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HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

25 November, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


MAJOR CURRENCY
VIEW POINT
Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg. Rupee Drops To Record Low As Foreign Funds Outflow
Close
The rupee fell to its record low level of 68.862 during the intraday
USDINR 68.748 68.565 0.183 0.27%
trade on yesterday on account of foreign fund dumps Indian assets
DXY INDX 101.700 101.50 0.200 0.20%
EURUSD 1.056 1.058 -0.002 -0.17% and buying of the US dollar by the banks and importers.
GBPUSD 1.245 1.247 -0.003 -0.20% In last couple of months, India had given good carry trade which are
USDJPY 113.730 113.05 0.680 0.60% likely to seen unwinding amid fall in Indian govt. bond yield and rise in
DG USDINR 68.804 68.719 0.085 0.12% US bond yield. Since November 1, India's 10-year bond yield plunged
over 60 basis points till date. However, the US 10-year bond yield
GLOBAL INDICES increased to 2.35% against 1.82% on November 1.
However, rupee recovered a bit later to end the day at 68.73 after a
Prev. suspected RBI intervention stemmed the slide in the local currency.
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close The non deliverable one month forward USDINR quoted at 68.89 from
SGX NIFTY 8032.0 8009.0 23 0.43% yesterdays 68.93 suggesting flat to negative opening at domestic
NIFTY 7965.5 8033.3 -68 -0.84% bourse. The overall bias for USDINR Nov. Future remains bullish with
SENSEX 25860.2 26051.8 -192 -0.74% higher side resistance at 69.20 with support at 68.70.
HANG-SENG 22680.0 22608.5 71 0.32% Dollar Bull Run Continues as US Yields resume upward
NIKKEI 18473.9 18333.4 141 0.77% The dollars surge bounced across emerging markets as the case for a
SHANGHAI 3227.3 3241.7 -14 -0.45% succession of U.S. interest- rate hikes strengthened. Shares in
S&P INDEX 2204.7 2204.7 Clsd Clsd emerging markets extended their November slide as benchmark
DOW JONES 19083.2 19083.2 Clsd Clsd gauges from Brazil to Indonesia retreated. Turkeys lira and Indias
NASDAQ 5380.7 5380.7 Clsd Clsd rupee touched record lows versus the greenback, while the Philippine
FTSE 6829.2 6817.7 11 0.17% peso dropped to its weakest level since the global financial crisis.
CAC 4542.6 4529.2 13 0.29% Yen fall to 8 month low against US dollar today on back of US bond
DAX 10689.3 10662.4 27 0.25% yield resumed their rise after yesterdays Thanksgiving Holiday shut in
US. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield US10 rose about 3 basis
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Provisional Rs. In Cr)
points to 2.382% from the previous close on Wednesday. The yen fell
0.3% to 113.73 after hitting low of 113.80. It was on track to fall
Segment 24-Nov-16 23-Nov-16 2.6% on the week against US dollar. Also, Euro nudged down 0.1% to
Equity -1095.10 -674.60 1.0545, poised to lose 0.3% this week.
Debt -2944.33 -644.90 Lifted by higher yields, the dollar index was up 0.2% at 101.860 after
rising to a 13 year high of 102.050 overnight. It was on the way for
a 0.6% gain on the week.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR NOV. FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations
The USDINR November future vindicated our view of bullishness and made high 68.84.
The pair sustained above long term moving averages and forming higher highs and lows indicating medium term bullishness. MACD
crossed MACD Average Upward near zero line indicating bullishness.
The pair would continue trading with bullish bias with higher side resistance at 69.20 and support 68.25.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR 68.71 68.71 68.31 68.44 68.58 68.84 68.97 69.10 Bullish
EURINR 72.72 72.59 72.02 72.17 72.44 72.87 73.01 73.29 Consolidation
GBPINR 85.75 85.60 84.75 84.98 85.37 85.98 86.22 86.60 Bullish
JPYINR 60.85 60.89 59.94 60.27 60.56 61.18 61.51 61.80 Bearish

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk


Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low

USDINR 68.24 67.54 68.86 66.34 68.86 66.07 68.37 67.32 66.98 67.02 67.11
EURINR 73.21 72.07 75.64 72.07 77.49 70.29 72.60 73.15 73.85 74.30 74.80
GBPINR 84.76 83.83 85.90 80.89 101.87 80.89 84.93 83.49 83.84 86.01 90.75
JPYINR 62.80 61.40 66.11 60.61 68.11 53.86 61.50 62.96 64.17 64.70 63.11

CURRENCY MOVEMENT

Open Chg. In
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Chg. in OI Volume
Interest Volume
SPOT USDINR 68.76 68.86 68.59 68.75 0.18 -- -- -- --
USDINR NOV. FUT. 68.73 68.84 68.57 68.71 0.15 3457622 23881 1628589 -920005
SPOT EURINR 72.32 72.74 72.28 72.72 -0.16 -- -- -- --
EURINR NOV. FUT. 72.44 72.73 72.31 72.72 -0.17 18019 -3250 52433 15997
SPOT GBPINR 85.22 85.90 85.22 85.85 0.91 -- -- -- --
GBPINR NOV. FUT. 85.31 85.83 85.21 85.75 0.80 22232 -957 61758 17063
SPOT JPYINR 60.77 61.07 60.61 60.85 -0.92 -- -- -- --
JPYINR NOV. FUT. 61.10 61.22 60.60 60.85 -0.90 18742 -301 45820 24942

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior


11/24/2016 15:00 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase Oct 38.8K 40.9K 38.7K

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED


Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
11/25/2016 15:00 UK GDP QoQ 3Q P 0.50% 0.50%
11/25/2016 15:00 UK GDP YoY 3Q P 2.30% 2.30%
11/25/2016 15:00 UK Exports QoQ 3Q P 1.00% -1.00%
11/25/2016 15:00 UK Imports QoQ 3Q P -0.10% 1.30%
11/25/2016 19:00 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Oct P 0.20% 0.10%
11/25/2016 20:15 US Markit US Services PMI Nov P 54.8 54.8

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]