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HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

17 January, 2017

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY Rupee to Consolidate in the Range of 68.40 to 67.70
Rupee yesterday erased all the early morning losses and closed
USDINR JAN FUT. marginally higher against the US dollar on expectation of foreign
fund flow after strong economic data. The local currency closed at
CONSOLIDATE IN RANGE OF 67.80-68.30 68.10 a dollar, up 0.09% from Friday's close of 68.16. The rupee
opened at 68.24 a dollar and touched a high and a low of 68.27 and
MAJOR CURRENCY 68.09, respectively. The 10-year bond yield closed at 6.441%,
compared to Friday's close of 6.417%.
Prev. The one month forward USDINR NDF quotes at 68.37 from
Close Chg. % Chg. yesterdays 68.39 at 5 pm indicating flat opening at domestic
Close
bourses.
USDINR 68.095 68.156 -0.061 -0.09%
Technically, spot USDINR is facing multiple top resistance around
DXY INDX 101.47 101.18 0.290 0.29% 68.39 and taking support at 68.70. In near term, the pair likely to
EURUSD 1.062 1.060 0.002 0.17% consolidate in the said range.
GBPUSD 1.207 1.205 0.002 0.18% Dollar Bounces Ahead of UK PM Mays Speech
USDJPY 114.00 114.20 -0.200 -0.18% The dollar gained versus all G-10 peers apart from the yen. The
DG USDINR 68.176 68.194 -0.018 -0.03% Japanese currency is in demand as a haven amid dropping equities.
The dollar index, basket of six currencies, quotes at 101.47 with the
GLOBAL INDICES gain of 0.29% after yesterdays low volume trade amid US market
close. Overnight volatility surged above 30% handle for the first
time since August ahead of PM Mays speech today even though an
Prev. exact time hasnt been announced yet.
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close Pound Tumbles To 3 Month Low
SGX NIFTY 8452.0 8433.0 19 0.23% The Pound flirted with a three-month low today, hit by fears that
NIFTY 8412.8 8400.4 12 0.15% Prime Minister Theresa May's speech later in the day will set Britain
SENSEX 27288.2 27238.1 50 0.18% on course to lose access to the lucrative European Union single
HANG-SENG 22805.5 22718.2 87 0.38% market. Prime Minister Theresa May to announce 12-point plan for
Brexit that will promise no partial membership of the U.K. in EU,
NIKKEI 18981.6 19095.2 -114 -0.60%
The Telegraph reports, without saying where it got the information.
SHANGHAI 3098.7 3103.4 -5 -0.15% The pound quoted at $1.207, having slumped to a three-month low
S&P INDEX 2274.6 2274.6 Close Close of $1.1983 on yesterday, which was its weakest point in more than
DOW JONES 19885.7 19885.7 Close Close three decades barring the several minutes in early today on Oct 7
NASDAQ 5574.1 5574.1 Close Close when it tanked to as low as $1.1491.
FTSE Yen also trades near a one-month high on uncertainty over Brexit.
7327.1 7337.8 -11 -0.15%
Concerns over U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's protectionist
CAC 4882.2 4922.5 -40 -0.82%
policies are also undermining risk sentiment, helping to push up the
DAX 11554.7 11629.2 -74 -0.64% yen back to its highest levels in more than five weeks.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

USDINR formed bearish candle after previous days doji candle. However, it sustains above middle band of the Bollinger.
Momentum oscillators RSI given negative cross over and negative divergence indicating weakness in the pair.
The pair may continue to consolidate in the range of 68.40 to 67.70. Fresh position can be created only on break out.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR JAN17 68.20 68.26 67.93 68.06 68.13 68.33 68.46 68.53 Consolidation
EURINR JAN17 72.30 72.42 71.61 71.92 72.11 72.61 72.92 73.11 Short Covering
GBPINR JAN17 82.33 82.25 81.46 81.70 82.02 82.57 82.81 83.12 Fresh Short
JPYINR JAN17 59.74 59.82 59.27 59.48 59.61 59.95 60.17 60.30 Long Buildup

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk


Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.39 67.95 68.39 67.33 68.86 66.07 68.17 68.07 67.90 67.35 67.15
EURINR 72.69 71.67 73.35 70.42 77.49 70.42 72.27 71.46 72.14 73.30 74.23
GBPINR 83.69 82.51 86.82 81.78 100.49 80.89 82.95 83.44 84.32 84.65 88.75
JPYINR 59.72 57.93 60.00 57.25 68.11 55.73 59.26 58.34 59.70 62.29 62.92

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Volume
Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 68.24 68.27 68.09 68.10 -0.06 -- -- -- --
USDINR JAN. FUT. 68.34 68.39 68.19 68.20 -0.08 1817462 -49317 649165 -63198
SPOT EURINR 72.41 72.49 72.08 72.15 -0.46 -- -- -- --
EURINR JAN. FUT. 72.73 72.73 72.23 72.30 -0.45 32588 -4947 45573 3358
SPOT GBPINR 82.05 82.33 81.78 82.15 -1.09 -- -- -- --
GBPINR JAN. FUT. 82.38 82.49 81.94 82.33 -1.16 32927 6683 118483 61989
SPOT JPYINR 59.74 59.93 59.59 59.64 0.16 -- -- -- --
JPYINR JAN. FUT. 59.87 60.04 59.69 59.74 0.12 21948 1031 32221 -2887

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

01/16/2017 12:00 IN Wholesale Prices YoY Dec 3.56% 3.39% 3.15%


01/16/2017 15:30 EC Trade Balance SA Nov -- 22.7b 19.7b

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior


01/17/2017 10:00 JN Industrial Production YoY Nov F -- 4.60%
01/17/2017 15:00 UK CPI YoY Dec 1.40% 1.20%
01/17/2017 15:00 UK House Price Index YoY Nov -- 6.90%
01/17/2017 15:30 EC ZEW Survey Expectations Jan -- 18.1
01/17/2017 19:00 US Empire Manufacturing Jan 8 9

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]