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RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17 13 FEB 2017

Suzlon Energy
BUY

INDUSTRY CAPITAL GOODS Momentum building up


CMP (as on 13 Feb 2017) Rs 18 Suzlon Energys (SUELs) 3QFY17 result was a beat on Highlights of the quarter
all counts with volumes of 462MW (+80% YoY) and With the execution of 1,019 MW in 9mFY17, SUEL
Target Price Rs 24
EBITDA margins of 22.5% (+490bps YoY) - leading to a is well placed to achieve volumes of 1.5GW in
Nifty 8,805 FY17E. In addition, it would also book revenues
higher-than-expected APAT of Rs 3.0bn.
Sensex 28,352 Improvement in EBITDA margins was led by from solar projects in 4QFY17E.
KEY STOCK DATA operating leverage benefit and a favourable revenue Considering 1GW of bid-based projects, the
Bloomberg /Reuters SUEL IN mix (lower EPC). Higher commissioning margins are company expects the wind industry to grow by 10-
15% in FY18E. The mgmt expects order inflows (for
No. of Shares (mn) 5,024 expected to normalise in 4QFY17. However, the
FY18E revenue booking) to pick up from 4QFY17.
MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 91 / 1,353 company expects FY17E margins to be higher at The current order book stands at 1,231MW.
6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 358 ~17% (15-16% guided earlier). The mgmt reiterated The new model (S111-120) has registered a PLF of
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) its volume guidance of ~1.5 GW for FY17E. ~38-39% in the last 10 months. SUEL has already
52 Week high / low Rs 19 / 12 Bid-based projects are expected to substantially bagged a ~100MW order for this model and
3M 6M 12M widen the horizon of WTG to non-windy states, expects further improvement going ahead.
The 128 meter turbine is expected to be launched
Absolute (%) 27.1 7.8 19.5 thereby providing volume visibility going ahead. The
in FY19E (reduction in LCOE by 5%), which would
Relative (%) 23.1 6.8 1.5 mgmt expects international order inflows to pick up also cater to the international markets.
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) FY18E onwards. Additionally, SUEL is actively Increased installations also augur well for the OMS
Promoters 21.00 pursuing value unlocking in subsidiaries (SE Forge business, which has been flat over the last 2-3
FIs & Local MFs 10.17 and Services business) for a sizeable reduction in years. We expect growth of ~6% over FY17-19E.
FPIs 11.92 debt. Consequently, we reiterate BUY on Suzlon with Near-term outlook: With improving volumes and
Public & Others 56.91 a TP of Rs 24/share (10x Dec-18E EV/EBITDA). profitability, we have a positive bias on the stock.
Source : BSE Financial Summary - Consolidated
(Rs mn) 3QFY17 3QFY16 YoY (%) 2QFY17 QoQ (%) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Pawan Parakh, CFA Net Sales 33,114 18,846 76 27,521 20 199,544 95,626 120,365 134,760 143,003
pawan.parakh@hdfcsec.com EBITDA 7,455 3,321 124 5,856 27 8,011 13,786 20,177 21,874 23,154
+91-22-6171-7314 APAT 3,035 (465) NM 2,044 49 (23,606) (1,715) 5,226 7,173 8,993
Diluted EPS (Rs) 0.5 (0.1) NM 0.3 49 (6.4) (0.3) 0.9 1.2 1.5
Ashutosh Mehta, ACA P/E (x) (2.8) (52.8) 20.7 15.1 12.0
ashutosh.mehta@hdfcsec.com EV / EBITDA (x) 27.1 14.2 10.2 9.1 8.3
+91-22-3078-8241 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters
SUZLON ENERGY : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17

Quarterly Financials Consolidated


(Rs mn) 3QFY17 3QFY16 YoY (%) 2QFY17 QoQ (%)
Net Sales 33,114 18,846 76 27,521 20
Material Expenses 18,411 10,229 14,656
Revenue grew 76% YoY led by Employee Expenses 2,555 2,019 2,588
strong execution of 462 MW in Other Operating Expenses 4,692 3,277 4,422
3QFY17 (vs. 256 MW, +80% EBITDA 7,455 3,321 124 5,856 27
YoY) Interest Cost 3,391 2,858 2,981
Depreciation 1,094 976 948
Other Income 254 135 173
Exceptional & Forex Gain/(Loss) (292) (754) 332
PBT 2,932 (1,132) NM 2,433 21
Tax 11 2 10
Reported PAT (before MI) 2,922 (1,134) NM 2,423 21
EO Items (292) (754) 332
Minority Interest (178) (85) (47)
APAT 3,035 (465) NM 2,044 49
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Margin Analysis Consolidated


2QFY17 2QFY16 YoY (bps) 1QFY17 QoQ (bps)
EBITDA margin improvement
Material Expenses as % of Net Sales 55.6 54.3 132 53.3 235
(22.5%, 489bps YoY) was led Employee Expenses as % of Net Sales 7.7 10.7 -300 9.4 -169
by contribution from larger Other operating expenses as % of Net Sales 14.2 17.4 -322 16.1 -190
turbines and a favourable EBITDA Margin (%) 22.5 17.6 489 21.3 124
revenue mix Net Profit Margin (%) 8.8 (6.0) 1484 8.8 2
Tax Rate (%) 0.4 (0.2) 57 0.4 -4
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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SUZLON ENERGY : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17

Consolidated Debt Breakdown FCCB Movement


Particulars Rs mn Comments USD mn FCCB Conversion / Repayment
Consolidated debt continues Term debt 27,960 400.0 357.9
to remain high at ~Rs 125bn. Wcap debt 31,670 350.0
However, the maturity profile Total Domestic Debt 59,630 277.8
300.0
is back-ended (FY19 onwards) 248.0
250.0 80.1
providing comfort for the 1.0
Forex debt USD mn 28.8
short-term liquidity profile of 200.0
Conversion price Rs
the company. 150.0
FCCB 248 15.46 and Exchange
Rate Rs 60.225 100.0
SBLC have extended
CE bond 626 50.0
facility till 2023.
Others 85 0.0

Conversion

Conversion
Repayment

3QFY17
FY15

FY16
Total Forex Debt* 959

9mFY17
9mFY17
FY16
Total Debt (Rs mn) 124,775
Debt (ex-FCCB) (Rs mn) 107,928
*Exchange Rate for conversion - 1 US$ = Rs 67.93 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Value unlocking in subsidiaries
Maturity Profile: Rupee Term Debt Maturity Profile: Forex Term Debt
(SE Forge and Services
business) will also aid SUEL in Rupee Term Debt USD mn Forex Term Debt
Rs mn
reducing its debts 9,000 1,000 657
8,000 7,640

7,000 To be extended till


5,720 FY23, subject to
6,000 100
5,000 procedural formalities
3,870
4,000 11 11
3,000 10 7 7
2,000 1,340
1,000 230
- 1
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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SUZLON ENERGY : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17

Quarterly Revenue Trend EBITDA And EBITDA Margin Trend


Revenue YoY (%) EBITDA EBITDA Margin - RHS
Rs mn Rs mn
35,000 300% 8,000 25%
30,000 250% 7,000
EBITDA margins expanded to 6,000
20%
25,000 200%
22.5% led by a favourable 5,000
20,000 150% 15%
product mix and cost control 4,000
measures. The same is likely to 15,000 100% 10%
3,000
regularise to ~15-16% on a 10,000 50% 2,000
5%
yearly basis. 5,000 0% 1,000
0 -50% 0 0%

1QFY16

2QFY16

3QFY16

4QFY16

1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

1QFY16

2QFY16

3QFY16

4QFY16

1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Considering 1GW of bid-based Key Estimates - Consolidated


projects, management expects Rs mn FY17E FY18E FY19E
wind industry to grow by 10- WTG Revenue 102,000 115,500 122,500
15% in FY18E MW sales 1,500 1,650 1,750
Rs mn/MW 68 70 70
OMS Revenue 18,365 19,260 20,503
Revenue from operations 120,365 134,760 143,003

EBITDA 20,177 21,874 23,154


EBITDA Margin (%) 16.8% 16.2% 16.2%

APAT 5,226 7,173 8,993


APAT margins (%) 4.3% 5.3% 6.3%

Total debt 101,364 96,364 88,349


Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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SUZLON ENERGY : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17

Peer Valuation
MCap CMP TP EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%)
Company Rating
(Rs bn) (Rs) (Rs) FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E
Larsen & Toubro ^ 1,397 1500 BUY 1,625 64.8 69.2 69.8 18.0 16.8 16.7 17.2 15.7 13.9 13.1 12.8 11.9
Cummins India * 242 874 BUY 1005 27.3 30.6 34.4 32.0 28.6 25.4 29.0 25.5 22.4 22.8 23.3 23.6
Voltas 112 340 BUY 351 12.4 14.5 16.6 27.3 23.4 20.5 20.0 16.5 13.8 16.2 16.8 17.1
Suzlon 108 18 BUY 24 0.9 1.2 1.5 20.7 15.1 12.0 10.2 9.1 8.3 NA NA NA
Engineers India * 102 152 BUY 178 5.9 6.2 8.0 25.9 24.4 19.0 21.1 18.7 13.1 14.4 14.5 18.0
Thermax 102 858 SELL 770 26.3 27.8 31.8 32.6 30.9 27.0 22.9 20.1 16.9 12.8 12.4 13.0
Carborundum Universal 49 260 BUY 340 8.9 11.5 13.6 29.1 22.5 19.1 13.9 12.0 10.3 13.4 15.4 15.9
Kalpataru Power * ^ 45 290 BUY 363 17.2 18.5 21.3 13.1 12.2 10.6 9.3 8.5 7.5 11.1 10.8 11.2
KEC International 44 169 BUY 179 10.2 11.1 12.7 16.6 15.3 13.3 8.7 8.1 7.3 16.1 15.2 15.3
Techno Electric ^ 43 374 NEU 388 18.2 21.1 23.9 16.9 14.6 12.9 12.9 11.8 10.3 19.5 19.7 19.3
Triveni Turbine 42 127 BUY 148 4.0 4.5 5.1 32.1 28.4 25.0 22.7 19.7 16.9 39.0 34.5 31.1
Crompton Greaves ^ 42 67 BUY 82 -1.2 1.6 1.6 NA 35.2 34.1 12.6 11.1 10.2 -1.7 2.2 2.3
Inox Wind 40 182 BUY 298 21.4 24.9 25.8 8.5 7.3 7.0 5.6 4.7 4.4 22.8 22.0 19.8
Sanghvi Movers * 10 238 BUY 325 21.8 25.7 27.6 10.9 9.3 8.6 4.5 4.2 3.6 12.0 12.7 12.2
*Note - represent SA numbers ^ P/E adjusted for value of Subs /JV's / non-core businesses
Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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SUZLON ENERGY : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17

Income Statement - Consolidated Balance Sheet Consolidated


(Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Net Revenues 199,544 95,626 120,365 134,760 143,003 SOURCES OF FUNDS
Growth (%) (2.2) (52.1) 25.9 12.0 6.1 Share Capital - Equity 7,415 10,041 11,980 11,980 11,980
Material Expenses 136,187 56,046 70,483 80,659 86,176 Share Capital - Preference 59 34 34 34 34
Employee Expenses 22,275 9,542 11,459 12,398 12,727 Share application money,
18,000 - - - -
SG&A Expenses 33,072 16,251 18,246 19,828 20,946 pending allotment
Total Expenses 191,533 81,839 100,188 112,886 119,849 Reserves (98,638) (80,869) (75,643) (68,470) (59,477)
EBITDA 8,011 13,786 20,177 21,874 23,154 TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS FUNDS (73,164) (70,793) (63,629) (56,456) (47,463)
EBITDA Margin (%) 4.0 14.4 16.8 16.2 16.2 Minority Interest 636 32 32 32 32
EBITDA Growth (%) 380.3 72.1 46.4 8.4 5.9 Long Term Debt 107,866 92,263 79,364 79,364 76,349
Depreciation 8,088 4,033 3,588 3,786 4,029 Short Term Debt 70,248 22,047 22,000 17,000 12,000
EBIT (76) 9,754 16,589 18,088 19,125 TOTAL DEBT 178,113 114,310 101,364 96,364 88,349
Interest 20,647 12,261 12,013 11,565 10,782 Net Deferred Taxes 6,489 126 126 126 126
Other income (including EO Long Term Provisions & Others 3,911 4,226 4,946 5,538 5,877
(67,438) 7,196 650 650 650
Items) TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 115,986 47,900 42,840 45,605 46,921
PBT (88,161) 4,689 5,226 7,173 8,993 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Tax (Incl Deferred) 3,173 (110) - - - Net Block 37,647 16,901 15,591 14,805 14,275
RPAT (before MI) (91,334) 4,798 5,226 7,173 8,993 CWIP 3,561 2,278 3,000 3,500 3,500
Minority Interest (243) 28 - - - Goodwill 20,787 76 76 76 76
EO (Loss) / Profit (67,971) 6,541 - - - Investments 152 448 448 448 448
APAT (23,606) (1,715) 5,226 7,173 8,993 LT Loans & Advances 8,318 8,920 9,893 11,076 11,754
APAT Growth (%) 13.4 92.7 404.7 37.3 25.4 Total Non-current Assets 70,466 28,622 29,007 29,905 30,053
Adjusted EPS (Rs) (6.4) (0.3) 0.9 1.2 1.5 Inventories 33,608 25,646 29,679 33,228 35,261
EPS Growth (%) 41.9 94.6 355.4 37.3 25.4 Debtors 27,543 26,971 32,977 36,920 39,179
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Other Current Assets 57,765 8,971 11,542 12,922 13,713
Cash & Equivalents 27,933 9,455 3,940 4,624 3,156
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS 146,849 71,043 78,137 87,695 91,309
Creditors 45,562 28,053 31,328 35,074 35,261
Other Current Liabilities &
55,767 23,712 32,977 36,920 39,179
Provns
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 101,329 51,765 64,304 71,995 74,440
Net Current Assets 45,520 19,278 13,833 15,700 16,868
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 115,986 47,900 42,840 45,605 46,921
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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SUZLON ENERGY : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17

Cash Flow - Consolidated Key Ratios Consolidated


(Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Reported PBT (88,161) 4,689 5,226 7,173 8,993 PROFITABILITY %
Non-operating & EO items 67,438 (7,196) (650) (650) (650) GPM 31.8 41.4 41.4 40.1 39.7
Interest Expenses 20,647 12,261 12,013 11,565 10,782 EBITDA margin 4.0 14.4 16.8 16.2 16.2
Depreciation 8,088 4,033 3,588 3,786 4,029 APAT margin (11.8) (1.8) 4.3 5.3 6.3
Working capital change (18,282) 7,477 (322) (1,775) (2,975) RoE NA NA NA NA NA
Tax Paid (3,173) 110 - - - Core RoCE (RoIC) (0.1) 15.8 42.9 45.3 45.1
Other operating items (65,077) (86,176) - - - RoCE (1.5) 13.2 38.0 42.4 42.7
OPERATING CASH FLOW (a) (78,521) (64,804) 19,855 20,099 20,179 EFFICIENCY
Capex 19,016 112,487 (3,000) (3,500) (3,500) Tax Rate (%) (3.6) (2.3) - - -
Free Cash Flow (59,505) 47,683 16,855 16,599 16,679 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 3.2 5.0 6.4 7.3 8.0
Investments (115) (296) - - - Inventory (days) 61.5 97.9 90.0 90.0 90.0
Non-operating Income 67,438 (7,196) 650 650 650 Debtors (days) 50.4 102.9 100.0 100.0 100.0
INVESTING CASH FLOW (b) 86,338 104,995 (2,350) (2,850) (2,850) Other Current Assets (days) 105.7 34.2 35.0 35.0 35.0
Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 7,580 (63,804) (12,946) (5,000) (8,015) Payables (days) 83.3 107.1 95.0 95.0 90.0
Interest (20,647) (12,261) (12,013) (11,565) (10,782) Other Current Liab & Provns
102.0 90.5 100.0 100.0 100.0
FCFE (72,572) (28,382) (8,104) 34 (2,118) (days)
Share Capital Issuance 1,620 18,000 1,940 - - Cash conversion cycle (days) 32.2 37.5 30.0 30.0 35.0
Minority Interest 53 (604) - - - Debt/EBITDA (x) 22.2 8.3 5.0 4.4 3.8
Dividend - - - - - Net D/E (x) (2.1) (1.5) (1.5) (1.6) (1.8)
FINANCING CASH FLOW (c) (11,394) (58,669) (23,019) (16,565) (18,797) Interest Coverage (x) (0.0) 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.8
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) (3,576) (18,478) (5,515) 684 (1,468) PER SHARE DATA (Rs)
Closing Cash & Equivalents 27,933 9,455 3,940 4,624 3,156 EPS (6.4) (0.3) 0.9 1.2 1.5
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research CEPS (4.2) 0.5 1.5 1.8 2.2
Dividend - - - - -
Book Value (19.7) (14.1) (10.6) (9.4) (7.9)
VALUATION
P/E (x) (2.8) (52.8) 20.7 15.1 12.0
P/BV (x) (0.9) (1.3) (1.7) (1.9) (2.3)
EV/EBITDA (x) 27.1 14.2 10.2 9.1 8.3
EV/Revenues (x) 1.1 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4
OCF/EV (%) (36.2) (33.2) 9.7 10.1 10.4
FCF/EV (%) (27.4) 24.4 8.2 8.3 8.6
FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) (108.4) (31.3) (7.5) 0.0 (2.0)
Dividend Yield (%) - - - - -
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
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SUZLON ENERGY : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Date CMP Reco Target
Suzlon TP
30 23-Feb-16 13 BUY 28
1-Jun-16 16 BUY 28
25
18-Jul-16 18 BUY 28
20 16-Nov-16 15 BUY 24
13-Feb-17 18 BUY 24
15

10 Rating Definitions
BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
Apr-16
Feb-16

Sep-16

Feb-17
Jun-16

Jul-16
Mar-16

Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16

Nov-16

Jan-17
May-16

NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

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SUZLON ENERGY : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17

Disclosure:
We, Pawan Parakh, CFA, & Ashutosh Mehta, ACA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our
views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in
this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its
Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further
Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock No

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