Carnival Game Report

Milk n Cookies

Lauren Champlin
Anna Jackson
Jordan Olszewski
Sarah Tackett

10A

Mrs. Dewey
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Milk n Cookies Game Report
Introduction:

The game we created, Milk n Cookies, includes two parts; the first part being a spinner

cut into four segments, and the second part being a skee ball set. Taking into account that skee

ball is a skill-based game, we made it so that the player needs to be blindfolded to play, so that

the outcome will be completely random and not based on the players skill. The player will first

spin the spinner. The result of the players spin determines if they get to play the next stage of the

game. If their spin lands on a picture of an Oreo, they take their turn at blindly rolling a ball up

the ramp, hoping it lands in either the center ring or the next smallest ring. If the ball lands in

either of those two rings, they win the game. If the ball lands in the third ring or anywhere

outside the rings, they lose the game. Any winners receive a pack of three Oreos, while losers

lose the $0.50 required to play the game.

Game Instructions:

Stage 1:

1. The game will cost $0.50 to play.

2. To begin the game, spin the spinner. If it lands on a line, spin again.
3. If the spinner lands on either pictures of the Oreos, continue to the next stage of the game.

4. If the spinner lands on the pictures of the other two cookies, your turn at the game ends.

Stage 2:

1. If your spin landed on a picture of Oreos, you will play the next stage of the game, the Milk n
Cookies skee ball set.

2. First, put on the blindfold.

3. Next, take the ball from the white container and roll it up the ramp, aiming to dunk the cookie
into the milk.
4. If your ball, the cookie, makes it into either the center white ring, the milk, or the next blue ring,
you win the game. If it lands in the last ring or anywhere outside the rings, you lose the game.

5. If you won the game, congrats! Take a bag of 3 Oreos from the box!

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Theoretical Probability:

In order to analyze our game, we started with finding the area of the skee ball board, the

area of each ring, and the area of the space outside of the rings. A diagram of the skee ball board

and each of the areas is pictured below in Figure 1. After we determined of the areas on the

board, we were able to find the probability of landing the ball in each of the spaces. The sample

space for this game is { PW , ,

PW
PW , W
P }. The probabilities are pictured below

in Figure 2. Once we knew the probability of landing the ball in each of the rings, we were able

to use this information to find the overall probability of the player winning the game. Figure 3

below shows the tree diagram we drew to display the probability of winning or losing the game.

The probability distribution chart and the expected value are shown below in Table 1 and Figure

4 respectively.

A = 4.25
D B = 10.25
C C = 16.25
B Total Area = (19.75)2 = 390. 0625
A AreaA = ( 2.1252) = 14.1863
AreaB = ( 5.1252) - AreaA = 68.3296
AreaC = ( 8.1252) - ( 5.1252) = 124.8783
AreaD = (19.752) - ( 8.1252) = 182.6683

Figure 1. Diagram and Area of Board

Figure 1 above shows a diagram of the skee ball board with the rings labeled A, B, C and

the space outside of the rings labeled D. It also shows the work done to find the area of each

space.

P(A) = (AreaA)/(Total Area) = 0.0364

P(B) = (AreaB)/(Total Area) = 0.1752
P(C) = (AreaC)/(Total Area) = 0.3201
P(D) = (AreaD)/(Total Area) = 0.4683

Figure 2. Probability of Landing in the Rings

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Figure 2 above shows the work done to calculate the theoretical probability of landing the

skee ball in each of the spaces on the board.

Figure 3. Tree Diagram

This tree diagram shows the theoretical probabilities of the two stages of our game. The

first branch represents the spinner, with playing and not playing skee ball each having

probabilities of 0.5. The second branch represents the probabilities of winning the game and

getting Oreos. There is a probability of zero because if you do not play the skee ball game, it is

impossible to win the Oreos. The theoretical probability of the player winning the game is

0.1058, making the theoretical probability of the player losing the game 0.8942.

Table 1
Probability Distribution Chart
$ 0.5 0.35

P($) 0.8942 0.1058

Table 1 shows the probability distribution chart for the theoretical probability for this

game. If the player loses the game, us as the owners make the $0.50 that the player paid to play

the game. If the player wins, they receive the bag of three Oreos, which costs $0.15. So if the

player does win, we as the owners still make $0.35.

E($) = (0.5)(0.8942) + (0.35)(0.1058)

= $0.48

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Figure 4. Expected Value for the Theoretical Probability

The expected value is used to determine how much money we can make per game in the

long run. It is found by multiplying each of the possible amounts we could make by the

probability of gaining that amount. After each amount is multiplied by its probability, those are

added together to give the expected value. Therefore, based on the theoretical probability, in the

long run, our game can make $0.48 every time someone plays.

Relative Frequencies:

The results of our fifty trials from actually playing the game are recorded in Appendix A.

The relative frequency of the player winning the game in the fifty trials was 0.06. The expected

value from these results is calculated in Figure 5 and the probability distribution for these results

is recorded in Table 2 below. A description of our game simulation and its setup is recorded

below in Figure 6, while the results of the simulation is recorded in Appendix B. The relative

frequency of the player winning the game in the 500 trials done in the simulation is 0.15. The

probability distribution chart and the expected value for the 500 trials are recorded below in

Table 5 and Figure 7.

Table 2
Probability Distribution Chart for the 50 Trials
$ 0.5 0.35

P($) 0.94 0.06

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Table 2 shows the probability distribution chart for the relative frequency from our fifty

trials. The relative frequency that we, the owners, made $0.35 is 0.06, and the relative frequency

that we made $0.50 is 0.94.

E($) = (0.5)(0.94) + (0.35)(0.06)

= $0.49

Figure 5. Expected Value for the 50 Trials

The expected value for our 50 trials is $0.49. That means that in the long run, our game

will make $0.49 every time someone plays. This is $0.01 more than the expected value we

calculated for the theoretical probability.

randSeed(xxxx)
randInt(1,2,100)
randInt(00,99,100)

Figure 6. Simulation Setup

The setup of our simulation for 500 trials is shown in Figure 6, above. To decide whether

skee ball would be played, the random seed function was used before randomly generating the

numbers 1 and 2 to represent playing and not playing. Then, a Monte Carlo method was used for

the simulation, with circle A represented by the numbers 0-3, circle B with 4-21, circle C with

22-53, and area D with 54-99. These number ranges were chosen by rounding the probabilities to

the nearest whole percent. One hundred numbers were generated using the random integer

function, and again, a new random seed was used before each trial. Then, the numbers were

counted and put into the table in Appendix B.

Table 3
Probability Distribution Chart for 500 Trials
$ 0.50 0.35

P($) 0.85 0.15

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Table 3 above shows the probability distribution chart for the relative frequency from the

500 trials done in the simulation. The relative frequency that we, the owners, made $0.35 is 0.15,

and the relative frequency that we made $0.50 is 0.85.

E($) = (0.5)(0.85) + (0.35)(0.15)

= $0.48

Figure 7. Expected Value for 500 Trials

The expected value for our 500 trials done in the simulation is $0.48. That means that in

the long run, our game will make $0.48 every time someone plays. This expected value is the

same as the expected value from the theoretical probabilities.

The final expected value we calculated was for the JAVA program, shown in Appendix C.

A sample of the results for the JAVA program is shown in Appendix D. The program uses a for

loop and arrays to run and record the results of the 5,000 trials. Then two more for loops are used

to count the totals for the spinner and the skee ball results. After that the probabilities are

calculated, and from those probabilities the expected value is calculated. The final part of the

program is where the summary is printed out. When the program was executed, the resulting

expected value was $0.21, occasionally $0.22. This is around $0.27 less than the expected values

for the theoretical probability, 50 trials, and 500 trials. The reason for this is the Law of Large

Numbers. The Law of Large Numbers states that event E with probability p, if repeated enough

times, the relative frequency will approach p.

Group Members Roles:

Every member played a role in completing this project, although there were a few

complications due to the fact that Sarah was out of the country for the majority of the project.

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Sarah played a part in the original designing of the game, and she also did the math for the areas

and probabilities of the game board while she was away. Anna, Jordan, and Lauren all worked

together to build the spinner and the skee ball set. Anna and Jordan ran the 50 trials. Anna

created the JAVA program and ran the 5,000 trials. Jordan created the weighted tree diagram, and

she designed and ran a simulation for 500 trials. Lauren wrote the game instructions and the final

report, and she calculated the expected values.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, based on our results from our theoretical probability, relative frequencies,

and the JAVA program with the Law of Large Numbers, our game in the long run can make

anywhere from $0.21 to $0.49 every time someone plays. Considering that the prize for winning

the game is three Oreos, with the cost being $0.15, whether the player wins or loses the game, we

still make money from every turn. Investing in our game would guarantee that you gain money

in the long run, and it is unlikely that you would risk losing any. We believe that the overall

aesthetic and idea behind the game is something that would draw players in. The game is not too

expensive to play and there is a chance to win a fun, tasty prize, while you as the owner will

likely always be making money.

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Appendix A - Results of 50 Trials

Spinner
Trial Number
Player Circle
Oreo Choclate/Sprinkles

Anna J. 1 *

Anna J. 2 *

Anna J. 3 * C

Anna J. 4 * B

Anna J. 5 * D

Anna J. 6 *

Anna J. 7 *

Anna J. 8 * B

Anna J. 9 * C

Anna J. 10 * D

Anna J. 11 * B

Anna J. 12 *

Anna J. 13 *

Anna J. 14 * C

Anna J. 15 * D

Anna J. 16 *

Anna J. 17 *

Anna J. 18 * D

Anna J. 19 * D

Anna J. 20 * C

Anna J. 21 *

Anna J. 22 *

Spinner
Trial Number
Player Circle
Oreo Choclate/Sprinkles

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Anna J. 24 *

Anna J. 25 * C

Jordan O. 26 *

Jordan O. 27 * C

Jordan O. 28 *

Jordan O. 29 *

Jordan O. 30 *

Jordan O. 31 * D

Jordan O. 32 *

Jordan O. 33 *

Jordan O. 34 * C

Jordan O. 35 *

Jordan O. 36 *

Jordan O. 37 * C

Jordan O. 38 * C

Jordan O. 39 * C

Jordan O. 40 * C

Jordan O. 41 *

Jordan O. 42 *

Jordan O. 43 *

Jordan O. 44 *

Jordan O. 45 * C

Jordan O. 46 *

Jordan O. 47 * D

Spinner
Trial Number
Player Circle
Oreo Choclate/Sprinkles

Jordan O. 48 * C

Jordan O. 49 *

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Jordan O. 50 *

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Appendix B - Results of 500 Simulated Trials

Trial
Circle A Circle B Circle C Area D Total Plays
Numbers
1-100 1 7 29 20 57
101-200 4 5 17 23 49
201-300 0 6 20 27 53
301-400 2 2 19 35 58
401-500 3 12 20 22 56
Totals 10 31 105 127 273

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Appendix C - JAVA Program

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Appendix D - JAVA Program Results

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