 2011.
[3] Willis H L, Northcote-green JED, Spatial electric load forecasting :A tutorial review, In
Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 71, NO. 2, pp.232-253, 1983.
[4] ZHOU Quan, SUN Wei, REN Haijun, ZHANG Yun, SUN Caixin, XIE Guoyong, DENG Jingyun,
Spatial Load Forecasting of Distribution Network Based on Least Squares Support Vector
Machine and Load Density Index System, Power System Technology, Vol. 35, NO. 1, pp.66-71,
2011.
[5] FU Yang, ZHU Lan, CAO Jialin, A New Method to Obtain Load Density According to the Theory
of Fuzzy Approach Degree, Automation of Electric Power Systems, Vol. 31, NO. 19, pp.46-49,
2007.
[6] XIAO Bai, LI Ping, Load Regularity Analysis on Spatial Load Forecasting of Urban Power
System, Power System Technology, Vol. 33, NO. 20, pp.113-119, 2009.

532
 Spatial Load Forecasting Method for The New Urban Area Based on Information Classification Approach
Jingmin Wang, Xiaodong Liu, Ruiqing Cui

[7] ZHOU Quan, SUN Wei, ZHANG Yun, REN Hai-jun, SUN Cai-xin, DENG Jing-yun, A new
method to obtain load density based on improved ANFIS, Power System Protection and Control,
Vol. 39, NO. 1, pp.29-34, 2011.
[8] JIANG Xin-qin, LIXI-lan, City future saturated load forecasting based model of saturated load
density, Journal of Fu zhou University(Natural Science), Vol. 36, NO. 4, pp.532-536, 2008.
[9] WU Bing, ZHANG Xiao-hui, Application of fuzzy number and multi-attribute weighted grey
target theory in small area load forecasting, Power System Protection and Control, Vol. 39, NO.
11, pp.124-128, 2011.
[10] Shuyan Wu, Hui Wang, Research on the Urban Water Consumption Prediction Based on Gray
Support Vector Machine, Journal of Convergence Information Technology(JCIT), Vol. 7, NO.
11, pp.351-358, 2012.
[11] GUO Pengwei, HUANG Qiaolin, XIAO Bai, Spatial load forecasting based on cluster analysis,
Heilongjiang Electric Power, Vol. 33, NO. 6, pp.434-440, 2011.
[12] HE Yun-hong, LI Zheng-yuan, WANG zhan-ying, Small Area Load Forecasting of Distribution
Network Based on Clustering Analysis, Jilin Electric Power, Vol. 36, NO. 3, pp.22-25, 2008.
[13] BO Yao-jun, ZHANG Xiao, SHANG Ai-jun, ZHANG Xiong, WEN Zhong-ming, Self-repair
Succession of Plant Community by Quantum-inspired Fuzzy Clustering Analysis, Journal of
Convergence Information Technology(JCIT), Vol. 6, NO. 8, pp.161-167, 2011.
[14] Yi Gui-ling, ZHANG Yan, Land usage-based spatial load forecasting in distribution system,
Electric Power Automation Equipment, Vol. 24, NO. 2, pp.20-23, 2004.
[15] ZHOU Quan, LI Jian, SUN Cai-xin, ZHOU Yong-yong, FU Jin, DAI Yao, Spatial Load
Forecasting for Distribution Networks Based on Rough Sets and Cellular Automata, Proceedings
of the CSEE, Vol. 28, NO. 25, pp.68-73, 2008.

533