HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

22 February, 2017

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 STRATEGY FOR THE DAY

GBPINR FEB. FUT. : BUY ARND 83.60 SL 83.30 TGT 84.10

MAJOR CURRENCY CURRENCY VIEW POINT

Prev. FLAT START AFTER HOLIDAY

Close Chg. % Chg.
Close
USDINR 66.93 67.02 -0.095 -0.14% Indian currency market was shut yesterday on account of Election of
DXY INDX 101.27 101.37 -0.100 -0.10% Mumbai Municipality. On Monday, rupee gains 10 paise to close at
EURUSD 1.055 1.054 0.001 0.10% 66.93 on stronger domestic equity market followed by foreign fund
inflow. The home currency resilient to higher dollar amid strong
GBPUSD 1.250 1.247 0.003 0.22%
domestic macro.
USDJPY 113.40 113.68 -0.280 -0.25% One month forward NDF USDINR last quoted at 67.13 from
DG USDINR 66.970 66.975 -0.004 -0.01% Mondays 67.17 suggesting flat to negative opening.
Technically, the pair has been in consolidation mode with broad
range of 67.15 to 66.76. Overall chart pattern is still bearish with
GLOBAL INDICES lower top lower bottom formation.

Prev. Hawkish comments from Fed Charter Underpin Dollar

Close Chg. % Chg.
Close
SGX NIFTY 8919.5 8910.5 9 0.10% Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Fed President Patrick
Harker supports the raising rates at a mid-March policy meeting as
NIFTY 8907.9 8879.2 29 0.32%
long as inflation, output and other data until then continue to show
SENSEX 28761.6 28661.6 100 0.35% the U.S. economy is growing. The comment pulls dollar higher in
HANG-SENG 24141.0 23963.6 177 0.74% Mondays trade.
NIKKEI 19345.1 19381.4 -36 -0.19% Early today, the dollar edged down ahead of the minutes of the
SHANGHAI 3252.1 3253.3 -1 -0.04% Federal Reserve's latest meeting for clues as to the pace of interest
S&P INDEX 2365.4 2351.2 14 0.60% rate hikes, while the euro nursed losses and remained pressured by
European political woes.
DOW JONES 20743.0 20624.1 119 0.58%
The Fed minutes due to be released later tonight are a key focus for
NASDAQ 5865.9 5838.6 27 0.47% investors, as they could either reinforce or undermine recent
FTSE 7274.8 7299.9 -25 -0.34% hawkish comments from central bank policy makers.
CAC 4888.8 4865.0 24 0.49% The euro remained pressured by market concerns about the anti-
DAX 11967.5 11827.6 140 1.18% European Union rhetoric from French presidential candidate Marine
Le Pen ahead of the first round of French elections on April 23.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

USDINR has been consolidating below long term average of 200 SDMA. The lower top lower bottom is still in place indicating bearish
trend.
Momentum oscillators given positive cross over and about to exit oversold zone suggesting short term bounce.
The recent price action suggesting consolidation with the broad range of 67.15 to 66.76.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR FEB17 66.96 67.01 66.71 66.82 66.89 67.07 67.19 67.26 Consolidation
EURINR FEB17 71.15 71.20 70.81 70.95 71.05 71.29 71.44 71.54 Bearish
GBPINR FEB17 83.52 83.44 82.79 82.99 83.25 83.71 83.90 84.17 Short Covering
JPYINR FEB17 59.21 59.29 58.78 58.98 59.10 59.41 59.61 59.72 Bearish

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 67.15 66.88 68.39 66.77 68.86 66.07 66.97 67.39 67.75 67.50 67.27
EURINR 71.69 70.55 73.35 70.55 77.01 70.42 71.09 72.02 71.75 72.58 73.87
GBPINR 84.01 83.06 86.27 81.78 100.49 80.89 83.35 84.16 83.90 83.75 87.20
JPYINR 59.48 58.40 60.49 58.40 68.11 57.25 58.97 59.36 58.88 60.72 62.69

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Abs Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Volume
Chg. Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 67.08 67.10 66.90 66.93 -0.10 -- -- -- --
USDINR FEB. FUT. 67.10 67.12 66.94 66.96 -0.14 1120503 -68088 975331 -285563
SPOT EURINR 71.17 71.19 71.01 71.10 -0.28 -- -- -- --
EURINR FEB. FUT. 71.34 71.34 71.10 71.15 -0.33 49641 -4636 39396 -18657
SPOT GBPINR 83.30 83.38 83.04 83.09 -0.36 -- -- -- --
GBPINR FEB. FUT. 83.18 83.64 83.18 83.52 0.20 39923 -4969 44615 -34293
SPOT JPYINR 58.88 59.00 58.83 58.87 -0.30 -- -- -- --
JPYINR FEB. FUT. 59.49 59.49 59.18 59.21 -0.28 21261 899 16268 -13935

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

02/21/2017 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb P 55 55.5 55.2

02/21/2017 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Feb P 53.7 56.0 53.7
02/21/2017 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Feb P 54.3 55.6 54.4
02/21/2017 15:00 UK Public Finances (PSNCR) Jan -- -26.5b 36.3b
02/21/2017 20:15 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Feb P 55.3 54.3 55
02/21/2017 20:15 US Markit US Services PMI Feb P 55.8 53.9 55.6
02/21/2017 20:15 US Markit US Composite PMI Feb P -- 54.3 55.8

ECONOMIC EVENTS TODAY

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior

02/22/2017 15:00 UK GDP YoY 4Q P 2.20% 2.20%

02/22/2017 15:00 UK Private Consumption QoQ 4Q P 0.60% 0.70%
02/22/2017 15:00 UK Exports QoQ 4Q P 2.00% -2.60%
02/22/2017 15:00 UK Imports QoQ 4Q P 0.50% 1.40%
02/22/2017 15:30 EC CPI YoY Jan F 1.80% 1.80%
02/22/2017 15:30 EC CPI Core YoY Jan F 0.90% 0.90%
02/22/2017 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 17-Feb -- -3.70%
02/22/2017 20:30 US Existing Home Sales Jan 5.54m 5.49m

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]