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LIBERALS WILTING IN SUMMER HEAT


LIBERALS AT LOWEST POINT SINCE IGNATIEFF ASSUMED LEADERSHIP

[Ottawa – July 8, 2010] – Given cessation of


Parliament, the polling numbers are surprisingly
HIGHLIGHTS
active. • National federal vote intention
(June 30-July 6):
As Parliament closed, the Liberal Party were close ¤ 34.4% CPC
to the margin of error behind the Conservatives. ¤ 23.9% LPC
This week, they have found themselves nearly 11
¤ 17.9% NDP
¤ 11.2% Green
points down and exploring a basement level
¤ 10.0% BQ
support for their party. ¤ 2.5% other

The Conservative are the only clear beneficiaries • National federal vote intention
of this Liberal swoon and now would have a (2-week roll-up):
legitimate minority government in an election ¤ 32.1% CPC
were held today. ¤ 25.8% LPC
¤ 17.5% NDP
The Liberals should be particularly alarmed about
¤ 12.2% Green
¤ 9.7% BQ
newfound Conservative strength in Ontario,
¤ 2.7% other
where they now have a sizeable lead. Even in
supposedly security-wary Toronto, the • Direction of country:
Conservatives enjoy an unprecedented lead. ¤ 51.9% right direction
The bad news for the Liberals continues with ¤ 37.6% wrong direction
signs of Conservative life in Quebec. The key ¤ 10.5% DK/NR
demographic propelling the Conservatives
appears to be seniors, where nearly half now • Direction of government:
support them. ¤ 40.5% right direction
¤ 48.0% wrong direction
So why this abrupt shift in Conservative ¤ 11.5% DK/NR
fortunes? In the absence of Parliament, we could
speculate that it is merely a random survey error. Please note that the methodology is provided at the
But the pattern is far too pronounced and we can end of this document.
dismiss this hypothesis.

Perhaps the absence of the critical lens that Parliament provides to the public explains buoyed
Conservative fortunes. Another factor is the continuing recovery of the economy and the
juxtaposition of Canadian strength compared to the economic and fiscal woes of recent visitors
from the G8.

A final interesting hypothesis is that Stephen Harper may now be assuming a symbolic as well as
political role. It is interesting to note that in the absence of the representative head of state

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(Michaëlle Jean), it was Harper who greeted the Queen, rubbed shoulders with Obama and
European Leaders, and basked in the positive glow surrounding Canada Day.

So just as the Olympic hockey victory lifted Harper’s fortunes, the cumulative effect of these
events seems to have exerted a similarly positive effect. If indeed Harper is now becoming a
proxy for national pride, this may make the challenge for Ignatieff even more formidable (as
confidence in national direction continues to be strong).

One puzzling note to dampen an otherwise positive poll for the Conservatives is that there may
be some conditionality to their newfound strength as confidence in the direction of the federal
government continues to be tepid at best.

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Top Line Results:

Federal vote intention: June 30-July 6


Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

50

40
34.4

30
23.9

20 17.9

11.2
10.0
10

2.5

0
CPC LPC NDP GP BQ Other
Other

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Decided Voters; June 30 – July 6 (n=1,010)

Federal Vote Intention: June 22-29


Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

50

40

30.6
30
26.2

20 18.3

12.6
9.5
10

2.8

0
CPC LPC NDP GP BQ Other
Other

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Decided Voters; June 22-29 (n=2,018)

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Federal vote intention: 2-week roll-up
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

50

40

32.1
30
25.8

20 17.5

12.2
9.7
10

2.7

0
CPC LPC NDP GP BQ Other
Other

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Decided Voters; June 22 – July 6 (n=3,028)

Weekly tracking of federal vote intention


Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
50

40

30

20

10

Other
Line
6
0
2008Dec-08
Oct-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10
Election
Results
Note: The data on federal vote intention are based on decided voters only.
Our survey also finds that 13.9% of Canadians are undecided/ineligible to vote.

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Decided voters; most recent data point June 30 – July 6, 2010 (n=1,010)

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Second choice
Q. Which party would be your second choice?

FIRST CHOICE
Second
SECOND CHOICE Choice CPC LPC NDP GP BQ Other
(overall)

9.9 -- 20.8 12.1 10.3 8.7 15.2

16.6 23.0 -- 33.2 22.8 13.9 12.7

17.9 11.7 34.6 -- 28.5 29.3 16.2

12.8 11.3 15.8 23.1 -- 15.2 13.8

2.8 1.7 2.3 6.2 3.3 -- 2.7

Other 2.7 3.7 1.3 2.6 3.5 1.8 --

No second choice 37.4 48.4 25.1 22.7 31.6 31.2 39.4

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Eligible voters; June 22 – July 6 (n=3,418)

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Direction of country
Q. All things considered, would you say the country is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?

Wrong direction Right direction


60

50

40

30

20
May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Canadians; most recent data point June 30 – July 6 (n=half sample)

Direction of government
Q. All things considered, would you say the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong
direction?

Wrong direction Right direction


60

50

40

30

20
May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Canadians; most recent data point June 30 – July 6 (n=half sample)

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Methodology:

EKOS’ weekly tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology,
which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone,
rather than telling them to an operator.

In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell
phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with both a
landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households. This
dual frame yields a near perfect unweighted distribution on age group and gender, something
almost never seen with traditional landline RDD sample or interviewer-administered surveys.

The field dates for this survey are June 22 – July 6, 2010.1 In total, a random sample of 3,508
Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 3,028 decided
voters). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-1.7 percentage points, 19
times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error
margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically
weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada
according to Census data.

1
Please note that these dates are not inclusive of weekends or holidays, as we do not survey on Saturday or Sunday, nor do we
survey on Canada Day.

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