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HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

18 January, 2017

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY Rupee Climbs to 11 day High against American Dollar
Rupee closes at two week high against the US dollar in yesterdays
USDINR JAN FUT. trading session, tracking gains in the Asian currencies markets. This
was the second consecutive sessions when the rupee gained.
SELL AT CMP 68.04 TGT 67.70 SL68.24 The home currency closed at 67.96 a dollar--a level last seen on 30
December, up 0.20% from Monday's close of 68.10. The rupee
MAJOR CURRENCY opened at 68.06 a dollar and touched a high and a low of 67.94 and
68.14, respectively.
Prev. The 10-year bond yield closed at 6.418%, compared to Monday's
Close Chg. % Chg. close of 6.441%.
Close
Dollar Fells On Trumps Comment On Greenback
USDINR 67.960 68.095 -0.135 -0.20%
The dollar index tumbles to near six-week lows overnight, pressured
DXY INDX 100.52 100.33 0.190 0.19% by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's comments showing concern
EURUSD 1.069 1.071 -0.002 -0.18% over the currency's strength. In an interview with the Wall Street
GBPUSD 1.234 1.241 -0.007 -0.56% Journal, Trump said U.S. companies "can't compete with (China)
USDJPY 113.07 112.62 0.450 0.40% now because our currency is strong and it's killing us. The dollar
DG USDINR 68.004 68.027 -0.023 -0.03% index last quoted at 100.52 with small gain of 0.19% after falling to
100.26 on yesterday, its lowest since Dec. 8.
GLOBAL INDICES The dollar added 0.4% to 113.07 yen, after hitting a seven-week
low of 112.60 yen yesterday. The yen has strengthened for seven
straight sessions. The euro last stood at 1.069, slightly below
Prev. 1.07195 hit on Tuesday, its highest level since Dec. 8.
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close In near term, the buck is having support around 97.50 while
SGX NIFTY 8425.0 8408.0 17 0.20% continue to face resistance around 104.
NIFTY 8398.0 8412.8 -15 -0.18% Investors' next focus is on U.S. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen's
SENSEX 27235.7 27288.2 -53 -0.19% speech later in the day.
HANG-SENG 23118.5 22841.0 277 1.21% Pound Climbs, registers Best Day Since 1993 after Mays
Statement
NIKKEI 18779.5 18813.5 -34 -0.18%
The pound jumped the most since 1993 against the dollar after U.K.
SHANGHAI 3115.5 3108.8 7 0.22% Prime Minister Theresa May pledged to give both houses of
S&P INDEX 2267.9 2274.6 -7 -0.30% Parliament a vote on the final Brexit deal she strikes with the
DOW JONES 19826.8 19885.7 -59 -0.30% European Union. The currency strengthened against all major
NASDAQ 5538.7 5574.1 -35 -0.63% counterparts as May made the announcement in a speech laying out
FTSE the governments Brexit strategy, which involves pulling out of the
7220.4 7327.1 -107 -1.46%
EUs single market.
CAC 4859.7 4882.2 -22 -0.46%
Pound rose by about 3% against the dollar yesterday, touching its
DAX 11540.0 11554.7 -15 -0.13% highest level in nearly two weeks and posting its biggest gain, which
goes back to 1998.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

USDINR closed below 20 days moving average, first time since 26th December, indicating short term weakness in trend.
Momentum oscillators RSI given negative divergence and cross over suggesting weakness in the pair.
The pair could head lower towards 67.70, the previous bottom while face resistance at 68.39.
The short term bias turn bearish with downside support at 67.715 and 67.3250 until it surpass 68.3875.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR JAN17 68.04 68.10 67.76 67.89 67.97 68.17 68.31 68.38 Bearish
EURINR JAN17 72.80 72.67 72.06 72.23 72.51 72.96 73.12 73.41 Long Buildup
GBPINR JAN17 82.81 82.69 81.82 82.07 82.44 83.05 83.30 83.67 Long Buildup
JPYINR JAN17 60.27 60.10 59.38 59.57 59.92 60.46 60.64 60.99 Long Buildup

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk


Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.39 67.95 68.39 67.33 68.86 66.07 68.13 68.07 67.93 67.36 67.15
EURINR 72.69 71.67 72.94 70.42 77.49 70.42 72.38 71.56 72.12 73.27 74.22
GBPINR 83.69 82.51 86.00 81.78 100.49 80.89 82.92 83.38 84.32 84.60 88.69
JPYINR 59.72 57.93 60.24 57.25 68.11 55.73 59.54 58.47 59.63 62.24 62.91

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Volume
Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 68.06 68.14 67.94 67.96 -0.14 -- -- -- --
USDINR JAN. FUT. 68.09 68.23 68.02 68.04 -0.17 1808822 -5878 1164907 515742
SPOT EURINR 72.32 72.74 72.30 72.72 0.57 -- -- -- --
EURINR JAN. FUT. 72.39 72.84 72.39 72.80 0.52 38167 6932 54973 9400
SPOT GBPINR 82.13 82.84 82.13 82.70 0.55 -- -- -- --
GBPINR JAN. FUT. 82.32 82.94 82.32 82.81 0.48 33682 1015 105976 -12507
SPOT JPYINR 59.71 60.24 59.69 60.21 0.57 -- -- -- --
JPYINR JAN. FUT. 59.83 60.29 59.75 60.27 0.52 29079 7231 49379 17158

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

01/17/2017 10:00 JN Industrial Production YoY Nov F -- 4.60% 4.60%


01/17/2017 15:00 UK CPI YoY Dec 1.40% 1.60% 1.20%
01/17/2017 15:00 UK House Price Index YoY Nov -- 6.70% 6.90%
01/17/2017 15:30 EC ZEW Survey Expectations Jan -- 23.2 18.1
01/17/2017 19:00 US Empire Manufacturing Jan 8.5 6.5 9.0

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior


01/18/2017 15:00 UK Claimant Count Rate Dec 2.30% 2.30%
01/18/2017 15:00 UK Jobless Claims Change Dec 5.0k 2.4k
01/18/2017 15:00 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Nov 4.80% 4.80%
01/18/2017 15:30 EC CPI YoY Dec F 1.10% 0.60%
01/18/2017 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 13-Jan -- 5.80%
01/18/2017 19:00 US CPI YoY Dec 2.10% 1.70%
01/18/2017 19:45 US Industrial Production MoM Dec 0.70% -0.40%
01/18/2017 19:45 US Manufacturing (SIC) Production Dec 0.50% -0.10%
01/18/2017 20:30 US NAHB Housing Market Index Jan 69 70

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]