Anda di halaman 1dari 6


25 November, 2016


Close Chg. % Chg. Rupee Drops To Record Low As Foreign Funds Outflow
The rupee fell to its record low level of 68.862 during the intraday
USDINR 68.748 68.565 0.183 0.27%
trade on yesterday on account of foreign fund dumps Indian assets
DXY INDX 101.700 101.50 0.200 0.20%
EURUSD 1.056 1.058 -0.002 -0.17% and buying of the US dollar by the banks and importers.
GBPUSD 1.245 1.247 -0.003 -0.20% In last couple of months, India had given good carry trade which are
USDJPY 113.730 113.05 0.680 0.60% likely to seen unwinding amid fall in Indian govt. bond yield and rise in
DG USDINR 68.804 68.719 0.085 0.12% US bond yield. Since November 1, India's 10-year bond yield plunged
over 60 basis points till date. However, the US 10-year bond yield
GLOBAL INDICES increased to 2.35% against 1.82% on November 1.
However, rupee recovered a bit later to end the day at 68.73 after a
Prev. suspected RBI intervention stemmed the slide in the local currency.
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close The non deliverable one month forward USDINR quoted at 68.89 from
SGX NIFTY 8032.0 8009.0 23 0.43% yesterdays 68.93 suggesting flat to negative opening at domestic
NIFTY 7965.5 8033.3 -68 -0.84% bourse. The overall bias for USDINR Nov. Future remains bullish with
SENSEX 25860.2 26051.8 -192 -0.74% higher side resistance at 69.20 with support at 68.70.
HANG-SENG 22680.0 22608.5 71 0.32% Dollar Bull Run Continues as US Yields resume upward
NIKKEI 18473.9 18333.4 141 0.77% The dollars surge bounced across emerging markets as the case for a
SHANGHAI 3227.3 3241.7 -14 -0.45% succession of U.S. interest- rate hikes strengthened. Shares in
S&P INDEX 2204.7 2204.7 Clsd Clsd emerging markets extended their November slide as benchmark
DOW JONES 19083.2 19083.2 Clsd Clsd gauges from Brazil to Indonesia retreated. Turkeys lira and Indias
NASDAQ 5380.7 5380.7 Clsd Clsd rupee touched record lows versus the greenback, while the Philippine
FTSE 6829.2 6817.7 11 0.17% peso dropped to its weakest level since the global financial crisis.
CAC 4542.6 4529.2 13 0.29% Yen fall to 8 month low against US dollar today on back of US bond
DAX 10689.3 10662.4 27 0.25% yield resumed their rise after yesterdays Thanksgiving Holiday shut in
US. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield US10 rose about 3 basis
points to 2.382% from the previous close on Wednesday. The yen fell
0.3% to 113.73 after hitting low of 113.80. It was on track to fall
Segment 24-Nov-16 23-Nov-16 2.6% on the week against US dollar. Also, Euro nudged down 0.1% to
Equity -1095.10 -674.60 1.0545, poised to lose 0.3% this week.
Debt -2944.33 -644.90 Lifted by higher yields, the dollar index was up 0.2% at 101.860 after
rising to a 13 year high of 102.050 overnight. It was on the way for
a 0.6% gain on the week.



Technical Observations
The USDINR November future vindicated our view of bullishness and made high 68.84.
The pair sustained above long term moving averages and forming higher highs and lows indicating medium term bullishness. MACD
crossed MACD Average Upward near zero line indicating bullishness.
The pair would continue trading with bullish bias with higher side resistance at 69.20 and support 68.25.



Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR 68.71 68.71 68.31 68.44 68.58 68.84 68.97 69.10 Bullish
EURINR 72.72 72.59 72.02 72.17 72.44 72.87 73.01 73.29 Consolidation
GBPINR 85.75 85.60 84.75 84.98 85.37 85.98 86.22 86.60 Bullish
JPYINR 60.85 60.89 59.94 60.27 60.56 61.18 61.51 61.80 Bearish

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low

USDINR 68.24 67.54 68.86 66.34 68.86 66.07 68.37 67.32 66.98 67.02 67.11
EURINR 73.21 72.07 75.64 72.07 77.49 70.29 72.60 73.15 73.85 74.30 74.80
GBPINR 84.76 83.83 85.90 80.89 101.87 80.89 84.93 83.49 83.84 86.01 90.75
JPYINR 62.80 61.40 66.11 60.61 68.11 53.86 61.50 62.96 64.17 64.70 63.11


Open Chg. In
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Chg. in OI Volume
Interest Volume
SPOT USDINR 68.76 68.86 68.59 68.75 0.18 -- -- -- --
USDINR NOV. FUT. 68.73 68.84 68.57 68.71 0.15 3457622 23881 1628589 -920005
SPOT EURINR 72.32 72.74 72.28 72.72 -0.16 -- -- -- --
EURINR NOV. FUT. 72.44 72.73 72.31 72.72 -0.17 18019 -3250 52433 15997
SPOT GBPINR 85.22 85.90 85.22 85.85 0.91 -- -- -- --
GBPINR NOV. FUT. 85.31 85.83 85.21 85.75 0.80 22232 -957 61758 17063
SPOT JPYINR 60.77 61.07 60.61 60.85 -0.92 -- -- -- --
JPYINR NOV. FUT. 61.10 61.22 60.60 60.85 -0.90 18742 -301 45820 24942



Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

11/24/2016 15:00 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase Oct 38.8K 40.9K 38.7K


Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
11/25/2016 15:00 UK GDP QoQ 3Q P 0.50% 0.50%
11/25/2016 15:00 UK GDP YoY 3Q P 2.30% 2.30%
11/25/2016 15:00 UK Exports QoQ 3Q P 1.00% -1.00%
11/25/2016 15:00 UK Imports QoQ 3Q P -0.10% 1.30%
11/25/2016 19:00 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Oct P 0.20% 0.10%
11/25/2016 20:15 US Markit US Services PMI Nov P 54.8 54.8


Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: Email:


I/We, Dilip Parmar and Vinay Rajani, MBA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer (s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.

Any position in Instruments NO

This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information
obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or
correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not
intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.
This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other
jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HDFC Securities Ltd or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement
within such jurisdiction.
If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or
published for any purposes without prior written approval of HDFC Securities Ltd.
Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in
securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.
It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HDFC Securities Ltd may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this
mail and/or its attachments.
HDFC Securities and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be
engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or
lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.
HDFC Securities Ltd, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report,
including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.
HDFC Securities Ltd and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or
other deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.
HDFC Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve
HDFC Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing
or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business.
HDFC Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HDFC
Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or
brokerage service transactions. HDFC Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any
compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
This report has been prepared by the PCG team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may
be contrary with those of the other Research teams (Institutional, Retail) of HDFC Securities Ltd.

"HDFC Securities Ltd. is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.