HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

03 November, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

MAJOR CURRENCY VIEW POINT
Prev.
Close
Close
Chg. % Chg. RUPEE IGNORES GLOBAL JITTER, ENDS FLAT
USDINR 66.720 66.716 0.004 0.01% The rupee on Wednesday closed at 66.7200, marginally lower than
its previous close of 66.716, after having weakened to an intraday
DXY INDX 97.196 97.428 -0.232 -0.24%
low of 66.8650 during the session as a poll showed Republican
EURUSD 1.112 1.109 0.003 0.27% nominee Donald Trump lead his Democratic counterpart Hillary
GBPUSD 1.233 1.23 0.003 0.24% Clinton in the US presidential race for the first time in months.
USDJPY 102.930 103.38 -0.450 -0.44% The local currency opened at 66.7950 on Wednesday and proceeded
DG USDINR 66.975 66.948 0.027 0.04% to weaken considerably before recovering. The initial fall was in line
with losses in local equities and other Asian currencies, whereas the
GLOBAL INDICES recovery was due to adequate dollar supply by banks.
In the forward market, premium for dollar firmed up on fresh paying
Prev. pressure from corporates. The benchmark six-month premium for
Close Chg. % Chg. April edged higher at 175.5-177.5 paise from 173.5-175.5 paise .
Close
SGX NIFTY 8514.0 8538.0 -24 -0.28% The 10-year benchmark yield closed at 6.815% on Wednesday,
largely unchanged from its previous close. The benchmark yield has
NIFTY 8514.0 8626.3 -112 -1.30%
weakened considerably from its low of 6.67% on October 5.
SENSEX 27527.2 27876.6 -349 -1.25%
Spot USDINR is having resistance around 67.07 while 66.50 acts as
HANG-SENG 22778.5 22810.5 -32 -0.14% support in near term.
NIKKEI 17134.7 17442.4 -308 -1.76% Dollar Slumps After Status Quo by Fed
SHANGHAI 3105.3 3102.7 3 0.08% The dollar marked losses today as growing concerns about next
S&P INDEX 2097.9 2111.7 -14 -0.65% week's U.S. Presidential Election overshadowed the Federal
DOW JONES 17959.6 18037.1 -77 -0.43% Reserve's latest review where policy markers signalled they were on
NASDAQ 5105.6 5153.6 -48 -0.93% track to hike rates next month. However, the dollar rebounds
FTSE 6845.4 6917.1 -72 -1.04% against yen with markets in Japan closed for a public holiday, after
plunging as much as 1% overnight to its lowest since Oct. 10.
CAC 4414.7 4470.3 -56 -1.24%
DAX 10370.9 10526.2 -155 -1.47% Overnight, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, but
policy makers said the case for a rate hike has strengthened. FOMC
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Provisional Rs. In Cr) members voted 8 to 2 to maintain interest rates in a range of 0.25
to 0.5%. "The committee judges that the case for an increase in the
federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but decided, for the
Segment 02-Nov-16 01-Nov-16 time being, to wait for some further evidence of further progress
Equity -95.99 -867.69 toward its objectives," the Fed said in its policy statement. It was
the first time the Fed qualified such a statement to say that only
Debt 312.23 -1105.49 "some" further evidence was needed.
The dollar index last traded at 97.15 trading below yesterdays low
97.178, its lowest since Oct. 11.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

USDINR NOV. FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations
The USDINR Nov. Future placed well below short term moving average of 20 SDMA.
It is getting resistance around 67.15, the falling trend line adjoining recent tops.
MACD has been placed near zero line with MACD moving above MACD average suggesting consolidation.
The bias remains bearish till the pair surpass the falling trend line resistance. However, the downside also limited to 66.50 in near
term.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

USDINR 66.97 67.01 66.77 66.86 66.92 67.07 67.16 67.22
EURINR 74.26 74.28 73.86 74.01 74.13 74.41 74.56 74.69
GBPINR 82.41 82.30 81.85 81.97 82.19 82.53 82.64 82.86
JPYINR 64.80 64.72 64.31 64.42 64.61 64.91 65.02 65.20

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low

USDINR 66.93 66.76 66.96 66.40 68.79 65.46 66.78 66.74 66.80 66.97 67.09
EURINR 73.08 72.66 75.15 72.66 77.49 70.24 73.27 73.62 74.49 74.70 74.80
GBPINR 82.01 80.89 87.44 80.89 101.87 80.89 81.56 81.88 85.29 87.43 91.88
JPYINR 64.46 63.42 66.78 63.42 68.11 53.32 63.81 64.15 65.00 65.15 62.77

CURRENCY MOVEMENT

Open Chg. In
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Chg. in OI Volume
Interest Volume
SPOT USDINR 66.80 66.87 66.71 66.72 -0.02 -- -- -- --
USDINR NOV. FUT. 67.05 67.11 66.96 66.97 -0.02 1583152 135134 776447 241005
SPOT EURINR 73.91 74.14 73.87 73.97 0.52 -- -- -- --
EURINR NOV. FUT. 74.26 74.43 74.16 74.26 0.52 51442 9657 45038 8668
SPOT GBPINR 81.66 82.07 81.66 82.05 0.32 -- -- -- --
GBPINR NOV. FUT. 82.11 82.42 82.08 82.41 0.30 52640 -2455 52525 -7303
SPOT JPYINR 64.32 64.55 64.31 64.54 0.99 -- -- -- --
JPYINR NOV. FUT. 64.56 64.83 64.53 64.80 0.93 34176 5632 49677 20386

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

11/02/2016 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct F 53.3 53.5 53.3
11/02/2016 15:00 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Oct 51.8 52.6 52.3
11/02/2016 16:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 28-Oct -- -1.20% -4.10%
11/02/2016 17:45 US ADP Employment Change Oct 165k 147k 154k
11/02/2016 19:15 US ISM New York Oct -- 49.2 49.6
11/02/2016 23:30 US FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 2-Nov 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
11/02/2016 23:30 US FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 2-Nov 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

ECONOMIC EVENTS TODAY

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
11/03/2016 10:30 IN Nikkei India PMI Services Oct -- 52
11/03/2016 15:00 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Oct 52.5 52.6
11/03/2016 15:30 EC Unemployment Rate Sep 10.00% 10.10%
11/03/2016 17:00 US Challenger Job Cuts YoY Oct -- -24.70%
11/03/2016 17:30 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 3-Nov 0.25% 0.25%
11/03/2016 17:30 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Nov 435b 435b
11/03/2016 17:30 UK BOE Corporate Bond Target Nov 10b 10b
11/03/2016 18:00 US Nonfarm Productivity 3Q P 2.10% -0.60%
11/03/2016 18:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 29-Oct 256k 258k
11/03/2016 18:00 US Continuing Claims 22-Oct 2043k 2039k
11/03/2016 19:15 US Markit US Services PMI Oct F 54.8 54.8
11/03/2016 19:30 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Oct 56 57.1
11/03/2016 19:30 US Factory Orders Sep 0.20% 0.20%
11/03/2016 19:30 US Durable Goods Orders Sep F -0.10% -0.10%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]