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Course of Study:
(CCJ19) Doing Criminology
Title of work:
The science game; an introduction to research in the behavioural and social
sciences, 7th ed. (2007)
Section:
The Science Game (Chapter 4, pp. 76-79) Before-and-After Method pp. 76--79
Author/editor of work:
Agnew, Neil McK.; Pyke, Sandra W.
Author of section:
Sandra W. Pyke, Neil McK Agnew
Name of Publisher:
Oxford University Press
Before-and- fter ethod
+
Onset Water Improved
of softener complexion
rash installed
76
Before-and-Mter Method 77
with water treated in the family's new water softener, stopped eating so
much juhk between meals, finished some biochemical growing up, been
exposed to more sunshine, or gotten used to the rash so that even a small
improvement looked great. But Hornet Honey would be only too happy to
take credit for the improvement, and probably in such a situation, most
of us would be quite content to give the salve a testimonial, even though, as
we have just indicated, it is only one of many suspects. Many medical
treatments parade as cures, but are likewise one of many suspects. It
requires a comprehensive series of experiments of the kind to be discussed
shortly to obtain durable information about the adequacy of the supposed
treatment.
This before-and-after method pretends to be scientific but would not
be regarded so by most scientists because too many suspects always remain,
even after we have ruled out many others. Suspects always remain, so
whether a method passes as scientific is a relative question. Four main types
of suspects, or rogues, challenge us in our attempts to sort fact from fancy,
in our attempts to locate or manufacture stable packages of information
(Campbell & Stanley, 1966).
The following medical example helps us identify these four trouble-
makers. After exposing them we will consider various tactics we can use to
minimize the mischief they do.
A physician has been given the job of evaluating a new drug for treating
depressed patients in a hospital. He examines the patients before the
treatment (0 1) and after the treatment (0 2 ). The treatment (Xd) consists of
a six-week period during which two of the new pills are taken three times
a day. After the treatment period the doctor decides that most of the
patients have improved.
_t / ' '
~ /--- '
~ .....
,..--
(a.': ,\Xt,} . , X2, . . . (XJ,} ... , X7, ... , Xn 1,
I
02;'
\ ..... _,/ '.....,_ .... ' ,_, '
The physician is very pleased and writes an article for a medical journal. A
scientist reads the article and writes to the physician, stating that there are
at least four other explanations why the patients may have improved, none
of which were considered by the physician-four classes of events that
could have accounted for the shift in the dependent variable, in the change
' ... -' to 16
from ,'()~', , __2',, The four suspect types are outlined in Table 4-l.
78 Before-and-After Method
forget that time alone may account for changes in 0 2 So this is a second
reason why conclusions drawn using the before-and-after method are
error-prone.