Basic Terms of Probability

Experiment: a process by which an outcome is obtained, i.e.,

rolling a die.
Trials: repetition of experiment, i.e. rolling a die many times
Outcome: result of each trial, i.e. head appears on flipping a
coin
Sample space: The set S of all possible outcomes of an experiment.

i.e. the sample space for a die roll is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Sample Point: A sample point is an element of a sample space.

Event: Any subset E of the sample space. i.e. Let

E1 = An even number is rolled.

E2 = A number less than three is rolled.

probability : The probability of an event is a measure of the likelihood that the

event will occur.

If an experiments outcomes are equally likely to occur, then the probability of an

event E is the number of outcomes in E divided by the number of outcomes in the
Sample Space.

P(E) = n(E)/n(S

Odds: Odds in favor of an event E are the number of ways the

event can occur compared to the number of ways the event
can fail.
Probability can be found theoretically (we use theory) or empirically.
Empirical means to scientifically do each experiment and record the
observations
conditional probability: The probability of some event A, assuming event B. Conditional
probability is written P(A|B), and is read "the probability of A, given B"
data set: A sample and the associated data points
joint distribution: Given two random variables X and Y, the joint distribution of X and Y is
the probability distribution of X and Y together
joint probability: The probability of two events occurring together. The joint probability
of A and B is written P(A intersection B) or P(A,B)
 marginal distribution: Given two jointly distributed random variables X and Y, the marginal
distribution of X is simply the probability distribution of X ignoring information about Y
marginal probability: The probability of an event, ignoring any information about other
events. The marginal probability of A is written P (A). Contrast with conditional probability
mean
1. The expected value of a random variable
2. The arithmetic mean is the average of a set of numbers, or the sum of the values divided by
the number of values
Probability density: Describes the probability in a continuous probability distribution. For
example, you can't say that the probability of a man being six feet tall is 20%, but you can
say he has 20% of chances of being between five and six feet tall. Probability density is
given by a probability density function.
probability density function: Gives the probability distribution for a continuous random
variable
probability distribution: A function that gives the probability of all elements in a given
space: see List of probability distributions
random variable: A measurable function on a probability space, often real-valued. The
distribution function of a random variable gives the probability of different results. We can
also derive the mean and variance of a random variable

Equally Likely Events: When there is no reason to expect the happening of one event in
preference to the other, then the events are known equally likely events. For
example; when an unbiased coin is tossed the chances of getting a head or a tail are the
same.

Exhaustive Events: All the possible outcomes of the experiments are known as
exhaustive events. For example; in throwing a die there are 6 exhaustive events in a
trial.

Favorable Events: The outcomes which make necessary the happening of an event in a
trial are called favorable events. For example; if two dice are thrown, the number of
favorable events of getting a sum 5 is four, i.e., (1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2) and (4, 1).

Additive Law of Probability: If E1 and E2 be any two events (not necessarily mutually
exclusive events), then P(E1 E2) = P(E1) + P(E2) - P(E1 E2)

Probability function: a function giving the probability for each outcome.

Random variable: a random numerical outcome

A discrete sample space is one that is listable, it can be either finite or infinite.
 The complement of an event is the event not occurring. The probability that Event A
will not occur is denoted by P(A').

Two events are mutually exclusive or disjoint if they cannot occur at the same
time.The probability that Events A and B both occur is the probability of
the intersection of A and B. The probability of the intersection of Events A and B is
denoted by P(A B). If Events A and B are mutually exclusive, P(A B) = 0.

The probability that Events A or B occur is the probability of the union of A and B.
The probability of the union of Events A and B is denoted by P(A B) .

If the occurrence of Event A changes the probability of Event B, then Events A and B
aredependent. On the other hand, if the occurrence of Event A does not change the
probability of Event B, then Events A and B are independent.

Rule of Multiplication The probability that Events A and B both occur is equal to
the probability that Event A occurs times the probability that Event B occurs, given
that A has occurred. P(A B) = P(A) P(B|A)

Random variables can be discrete or continuous.

Discrete. Within a range of numbers, discrete variables can take on only certain
values. Suppose, for example, that we flip a coin and count the number of heads. The
 number of heads will be a value between zero and plus infinity. Within that range,
though, the number of heads can be only certain values. For example, the number of
heads can only be a whole number, not a fraction. Therefore, the number of heads is
a discrete variable. And because the number of heads results from a random process
- flipping a coin - it is a discrete random variable.

Continuous. Continuous variables, in contrast, can take on any value within a range
of values. For example, suppose we randomly select an individual from a population.
Then, we measure the age of that person. In theory, his/her age can take
on any value between zero and plus infinity, so age is a continuous variable. In this
example, the age of the person selected is determined by a chance event; so, in this
example, age is a continuous random variable.

A probability distribution is a table or an equation that links each possible value

that a random variable can assume with its probability of occurrence.

Cumulative Probability A cumulative probability refers to the probability that the

value of a random variable falls within a specified range. Frequently, cumulative
probabilities refer to the probability that a random variable is less than or equal to a
specified value.
 Mutually Exclusive: Two events are mutually exclusive if they have no sample
points in common.

Frequency Count: A frequency count is a measure of the number of times that an event
occurs.

Frequency Table: When a table shows frequency counts for a categorical variable, it
is called a frequency table Below, the bar chart and the frequency table display the
same data.


What is 'Subjective Probability'

Subjective probability is a probability derived from an individual's personal judgment about
whether a specific outcome is likely to occur. Subjective probabilities contain no formal
calculations and only reflect the subject's opinions and past experience.